Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!

Random Ramblings
81

Rookie,

I respect your opinion here, and you may be proven correct. BUT…

You and I had some very heated debates a few years ago when I predicted EXACTLY what we are now living through. We are entering a DEFLATIONARY DEPRESSION. ALL asset classes are falling and this has ALL happened before. It was called THE GREAT DEPRESSION.

When I PM’d you this summer to explain that I was buying puts in the USO (shorting the OIL market) because demand for oil would slow as our economy slowed. I further explained that I thought CHINA would take a BEATING as Amercans stopped BUYING, (remember…it was CHINA that the experts said was causing oil to rocket) I mentioned that ridership on public transportation was at all time highs, people were trading in their SUV’s for Honda Civic’s, bike sales were soaring, in other words…people were doing ANYTHING in their power to AVOID using OIL. You strongly warned me AGAINST THAT investment. You mentioned a bullish chart pattern.

I am up 10 TIMES on those USO puts and there is NO END IN Sight for a bottom in oil.

There are very few people here who’s opinions I respect more than yours. So far FORD stock has been KILLED, but Kirk Kerkorian’s sale does not change the underlying theory…

OBAMA, like it or not…IS the next President…IT’S DONE. This isn’t OPINION…IN EVERY economic disaster in HISTORY the party in power GETS THE BOOT… This time will be NO DIFFERENT!!!
The DEMS and their new President will give GM and FORD whatever loans they require to KEEP them alive thorugh this BUST. Time is all Ford needs…without that TIME, they ARE DEAD!!!

My bet is Ford gets the money through the Goverment, and that money, BUYs them time. If it gets so bad that even TIME won’t help???
I’ll be buying GUNS at that point because the economy will have collapsed.

Rookie…you are one of the smartest people I know…you could very easily be right on Ford. I also appreciate that you took the time to warn me about the perils of this investment. But…sometimes you just have to go with your gut…in my experience, and without exception, EVERY SINGLE TIME I have ignored that GUT feeling, I have regretted it. It may sound overly simplistic, but I go with what works for me. I’ve been wrong in the past and so have you. It’s part of the process, LEARNING from those mistakes is a HUGE part of successful investing over the LONG HAUL. If Ford survived the disasterous 1970’s with Oil prices at never before seen highs, unemployment in double digits, interest and mortgage rates in the teens, I feel strongly, with Goverment backing, they will survive this…
We will all see…

82

You strongly warned me AGAINST THAT investment. You mentioned a bullish chart pattern.

If I remember correctly when we had the conversation oil was at $96 per barrel…So I was correct to stay out of oils way for the time being…To sit here today and say you were short USO from $96 oil and you held short through $147 oil is impossible for me to fathom…I also don’t hold much credit to positions I read about months after they were supposedly taken on…I live in the here and now and I don’t feel that many of the posts that are displayed here represent the true entries and exits of positions spoken about…Its very easy to say I bought the QID at $40 and sold it at $80…Who is going to know???..After the fact trading is for dreamers,I’m a pro I live in the present time…Not what I dream up overnight…I respect your opinion and you are clearly a knowledgeable guy but we as traders make mistakes…Its just part of what we do…There is no harm in saying yes I muffed up on Ford it turned out to be a real POS pig…And I think we would all respect you for being RESPONSIBLE and up front…Rather than to say months after Frod freefell that you secretly bought puts or magically hedged yourself,like you or anyone else knew the markets would crater and Ford would follow…There is no harm to man up…

Not looking to sling mud nor stir the pot…This is what I do and I can poke holes in many things I read here and I don’t…For a big mouth Italian (me) I keep my opinion to myself…

83

I NEVER said I bought puts in Ford…I have NEVER owned PUTS in Ford.

AND…Oil was over $120 when I sent you that PM. I still have your response.

I’m not arguing with you here. I respect your opinions too much for that.

Ford’s been a DOG…no doubt about it…but it’s no where NEAR over.
For someone who’s holding times are mearured in minutes, this is NOT a good way to make money. BUT…the ONLY advantage I have is in the fact that I DON’T have to be TRADING all the time. I can SIT and wait.

Nothing has changed with regards to Ford. The MARKET sucks, that’s true, and it’s going to get worse.
I know you trade professionally, but I didn’t start doing this 2 years ago either. I’ve been investing EXACTLY this way for over 18 years. IT WORKS FOR ME. It’s not about being right or wrong, or about admitting your right or wrong…it’s about having a PLAN and WORKING that plan. How in hell do you think I learned this…I LEARNED it by making the mistake of buying into OTHER PEOPLES OPINIONS and BAILING OUT of positions that would have made me TON’S of money. You only do that so many times before you LEARN. You LEARN or you LEAVE. I don’t LEAVE.

If you remember correctly…I DIDN’T BUY FORD because KIRK Kerkorian was buying it. I was in LONG before he was even IN. So why then would I SELL it when he does??? This is cut and dried…he was about to lose a HUGE stake in MGM on a margin call. He bailed inorder to save THAT postion. He made his call, I’m making mine.

This is what investing is all about. It’s not about doing what Rookie, or Kirk, or Warren, or anyone else thinks. It’s about DOING what the person putting up the DOUGH thinks.
Time will tell…

I STILL haven’t heard anyone here, INCLUDING ROOKIE, tell me how FORD goes under with GOVERMENT LOAN GUARANTEES??? Show me how that business fails with THAT for a back stop??? Even if the BANKS won’t make those loans, the GOVERMENT will.

You guy’s are MISSING IT…unemployment is going to ROCKET from here.
It will be POLITICAL SUICIDE to let a company close it’s doors that employs TEN’S OF THOUSANDS of people DURING A DEPRESSION.

THEY SURVIVED THE FIRST GREAT DEPRESSION…THEY’LL SURVIVE THIS
ONE.

I will leave you all with this…

Rookie said over a year ago that Ford was dog and it would probably go lower.

HE has been proven 100% CORRECT.

I bought Ford for a 2 to 4 year turn around play. I’ll be sure and let you ALL know, good or bad, how it works out!!! My gut and my experience tells me we BOTH end up being RIGHT.

84

ok fdjake…Your still my man !!!..

I don’t know about you guys but I have seen a few traders wearing hard hats today…This blood is unreal…I took a %4 stop my closed end funds…i bought into the blood again at exactly 3:48 pm…I bought sso.qld.ddm.usd.ure.uyg.bac.ge.rsx.eem…

Lets see if i can get a bounce that continues…made %2 back of the %4 I lost in 10 minutes using these 2x etfs compared to holding those closed end funds that MELTED…No sleep tonight again…Oh well its only money…

85

I gotta give you credit man…Psychologically it’s BRUTAL.

I read your post a few days back…That was probably the most insightful look into the mind of a trader I have ever read. The ability to control your emotions is incredible.

I couldn’t do it…I know that…My saving grace is being able to just step back and NOT play when things get crazy.

Still learning a ton from you Rookie…

Thanks!

86

I just joined you on SSO but i got it @ 28.55 :beer

I think tomorrow should bounce up 300 pts. Im comfortable with these stocks.

well now i dont feel so bad i bought right around the time you did but i should have been watching DAL i could have gotten it for $1 less a share and im alittle nervous about the sell off intra-day. the only news was nwa’s oil hedge will cost nwa money with lower oil prices and they’re gonna merge later this year.

87

man i did alot of trading in one of my accounts today. i think 3 day trades i got chill on that for the rest of week now.

rookie do you use margin ?? i hear alot of people advise against it, wondering what your thoughts are on it.

88

rookie do you use margin ?? i hear alot of people advise against it, wondering what your thoughts are on it.

In my personal accounts no I don’t normally use margin unless we are under much different market conditions…At the moment I’m only using %7 of my available capital…I presently have %93 in cash…FSLXX to be exact…It pays a whopping %2.88…LOL…fwiw YTD I’m UP %3.1 on %100 capital…I’ve worked my butt off to get that…

fdjake…
Psychology is the name of this game…I’m here to help and I love to be helped…I still learn something everyday from this market…What I definitely have learned is that im going to be justing indexing for a while…Closed end funds MELT…Not liquid enough to be in this market…ETF’s or nothing…

89

ugh lost $20 on commissions on SSO i should sold for a dollar per share profit.

DUG looks like its gonna be a winner again today. intra-day low was around 47 @ 53 now. I didnt think the sell off would continue today, but what do know i dont run a hedge fund so.

90

between yesterdays and entries and some sub par exits today I did ok,but didn’t get great exits…Hindsight is 20/20…Movin on …Just glad not to be an investor…Jeez does this ever end …I feel horrible for the retirees…Dreams are being crushed and what I think everyone is missing about this is how long the recovery will take…The destruction of wealth that is taking place will take decades to rebuild…You are witnessing history to be alive during these times…Seems like these markets are setting up for the big one (crash)…Just has a bottomless feel…Hopefully I’m wrong,very wrong…

Classic Fed liquidity injection just before markets are ready to break down…

91

rookie

this market will pick up as soon as the hedge fund’s stop liquidating and all the margin calls are meet or liquidated and theirs calm back. when we have a few days of calm then you will see a jump when the cash comes pouring back into the market.

a lot of people keep pointing out how things are cheap now but people cant get back in to buy them because everyday theres 10% swings. Will people stop buying big macs, coca-cola, computers, cell phones, you name it. the government is pulling out all the stops they can and those stops are just getting some traction. Now’s definetly not the time to be long anything but its coming soon. I think after the election things will get back to normal as far as volatility goes.

92

that being said im back to all cash except for my ocnf , dividend play which isn’t a big position at all.

the market kicked my ass today, took my profits from yesterday. :flush

93

wow this market is moving big time today. timing is everything in this market. the crazy 3 o clock hour is here this market swings hard at 3 oclock

94

this is bad im actually routing for the market to tank so i can pick up my stocks later at a better price.

poor investors gut wrenching watching this stuff.

95

Hey FDJake,

Our Ford stock is looking better and better. As I said a couple of weeks ago, I think this Ford play is really a bet that the government won’t allow Ford to file bankruptcy. With Obama being elected and the dems picking up big majorities in Congress, I think that chances of the Dems allowing Ford to file bankruptcy are greatly reduced. I bought back my first covered call for $.06, so I’m into Ford for $1.62 per share. I’m hoping for another bounce in the next few days as it becomes apparent that the dems will bail out the auto industry and I’ve got another order in to sell the Nov. $3 covered call again for $.52. Let’s keep it going!!!

You had a good call on the Ford play! Here’s another you might take a look at: ACI (Arch Coal). Unless we don’t need electricity anymore, then we’re going to need coal. I bought it on the last dip at $16.83 and sold a Nov. $17.50 Covered Call for $2.25. It then went to up around $21, but is now coming back down. I have an order in to buy my CC back at $.10. I think the likely bottom is around $15, but it could go as low as $10 (worst case). Check it out and let me know what you think!

Comrade Mike

96

In my opinion, here’s why FORD is a LOCK…

The Dems sat and WATCHED as the Bush administration let LEHMAN collapse. That SINGLE MISTAKE created a series of events that DIRECTLY lead to a COLLAPSE in stock prices.

The Dems JUST got back in the drivers seat. If share holders, pension funds, mutual funds, and anyone else with shares in Ford or GM are hungout to dry (like Lehman shareholders) ANY REMAINING people LEFT in the stock market will HEAD FOR THE DOORS. THEY WILL SELL ANY STOCK, and we will have a repeat of the Lehman induced sell off!! Can you IMAGINE the reaction on Wall St. to an announcement that either FORD or GM entered BANKRUPTCY??? Forget it…someone shut the lights off, it’s OVER!!! THIS WILL NOT BE ALLOWED TO HAPPEN.

The FED has already admitted that they completely screwed up by letting Lehman go under. The best part about the CAR COMPANIES today was…

THE JOBS REPORT!!!

PEOPLE…PAY ATTENTION HERE.

The jobs report was TERRIBLE. A study just released by a highly regarded MIT economist concluded that a loss of either FORD or GM (just one of them) would DIRECTLY LEAD TO THE LOSS OF 2.5 MILLION JOBS!!! :shocked :shocked :shocked :shocked :shocked

There is NO WAY on earth that the DEMS will let GM or FORD go into bankruptcy. BANKRUPTCY for an AUTOMAKER is NOT an option.
Someone here tell me WHO BUYS A NEW CAR FROM AN AUTOMAKER IN BANKRUPTCY???

Answer…NO ONE DOES!!!

Ford and GM will get ANY and ALL the money they need to ride out this recession/depression. As I’ve said before…There is ABSOLUTELY NOTHING BETTER than recession to build PENT UP DEMAND for automobiles. Once the economy turns, ( it could EASILY take 4-5 years)…BUT…after EVERY SINGLE RECESSION in HISTORY…the FIRST thing people buy are NEW CARS!!! They replace the junkers that they HAD to keep driving during the lean times. Car company stocks will make gains that will BLOW YOUR MIND!!!

When this lights off (and it will)…I would NOT be surprised to see FORD RIP right up to the mid $30/share range.
It sounds CRAZY to say this now…but I HAVE DONE THIS BEFORE. People have incredibly SHORT MEMORIES!!!

YOU ARE BUYING A COMPANY… THAT THE MOST POWERFUL COUNTRY ON EARTH…

W I L L N O T A L L O W T O F A I L!!!

It REALLY doesn’t get much better than this gentlemen!!!

Buy now…or WISH you had later!!!

97

i bought gm earlier for 4.10 sold it at 4.30 got lucky on the high.

I am hoping gm goes down again end of the day. its gonna double in a very short time, so will F.

funny when cnbc was saying they will go bk gm plummeted, funny they can say stupid things and people will panic. If GM and F go bk this country will be in a depression !!

buy them today because by monday the tune will be changed from panic to celebration.

98

the talk is Auto’s should file BK because the gov’s money will come with restrictions. lets look at it.

they say gm has 17bln and if they file bk they can still operate. bs shareholders who lost there money would never buy another GM made car in their life if they choose bk instead of a government bailout. they would still have to cut jobs and a lot of them. those jobs affect other companies jobs, it has a trickle down affect. hmmm hmmm LEHMAN hmmm hmmm

theres no way i see any auto’s going bk. they are really too big to fail. those restrictions that would likely come along with government money is needed. these auto have done little to evolve their business. they are going to be forced to change anyways. they will take any money they can get to do it.

99

I figured I’d resurrect this thread since Congress will be taking this issue up this week.
I think the Automakers will not be allowed to fail. I actually have two questions about this.

  1. If the Ford play is a good investment ( which I think it is), wouldn’t it be wise for the govt. to “invest” taxpayer money to reap the rewards? The way I understand it, this would be a loan. Therefore would have to be paid back.

  2. Someone advised me to open a sharebuilder.com account. Then I can buy stocks. Does this sound like a good idea or is there another website? I don’t have much to invest, but I want to give it a try. Any suggestions?

100

Sharebuilder is a good cheap site to trade from. Fees are low. If you set up the automatic investment, you can get $4 trades. The problem with those is the trades go thru on a predetermined date so you can’t jump on something when you see the price where you want in or out. We’ve used sharebuilder for a couple years with no issues except the stocks we bought are in the toilet.
You can still pay more for market trades that execute after you put in your order. I’m just saying the $4 trades advertised have some restrictions.