What comes next ??????

Random Ramblings
1

About 3 years ago, myself and a few other wack jobs here started warning people about the upcoming IMPLOSION of our Dream World Real Estate market…These warnings were met with almost unanimous
LAUGHTER, RIDICULE, SHOCK, AWE, and more than one offer to “step outside.” (My personal favorite!)

It made me SLEEP LIKE A BABY at night!!!

The mere FACT that so MANY people (the HERD) completely DENIED what was looking them dead in the eye convinced me that we would indeed see a collapse of property values in this country. And we did…

IT HAPPENED…It’s STILL happening…Right on schedule!!!

BUT we all know that…TELL US something we DON’T know Jake…Don’t waste my time with stuff I’m living through.

Ahhh YES…How times have CHANGED???

What…What’s changed???

SENTIMENT…My friends…S E N T I M E N T…The most IMPORTANT indicator in the HISTORY of the WORLD…and it has CHANGED…BIG TIME!!!

NOW…EVERYONE thinks it’s OVER…We’re SCREWED…FINISHED…DONE…ANARCHY…DOOM…GLOOM…
There are so many CHICKEN LITTLE’s here now…I can’t step outside without an umbrella…I LOVE THAT!!! It can only mean ONE THING…THE HERD…ONCE AGAIN…ON CUE…IS ABOUT TO BE W R O N G!!!

If you simply READ these forums…SENTIMENT is LOUD and CLEAR!!!
IT’S S C R E A M I N G!!!

And I’VE NEVER SLEPT BETTER!!! :banana :bouncemulti :elephant

Almost without EXCEPTION…When EVERYONE thinks things will get WORSE, it usually signals the start of a MAJOR turning point in history.
I believe we are at EXACTLY this point now.

The PLANET…Not CHINA…Not the USA…Not India…

THE PLANET EARTH…

Is about to embark on an economic explosion that will make the Industrial Revolution seem like a small period of economic growth.

Countries that 10 years ago had never seen a CELL PHONE are increasing their standard of living at rates NEVER BEFORE SEEN…
China, India, Brasil…BILLIONS and BILLLIONS of PEOPLE…and WHAT do these people want???

They WANT…All the CRAP AMERICA is great at PRODUCING…I’m not talking about things of VALUE…We got out of that business years ago…I’m talking about CRAP…JUNK…GARBAGE…LITERALLY…

What happens when you take a population off SUBSISTANCE FARMING and place them in FACTORIES for 12 hours a day???

They no longer have TIME to grow their own healthy food…So they BUY McDonalds HAMBURGERS, Kentucky Fried Chicken, They drink COKE out of VENDING machines at the FACTORY…They don’t have TIME to make their own clothes so they shop at WALMART!!!

Just think of the BILLIONS of people on planet Earth…All getting FAT, Getting diabetis, High blood pressure, CANCER…Sure they’ll all LIVE longer…Hooked up to OXYGEN, taking a dozen pills they never needed 2 decades ago…But they’ll get what they WANT…

PERCEIVED VALUE!!!

That’s what most DOPEY Americans have…PERCEPTION…The PERCEPTION of SECURITY…THE PERCEPTION of SAFETY…The PERCEPTION of WEALTH!!!

Get ready folks…The NEXT BOOM is coming…It’s GLOBAL this time…The USA is gonna show EVERYONE how WE did it!!!

I’m not joking for a SECOND here…The GROWTH over the next 20+ years will make your brain hurt…WE spent the last 75 years in this country learning how to FEED our people CHEAPLY and QUICKLY with MINIMUAL NUTRITION and EFFORT…THAT is where the next BOOM will be. The USA is going to FEED the PLANET…Sure, everyone will be FAT and UNHEALTHY…But screw them…No one here is MAKING them eat BIG MACS right??? We’re just PROVIDING THEM…C H E A P!!! OK…OK…We’ll put a nutrition label on the food (in small print) that basically says eating a cigarette butt is probablty better for them. But who reads that crap anyway…

Think of the POSSIBILITES…CREDIT can be extended to factory employees…They can go into DEBT to buy cheaply built homes…(maybe the CHINESE won’t be allergic to their OWN dry wall like those stupid Americans in Florida)

Like I always say…

You play the hand you’re DEALT…It might not be the hand you WANTED or the hand you LIKE…But you play what you HAVE.

Legendary Investor Jim Rogers said it best…

In the next 20 years the FARMERS will be driving the Ferrari’s instead of the Wall St. guys…

100% right Jim…100%

2

As one of the “wack jobs” that also talked about the impending real estate implosion, I will have to partially disagree with your assessment of the future. While I agree 100% that China is rapidly rising and will become the next superpower, I completely disagree that the US will prosper. In my opinion, we’re far past the best days of this country and I believe that we are destined for third world status. It says in the bible that the debtor is the slave to the lender. That says it all.

We’ve been going through a series of bubbles, increasing in frequency and severity. The real estate bubble was/is bad, but it is NOTHING like the next bubble - which is a debt/government bubble. Let’s face it, the government is OUT OF CONTROL. This is not a Republican or Democratic issue - they both are guilty. We’re spending money that we can not repay and we will be paying a HUGE price in the near future (in the form of a collapse). The healthcare bill is a perfect example. ANYONE that believes we can insure 30 million more people and save $500 Billion Dollars IS A MORON, yet that’s what the government is telling the sheeple. The bill for living beyond our means (for decades) will soon come due. In addition, we have an increasingly large portion of the population that is too lazy to work thanks to the socialists (both republicans and democrats) in Washington. The bottom line is that the jig is up!

I firmly believe that the US is close to collapse (within the next 2 or 3 years) and will become nothing more than a second rate country. We will have civil unrest and the country could easily break into pieces. Civil war is also a good possibility. China and other countries that are on the rise will probably demand more goods and services, but all our social engineering (minimum wage, health care reform, welfare, section 8, cap and trade, etc) will price us out of those markets. All great countries have a beginning, a period of greatness, and an end. We are at the end!!!

When will this happen? It could be any time - all we need is a trigger!

My suggestion: stock up on food, water, guns, ammo, gold, AND pay your debt down as much as possible. It’s going to get UGLY!

p.s.

NOW........EVERYONE thinks it's OVER........We're SCREWED.....FINISHED....DONE.....ANARCHY.....DOOM........GLOOM..... There are so many CHICKEN LITTLE's here now.....I can't step outside without an umbrella.........

I forgot to say that I disagree with this statement also. I believe that the consensus now is that the recession is ending and that a return to normalcy is right around the corner. That’s certainly the message the White House and traditional media are pushing.

3

FDjake,

I give you credit for Ford (and thanks), but I have to agree with Propertymanager in that they are pushing that the recession is over, etc. and Geithner is out there telling everybody that we will have positive job growth come spring…

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20091223/D9CP7CC01.html

In it, he actually says - “I think most people would say the economy actually is strengthening now going into the end of the year” - so, if we follow your contrarian view on this, should we then expect things to get worse?

Then again, Summers said that if we passed “stimulus” last year that we would see positive growth by this past summer. The “shovel-ready” projects weren’t actually “ready”. I read an article recently where Greenspan was saying we are getting ready to go into a fiscal crisis NEVER seen before… and he said this just recently… Who knows at this point… because they ALL continue to get pretty much ALL the forecasts wrong.

On the one hand, I HOPE that your contrarian philosophy plays out over the next 20 years and we have an economic boom, but looking at it from another perspective, I think the US is in for a world of hurt because of the debt.

What alot of people don’t seem to understand, is that the US is on an up-cycle for EVERYTHING (goods from China, Energy, interest rates, etc.) getting ready to cost much more than they are ready to handle. There have been many efforts to keep prices artificially low on MANY industries. We import so much from China BECAUSE it is CHEAPER… period. Problem is, when the “Dragon ascends”, along with it will come INCREASED prices for the US, as China is systematically built themselves into our economy on many different levels. This will also be a factor with India and South America. Add to it, the opening of world-wide taxation, and it doesn’t look rosy overall. Great for some segments, not so much for the rest…

The savings rate is on one hand is higher than it has been in decades, but foreclosures CONTINUE to set records.

With the dollar being smashed, China has stated that the WORLD can no longer continue to buy treasuries to fund such “irresponsible debt”. When you have your MAIN creditor, who RELIES on your dollar increasing for their investment to work, not only telling you that you are being “irresponsible”, but saying the WORLD can no longer keep giving you money, some major red flags go up.

As with everything, time will tell on this… let’s just HOPE you are right that we are getting ready for a 20-year worldwide expansion…

4

Let’s not confuse GOVERMENT PROPAGANDA for REAL SENTIMENT.

TALK to people…REAL WORKING PEOPLE…They don’t think things are getting better…The POLITICIANS are selling that line…The MAJORITY of Americans think things are WORSE…Goverment debt IS growing. BUT jobless claims have dropped EVERY SINGLE MONTH since peaking early this year. But the PEOPLE (the herd) don’t see this. Which is a GREAT contrarian indicator. It was a GREAT indicator RIGHT HERE 3 years ago, and it’s a GREAT INDICATOR NOW…These boards are now FILLED TO THE TOP with DOOM and GLOOM!!!

I LOVE IT!!! THANK YOU, THANK YOU, THANK YOU!!!

Another BEAUTIFUL example or the HERD mentality??? At EXACTLY the time when BANKS are paying SAVERS the lowest interest rates in HISTORY…AMERICANS are now SAVING more than EVER!!!

Do you SEE a PATTERN developing here???

I don’t put a lot of faith in ALAN GREENSPAN…He, after all, helped orchestrate the housing boom and collapse by ENCOURAGING Americans to use “New types mortgage products” Alt A, Interest only, ARM’s ect. He has now literally become a laughing stock. But you are right…ALL their forecasts are just about worthless.

You both mention the coming INFLATION…That is EXACTLY how a country drops it’s debt levels…They INFLATE their way out of debt… Inflation ERASED 50% of our national debt post WWII.

Let’s not forget the OTHER method that works wonders for these problems…That’s W A R!!! Nothing like a BIG GLOBAL WAR to RESET economies and create BOOMING GROWTH!

Here’s an interesting PROBLEM China has…They OWN trillions of dollars worth of U.S. debt. If they talk TOO MUCH about their desire NOT to buy more…Their current investment in that debt gets hammered. China and the USA are LOCKED UP…If one dies, it takes the other with it…They NEED us, WE need them. It’s going to be far easier for them to WORK with us than it will be to create a problem. TOO MUCH MONEY AT STAKE.

Case in point…JAPAN…Remember how the EXPERTS warned us years ago that JAPAN would over take the U.S. ??? How’d that work out??? The DOW went from 5000 to almost 15,000 while the Nikkei has been DEAD MONEY for decades…As a matter of FACT the term LOST DECADES comes from Japanese investors who saw their money ROT…This in a country with WORLD CLASS businesses, savings rates, and economic power. The USA has CRUSHED the rate of return that your money would have got had you bougth into the “JAPAN IS BETTER than us” propaganda.

If the US didn’t buckle last winter in the face of the greatest economic disaster in our lifetimes…It ain’t happening next year. Houses are now selling for OVER the asking prices…Housing prices in my area are FINALLY RISING, Unemployment levels are dropping (slowly) Home sales are UP 63% in my area year over year.

In 2005 people were CAMPING outside of condo sales offices in order to buy as many units as they could. If you went there then and told them they would all SELL those new condos 3 years later at .30 cents on the dollar, they would have laughed in your face. The HERD was SMARTER…They KNEW what they were doing. But in the end…They lost their @SSES!!! AS USUAL.

NOW…The SKY IS FALLING!!! NOW…Not in 2005 when they could have PROTECTED THEMSELVES and SOLD their REAL ESTATE then bought it back for HALF PRICE in 3 years. Not in 2007 when the dow was 14,000 and they could have SOLD at the highs…NOPE…The HERD see’s the SKY FALLING NOW…in 2009!!!

YOUR A DAY LATE AND A DOLLAR SHORT FOLKS!!!

I’m going on the record…RIGHT NOW…As I did with FORD…YEARS before the HERD saw the turnaround lurking in the shadows there.

The next 20 years will see the biggest growth this country has EVER seen as an entire PLANET wakes up…ECONOMICALLY. The U.S.A. has EVERYTHING these countries will need to expand, from FOOD, to WATER, to technology, to BANKING, to WILLING BUYERS of their PRODUCTS.

You guys both bring up solid points…Everyone of them has merit and god knows I’m not always right…

I just posted this as MY observations…I respect and appreciate yours too! :beer

We’ll see how it plays out…I’ve made my moves already!!

5

I certainly hope your right Jake. You seem like a smart fellow. I do agree with Mike and PO’s predictions, however, I obviously hope im wrong. Ide love for the best years of my life to be in a booming period for the USA, but I just dont see it. The debt/spending/inflation were seeing now has never been seen before, so I believe this is uncharted times.

I guess only time will tell.

6

Fdjake,

"You both mention the coming INFLATION…That is EXACTLY how a country drops it’s debt levels…They INFLATE their way out of debt… Inflation ERASED 50% of our national debt post WWII. "

Here is the danger… China WANTS us to raise rates for a greater return on their holdings in the USA, but it is a duel-edged sword, as if the Fed tips it too high, it will go past increasing returns to counteracting itself through inflaction. which is why I believe they are not raising interest rates. China is looking at us spending at record rates at near-zero Fed-rates and they continue to want assurances that they will not get burned… The negative effect of this, is slower-growth (which is one of the reasons why China is balking), and faster inflation when they do start raising rates, which will affect EVERYTHING and make things more expensive.

As China increases it’s world supplier status, we go from a dominant market to important market. So they are looking past us long-term, as they view the government AND the people as addicted to easy money and don’t believe we will change… They KNOW that long-term low-interest rates are not in their best interests, whether it comes to their close to $2 TRILLION they have loaned us, their US assets or Trade… They lose out long-term, which is one of the main reasons why they are pushing for higher rates.

In any case, I agree with you that you have to position yourself now for what is coming… I am HOPING that you are right and we are going to benefit from a 20-year global boom, but unless ALOT of pieces fall right into place, what is more likely is that we will continue to slowly grow out of our situation.

Alot of guys I know, who are actually employers have trimmed their staff to the minimum and are not taking on new employees even though they are seeing a slight improvement (but it is sporadic). Their main reason is they don’t know what to expect from the government (i.e. - healthcare, increased taxes, etc.), so they are playing it safe after having been stung this past year. I imagine the big companies are playing with the same issues on a different scale, and doing with what they have.

The unemployment numbers are a little bundle of fudging IMHO, as they do not take into account those who have given up, given early retirement packages, etc… and with this new BS of “saved or created” paradigm, noone has any confidence.

But, one saving grace. is that the money is building up (savings rate), and unless people have changed, which is unlikely, that money will make it back into the market sooner or later. I am still concerned that we are experiencing more record foreclosures with the highest savings rate we’ve seen in decades…

7

Excellent points.

I agree with a lot of what you’re saying.

Remember…and this is an acknowledged FACT…Banks held back on foreclosures inorder to let inventory levels get absorbed. This wasn;t done out of the goodness of their hearts, it was done to keep WAVES of properties from coming on market at the same time. This was actually a very good strategy. I think a lot of the foreclosures we are currently seeing are some of that investory being let out.

But…We made a hell of a mess here for ourselves…No doubt about that…Cleaning it up ain’t gonna be pretty or easy…But America is a CASH COW…The WORLD knows this. That ain’t changing anytime soon. Just look at the topography of CHINA…Not a lot of FARM land there. 3/4’s of this country can grow FOOD…by the TRAIN LOAD…and we do it BETTER, FASTER and CHEAPER than anywhere else…China ain’t making anymore land. As their popuation move to industrial economies…THEY’LL NEED THAT FOOD…THEY KNOW IT…and WE KNOW IT…

Like I said…China and America live and die together.

8

The facts are that Medicare was in reality broke long before the ridiculous Health Care Reform bill that the socialists are pushing. The government is NOT going to SAVE even one penny via health care reform and in fact Medicare will simply be destroyed sooner. Medicaid is already a disaster. Social security is broke. The states are broke. The underlying problem here is that America and Americans have been living way beyond their means for decades. Our socialist “progressives” have instituted a giant welfare state that has created a huge lazy population (at least 25% of our population, although the actual numbers are VERY DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN - I’ve tried). That population feels they are entitled to live off the few Americans that are still productive. The socialists, by pushing the entitlement mentality, have DESTROYED the African American community (why doesn’t anyone call that racist???)! The socialists have forced MILLIONS of our jobs overseas with their excessive taxation and over-regulation. The coddling of the unions have DESTROYED our automobile industry and caused most of it to be nationalized. The Congressional Black Caucus, in concert with the socialist social engineers, destroyed the housing industry. This country is a DISASTER and getting worse by the day. The country is simply fundamentally broken.

Combine that with the fact that we have a socialist in the White House who is hell-bent on “social and economic justice”, which are the buzzwords for taking money from middle class America and redistributing it to the groups that “The Chosen One” chooses. Obama is purposefully DESTROYING the middle class. The bailouts of the past year have been the biggest transfer of wealth TO THE UBBER RICH in history. It was nothing more than a giant ponzi scheme.

Our problem is that we have gotten FAR away from the principles on which this country was founded. You can’t have fewer and fewer people that work paying for a constantly increasing number of entitled deadbeats.

Let's not forget the OTHER method that works wonders for these problems......That's W A R!!!!! Nothing like a BIG GLOBAL WAR to RESET economies and create BOOMING GROWTH!

On that we can surely agree. The US has a giant problem. We’ve created an entire class of non-productive deadbeats and they’ve got to go! Would the government create the conditions for a war for the purpose of eliminating 25% of the population? YES - THEY WOULD! As FDJake said, that won’t be a skirmish like Iraq or Afghanistan, it will be a MAJOR war, quite possibly with nukes.

9

what comes next?

some sobering stats:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/brace-impact-2010-private-demand-us-fixed-income-has-increase-elevenfold-or-else

-Mike

10

Excellent article and just backs up what I’ve been saying - it’s all a giant ponzi scheme with absolutely nothing to back it up. The big question is what happens during and after the collapse? Global war? Civil war? Dictatorship? Rioting? Food shortages? I wouldn’t want to live in a major city during a real crisis! It will get ugly once law breaks down!

11

Propertymanager,

Unfortunately, I believe that one of the reasons that the populace has and is being conditioned for reliance on government is to increase their capacity for enslavement vs. defending their rights. To make it easier to begrudgingly go along vs. object. They weaken the self-reliance muscle to the point where they cannot deal, or even worse, WANT to comprehend issues beyond their lives. Makes it all the more easier to have the government step into the vacuum.

Not to pick on anyone individually, but look at Furnishedowner, her answer to pretty much everything is the government, and even WORSE, now a GLOBAL government, and she doesn’t even RECOGNIZE her socialist leanings. I don’t believe this is by mistake.

We’ve had Presidents in power who have warned us against the domestic threats that were growing over the years (i.e. - Fed, MIC, etc.), and yet these warnings weren’t heeded… The media plays a HUGE role in this, and why I believe the internet has become so important… and WHY they have placed CONTROLS over the internet in the governments hands. Google plays nicely with ALL governments for a reason…

The institutions who were bailed out this past year, had a RECORD bonus year during our “worst financial crisis since the depression” :rolleyes… what does THAT tell you? It tells me that the BILLIONS handed out to AIG, for example, ONE company, they did NOT need US to borrow to give to them… While I agree that they had to pay it out contractually, WE did NOT have to fund it… that is THEIR responsibility, and once you do it for one, MANY line up at the trough for their “fair share”… AIG was not the first, nor will it be the last…

All that has been done here, is EXACERBATE the problem… COMPANIES will CONTINUE to access the country’s ATM (i.e. - the taxpayer) until it is drained dry, and in the end, weaken us so to point that a “world government” will be the ONLY solution according to the government that the people have been CONDITIONED to place all their trust in… CONTRARY to what the FOUNDERS of the government exhorted us to do, which is NOT to trust government…

The leash was taken off decades ago, and the government beast is devouring everything in its path, and now there are not only LESS people to stand in its way to RESTRAIN the beast, but they have people instead cheering it on and saying to leave the governmental beast alone, as they RELY on it for the scraps it throws to them BECAUSE they have been conditioned NOT to do it for THEMSELVES!..

12

Most here know me to take the other side of fdjake on just about everything he says…I have even gone to great lengths to avoid this forum because of past feuds with my like minded friend but on this issue I have to agree with him…I dont think the end is near and I infact feel we may see a slight pullback in equities %20 or so but the future is alot brighter than most will realize…Its not uncommon at moments like this in our history to feel the end is near or around the corner for that matter…But imho its unprecedented time to buy real estate (if bought correctly) and to start to nibble on stocks long term…I have always preached dollar cost averaging for the average investor and I stand by that…Many of the people I work with including myself have made tons of money this year…tons…I could easily walk away now and retire at 39 but imho we are setting up for long term growth period that may not start until 2011-2012 but imo this is a buying opp not an exit opp…I am seeing more oppurtunity in this environment than I wished for in the prior years…Forget stocks…Real Estate and Hard Money Lending has made me a lot of $$$ this year…And allagash and I have corresponded via email somewhat throughout this year and buying at the darkest moments has yielded me over %70 ROI YTD…When you have the biggest whales of our time stepping up to the plate you piggyback…

13

rookieNYC,

I don’t think anyone is saying that the US will stop making money and prospering… after all, ALL economies do this no matter the political structure… the question is what political structure will we end up living under, how much misery will we suffer in the process and what will that do to our standard of living? If your standard of living goes down, it becomes hard to argue that we are prospering… unless we are redefining prosperity… a little 2 + 2 = 5…

In every market, there is opportunity… but what concerns me is long-term… it seems conditions are set for inflation (even hyper-inflation), and with the added costs of energy, high unemployment, etc., everything is getting ready for an expensive shift… as a result, long-term growth will be stifled…

The dollar may end up benefiting from all this, but there are other factors in play there also…

I’m not at all convinced that this wasn’t purposeful… Watching who got paid during all this, the argument can be made that it was…

One thing I agree with both you and FDjake on is that there is opportunity out there…
As far as the end being near… it’s going to have to get alot worse than this for that to happen… unfortunately, I also feel that people will have benn conditioned to the point that they will rely only on the government to fix it…

14

In my mind the question isn’t what political structure we’ll live under…That constantly CHANGES in this country. Right now things have swung to the left…That happened because things had swung too far right…It is also interesting to note that AFTER a Republican President (Hoover) presided over our entrance into the DEPRESSION…He was immediately replaced by a DEMOCRAT who started Social Security and other BIG Goverment programs (exactly what we have now). His successor was eventually replaced by a REPUBLICAN (IKE) who went on to preside over the single biggest economic BOOM this country had ever seen!!! The CORRECTIVE PROCESS is ALREADY underway here. Look at Obamas poll numbers…They are falling FAST…Never under estimate how fast people in this country change sides…This constant churning is what re-invents this country every few decades. I wouldn’t spend my time worrying about our system of Goverment. Spend that time looking at WHERE the REAL MONEY is being INVESTED.

What WILL matter to YOU and your FAMILY is whether you PROSPER or SUFFER in the coming years…I understand that Positive is passionate about his feelings regarding his country…That’s a good thing…It’s a GREAT THING…Just keep an eye open for the OPPORTUNITIES that are about to unfold here…Because that is EXACTLY what happens during the darkest hours. Opportunity didn’t present itself in 2006 when real estate was at never before seen levels and idiots were camping out in FLORIDA to buy 2 or 3 pre-construction condos (remember the MEDIA accounts of all the MONEY these people were GOING TO MAKE?)…Those people got CRUSHED…The REAL OPPORTUNITY is NOW…At the EXACT TIME people are RUNNING away from Real Estate and the MEDIA is telling us it’s better to RENT!

Another thing you ALWAYS want to remember about living in the USA…Our laws are written by MILLIONAIRES…Millionaire Congressman…It cracks me up when people start talking about SIMPLIFYING THE TAX CODE…Are you kidding me??? That tax code is INTENTIONALLY written the way it is, to provide LOOP HOLES to RICH PEOPLE…Obama couldn’t change that if he HAD TO…TOO MUCH MONEY at STAKE…and THE MOST IMPORTANT MONEY TOO…RICH POLITICIANS MONEY!!!

Will I pay MORE in taxes over the next few years??? ABSOLUTELY YES!!! I will also MAKE MORE during this BUST than I have in my LIFE TIME!!! I live in a State were MORONS believe what they READ IN NEWPAPERS and watch on TV!!! They call me EVERY WEEK BEGGING ME to buy their “worthless homes” from them…They believe what they are TOLD…
DON’T DO THAT!!! It’s BAD!!!

It’s SIMPLE…When you read ARTICLES in national newspapers PRAISING the BENEFITS of R E N T I N G R E A L E S T A T E over BUYING IT…FOLKS…Believe me…PLEASE…That is THE BOTTOM!!! NO doubt about it…When the MEDIA starts telling the HERD they should be RENTING at a point in time when PROPERTY is DIRT CHEAP…BUY AS MUCH AS YOU CAN!!!

It’s your choice folks…Follow the HERD or DON’T…But remember…Throughout recorded HISTORY the HERD has been WRONG…Don’t let all this NEGATIVE SENTIMENT fool you…When EVERYONE is telling how BAD it’s going to be…FLARES should be going off in your head, SCREAMING at you…The HERD is WRONG, the HERD IS WRONG…ALWAYS WRONG!!!

15

I’ve had this same conversation with people about america’s agriculture as opposed to Japan/China.My father in law builds alternative fuels plants for a company,they are building these all over the country right now for years to come.

I really hope you are right FD,and as Glenn Beck says “I hope I’m wrong”,and sincerely mean it.I just fear at this rate of spending,it has to come back to bite us.I just read Fannie/Freddie are getting more $$ and will get endless support.I fear our country is being slowly sold (including our agriculture land)right in front of us in the form of debt.

I guess we’re at the crossroads of survival though.I personally am still investing in real estate,just very conservative.I figure if we are on a downward spiral,why not throw all chips in and try for the best.If we are headed for disaster,I can’t stop it by just waiting on it to happen.

I’ve lost one partner to the scare,and I can’t blame him.But I sat down with another one and said if we all are doomed due to the decisions of a few,let’s put up the biggest fight we can and keep going.What do we have to lose?=everything,well we have everything to gain then if it works out.

I say march on as FD said,we have no choice really.Just make good well thought moves.

16

FDJake your an interesting guy. Don’t really know what to think of most of what you said, but about the Real Estate part, no doubt now is the time to buy, if you can get a loan! I can’t! My bank told me not to waste my time anymore. That isn’t stopping me though. I am working on a deal right now, a BIG deal, on mobile home park right up the road from my house. I’ve known the owner for years, and he wants out, and i’ve wanted his park for years too. He is moving to costa rica because this country is “done” in his words. Though i’m VERY nervous about taking on such a huge expansion of my rental business at this time in the economy, maybe it’s the best time? Working it at your angle might get me the best deal of all time for me. It won’t be hard to convince him it’s a buyers market and he will have to finance it. I know he is gonna want to lease it to me, but I just don’t see any benefits in that.

Well thanks for your views, it’s one the reasons I visit this board

17

FDjake,

I don’t view being passionate about the country’s direction and at the same time taking advantage of opportunities that present themselves or are found as mutually exclusive. After all, the Founding Fathers did both and they ALSO put their fortunes and lives on the line in the process WHILE they were prospering…

“In my mind the question isn’t what political structure we’ll live under…That constantly CHANGES in this country. Right now things have swung to the left…”

Yeah, I get and agree with the pendulum theory… there is a difference here… Picture a pendulum on a desk… if the pendulum were to swing one way, it would slide it that way, swing the other, and it negates the original move… however, if the pendulum swings too much one way it brings us to the edge and eventually over it. I would argue that the swings to the left have not been “corrected” by swings to the right as the left swings have been more severe, and incrementally (through “gradualism”) it has brought us to the edge in many ways distancing us from our founding. When Congressman OPENLY say that they don’t follow the Constitution, the pendulum needs to be corrected…

“What WILL matter to YOU and your FAMILY is whether you PROSPER or SUFFER in the coming years…”

I totally agree BUT the government that we and our children have to live under plays a MAJOR role in the prospering and the suffering. When you watch how easily it has become over the years for people to be manipulated (we all have to some extent, right), it is a HUGE concern… we have to DEFEND the Constitution, and it takes more than arms… it takes diligence… sometimes self-interest needs to be put aside in the aggregate… What good is a life spent becoming rich, especially when the government TAKES most of it when you die, when your kids suffer in the process from future tyranny and/or oppression? I would argue that we are in the condition we are in BECAUSE people just want to live their own lives in apathy instead of stepping up.

If the government wants to steamroll their way through, a single rock (citizen) is not going to alter their path… it will roll right over him… but if the rock is joined by more like-minded rock, it presents a force… it takes MANY rocks opposing the path to STOP the steamroller and/or redirect their path…

Continue to extract opportunity and riches from the country, that is what it is here for and backed up by our unalienable rights to Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness… but don’t forget that it also comes with a price…

18

Great points…Especially about how the patriots literally put everything they had on the line to build this country.

As far as the pendulum goes…I disagree…This country has seen FAR more problems in the recent past than we face now…The DEBT is HUGE…But think about the 1960’s…Kennedy is assasinated, then King, then Bobby…We look back on that time in horror…IMAGINE LIVING THROUGH IT…the MANSON family, Kent State…The drug culture…It must have looked like this country was DONE!!! But the country and the economy EXPANDED…During the darkest times…America GREW…IMAGINE…Just imagine watching these people KILLED one after another…Whether you agreed or disagreed with their politics…It doesn’t matter…Political figures were being wiped off the face of the earth at a rate never before seen in this country. WE SURVIVED IT…We’ll survive this…

Look…The Dems have their shot RIGHT NOW…They’re BLOWING IT…That will be reflected in the mid cycle elections…People in this country have had it…IT HAPPENS OVER and OVER here…That pendulum swings and swings…That’s were people get screwed selling the United States short…They don’t understand that the CHINESE can’t REPLACE their entire GOVERMENT if they screw up…WE CAN…AND DO…It’s a brilliant system…It’s ugly at times…But NO ONE has come up with BETTER…The CHINESE??? THAT is a PONZI scheme…The whole show is RIGGED…Wait till that cracks wide open…It’s coming…WATCH!!!

AS for TAXES…The Goverment can only TAKE what you LET IT TAKE…

Look at how WEALTHY individuals hold their Real Estate…It’s all in TRUSTS…None of these people are about to do what AVERAGE AMERICANS DO…Let the GOVERMENT determine who gets what, when, and how much…Those decisions are made YEARS before…the TAX CODE is used to THEIR ADVANTAGE…as is the LEGAL SYSTEM.

As I said…The tax code in this country is complicated for a REASON…Just like our judicial system is…Those that can AFFORD good tax planning GET IT…Those that can AFFORD good legal representation GET IT…I didn’t make those rules…BUT…I DID make the SACRIFICES early on to ASSURE I was in that group…It was a FREE CHOICE…Given to ANYONE in this country willing to work hard and sacrifice…I know millionaires that have been in this country for only 15 years…They broke their B@LLS getting what they have, and did it through back breaking work, not hand outs…They now enjoy the same level of TAX ADVICE and LEGAL ADVICE as I do…THEY EARNED IT!!! They have very little concern for future tyranny, as do I…The only tyranny these business men face is in their HOMELANDS…I talk to people all the time who CAN NOT believe the sh*T Americans complain about…They can not believe how we DO NOTHING in a land that can provide you with EVERYTHING!!!

That’s my POINT…Don’t go around with your head in the sand at EXACTLY the time this rocket is about to blast off…The last 100 years were all USA…Those 100 years made many other people filthy rich in other countries too…all on the coat tails of the USA.

Pay attention folks…It ain’t even close to being OVER here…TOO MANY PEOPLE EXPECT IT…The HERD is buying GUNS & AMMO…They’re buying it with their .30 cents on the dollar FLORIDA CONDO MONEY!!!

THINK

THINK

THINK

19

I’m all for doing everything you can to get ahead. I’m sure that all of us on this forum that are successful are doing exactly what FDJake advocated: using entities and the tax system to our advantage; buying real estate at huge discounts, etc. However, I completely disagree that things will swing back to the right and make everything ok. I also completely disagree that the US is in for a huge boom. Finally, I still don’t think the American people have ANY idea what the government is doing to them; their children; and grandchildren. THE USA IS BROKE! It’s just that simple. Our best days are behind us and our children will pay the price. The government has not prevented a financial catastrophe - they’ve just postponed it and made sure that the collapse will be EVER MORE DEVASTATING! Let’s get real here. The banks are NOT making money in a capitalist sense, they have only “recovered” because the Fed is loaning them money at nearly ZERO percent and they are loaning that money to the Treasury at 3%. Fannie and Freddie are selling their toxic assets to the Fed and the government just announced that Fannie and Freddie have a blank check. IT’S A PONZI SCHEME THAT WILL END AS ALL PONZI SCHEMES END - IN COLLAPSE!

I am not hearing that from the general public. The general public thinks that everything will be ok and they are still acting accordingly. Everything will NOT be ok. I am predicting a financial collapse and civil unrest AT A MINIMUM and a revolution is a good possibility.

20

All this talk, at a minimum, has caused me to want to be even more aggressive in paying down debt - both personally and for our business. It still didn’t stop me from putting in an offer on another place today that I think is a good value. I’m also going to continue fully funding our IRAs as we can never go back and make that up if we miss it.
I do think we’ll have to slow down our acquisitions for a couple reasons. I don’t think our bank is going to keep making loans to us at the rate we’ve been doing them lately. Our rapid expansion lately has caused our account balances to dwindle quite a bit.
I’m starting to notice more houses sit on the market at our price level than what was there a few months ago. Whether that’s directly related to lending, winter time, or fear - I’m not sure.