Jake I take back everything I ever said about you. You are awesome. :beer
Fdjake,
“I didn’t know PAULSON’s job description was the ability to see the FUTURE and PREDICT ECONOMIC EVENTS???”
Of course not, however, there WERE people predicting this would happen based on trends… So you would think that Paulson et al would at least have a heads-up on all of this…
“But don’t let that stop you from QUOTING from a list of the very ECONOMISTS that ALSO never saw the COMPLETE LOCKUP of credit markets coming…”
Now that’s not WHY I posted the list, now is it? The list was comprised of economists OPPOSED to TARP, which was SUPPOSED to REMOVE the toxic assets to UNFREEZE the credit lock-up…
“A FED CHIEF’s JOB is FISCAL POLICY…Not ECONOMIC FORECASTING”
I can’t believe you wrote this…
“The TARP OUTCOME was SUCCESSFUL…We have an OPERATING BANKING SYSTEM and an economy that is showing signs of life directly because of that program…”
It was EXTREMELY successful… for the BANKS and AUTO companies who GOT our BORROWED money, are LENDING IT BACK to us WITH interest, and get to walk away from it all AFTER ONLY MONTHS, WE get to live with it for GENERATIONS… I love this quote from the below article in the Economist talking about why Bernanke should stay…
“Reappointing Mr Bernanke might thus appear akin to paying a plumber all over again for repairing pipes that he fitted after they have flooded your home. Nor, once the crisis struck, was he the only central banker to prove handy with monetary plunger and wrench. The leaders of several other rich-world central banks have also acted boldly.”
http://www.economist.com/opinion/displayStory.cfm?story_id=14303777
I would only add that analogy that it would be like ADDING that payment to a credit card you CAN NEVER PAY BACK, and that you will be paying on in perpetuity for SOMEONE ELSE’S MISTAKES…
Now, onto your Black Swan Event BS in a separate post to break it up…
First off, I’ve never heard of the Black Sawn Event concept before, but after doing some reading on it… The Black Swan Event was apparently an idea (which there are people who disagree with the concept) written about in 2007, by Nicholas Taleb, the year this all started, or the recession started…
What is very funny to me is how you try to portray that you somehow had knowledge of this before just writing about it…
My proof of this is simply the search bar on this site… During everyone’s discussions / criticisms / banking / Fed. etc. over what to do for OVER a year on this subject (i.e. - worst recession since the great depression), do you know how many times Fdjake has brought this concept up?..
- 0 -
According to the search bar, the ONLY other investor on this site to EVER bring this concept up was RookieNYC ONE TIME… So it’s applicability to the discussion is NEW after a YEAR of discussing the current situation… Before yesterday, Fdjake has NEVER brought the concept up on this site EVER… so to try and play it off as if it was some knowledge you had that others didn’t is laughable at best…
“There’s a TERM for an event like we had…You OBVIOUSLY have NEVER heard of it or understand it…It COMPLETELY explains WHY YOU believe WHAT YOU believe… It’s called a BLACK SWAN EVENT”
What is even MORE ironic and a bit humorous is that the AUTHOR of the concept, Taleb, says this current situation IS NOT a Black Swan Event…
NYTIMES, February 2009 - http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/02/23/black-swan-author-sees-trouble-exceeding-1930s/
From the article - [i][b]“Rare and unforeseen events are known as “black swans,” after Mr. Taleb’s 2007 book, “The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable.” Mr. Taleb said the current financial crisis ISN’T ONE.
The black swan for me would be for us to emerge out of this unscathed and return to normalcy,” Mr. Taleb told Bloomberg. Compared to the Great Depression, he said, this crisis is “very different, and it requires much more drastic action.”
Taleb’s book was published in May 2007, about three months before the credit crisis exploded."
[/b][/i]
I think we can ALL agree that the author would have more knowledge of the applicability of HIS OWN CONCEPT… So, the term for which you now CLAIM to have knowledge is also something you OBVIOUSLY don’t understand… :bs
You are very intellectually transparent Fdjake… not necessarily a bad thing, but all too obvious…
BLACK SWAN…Say’s he NEVER heard of it…KNEW NOTHING ABOUT IT…Yet with a few KEY STROKES he is now an AUTHORITY on the SUBJECT.
Here’s another TOPIC or TERM I’ve NEVER brougth up here…ACUTE MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION…Yet I’ve performed CPR on at least 2 dozen people, Intubated them, defibrillated them, and given first line cardiac meds to these people as their hearts started beating again…And they SURVIVED…NUMBER OF TIMES I’VE MENTIONED THIS HERE…
[b] ZERO[/b]
Based on YOUR logic I don’t know anything about this subject either, yet there are LIVING BREATHING HUMANS in this world that are STILL HERE BECAUSE of this KNOWLEDGE!!!..But I’ve never mentioned it here. So I didn’t know these things till NOW…
Just give it up…Your a COMPLETE, PATHETIC, JOKE…
You’re so far out of your league on this it’s SCARY…But AS USUALLY, you’ll continue to show us all HOW LITTLE YOU REALLY KNOW.
Keep up the good work!!!
Fdjake,
“BLACK SWAN… Just give it up… You’re so far out of your league on this it’s SCARY…But AS USUALLY, you’ll continue to show us all HOW LITTLE YOU REALLY KNOW.”
The above post speaks VOLUMES on how much you “really know”…
Another wonderful tidbit added to the search bar…
And he STILL
Fdjake,
“Here’s another TOPIC or TERM I’ve NEVER brougth up here…ACUTE MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION…Yet I’ve performed CPR on at least 2 dozen people, Intubated them, defibrillated them, and given first line cardiac meds to these people as their hearts started beating again…And they SURVIVED…NUMBER OF TIMES I’VE MENTIONED THIS HERE…”
I guess if we had been DISCUSSING CPR for OVER A YEAR, it would PROBABLY have come up MORE often… get that, more often, because you HAVE mentioned you’ve done CPR / defibrillated someone on this site before…
Fdjake - [i][b]“…A 70 year old man had a MASSIVE heart attack while AT WORK. We did CPR/defibbed him for 15 minutes(from the minute we got to him, till we went through the doors at the ER)…Couldn’t save him.”
“We cut him out of the car, started CPR on him, defibrillated him 3 times, and got his heart beating. THIS GUY WAS DEAD.”[/b][/i]
Now, mind you, YOU SAID you “NEVER” have mentioned it before, not me…
So keep going, you’re just digging deeper and deeper…
Nice try…
WOW…This subject has REALLY sent you over the top…
Can’t win the ECONOMICS DEBATE so let’s do the ONLY THING this guy is CAPABLE of doing when he’s getting his handed to him in a debate…DIVERT ATTENTION anway from what makes him look CLUELESS!!!
Let’s compare the TERMS…ACUTE MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION (which has NEVER been mentioned he by me) to…
BLACK SWAN…CPR… or whatever you lamely try to come up with next…Just because I’ve never TYPED in those LETTERS here doesn’t mean I don’t know A WHOLE HELL OF A LOT MORE THAN YOU DO ABOUT THE SUBJECT!!!
Nice try pal…
YOU’RE REALLY LOSING YOUR GRIP ON THIS ONE…
I know I’ve CRUSHED you in a debate when you start playing this game…You can’t win…so you DIVERT…
The BLACK SWAN really made you look like a fool because it described EXACTLY what you had been doing…TO A “T”
SORRY…Once again…YOU LOSE!!!
Fdjake,
“And he STILL can’t shut up…Even after HUMILIATING himself with this current attempt to show us his “knowledge” of a subject he admits to never having HEARD OF!!”
Nice try Fdjake, I’m not the one pretending to know something… I said I wasn’t familiar with Black Swan Event… it was YOU who said he did, and the AUTHOR of the CONCEPT, Nicholas Taleb… DISAGREES WITH YOU! Who is “humiliated” on the subject?
“Get the KAOPECTATE…always has to have the LAST WORD.”
Just RESPONDING to your never-ending … Like I said Fdjake… the search bar is YOUR enemy… and you just keep ADDING TO IT… Learn to quit while you are ahead, or when you are OBVIOUSLY WRONG, learn to show a little humility…
What is funny is how you talk about me wanting to have the last word while trying to have the last word… watch, even though your arguments have been decimated, and you been discredited by YOUR OWN WORDS and assertions, you’ll STILL post again…
It’s OK to once in a while say - “I was wrong”… especially when you are so incontrovertibly wrong…
You don’t think everyone sees this???
"It’s OK to once in a while say- I WAS WRONG."
I agree…
YOU WERE WRONG!!!
You admit…as I predicted…That you had no CLUE what a Black Swan event was…Even though the TERM describes EXACTLY your reaction and WRITINGS to economic events dicussed here…
This area of discussion is NOT your strong suit…C L E A R L Y…
You’re swimming in very deep water here and you are NOT a strong swimmer…IT SHOWS…LET THIS ONE GO…
You won’t I know that…It’s a PERSONALITY FLAW.
GOD BLESS YOUR WIFE!!! Oh my god…I can’t even IMAGINE
Fdjake,
Let’s just let your OWN WORDS speak for themselves… Fdjake vs. Fdjake…
Fdjake - “Here’s another TOPIC or TERM I’ve NEVER brougth up here…ACUTE MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION…Yet I’ve performed CPR on at least 2 dozen people, Intubated them, defibrillated them, and given first line cardiac meds to these people as their hearts started beating again…And they SURVIVED…NUMBER OF TIMES I’VE MENTIONED THIS HERE…”
VS.
Fdjake - “Let’s compare the TERMS…ACUTE MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION (which has NEVER been mentioned he by me) to… Doing CPR on someone…”
You are arguing with YOURSELF… How freaking EMBARASSING!… one MORE for the search bar… THANKS! :biglaugh :lol
And there it is…
The DIVERSION…
And you’re right…
HOW EMBARRASSING Can’t win on the SUBJECT at hand…T A R P…so this is all you have left…
Once again…
I LOVE doing this to you…It’s like setting a WATCH…I know you’ve lost it when you start REACHING for this shelf. You ABANDON the subject at hand becuase it’s CLEAR you’re going down in FLAMES on it…and you attempt to divert attention away from your inability to disscuss a subject that you should have NEVER entered into in the first place.
Fdjake,
“You admit…as I predicted…That you had no CLUE what a Black Swan event was…Even though the TERM describes EXACTLY your reaction and WRITINGS to economic events dicussed here…”
So lets get this straight, you are saying that I admitted I had “no CLUE what a Black Swan event was” when YOU brought it up ? So I admitted that I did not know about Black Swan when I never said I did in the first place?? Great reasoning there, Jakey… :biglaugh :lol :lol
“Even though the TERM describes EXACTLY your reaction and WRITINGS to economic events dicussed here…”
This just gets better and better - What is EVEN FUNNIER, is that now I am a black swan event, even though the AUTHOR, Nicholas Taleb, DISAGREES with YOU on your application of his Black Swan Concept…
Here’s a hint, Fdjake, while I leave this up to the reader, the guy SAYING he is winning is usually the guy who is losing badly… how freaking embarassing…
Or… AGAIN…The WINNER can be determined by the complete LACK of ANYONE here willing to come to YOUR SIDE of the debate.
Once AGAIN…as with your OVER BUDGET, OVER DEADLINE, Investment property…YOU have NO ONE in the fox hole with you!!!
This is a COMMON occurance here with you…
Fjake,
"HOW EMBARRASSING Can’t win on the SUBJECT at hand…T A R P…so this is all you have left…
You sure you want to keep going??? "
Uhm… Jakey, YOU were the one who BROUGHT UP the Black Swan Concept and its application to TARP… and the AUTHOR OF THE CONCEPT, Nicholas Taleb disagrees with whom??? Oh yes, that would be YOU… :biglaugh :lol :lol
So yes indeed… HOW FREAKING EMBARASSING… :redface
And I know the REASON you keep adding posts, like I said you would, is to distance mention of this fact, that you were your COMPLETELY and UTTERLY wrong on Black Swan, but I’ll keep bringing it up so those who only read back a few posts will still read it…
It’s CLASSIC Fdjake… the funny thing is, you somehow don’t think people not only see this but are embarrassed FOR YOU… so keep it coming… it’s quite entertaining watching you squirm with your OWN WORDS…
Well so far in this thread it’s…
Sellinbama agreeing with me “100%”
and ChrisW…
Those agreeing with your side???
ZERO NADA NONE
Nice attempt though…and you might want to do as I suggested and actually READ THE ENTIRE BOOK instead of outakes from wikipedia…
Maybe you could read it this WEEKEND…
Ohhh, sorry I forgot…That’s the ONLY DAY you work on your ONE YEAR and STILL unfinished flip property!!!
Hey…HAPPY ONE YEAR ANNIVERSARY!!! :banana :bouncemulti :elephant :dance
Fdjake,
“Once AGAIN…as with your OVER BUDGET, OVER DEADLINE, Investment property…”
Like we weren’t already waiting for this… when all else fails, your classic straw man…
“Nice attempt though…and you might want to do as I suggested and actually READ THE ENTIRE BOOK instead of outakes from wikipedia…”
I don’t need to read the book… the AUTHOR DISAGREES with YOUR assertion…
“The WINNER can be determined by the complete LACK of ANYONE here willing to come to YOUR SIDE of the debate.”
I am not focused on this like you… that’s up to the reader, but let’s put another one of your ridiculous assertions to the test, shall we… Anyone willing to come to Fdjake’s side of the debate where he argues we had a Black Swan Event this past year, even though the AUTHOR OF THE CONCEPT, Nicholas Taleb DISAGREES with him?
Now, lets watch them flock to your foxhole, Fdjake… :rolleyes
I’ve ALREADY got TWO with me…Maybe be we could RENT SPACE in YOURS??? OOPS…Your FOX HOLE is only HALF FINISHED!!! Sorry, I forgot!!
I can hear an ECHO in your fox hole…NO one in there I guess???
What are you gettin’ the “little lady” for your anniversary???
Some DRYWALL??
Maybe some INTERIOR DOORS??
I hear KITCHENS are very popular for a ONE YEAR anniversary!!!
This is just tooo EASY…
“I don’t need to read the book”
Of coarse you DON’T…WHY READ ANYTHING when you ALREADY KNOW IT ALL!!!
“I’ve ALREADY got TWO with me”
No, Fdjake, you have NOONE “willing to come to Fdjake’s side of the debate where he argues we had a Black Swan Event this past year, even though the AUTHOR OF THE CONCEPT, Nicholas Taleb DISAGREES with him?”
And as we will see, that is likely NOT to change, as they don’t want to be share your embarrassment… Nice try at diversion of the topic… again… :bs
“This is just tooo EASY…”
Yes, I agree… classic Fdjake…
FREE THE HUD-1
What you HIDING / AFRAID of, FDjake?
2 in my FOX HOLE already!!! Both agree that TARP saved us form a complete economic collapse!!!
That EVENT TARP saved us from was EXACTLY the definition of BLACK SWAN…WORD FOR WORD…
ZERO in Positives…BLACK fox HOLE
But maybe BLURTING OUT THAT you NEVER heard of the term, or read the book, or NEED TO in order to fully understand the theory…Might just be keeping folks from jumping into a fox hole with…
CAPTAIN SOBEL
Sobel was the ARROGANT Captain in BAND OF BROTHERS that knew everything… except how to LEAD men into war, read maps, develope strategy and EARN RESPECT… WOW…I think we have a WINNER!!! Sort of like a rehab contractor that knows everything except how to FINISH a REHAB on his own PROPERTY!!!
But You watch what happens when he EVENTUALLY gets this thing DUG and FINISHED…He’s gonna RENT IT, OR SELL IT… (If It’s NOT over budget)…Either way He’s ALREADY MADE MONEY…He’s just LEARNING how to dig FOXHOLES…This was his PLAN all along…To HALF DIG it…Only on WEEKENDS then LEARN from the experience… :rolleyes :rolleyes.
So far…
NOT A SINGLE CALL ON IT…NOT ONE…NO TAKERS…NO ONE in His camp…BUT HIM!!! AS USUAL!
I guess there’s not a HUGE market for HALF DUG Fox holes in not so great areas that come with CAPTAIN SOBEL for a ROOM MATE!!!