We have Now Hit the Bottom of the Real Estate Market.?

General Real Estate Investing
1

We have now hit the Bottom of the Market?

Ok, as some of you know and for those of you who don’t
I invest in Real Estate on a full time basis. I just love the stuff and
can’t imagine doing anything else, at least right now, but I must say
FDJake has got me thinking about Stocks. Anyway . . .

I use www.ReiClub.com on a weekly basis for information as well
as run two forums myself and also belong to almost every forum on the net
dealing with Real Estate except BP (long story) and most of the major
networking sites as well, (My Space, Face Book etc) so I get message’s
almost daily from people in ALL walks of the Real Estate Life. So you can
say I am also a full time networker and I know a ton of people. Some that
are good and some that are bad and some just plain Crazy!

Well, today I noticed about 5 or 6 e-mails, messages and post etc. where
NAR is saying we have Hit the Bottom of the Market now and things
are now on the way up?

OK - What Market Where?

Since a lot of you are out there in the trenches doing deals on
a daily basis and NO ONE knows your market better than you do…

Would you please answer the statement “We have now Hit the bottom
of the market” as it pertains to your own market?

Is this True or False and Why? :huh

2

How in the hell do you do full time real estate and the forum stuff as well???

Let me tell you my day today just to make a point.

6:30 AM, wake up, eat check email out the door by 7:15.
Arrive at my latest apartment around 7:30.
Begin by ripping down handrails and put up new ones on unit A and B.
Paint the cabinets in unit A. Get paint on my phone because it won’t stop ringing. Also get paint on my gun holster because my shirt doesn’t hang down like it should.
Phone rings off the hook all the time of course, mostly about my closing tommorrow, but two are prospective tenants who sound OK.
Run over and show house to one prospective tenant, other one can’t see until around 7PM tonight.
Go Back to apartment.
Do some electrical work on Unit A. Then Pull off 3 pieces of rotten siding. Recruit neighbor boy to paint the handrails I just replaced with white kiltz paint. Make note that I need to adopt a mexican boy like this to work for me.
At around 2:30 PM I take a lunch break at my fav. local mexican joint just down the street. I go to wash up in the bathroom and notice my shirt is inside out. I flip it around.
At around 3:15 I am in lowes. I see another landlord and we shoot the sh%t for a moment.
At 4:30 I am back and continue doing odds and ends until around 6:30. Then I leave and go show the house to the other prospective tenant. He seems great and I give him an application. I can’t believe he would live in this neighborhood, but sure hope he works out when I check the application out. We laugh about some “private dancer” business cards we found in the garage. The previous tenant that lived there (who was great and always paid on time) turned out to be a stripper. Wish I would have found that out before she left.
So I finish up with him, then weedeat the grass at this house, as it’s empty and my responsiblity. I have a truck with a huge tool box and trailer so I always have what I need right on me.
Get home at around 7:30, check email, and drink beer and waste my time talking away on this forum.

That is my day if you care. Now how in the hell could I do anything else?

3

Wallace,
Sounds like maybe some propaganda or wishful thinking from the NAR… Sure this may be true in some markets, but I wouldn’t believe that statement as a far-reaching generalization for the country. For the two markets we’re currently dealing with, one just has prices that have stalled while the other one has had some drops.
There are a few SFHs moving for about $35K in our new market, but also a ton of them to choose from as well.
Neither of our markets are in or have been “hot markets” with a big run-up. Prices remain reasonable, but things seem to sit on the MLS for quite a while.

John,
Funny post. Sounds like a busy day. So that’s what your time off from flying is like…

I’m on here so much now because I’m overseas. I plan on being very hands-on like John when I get back. My wife is currently checking out some properties in our new market. We might even get our first experience with a short sale soon. I’ll let you know.

As a side note with the possible short sale. This is looking EXACTLY like what fdjake has described with the next bout of troubled home owners. This guy bought the house for about $30K 6 or so years ago. Then he decided he’d take some money out of his “equity.” Now he owes almost $50K for a house that’s not worth nearly that much and he’s a couple months behind…

4

In Prince William County, VA, the prices are still coming down. This trend will probably continue for another year.

5

It’s a great change of pace from sitting in a cockpit sippin sodas at 32000 feet.

6
Well, today I noticed about 5 or 6 e-mails, messages and post etc. where NAR is saying we have Hit the Bottom of the Market now and things are now on the way up?

Yikes…Consider the source.

Grasping for straws.

-Mike

7

How in the hell do you do full time real estate and the forum stuff as well???

Let me tell you my day today just to make a point.

OK John, I will try to respond inbetween your schedule and show
you in an average day in the life of Wallace Hobbs. If I can think of
what an average day is for me as you have done here?

6:30 AM, wake up, eat check email out the door by 7:15.
Arrive at my latest apartment around 7:30.

[b]I have No Alarm clock so I get up when my body feels rested. It is different
most days depending on IF I have early meetings. Most time I never schedule
a meeting before 11 am, except with Addison my Sydney based Web master since
he is 12 hours ahead of me.

I do schedule daily call backs to folks who are either some of my
fellow Nouveau Riche students or return request for information e-mails and calls to see
if the person is someone who is serious and wants to really learn and work and not
just push a great product for a quick buck. Maybe 20 calls a week or less I guess?[/b]

[i]Begin by ripping down handrails and put up new ones on unit A and B.
Paint the cabinets in unit A. Get paint on my phone because it won’t stop ringing. Also get paint on my gun holster ~ YIKES Whats with the Gun John? because my shirt doesn’t hang down like it should.

Phone rings off the hook all the time of course, mostly about my closing tommorrow, but two are prospective tenants who sound OK.[/i]

My phone rigns a lot as well, and 90% of the time I do not answer it. I listen to the message and most times I turn it over to the person on my team who handles whatever the call is about. 10% of the time I will return the call and spend all the time I need to speak to that person if it is a serious prospect that deserves my attention. I do accept Faxes a lot (hint its in Dan’s Book)

Run over and show house to one prospective tenant, other one can’t see until around 7PM tonight.
Go Back to apartment. Do some electrical work on Unit A. Then Pull off 3 pieces of rotten siding. Recruit neighbor boy to paint the handrails I just replaced with white kiltz paint.
Make note that I need to adopt a mexican boy like this to work for me.

[b]OK first off I have several properties all over the USA so I do not do the work myslef, plus I suck at it (Trust me I tried to do a few of my own first flips) Again I push a few buttons and maybe will call one of my property managers in what ever city or state that handles my properties there, or I have them call handy men to do minor repairs. Like today I got an e-mail that a closet rod was broken, and the threshold on the garage door was comming, up and the Tennant wanted ME to cut down a tree or tree’s in the backyard of my 4/2.5/2 Charlotte NC, One Year Old house.

So I call my PM Kim, and approved Jamie to repair it, and ask the tennant to send me pics of the trees and I would access it. (Hint: I will say if I approve the Tree removal I will ask her to pay for it or at least half to see IF she is serious)[/b]

[b]So by now it is say 11:30 am, I jump on the computer, check my E-mail and return a few to some of
the other Real Estate Investing Site owners I received today as well as Many Ohters and log onto My Space and see out of the 5000+ contacts if anyone sent me anything worth while, check my Group 24,800+ to see what post are new and repsond to maybe a few of them. Check my private MREG forum 1,000+ members to see the post and what new properties and deals have been posted over the last day, and may buy a property from a wholesaler in Menphis TN for 50% on the dollar (turn key rental property).

I also Log into the dozen or so other Real Estate Investing forms to see whats new, like on www.ReiClub.com (I just lurk now on BP and few others now) and check out FaceBook and see if my 600 contacts have sent me anything worth reading. I also write articles, Blog and of course post on several sites but Not BP[/b]

I also review about 3 to 5 deals each day that come accross my desk and do my due dillegence then pull the trigger or Pass very quickly. (Hint: The is the Part I enjoy the most in Real Estate Investing)

At around 2:30 PM I take a lunch break at my fav. local mexican joint just down the street. I go to wash up in the bathroom [u]and notice my shirt is inside out. I flip it around. [/u] :help

I usually take a break when the phone rings again around 3pm and walk down to my kitchen to heat
something up in the mircowave and read Real Estate publications while doing so or a Real Estate Investing or management book and sometimes return a few of the important calls. Sometimes I will drive to Quizno’s or maybe WaWa for a sandwitch

At around 3:15 I am in lowes. I see another landlord and we shoot the sh%t for a moment.
At 4:30 I am back and continue doing odds and ends until around 6:30. Then I leave and go show the house to the other prospective tenant. He seems great and I give him an application. I can’t believe he would live in this neighborhood, but sure hope he works out when I check the application out. We laugh about some “private dancer” business cards we found in the garage. The previous tenant that lived there (who was great and always paid on time) turned out to be a stripper. Wish I would have found that out before she left.

John some guys have all the luck

[b]Around 4pm my wife gets home from her 9am to 3:50pm part time insurance job and we talk a bit about our day. She is also my business manager and handles all the bills and payments that need to get out. I don’t enjoy the bill paying, just the spending part so she handles this for me. Well maybe I do have some good luck after all. Now its 5pm (Right Now) and look I am back on the computer usally until dinner time at 8pm is when I shut my office down/b]

So I finish up with him, then weedeat the grass at this house, as it’s empty and my responsiblity. I have a truck with a huge tool box and trailer so I always have what I need right on me.
Get home at around 7:30, check email, and drink beer and waste my time talking away on this forum.

I have landscappers for all my properties that need it OR my tennants cut the grass or like on my Hawaii properties etc, the HOA does it. I do cut, Trim, Rake and blow off my Own residence, well because I am a perfectionist and NO landscapper in my area can do a decent job. Trust me I have Fired 5 of them ove the years. Most have no clue how to take care of a yard. (Side note I do have Lawn Doctor and the owner does my grounds and he does a great job and the yard is like a golf course a lot of the year)

Also I am a Big No Limit Texas Holdem player (played in Vegas recently) and my wife and I ride bikes and take hand in hand walks along the bike paths around our house before dinner some days and we normally hit the Gym 3 times a week for an hour or so. Right now not as much because we have been on vacations so much lately and are going to OBX again on the 12 for 10 days. Then back home and back to work till Thanksgiving I guess?

John, For me is it not about the money, (Tim told me I should focus more on making the money today) it is about time freedom and the fact I enjoy Real Estate Estate Investing and seem to be doing pretty well with it but always eager to learn and do more.

That is my day if you care. Now how in the hell could I do anything else?

[b]John,

I must admit I feel exhausted from just reading your post as you can see
above I tried my bes to show you what my days are mostly like. Of course
just like you no two days are alike.

First I suggest you read Dan Kennedy’s Book below, then read it again
and put at least 55% of what he says to use in your daily life. Trust me it
will help you and your business.

http://www.amazon.com/No-B-S-Time-Management-Entrepreneurs/dp/1932156852

Here is a Success Quote I am reminded of.

(Note I had started a Topic on Quotes but it got
to big and Tim said he had to delte it. So Keith told me? Maybe I should start a new one since the old one had over 3,400 views at last look?)

“Give the Busy Man a job that needs to get done and he will find the best way to see that it gets done”

Or something like that.

John, I really enjoyed reading your most entertaining post and as as long as you are happy and
really enjoy what you do on a daily basis then I am very happy for you! :cool

On Dan’s book I really got some Great Ideas from it and since Mark Evans sent me a copy of it so if you really will read it them PM me your mailing address and allow me to buy it for you today and send it to you.

All I ask in return is your honest feedack on it and if you find value in it just pass it on to
someone else who is as busy as you are.

IF it does not rain on Sat I am going to Philadelphia to see the 1st annual RED BULL Soap Box
derby. I have always wanted to see one of these crazy events. I will take some good pics I hope!

Enjoy your weekend
[/b]

8

What is a red bull soapbox??

Also, I am 27 years old. I do these crazy days one after another so that when I am 35 I don’t have to anymore. My idea of a good life is working a few days a week and sitting around drinking beer and listening to bluegrass music every night.

Thanks for the offer for the book, but i’m a hardhead in my ways so I don’t think it would help me much.

John

9

Bottom of the market is just a bunch of crap.

Some markets have not even seen a price decline. To think the entire America is experiencing 30% price declines is to be naive and stupid.

It’s not like 1986 when a law passed that effected every single property in every single state.

10

Tien,
This information comes from the NAR. If I recall correctly, they have an economist on their staff. A little while back I was following his opinions on a monthly basis on the current state of the real estate market and where it was headed. He was NEVER right. What a joke!

JP

11

John,

Suprised at 27 you have not heard of Red Bull. A lot of folks drink it.

Anyway here is the link with all the info on it. Hope it does not rain
on Sat so we can go.

http://www.redbullsoapboxusa.com/Philadelphia-2008/default.aspx

12

You are not going to see a bottom in housing with UNEMPLOYMENT hitting levels not seen since 1980!!! This will also begin affecting people who, up till now, have been able to buy or keep paying for their homes. Unfortunately this will also affect landlords as job losses begin to create problems for tenants paying their rents.

Remember this…As massive as this real Estate BOOM was on the way UP, the BUST will be inversely massive on the way DOWN!!!

JOBS LOSES = CONTINUATION OF LOSES IN REAL ESTATE VALUES, and possibly an accelleration of those price declines.

Did you see the jobs report today??

August job loses climbed to 85,000
July was revised UP to 75,000
June revised UP to 100,000

That makes the 8TH STRAIGHT month of job loses this year. You have to go back to 1980 for anything comparable.

These job loses will continue. This is like a dog chasing it’s tail. Each industry effects another, and on and on.

Our economy is following a very predictable pattern of the Boom/Bust cycle.

Last week the FDIC annouced it had increased the number of Banks on it’s watch list from 80 to 120!! When Indy Mac failed it cost the FDIC $8 BILLION out of a $50 Billion fund. If ONE BANK took almost 20% of that fund and we have 120 banks on credit watch, we aren’t even CLOSE to a bottom in ANYTHING yet.

“This is a GLOBAL slow down and it will be much longer, and much worse, than most people expect.” Those EXACT words were spoken last month by…

WARREN BUFFET :shocked

13
Unfortunately this will also affect landlords as job losses begin to create problems for tenants paying their rents.

You got that right! I had six tenants this month that didn’t pay on time and got a 3 day notice today. I expect all of those but one to pay (with the $50 late fee), but it’s still a disturbing trend. In my business, occupancy is very high - SO FAR, but evictions are rapidly picking up. In addition to the increasing job losses, I am VERY concerned about the effect of skyrocketing utility costs on renters this winter. As I understand it, the electric company in our area has asked for a 30% increase in rates effective January 1st. Combined with high fuel costs, food costs, etc - it could be a disaster for many tenants (and landlords).

Mike

14

Which state and city do you live in property manager?

15

Central Ohio

16

The NAR will also state that property prices have never fallen.
What they do not factor is the relation of property prices to inflation.
When this is taken into consideration, property prices have fallen many times over the past 100 years.

The NAR’s job is to help their Realtor’s broker properties. It is in their best interest to see the end of the housing slump.

The construction industry, the NAR, most borrowers and the mortgage industry all want the government to step in and stabilize housing prices. The challenge is, housing prices do not need to be stabilized, they need to come down. We are over inflated.

With a week dollar, an unstable oil market, a country at war and unemployment rising…it is very difficult to believe we have seen the bottom of the housing market.

Consumer confidence in Real Estate is at an all-time low. Many of these aforementioned factors will improve first, before Real Estate picks up again.

The world economy depends on American consumption. Without our homes to use as piggy banks for reckless spending, consumption has been dwindling, therefore increasing unemployment.

Is the worst behind us…not even close.

Matt Gerchow

17

Well said Matt