Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!

Random Ramblings
61

Make that 4 people,well sort of…I traded it last week and sold size at $8.42…I took .23 on the trade but I had a boatload…Way too many to post here…It definitely bothered me to see F going up like it was without me getting any of those free dollars…I’m watching for a possible swing play on it but the markets seem bothered by $123 per barrel oil all of a sudden…Other than that sticking to my high yield debt plays…As the banking situation improves spreads will tighten and high yield debt plays will increase in value as they have been doing for weeks…Buy em when they hate em…

I’m long ESD,IGR,JRO,PBF,PFN,PGH,PGP,PHD,PHF,PHK,PTY,RIT,SPHIX,FAGIX,FFRHX…median yield of this basket is about %11…Pays monthly dividends…And they have gained about %20 or more from their Jan 2008 lows… :bobble

That list is what I bought into the bloodbath earlier in the year…I also posted my entries and sent private messages to propertymanger and allagash providing details of my entries as I bought them…I’m also long massive size on the QQQQ avg price low 42 area, this too was detailed in earlier posts…

62

That would be 5 buyers… I’ve liked Ford for a long time… more than 1-2 years. Search my post somewhere about their turnaround… remember that slogan “quality is job 1.”

Everything is cyclical, people. The key is knowing where in the cycle you are.

Rookie, FD, when I’d previously owned F, I bought it in my ROTH and held it. It seems like the better way to play this now is options…

Am I going it about it the poor man’s way by D.C.A. into long-term holds?

Thanks.

When do we start the stock investor’s forums? lol

63

If it is to be a long term hold, DCA is the way to go. I suggest buying one-third of your intended position now, then one-third on the next dip, then the last third when it dips again. In the absence of external market forces, dips usually happen just after the stock goes ex-dividend.

64

Real new,

It all depends on your situation. I’ve been buying the long term options thanks to Rookie’s advice. He correctly pointed out that inorder for me to buy 20,000 shares of Ford stock I would have to lay out somewere around $165,000 in cash. The problem I have with this is, I could use that cash for my rehabbing investments which consistantly return around 40% for me.

By using Rookie’s method of buying LEAPS (long term options) I was able to purchase the right to buy 20,000 shares of Ford stock all the way out to January 2010 at $7.50/share for only $25,000!!
At that time I’ll exercise those options and buy the stock. Meanwhile, I’ll continue to buy houses with the $140,000 I DIDN’T have to spend on long term Ford stock.

The key here folks is I FIRMLY believe that not only will Ford return to profitability, but they will become a HUGE success.

Alan Mullaly isn’t FIXING Ford. He’s building an AMERICAN version of TOYOTA. Do some research. This guy used TOYOTA as a model for BOEING when he was there. He is VERY WELL RESPECTED at Toyota. It’s widely known that Toyota OPENLY assisted him in redesigning Boeings manufacturing processes. By using the Toyota engineering and manufactoring model, Boeing shaved 30% off the time it took to construct a passenger jet. Their stock went from $20/share to $110.

What’s being done at Ford right now will be talked about for DECADES in business schools.

Someone book mark this post. I can easily see Ford stock at $60 to $70/share within the next 5 years.

Folks…That’s HUGE return

Porsche did it. 1000% return

Chrysler did it. TWICE!! 1000% return

Ford did it (in the 80’s) 1000% return

VW did it. 1000% return

These opportunities DO NOT come around everyday or every year.
When they do JUMP on them.

65

Dollar cost averaging is smart and extremely effective over all time frames…The long term investor always has an advantage using DCA…But make sure you aren’t chasing good money after bad by adding to a losing battle…How does one know?..I like to use DCA on the index etf’s more so than a stock…When I say index etf’s I mean the SPY,QQQQ,DIA…When I trade a stock I want to be right asap…I don’t want a waiting game,I want a cushion of $$$ for me to sit on…But if I’m trading the index (QQQQ,SPY) I typically have a good feel for the range of wiggle room I can tolerate before I stop out…The scenario changes drastically between how many shares you are holding…No matter the investor or trader everyone has a line of pain they don’t want crossed…

To answer Realnew…
Like fdjake said it all depends on your personal preference…

66

hmmmm

67

Ahhhh you bought the common and are lashing out

68

So what do you think of those Ford options now? Today I think I saw them at .60

69

The big problem with Ford or any other auto company is that they might be allowed to declare bankruptcy. I don’t believe that the government will allow them to completely fail, but will they be allowed to declare bankruptcy and then reorganize? If so, the common stock is wiped out. If I was confident that Ford would not declare bankruptcy, I would buy some at these levels. However, if we do enter a steep recession or depression, I am not at all confident that Ford (or any other domestic automaker) will buy cars.

Mike

70

The $2.50 Jan 10 options are so tempting at these levels. They’re priced at where the $7.50 Jan 10 options were a very short time ago when I was looking at doing this. I agree though. It appears to be a huge gamble right now. We don’t know where this bailout stuff will stop. I think Mike’s scenario is very realistic at this point. As people buckle down, many will keep their current cars if they’re paid off. Others may get cars with better gas mileage, but something like a late 90’s Accord/Camry/Corolla may be the car of choice rather than buying a brand new car in the current climate.

71

I just bought another $60,000 worth…That’s what I think.

I’ll ask what YOU think next week when those options are at $1.00 and that $60K is $100,000!!!

Or I guess I could have purchased a home, rehabbed it, listed it for 6 months, went through 8 people to find ONE who could QUALIFY for a mortgage, then watched as a home inspector blows up the deal …All to make what these options will pull within 7 to 10 days.

This market is setting up for a quick rally that will pull the faces off the shorts.

Watch…it’s coming…

And Brian…I’ll be sure and let you know what I think.

72

I put in an order to buy Ford at $2.10 and then I plan on selling a Nov. $3.00 covered call for $.60. That will get me in the stock for $1.50. I’m just playing this for a trade. I still am not sure that Ford will be able to avoid bankruptcy.

Mike

73

Another tidbit of advice is to consider the underlying necessities of what the company (Ford) produces (cars). Cars need tires and steel and rubber and plastic and upholstery and radios and glass and batteries etc. etc. Also, cars break down and need repairs and maintenance, i.e. lube, muffler and repair shops. If Ford does well, so will all of these contributing companies.

74

Here’s a nice company for ALL you guy’s to take a long look at…

COOPER TIRE

Here’s the back story…

PROFITABLE COMPANY…made $315 MILLION last year.

Oil prices combined with explosive raw rubber prices absolutely KILLED this stock.

Funny how things change…

When raw rubber prices hit never before seen highs 2 years ago EVERYONE with an acre of land in Indonesia starting planting. This, as usually has now lead to a GLUT of raw rubber supplies. Combine that with a GLOBAL slowdown and rubber prices are droping like a rock. The NEXT biggest part that goes into making a tire is OIL…Looks like OIL may lock LIMIT DOWN today!!!

So…what do we have here??? We have a PROFITABLE company (I’m sure they’ll post a crappy quarter in NOV.) BUT…Cooper tire makes REPLACEMENT TIRES!!!

These are the tires that people buy when the ECONOMY SUCKS and they have to replace their EXPENSIVE GOODYEARS inorder to get their car INSPECTED!!!

OH…one last thing…

THEY PAY A .42 CENT ANNUAL DIVIDEND, which at the current stock price of $6.50.share equals a rate of 5.30% WITHOUT ANY appreciation of the underlying stock price!!!

Take a look at a 3 year chart of Cooper Tire. (CTB)

This is like picking up money off the floor!!!

YOUR MISSING THE OPPORTUNITY OF YOUR LIFE TIMES!!!

FORD is NOT going to file bankruptcy…WHY???

THEY CAN’T…These companies ARE NOT BANKS…Your all missing this…
The STOCK PRICE has NOTHING to do with the business model. Ford secured lines of credit in 2006. The stock price WILL NOT force a bankruptcy. IF they DID file…THEY ARE DONE as a company…NO ONE, NO ONE will buy a car from a BANKRUPT maker. THEY KNOW THIS. Mulally said TODAY…Bankruptcy is NOT an option for a car maker.

Imagine this scenerio…

13% Inflation
21% Prime rate
13% Unemployment

This actually HAPPENED…it was called the 1970’s take a look at ford stock price during this time…Then tell me their going bankrupt…
SAME CIRCUS…DIFFERENT CLOWNS.

http://www.wikinvest.com/stock/Ford_Motor_Company_(F)/WikiChart

75
This actually HAPPENED...it was called the 1970's take a look at ford stock price during this time.....Then tell me their going bankrupt..... SAME CIRCUS.....DIFFERENT CLOWNS.

I hope you’re right, I bought Ford at $2.10 today and the morons on the options exchange didn’t execute my call order, even though I put the order in at the market (when it was 52 cents). I may cancel that order and wait for Ford to go up if there is a rally next week and then sell the call (that would be a better play anyway).

Mike

76

Does everyone still feel the same about Ford after Kerkorian just dumped 7.3 million shares at a loss of about $500 million?

jmd_forest

77

I was trying to avoid this topic but personally I feel it can only be bad news…Why on earth would Kerkorian take a $500 million loss on Ford at $2.15 a share???..There is simply no way to spin this into a positive…Kerkorian has gotten his b**** kicked in severely hard and severely fast with Ford…His exit on GM was flawless at $35 a share,so he is very much in the know…The issue from what I have read is that Ford will take double to triple the amount of years to turn around due to economic downturn…So Kerkorian is doubling down on his Las Vegas holdings that will likely rebound much more aggressively than Ford…IMHO Ford has always been and always will be a highly speculative play…If you have a decade you may do well,but it will be like watching grass grow…In fact grass will grow much faster than Ford…This is why I don’t like making recommendations on buying individual stock,it’s simply impossible to know what will happen…Whenever a stock is cheap its cheap for a reason,and when stocks get under $5 its like the kiss of death…

78

In my opinion, this Ford play has nothing to do with cars and everything to do with the Government. This is a bet that the government won’t allow Ford to file bankruptcy and it’s a risky bet. Right now, everyone is being bailed out. However, people on Main Street are angry (including me) and at some point bailout fatigue may cause the government to allow companies to fail once again.

My plan on Ford is to attempt to own the stock free by selling covered calls on it over the next few months. I bought it at $2.10 and ended up selling the $3 covered calls at $.54, meaning that I’m in the stock at $1.56. With a little luck, there will be a rally each month that will allow me to keep selling covered calls each month. IF I could own the stock for free, then there’s no real risk. It’s the same concept as buying rental properties at a HUGE discount.

Mike

79

Kirk didn’t buy his Ford shares with CASH, he purchased the stock with LOANS from Bank of America. In order to GET those loans he had to put his shares of MGM up as collateral. He was about to LOSE those MGM shares in a margin call.

Here’s the whole story…

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/oct2008/db20081021_531630.htm?campaign_id=rss_daily

80

fdjake,
Lets call it what it is…Kerkorian dumped Ford…He took a massive stop on a losing trade…Now he is trying to unwind the rest of his position…Mazda is also following suit…No trader takes a $500 million loss if he is the slightest inclination a bounce is imminent…No trader I have ever met in my life…kerkorian has plenty of funds to meet margin calls and he chose to LOSE and not double down yet again on a losing investment…there is no spinning this move…