Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!

Random Ramblings
101

I’d like to put my moderator hat on for just a moment and remind EVERYONE that investing in the stock market involves risk. Furthermore, investing in a company that may go bankrupt involves a LOT OF RISK. You could easily lose every penny you put in.

FDJake is investing in Ford with discretionary money, which means that if he loses it all, he’s not going to be broke or need to alter his lifestyle. Trading and/or investing in stock requires becoming educated, just as investing in real estate requires education. So, please carefully consider where you put your money. If you lose it, the only person you’ll have to blame is yourself!!!

Mike

102

To add to what Mike just posted…

When you read or hear someone make UNREAL claims of profits you can bet its a LIE…These are only feeble attempts to lure others into a dream which will surely become a nightmare…The stock market is the HARDEST way to make money for the inexperienced…I’m a professional,this is what I do for a living and I found this year incredibly difficult…Thats because I trade/invest with REAL MONEY…When I post I do so based on REAL TRADES WITH REAL MONEY…Not hypothetical dreaming of what I coulda,shoulda or woulda done…Its very important newbies and veterans realize the difference between the real and the FAKE…Stocks that are under $5 are viewed as high risk garbage on wall street…A stocks price reflects the value of the business and the inherent risk of owning it…You ever heard the term you get what you pay for?..If it sounds too good to be true it IS…Just go to any market related site and read about the bloodshed on wall street, that of consumate professionals…So if you believe some part time real estate investors are making outrageous profits and the best of the best are dying in the streets then I have bridge for sale cheap…

YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED…FOLLOW THE SHEEP AND YOU SHALL BE SLAUGHTERED…

103

“Stocks under $5 are viewed as GARBAGE on Wall Street”

Man…it must STINK there NOW!!!

Using that logic, I guess a whole LOT of INVESTMENT BANKS are GARBAGE NOW too???..But hey…THEIR RUN BY THOSE “PRO’S”…RIGHT??
(That’s called sarcasim Rookie…Go ahead…Fire one back :beer)

I have a different opinion…

I’ve been investing my OWN money for over 20 years. I’ve taken profits from BOTH Real Estate and Stocks. Those profits have been poured into a commercial real estate portfolio that is CONSERVATIVELY estimated at between $8 million and $10 million. It consists of self storage warehouses, industrial buildings, and a few recently aquired residential homes.

I purchased my first commercial building with the profits from CHRYSLER STOCK that was purchased in 1992. From my experience…You can take EVERYTHING you have ever READ, or been TOLD about investing in stocks and FLUSH IT!!!

If the EXPERTS were REALLY EXPERTS, why have so many of them had their @sses handed to them this year??? Why did the EXPERTS PILE into CDO’s that are now WORTHLESS??? Why did the EXPERTS lever their companies 40 to 70 TIMES??? If THOSE are the smartest guy’s in the room??? WE NEED SMARTER GUY’S!!!

Listening to some people here, you would think you need an Ivy League Education to successfully invest in stocks…YOU DON’T.

Want to know what (stock market) investments I made this year??? (2008) 3 investments…That’s IT…I purchased WAY out of the money PUTS on USO in late June. The USO is the United States Oil index…It didn’t take an EXPERT to see a few things…If any of you care to wander through my previous posts you can read these ideas for yourself… They were posted when OIL WAS around $130/barrel!!! I actually sent Rookie a DETAILED PM of this investment when oil was in the high $120 range.

Here’s what a DUMB Firefighter saw the the EXPERTS missed…

I watched FIREFIGHTERS I worked with trade in F-150’s BY THE DOZENS to buy Honda CIVICS, I saw ARTICLE after ARTICLE in newspapers that said RIDERSHIP on PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION was up 500%!!!
I saw people STAYING HOME on vacations so they didn’t have to spend $4.30/ gallon for GAS…IN other words, I saw FUTURE DEMAND for OIL DROPPING…I saw an ECONOMY weakening.

The options I purchased in USO went up 3 TIMES in value and I SOLD them. If I had KEPT them they would have eventually went up 10 times in value…BUT, a 300% return is hard to bitch about. Maybe a PRO could have got the 1000%.

Number 2…FORD OPTIONS…LOT’S OF THEM…Those and a nice PILE of Ford STOCK at sub $2.00 levels!!! STILL own it ALL…CAN NOT WAIT for all the “Wish I had’s” in 5 years from this bad boy!!!

Number 3…A short postion in QQQQ …June 09 $20 PUTS to be exact… I don’t think this market is ANYWHERE NEAR it’s bottom…Job losses are just NOW starting and THEY…like EVERYTHING ELSE in this economic DISASTER, will be FAR, FAR worse than the “EXPERTS” are predicting. WATCH!!!

Here’s what you need to understand…IT’S NOT HARD if you OPEN YOUR EYES!!!

This economic event has been UNDER ESTIMATED AT EVERY LEVEL!!! HOUSING, OIL PRICES, COMMODITES, BANK FAILURE RATES, INVESTMENT BANKS DISSAPPEARING…
EVERYTHING…

If you believe… After a track record like THAT…The “EXPERTS” now have a handle on FUTURE UNEMPLOYMENT RATES??? YOUR KIDDING YOURSELF…

The BOZO’S are SEVERELY underestimating how bad JOB LOSSES will get in this country…JOB loses are EVERYTHING!!! This will be the LAST SHOE TO DROP…Do you realize that estimates for unemployment at the PEAK of this recession/depression are only 7 to 8% :shocked :flush
Watch…before it’s over…we WILL HAVE unemployments levels WELL OVER 10% EASILY…EASILY…That 2 to 3% difference is GIGANTIC!!!

Job losses are like a DOG chasing it’s TAIL…They KEEP GOING…Layoffs from the Plant down the street lead to layoffs and loss of business in restaurants, retail stores, hardware stores, car dealers, EVERYTHING…
When I hear the NIT WITS talking about NOW being a GREAT TIME to buy STOCK??? I just shake my head…

Here’s the key to investing…DON’T DO IT…UNLESS, there’s SOMETHING to do!!! The ONLY advantage guy’s like us have is knowing when NOT to play the game. I wait for the ODDS to line up in my favor by a BIG margin…People here see Ford as a RISK…I could NOT disagree MORE… This company WILL NOT be allowed to fail…It actually leaves me speechless to hear people talk about BANKRUPTCY for FORD…IT WILL NOT HAPPEN…BECAUSE NO ONE…Let me repeat that…NO ONE is going to BUY A NEW CAR from a BANKRUPT MAKER!!! The BEST PART though…The absolute BEST PART…is how all the PRO’S turn their backs on this investment…It makes me LOVE IT even more!!! I cannot tell you how well I sleep at night knowing all the PRO’S are RUNNING away from this stock!!!

3 trades THIS YEAR…2 of which I still OWN… UP 300%!!! NO dreaming here…just REALITY.

104

Using that logic, I guess a whole LOT of INVESTMENT BANKS are GARBAGE NOW too???..But hey…THEIR RUN BY THOSE “PRO’S”…RIGHT??

Ok you asked for it and my response will be short…

First off the pig business of RE investing caused this mess by the Democrats forcing the regulations of banks to lend to high risk individuals…I don’t hear you say one bad word about Barney Frank or Chuck Schumer for strong arming the industry to lend to these people…Or did I miss your posts about that?..Didn’t think so…Banking was and will be once again a very profitable business once they get back to lending to people with high credit and assets,instead of broke individuals…

Now the issue of your DREAM trading…You love to take credit for trades AFTER the fact…This stock goes down %60 then you magically had 9000 puts from some unheard of level…Granted you claimed to WANT to short oil,never did you announce a signicant position in put options…But once again magically you take credit for owning massive amounts of USO puts AFTER the fact…Then to make matters even more unbelievable you claim to have a HIGH 6 figure account that is up %300…So I should assume that you had a couple hundred thousand bet on options…Your entire account?.. :bs :bs :bs

Any experienced trader worth his salt would never and I mean NEVER push all the chips on the table for any bet…I manage a 7 figure account (personal) and I would never risk even %25 of my net worth on any bet…It’s called capital preservation…Had you said I bet 20k,30k I MAY HAVE believed you…But you had to say you bet it ALL…You bet the entire blanking farm,the entire enchilada on OPTIONS… :bs…Total BS…Naked shorts none the less…The highest risk move there is in the industry…And to make it even more comical and unbelievable you were shorting USO at $94 oil…So I’m to believe that you kept adding to your short while oil squeezed your ball$ off…Essentially watching your account vanish (6 figures at that) before it miraculously went up %300… :bs

To end this nonsense I want you to give specific trades,entry prices,symbols on options or stock BEFORE hand…End this months after the fact * I made a miracle happen * trading…Because I don’t believe any of it…And anyone stupid enough to believe it deserves to have their money vanish…

There is little doubt that you clearly have some knowledge of the equity markets and you are intelligent but my father always told me to believe none of what you hear and half of what you see…I respect your profession,my brother in law is FDNY and I admire that but I have to highly question the rest of your chirade…

Like I said ANNOUNCE entry dates,time,prices,symbols BEFORE you make any trades and I will STFU…

105

Ok Rookie…

First off…I NEVER said I used EVERY SINGLE DOLLAR in my trading account to buy puts in the USO…NEVER SAID THAT…I STILL have the email I sent you WITH THE DATE when I mentioned this trade to you…The DAY that email was sent oil traded at $128/barrel…that’s a FACT. You can tell people whatever you want, but it’s hard to argue with a dated email and a POSTED closing price.

Here’s the intersting part to me…According to your logic, there is NO WAY I could have withstood the price move AGAINST those USO puts when OIL moved to it’s eventual high of $147…Yet…I STILL hold my postion in FORD???

You obviously would have BAILED OUT on those USO puts…THAT WOULD HAVE BEEN A MISTAKE…Like your prediction that…

McCAIN would pull out a surprise WIN :shocked

FORD would be sent to the secondary market because Kerkorian had a MARGIN CALL :shocked

OIL was headed to $200/barrel :shocked

YOU WERE WRONG ON ALL OF THOSE CALLS… I don’t CHANGE my opinions based on what 15 other “smart” guy’s in a ROOM are doing.

As far as my political beliefs???

NO ONE CARES…

There’s enough BLAME here (on BOTH sides) to fill a STADIUM.

FINALLY…

The most recent open position I have is in the June 09 QQQQ $16 puts (1000 contracts) purchased on 11/12/08 at .50

I will also enter a LONG TERM STOCK postion in GOODYEAR TIRE.
The stock has been HAMMERED…OIL and RUBBER prices have falllen through the FLOOR in the last 3 months. This will drop Goodyears COSTS BIG TIME, yet you can be SURE their TIRE prices WILL NOT drop…I will be BUYING TODAY!!! The stock closed at $5.42 on Friday.
I’ll be sure and let you know EXACTLY when and at what price I get in…This will be an INVESTMENT, not a TRADE…so if in a week it is trading at $4.00…I…will NOT be BAILING OUT. (I don’t have to worry about all those “smart guy’s” breaking my b*lls about an open postion)

106

Like I said ANNOUNCE entry dates,time,prices,symbols BEFORE you make any trades and I will STFU…

107

These are some good discussions. I think the key points being made are that:

FDJake is investing based on common sense. I like that approach because my own experience in the stock/options market is that it is nearly impossible for a small investor to invest on fundamentals because we are always lacking the whisper information that the big boys like RookieNYC have as a result of being in the business. So, trading Ford stock based on the political assumption that Ford will not be allowed to file bankruptcy is a good common sense trade. The further assumption that the new democratic administration will try to protect those union jobs at Ford and therefore do a bailout is also common sense. Of course, common sense can go right out the window when you’re talking about politicians in Washington, and therefore I think EVERYONE should be careful about where they put their money.

RookieNYC is a professional trader and is providing an excellent warning about the very real risks associated with trading in this market. Even the VERY BEST traders on Wall Street have had great difficulty this past year and NO-ONE KNOWS WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN THE FUTURE. His point that you shouldn’t bet the farm on a single position (or even a few positions) is excellent advice. This market (and our ecomony) could crash and stay down for MANY, MANY years because of the underlying sickness of our country. It’s happened before.

Finally, I like the idea that those that are trading stocks or options to post the entry dates, time, prices, and symbols at the time they actually make the trade. That will be fun and we can all see how everyone does. I encourage everyone that is trading to participate and to add their rationale for the trade to their post.

Mike

108

Hey Mike,

Rookie and the “PRO’S” will think this is a “GARBAGE STOCK”, but this piece of junk made me some REAL MONEY the last time it hit $5.00. Check out the 10 year chart…

http://finance.aol.com/charts/the-goodyear-tire-and-rubber-company/gt/nys/classic-charts

You gotta love the outright ARROGANCE that NO ONE but “Pro’s” are smart enough to make money investing.

SIMPLE IDEAS, executed at a time when they are WALKING AWAY will hand them their @sses EVERYTIME!!!

Scroll down to the bottom of this page and read how much RAW RUBBER PRICES are falling!! Don’t forget to add in plumeting STEEL and OIL prices too…TIRES = OIL, RAW RUBBER, and STEEL!!

http://www.dawn.com/2008/10/26/ebr18.htm

109

Mike,

Here’s almost everything we’ve been warning about…

http://gnn.tv/headlines/18774/Celente_Predicts_Revolution_Food_Riots_Tax_Rebellions_By_2012

110

11/17/2008…Goodyear…20,000 shares purchased at $5.44/share!!!

Talk to me in 2 years…I’m not interested in hearing BS next month if it’s at $4.00. I’ll be buying more.

111

FDJake,

I think you are right that Goodyear (GT) has some potential, but I’m betting that I will be able to buy it at $3.50 per share in the near future (at least that’s what the charts are saying to me).

I believe that this market fundamentally changed last week when Paulson spoke (as I wrote in an earlier post). We now seem to be in a SLOW GRIND lower. I will be very surprised is we can hold 7,700 on the DOW much longer. If you look at a 20 yr chart with monthly bars, we’re at the 200 (month) moving average. Where’s the support below here? Very minor support at 7,200; a little better support at about 5,500; then pretty good support at about 4,000 on the DOW. If things get bad enough for food riots and squatter rebellions, then we’ll be a LOT lower than we are now.

Mike

112

Elliot Wave Theory says…

DOW 1000 :shocked :shocked :shocked

Super Cycle Bear Market.

113

Got an article reference on that DOW 1,000? I’d love to read it.

Mike

114

I just wanted to add one thing here…

I have a HUGE amount of RESPECT for Rookie…The guy’s a SELF MADE MAN!!! There is NOTHING that I respect more than someone who can take NOTHING, and BUILD it into SOMETHING OF VALUE…

He does that FOR A LIVING!!!

I wouldn’t last 2 SECONDS in the enviroment that he makes LIVING in.

I have strong opinions, so does Rookie…Hopefully these occasional debates we have, bring something to this site. It’s about stating opinions, theories, and thought processes, then WATCHING how things play out…

I enjoy sparring with him because he’s SMART…It brings my game up a notch when I KNOW he’s gonna break my blls. This is a by-product of being a Firefighter…Breaking blls is an ART FORM where I work.

My guess is things AREN’T much different on Wall St. :beer

115

I actually get a lot from these discussions. Whether it’s RE or stocks, you guys have a lot to offer through these discussions. Thanx for the insight.

116

fdjake (and others),

what are your comments on this article?

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/Extra/gop-to-detroit-drop-dead.aspx

117

I don’t think it matters. The Dems have already signalled their intention to bail out the Big 3 (really the unions and union pensions). So, what Bush or the Republicans want is basically irrelevant. The real risk is whether the public gets very upset about the bailouts and puts pressure on the government to stop bailing everyone out.

Mike

118

ok all the BS aside…fdjake I will deal with you later …kidding…

I’m starting to pair into International and American etf’s here…Only %10 of my total portfolio…

EEM,EFA,EWJ,EWH,EWT,EWM,EWS,FXI,IFN,MOO,INP,QLD,SSO,DDM,RSX,URE,USD,UYG,UYM…

I firmly believe that %10 of my money has to be in equities…I have a %90 CASH position otherwise…And yes I’m taking a small amount of heat on my entries here…But thats what you get buying into blood…I will try my best to hold these but I think international especially Asia has been beat to piss…Russia also is down %75 YTD…RSX…

I bought everything at about 3:51 pm with one basket order…Basket order is one stroke of the key and I get filled on everything …

I’d like to also add that I like High Yield Debt and High Yield Bond Funds here but I missing the cajones to be attached to holding periods of mutual funds right now…Even if I bought closed end funds now they are too illiquid for these markets and seeing %10 price swings sickens me…So I may have to pay up at a later date,but hopefully we can all laugh about these prices next year…I’m not saying we will but I just truly feel things are overdone enough for me to allocate %10 of my money into this mess…Especially interantionally…American markets may very well see %10-%15 more downside but who knows…

119

The problem as I see it, Mike, is the gov’t is offering the Big 3 $25 billion in loans IF THEY RETOOL to make more fuel efficient vehicles.

How can they afford to retool when this video says GM will RUN OUT OF MONEY in 6-9 months?!? The are hemhorraging $2 bil a month.

This is a tough one to me, but I agree with you guys that the gov’t CANNOT let the Big 3 sink!

120

REMEMBER…GM DOES NOT have the product pipeline FORD does…

I wouldn’t go anywhere NEAR GM stock…Our economy is on the rocks. You don’t want to buy ANY American car company, you want the one that is BEST positioned when this mess is history. Ford has lower cash burn rates than GM, a BETTER UAW contract, and the cars coming here from Europe are ALREADY selling like hot cakes there.

Chrysler is GONE…Hyundai is the latest “buyer”. Cerbius can not dump this turd quick enough. They’ll get eaten up little by little or sold at Fire sale prices…

My best estimate is we are left with just Ford and GM.