nit wit........maybe not

Random Ramblings
61

Fdjake,

"2 in my FOX HOLE already!!! Both agree that TARP saved us form a complete economic collapse!!!
That’s not what we are talking about is it?!.. You have NOONE…

“willing to come to Fdjake’s side of the debate where he argues we had a Black Swan Event this past year, even though the AUTHOR OF THE CONCEPT, Nicholas Taleb DISAGREES with him?”

You are COMPLETELY and UTTERLY ALONE swinging in the breeze on this Black Swan thing Fdjake… and like all the other times, YOU LEAD US STRAIGHT TO IT… :biglaugh :lol

“The EVENT TARP saved us from was EXACTLY the definition of BLACK SWAN…”

Rewriting history again, eh Fdjake… that’ NOT what YOU said when you BOUGHT UP Black Swan… YOU said…

“There’s a TERM for an event like we had…You OBVIOUSLY have NEVER heard of it or understand it…It COMPLETELY explains WHY YOU believe WHAT YOU believe… It’s called a BLACK SWAN EVENT.”

You didn’t say TARP saved us from a Black Swan event, YOU said IT WAS the Black Swan event! Unfortunately for you, because you just blather on about what you obviously don’t know about, the AUTHOR OF THE BLACK SWAN CONCEPT, Nicholas Taleb… DISAGREES with you…

Again, your OWN WORDS bury you one more time and ADD the searchabel data on Fdjake…

62

CAPTAIN SOBEL…

We’re RE-ASSIGNING YOU…

We’ve got a battalion of DITCH DIGGERS that need training back home…Like YOU, they’ve never COMPLETED a FOX HOLE so we can’t call them FOX HOLE DIGGERS…

WE can’t think of a FINER person to put in charge of this group than someone like YOURSELF…(about as sharp as the shovel you’ll be using.)

We cleaned out your half finished FOX HOLE…IT WAS EMPTY…NO ONE IN IT…Looked like NO ONE had ever BEEN in it.

Good Luck Captain Sobel…You REALLY need it!

Like I said…TWO in mine…ZERO in yours…ON ANY point you’ve attempted to make here!!!

Not a SINGLE post in your DEFENSE on this subject.

[font=Verdana]HOW FREAKIN EMBARRASSING!!! [/font]

Z E R O

But when you insist on COMMENTING on concepts and terms you DIDN’T KNOW EXISTED YESTERDAY…It’s not hard to end up looking like our very own…

CAPTAIN SOBEL

I’m done here…I’ll let Captain SOBEL have the last word because he’ll cry and whine like the little GIRL he is if I don’t…

Have at it CAPTAIN…From the looks of THIS and OTHER posts of yours, you’re ONCE AGAIN…

Left A L O N E…

63

positive,

You are arguing over semantics now. Jake has you beat on this argument. It is okay for you to admit once in awhile that maybe your point of view has some flaws.

I challenge you to find me one of your postings where you have ever admitted that your point of veiw or opinion might not be correct.

It is obvious that you are angry that the big banks took money and held it instead of using it to help the American public. But you cannot deny the fact that it helped to stop a panic run on the banking system that could have been disasterous. You are so focused on the future and the cost that you fail to see what could have happened in the present. The unemployment rate would have skyrocketed. The economy would have been in the toilet for a long long time. More people would have lost ther homes which would lead to more property devaluation…

Stop looking at the cost to your grandchildren in the future and start looking at what could have been the cost to you and your family in the present.

64

Christopher,
Good points,I have concern for our future debt as positive does.I’ve seen reps that I trust come under fire when asked about TARP and not back down and say they would support it again.I’m more alarmed at the trend of taking advantage of a situation that it set than in itself.

Under Rahm’s"you don’t want to let a crisis go to waste"theory along with the incoming administration doing the same tactics that made the public mostly support TARP,has since caused more spending than ever.The stimulous was a waste as omnibus was.ANd as we seen in Washington last saturday(9/12 tea party 4 those nbc watchers)the people are awake to the scam of panic to push through $$billions.

Now what they have caused is attention to themselves which equals accoutability.And I personally think the last thing washington corruption wants is attention.Greed has a way of killing itself and fails without even knowing it,which is what will happen as long as we’re ALL looking.No matter our differences,the fact that the eyes are on them is enough. :cool

65

As I have said above hindsight is 20/20 and you are correct the stimulus was a waste as was omnibus. Most of the money is being spent on things that we would have either needed anyway or been forced to do anyway. Thing such a new highway construction, etc…

In regards to TARP though I agree that something had to be done to stop the panic that was going to ensue.

For anyone to say that we should have seen this coming is ridiculous. Lehman Brothers had been around for over 100 years and POOF gone. This is a once in a generation kind of economic event and I don’t blame anyone for jumping on board to try and save the economy. I give George Bush credit for helping to save the financial system.

You are absolutely right though. Washington now knows that people are watching so hopefully it will make them clean up their act a bit.

66

Christopher,

"I challenge you to find me one of your postings where you have ever admitted that your point of veiw or opinion might not be correct. "

Do the same for yourself and Fdjake… but I remember on numerous times saying that I don’t know everything… as far as being “wrong” goes, when having differences of opinions we would have to prove each other wrong first… so if I am proven wrong on something, I wouldn’t have a problem saying… that is quite different, however, than FDjake saying that this last year was a Black Swan event, only to have it PROVEN to him that it WAS NOT…

“Stop looking at the cost to your grandchildren in the future and start looking at what could have been the cost to you and your family in the present.”

Ufortuntately, we will not have to wait until we have grandchildren or with our kids… even though the affects will last that long, we will be feeling it in our generation also…

"But you cannot deny the fact that it helped to stop a panic run on the banking system that could have been disasterous. "

That’s your opinion, but I have posted NUMEROUS links that state the opposite… Economists, PHD’s, etc… They said it at the time AND afterwards…

“Jake has you beat on this argument.”

First off, this whole “winning” thing you and Fdjake have going is your thing… I don’t keep tabs on that kind of stuff, the reader will make that decision for themself… That said, your assertion that Jake has me “beat” on this argument has indeed not been proven… it’s just your opinion… you realize that, right? I have offered COUNTERPOINT with links, etc. to his assertions which have not been refuted or addressed… so how could you intellectually come to the conclusion without bascially saying your right no matter the contradictions that exist? You may AGREE with Fdjake on his POSITION, but it is far from proven, therefore, there is nothing to “beat”…

“As I have said above hindsight is 20/20 and you are correct the stimulus was a waste as was omnibus.”

No, you have argued in other threads FOR stimulus and omnibus…

"You are arguing over semantics now. Jake has you beat on this argument. It is okay for you to admit once in awhile that maybe your point of view has some flaws. "

It is not semantics that Fdjake is completely wrong on the Black Swan Event… The Author of the Concept, Nicholas Taled, said IT WAS NOT a Black Swan Event…

So to be clear, Christophr, as I don’t want to put words in your mouth, are you saying you are “willing to come to Fdjake’s side of the debate where he argues we had a Black Swan Event this past year, even though the AUTHOR OF THE CONCEPT, Nicholas Taleb DISAGREES with him?”

That’s a very simple question and not semantics… and remember, I’m not the one who proposed this as fact, FDjake did…

67

Sellinbama,

What was amazing to me is that the 9/12 march was not organized by any one person or group…

From what I could see from the little coverage of it, it was regular people, with their families… People who are very angry at all the spending… we have been shafted and left holding the bag because of TARP…

I just don’t buy the argument that we would have went off a cliff… if that’s the case then EVERY time we have companies that are “too big to fail”, they will have to be bailed out, as opposed to letting them go under as they should… the people of the country are left being the “safety net” for the bad decisions and risk-taking of these companies with NO REWARD…

Look at the Auto companies, we can’t let them go bankrupt, right? That was the argument, it would KILL the industry… Well AFTER we lost 10’s of BILLIONS, then they went bankrupt ANYWAY… we will NEVER see that money again… and the kicker is, we BORROWED this money to bail them out… :banghead

68

My god man you are like a petulant child. :banghead

You are right I have argued for the stimulus and by admitting that others were correct I am not admitting that I was wrong? You should try it some time.

You have some serious issues.

69

TARP was used to STOP a CASADING SERIES of FAILURES…A BLACK SWAN EVENT…From AIG to LEHMAN to Freddie and FANNIE, to MORGAN STANLEY, To CITI…

These series of EVENTS created an atmosphere where NO ONE knew WHO was solvent, where their exposure was, and how long this would last…it got so bad BANKS would NOT loan money OVERNIGHT to other BANKS!!!

NO ONE…Predicted this level of PANIC in THESE INSTITUTIONS…It created the BLACK SWAN…

Incidentally…the Use of term BLACK SWAN comes from the 17th century when ONE ONE KNEW Black Swans even EXISTED…It was used as the phrase “when pigs fly” is today…So in 2007 if I said to everyone here…NEXT YEAR…LEHMAN BROTHERS WILL NO LONGER EXIST…It will COLLAPSE and be GONE…
A REASONABLE response (at that tinme) would have been…Yea…When pigs fly.

That is the very ROOT of the Black Swan Theory…SOMETHING that NO ONE saw coming or could have predicted.

Positive is SQUIRMING right now because he looks foolish and his obvious LACK of knowledge regarding this subject is PAINFULLY apparent…He mentions the FDIC’s increase of Goverment guarantees as the solution to this…AIG ALONE…If allowed to FAIL, would have BANKRUPTED HALF THE WORLD BANKS…FDIC Insurance doesn’t cover these accounts and ASSETS…MY GOD…GET AT LEAST HALF A CLUE BEFORE YOU START TAPPING AWAY!! :rolleyes
He wasn’t AT ALL familiar with the term and has NEVER read the book which outlines why these events occur and how they SHOULD be dealth with…Instead he argues meaningless BS that OBVIOUSLY…
NO ONE HERE is coming to his defense for…

I’ll let the READERS decide if 2008 which saw the following events was a BLACK SWAN…which included…

The Collapse and and utter destruction of LEHMAN BROTHERS

AIG at a point where their exposure to Credit Default Swaps was so MASSIVE the stock went from $1400/share in 2007 to $8 within months and U.S. Goverment intervention is the ONLY reason they are still here today.

Morgan Stanley…Bankrupt

Fannie and Freddie taken over by the Goverment

Positive claims that this should have been PREDICTED…AGAIN this is EXACTLY the REACTION the Black Swan Theory addresses…AFTER the event occurs people need to create excuses for why it wasn’t seen coming…but should have…

Just EXACTLY as POSITIVE has shown us…

2 on my side…

ZERO on his…AS USUAL

70

Christopher,

“You are right I have argued for the stimulus and by admitting that others were correct I am not admitting that I was wrong? You should try it some time.”

This was the first time I heard you say it, and it wasn’t in the vein of “BTW, I was wrong on that one”, so excuse the understandable misunderstanding… enough said… glad to see we agree that both “stimulus” and omnibus were a waste… Welcome to the other side… :beer

Now to see if we help you more… Fdjake has been arguing that the credit markets are unfrozen… I am arguing that they are thawing but still pretty much frozen…

US credit shrinks at Great Depression rate prompting fears of double-dip recession, Telegraph, By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor, September 14, 2009…
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/recession/6190818/US-credit-shrinks-at-Great-Depression-rate-prompting-fears-of-double-dip-recession.html

From the article - [i][b]“Both bank credit and the M3 money supply in the United States have been contracting at rates comparable to the onset of the Great Depression since early summer, raising fears of a double-dip recession in 2010 and a slide into debt-deflation.”

“Similar concerns have been raised by David Rosenberg, chief strategist at Gluskin Sheff, who said that over the four weeks up to August 24, bank credit shrank at an “epic” 9pc annual pace, the M2 money supply shrank at 12.2pc and M1 shrank at 6.5pc.”

““For the first time in the post-WW2 [Second World War] era, we have deflation in credit, wages and rents and, from our lens, this is a toxic brew,” he said.”[/b][/i]

BTW, I take it then you will not be associating your credibility with FDjake’s regarding his Black Swan Event assertion?

71

DUH…I think he already did that when he said I WON THIS DEBATE!!!

Once AGAIN…Positive swings the door of his NO KNOWLEDGE WORLD WIDE OPEN for everyone to see…

Genius…Credit ALWAYS SHRINKS during recessions…Meredith Whitney was talking about this a YEAR AGO…But you must have been up to your EYE BALLS in TERMITES at that time working on your FLIP HOME!!!

Notice the link didn’t say FROZEN as you claim credit markets are…

I guess Libor at LESS than 1% is still FROZEN too??? Oh sorry…I’ll give you time to GOOGLE LIBOR so you can talk about another subject you learned about TODAY !!!

I guess the 600,000 people that just purchased NEW CARS were all CASH BUYERS??? NO CREDIT THERE :banghead :banghead
I guess the uptick in homes sales are ALL CASH BUYERS TOO…

I WONDER??? Could CREDIT BE SHRINKING because people are PAYING DOWN DEBT??? Or CLOSING CREDIT accounts??? BANK pulll in their exposure during EVERY RECESSION…the difference between a line of credit someone hasn;t used in 2 years and LIBOR over night lending is a gap even you can’t jump…Get at least a SMALL CLUE…PLEASE.

Keep talking CAPTAIN SOBEL…We’ve got a nice Position for you AWAY from the real combat where you can’t get hurt!!!

72

Fdjake,

“NO ONE…Predicted this level of PANIC in THESE INSTITUTIONS…It created the BLACK SWAN…”

Only problem for you Fdjake, is that the AUTHOR OF THE CONCEPT, Nicholas Taleb has said on the record that this was NOT a Black Swan… As a matter of fact, he said the OPPOSITE - “if we were exit this siutation UNSCATHED” THAT would be the Black Swan…

You’ll note NOONE is jumping on board with you with this Black Swan BS…

“NO ONE HERE is coming to his defense for…”

Interestingly, noone has DISPUTED what I have written on Black Swan either… they have just left you DANGLING in the breeze Fdjake…

“If allowed to FAIL would have BANKRUPTED HALF THE WORLD BANKS…FDIC Insurance doesn’t PERTAIN to these accounts and ASSETS…MY GOD…GET AT LEAST HALF A CLUE BEFORE YOU START TAPPING AWAY!!”

The Fed has had in place a policy since the 80’s to take over banks in that collapse scenario… As you saw WHEN WE BECAME EQUITY OWNERS in AIG there were alternate solutions to TARP…

But you’ll note that NONE OF THE TARP money was setup so that when the loan was paid back, the PRINCIPAL and INTEREST we had to absorb would be negated at the same time… So when and IF we get this money back, where do you think it will go next?..

“Positive claims that this should have been PREDICTED”

No, I have point to OTHERS who have said this AND predicted it…

“2 on my side…”

OK Mr. Scorekeeper, name the names that are “2 on your side” for Black Swan Fdjake… NOONE here is associating themselves with it… So now, YOU are saying YOU know the Black Swan Even theory BETTER than the guy who wrote about it??? Are you THAT deluded??? :bs :biglaugh :lol

73

Fdjake,

“Notice it didn’t say FROZEN as you claim credit markets are…”

Wrong AGAIN Fdjake, I said they were thawing but PRETTY MUCH still frozen… YOU said they were UNFROZEN…

Can we agree that CONTRACTING credit is going in the opposite direction of being unfrozen???

74

WOW what a DIFFERENCE…Thawing vs UN frozen…Next you can claim the INSIDE is still frozen but the OUTSIDE is WET!!! What a complete JOKE…

I guess the 600,000 that just purchased NEW CARS got FROST BITE when the picked up their PAYMENT BOOKS!!!

YOU LOST THIS ONE PAL…Had your handed to you…

NOT EVEN CLOSE…

2 in my camp…

ZERO in yours!!!

STILL

75

Pos,

I don’t know if we were headed for a cliff and/or would’ve made it through with/without TARP.And yes I was’nt tickled about it especially to findout alot of it went to overseas banks.But eitherway,I don’t know if I’d take the same gamble with the state of our economic survival as the survival of the car companies.I chalk it up as a price we had to pay dearly for a housing boom that started(under clinton)early 90’s and has been bled dry by both parties and wall street since then.

It’s in turn put us ALL in a down market due to the frozen credit market,while they try to figureout what went wrong and (I would hope)not do it again.However,this administration WAS NOT READY FOR THE JOB.These hairbrain intitlements they feel are the right thing for america to do are only compounding an already delicate,delicate economy.It’s like why would you call the gas company to put out your house burning down??Not that mccain would’ve been the fire dept,but atleast it would’nt have been record spending with an agenda in mind.

76

Fdjake,

“2 in my camp…”

And yet, you STILL can’t name them… BWAHAAH HAAA HAAA talk about self-dillusion… :bs :biglaugh :lol You can’t name them because NOONE will associate their credibility with your Black Swan BS when the AUTHOR OF THE CONCEPT, Nicholas Taled, DISAGREES with YOU… but you can always prove me WRONG by naming the names that currently DON’T EXIST… :bs

“Positive claims that this should have been PREDICTED”

Not every aspect, but here’s yet ANOTHER example…

FT.COM - Economist warns of double-dip recession, By Robert Cookson and Sundeep Tucker in Hong Kong, September 14, 2009

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e6dd31f0-a133-11de-a88d-00144feabdc0.html

From the article - [i][b]“The world has not tackled the problems at the heart of the economic downturn and is likely to slip back into recession, according to one of the few mainstream economists who PREDICTED the financial crisis.”

"Speaking at the Sibos conference in Hong Kong on Monday, William White, the highly-respected former chief economist at the Bank for International Settlements, also warned that government actions to help the economy in the short run may be sowing the seeds for future crises. "

“The comments from Mr White, who ran the economic department at the central banks’ bank from 1995 to 2008, carry weight because he was one of the few senior figures to PREDICT the financial crisis in the years before it struck.”

"Mr White repeatedly warned of dangerous imbalances in the global financial system as far back as 2003 and – breaking a great taboo in central banking circles at the time – he dared to challenge Alan Greenspan, then chairman of the Federal Reserve, over his policy of persistent cheap money. "[/b][/i]

And I wonder who will be bailing them out AGAIN… Can’t let those “crises” go to waste now can we?? They should rise and fall on their own steam… period…

Sellinbama…

“It’s in turn put us ALL in a down market due to the frozen credit market,while they try to figureout what went wrong and (I would hope)not do it again.”

As you can see from the above article, that unfortunately not likely…

“Not that mccain would’ve been the fire dept,but atleast it would’nt have been record spending with an agenda in mind.”

No argument there…

77

TWO…CHRISW and BAMA…That’s TWO…Both AGREE TARP saved the economy…and CHRIS not only agrees with the BLACK SWAN event…HE THANKED ME FOR POSTING IT…But don’t let those two little FACTS stand it the way of you looking like an even BIGGER JOKE than usual.

WOW a DOUBLE DIP…R E C E S S I O N…What a REVELATION…

Pal…I don’t need a LINK to tell ME that’s a very high possiblity. In FACT I am BANKING on that…

It will be NOTHING compared to the ALL OUT DESTRUCTION of the ECONOMY we were looking at LAST YEAR…During that BLACK SWAN EVENT!!!

Oh and GENIUS…

Why don’t you take your little SEARCH button and look up WHO mentioned the INTERNATIONAL BANK OF SETTLEMENTS here FIRST over 2 YEARS AGO!!!

HINT…

IT WAS ME!!!

This was at a time when NO ONE thougth things would fall apart…As a matter of FACT…One of the comments was…

WHO CARES WHAT A BUNCH OF BANKERS THINK…But they NEVER pretended to know the EXTENT of the coming disaster…They said we could have a depression (a 10% or greater drop in GDP) But not even THESE GUYS saw what would happen just over one year later. A CASCADING COLLAPSE OF CONFIDENCE IN THE BANKING SYSTEM ALL THE WAY TO THEIR FRONT DOORS. IBS handles LIBOR lending…FOOL.

The TARP saved our economy and our banking system…CHRISW agrees with that…BAMA agrees with that…THEY SAID IT…ONLY YOU can’t admit it’s a subject you don;t have a full understanding about and therefor are WRONG in your assessment…But that’s OK…We all know you’re WRONG, and we all know you’d NEVER admit it…

Once AGAIN…You’ve been badly BEAT to the punch.

Your understanding of ECONOMICS can be completely seen in your ONE YEAR TIME FRAME for your first flip.

You better HOPE we don’t get that DOUBLE DIP genius…Because if we do…YOU AREN’T SELLING THAT HOUSE…Better get the RENTAL SIGNS POSTED!!!

78

Is Tarp Constitutional? Or… do we break the Constitution every time we have a URGENT need to? I cant find it anywhere in there…If not, why even have a Constitution?

nvm… :open_mouth:

79

Fdjake,

“TWO…CHRISW and BAMA…That’s TWO…Both AGREE TARP saved the economy…”

That’s NOT what we were referring to… we are referring to anyone “willing to come to Fdjake’s side of the debate where he argues we had a Black Swan Event this past year, even though the AUTHOR OF THE CONCEPT, Nicholas Taleb DISAGREES with him?”

And you have NOONE here willing to give up their credibility to associate themselves with your Black Swan BS… ESPECIALLY AFTER they read the AUTHOR disagreeing with you… But somehow, YOU know MORE than the AUTHOR on his own CONCEPT… :bs

I wonder how Christopher W and Sellinbama feel about you trying to assocaite them with your Black Swan BS?..

“…and CHRIS not only agrees with the BLACK SWAN event…HE THANKED ME FOR POSTING IT…But don’t let those two little FACTS stand it the way of you looking like an even BIGGER JOKE than usual.”

Well, sad for you, I went back and looked at all Christopher’s posts (Replies #40, #62, #64, and #67) from when you first mentioned your ill-fated opinion on the Black Swan Event (Reply #38), and there is NOT a post where he THANKED YOU… So unless you can produce a post from Christopher THANKING YOU, you are now lying to cover your tracks… Not only that, Christopher also never said in any of those posts that he AGREED with the Black Swan Event…

You will ALSO note that after I EXPOSED your lack of understanding of the Black Swan Event by posting a link to a NYTimes article by the AUTHOR OF THE CONCEPT, Nicholas Taleb, who DISAGREES with you and said in the article that this was NOT a Black Swan Event… you are the ONLY ONE still trying to make the argument…

And now, you are showing DISDAIN for your fellow investors by being deceitful and lying to them… adding to the search bar that is your enemy… I can’t imagine what it is like to be you when you are alone with all your thoughts knowing you do this… there is a way for you not to feel bad anymore FDjake… just STOP doing it… :beer

Despite what you may think, it truly saddens me when you do this, becuase you only damage yourself when you do it, because ultimately you have to live with you… everyone else reads it for what it is, no matter how much you try to deceive and deflect it… :rolleyes

“The TARP saved our economy and our banking system…CHRISW agrees with that…BAMA agrees with that…THEY SAID IT…ONLY YOU can’t admit it’s a subject you don;t have a full understanding about and therefor are WRONG in your assessment…”

No, my assessment comes after reading the EXPERTS on the matter… so your argument is with them… remember, I BACK UP my posts with links and sources… I just don’t spout off like you…

“Your understanding of ECONOMICS can be completely seen in your ONE YEAR TIME FRAME for your first flip.”

Straw man…

FREE THE HUD-1!
What are you HIDING / AFRAID of, FDJake?!

80

Nice try…

But EVERYONE here see’s right through your BS :bs… It’s PATHETIC.

But I do enjoy having you RAMBLE on and BURYING YOURSELF deeper and deeper…

My GOAL here is simple…Show everyone what YOU try and HIDE…That is…You have NO IDEA what you’re talking about with regard to our ECONOMY…INVESTING…POLITICS…or vitually ANY subject you cover here…

You never ending responses MAKE MY DAY!!!

It takes SO LITTLE to WIND YOU UP…The RESULTS are ALWAYS the same…You get MURDERED in the arguement and are forced to veer off into LAA LAA land of periods, comas, and spelling…

Nice try…

STILL

TWO to ZERO

Oh and he didn’t THANK ME…He read the BLACK SWAN post and said…

YOU ARE AEWSOME…

I didn’t want to BRAG so I just PARAPHASED it into a simple THANK YOU…

Thanks for picking up on that…I like AEWSOME much better!!!