The banks win

Banks made loans to people who could not afford to pay them. This did many things for the banks. Follow the math:

I’ll give you a home price of $100. This is just for easy math, and so we can go from dollars to percentage points and back.

So, there really was no news about NINJA (no income, no job no assets) loans back in 2006 when things were flying high. This kind of activity really did not come to light until the credit crisis evolved.

The banks were able to falsely inflate the value of a $100 house to $200. They did this by creating an artificial demand; a demand which would not exist unless people were being given loans which they really did not deserve.

So, along comes a homebuyer. The homebuyer pays 5% down for the $200 home, then proceeds to pay 6…5% interest for 3 years. The credit freeze occurs, the home price falls to the appropriate value of $100, then the buyer defaults. The bank then, thanks to stricter lending standards requires a 10% down payment, and again, gets somewhere in the neighborhood of 6.5% interest for the next two years.

So, right around 2010 or 2011, this is how this played out:

First buyers down payment (5% of $200) $10
First buyer’s 6.5 % interest on $200 for 3 years $39
Second buyer’s down payment (10% of $100) $10
Second buyer’s 6.5% interest on $100 for 3 years $13

In 5 years time, 72% of the buildings value has been recaptured without considering principal balance. That’s 14.4% annual return. Not bad considering the federal discount rate has been hovering between 0.5% and 0.75%.

Please also consider that at this point, the principal balance has only been paid down 2.25%.

Also realize that the $72 presents a tax burden to the bank, but the wealth (97.75%) ownership of the building does not present a tax concern.

In some states, the bank has full recourse and can sue the original buyer for the remaining $100. In no recourse states, the bank has full recourse to sue the original buyer for the remaining $100 if the mortgage was refinanced (let’s say to add a $50,000 kitchen.)

Further, there were probably garbage fees that the bank charged on all transactions. The bank probably had money in an escrow account for taxes and insurance and the original note was probably insured against default by someone like AIG, who was bailed out by the American Taxpayer.

I would argue that many, many people are not defaulting on their loans because of a loss of income; they are performing strategic defaults because it makes absolutely no sense to be a lifelong debt slave for a mortgage that is twice that of every other mortgage in the neighborhood.

Legislation is being put in place to pretend to try to resolve this situation but the number of people who actually benefit from these programs is so low that these so-called foreclosure prevention measures amount to a charade considering that they are statistically insignificant.

I don’t claim to know absolutely everything about all aspects of the preceding transactions. I do know enough to realize when an enormous wealth swindle has taken place, possibly the largest one in the history of the world.

If, after half an hour, you haven’t figured out who the patsy is, then you’re the patsy
-Warren Buffett

The REAL WINNERS are US!!! Real Estate investors

The real lesson here for REAL ESTATE INVESTORS is simple…

When you see people Literally CAMPING OUT in front of sales offices so they can get their DEPOSITS in before the entire condo project sells out…

RUN AWAY!!!

RUN and don’t look back…Keep your powder dry and WAIT…because what is setting up for you will make you more MONEY than you could ever imagine. Basically a HUGE BOOM that WILL go BUST.

These people doing walk aways from their over bought/overpriced BOOM HOUSES won’t be able to participate in the BARGAIN sale now going on in real estate.

THEY MISSED THE BOOM and NOW they’re missing the BUST…The money making part of both!!!

I’m always THANKFUL for the vast number of complete MORONS out there that HAND ME THEIR MONEY due to utterly stupid moves or a complete lack of financial planning.

Here’s a good video about Indy Mac & the FDIC.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ssl5yb7FewA

Jake,

Thanks for making me laugh this morning. You are absolutely correct. I am amazed at how many investors I talk to that want to refinance all of their Subprime 80/20 investor loans at 11% but cant because of value. They then try to sell at a loss to get out from under the payment. Imagine if you had 6 houses that you had to take even a small loss on at closing plus 4-5 years of 11% interest!!!

The bank basically made all of their interest plus probably some late fees and they get all of the unpaid principle back at the sale (unless it is a short sale).

I have a close friend that works for a company called Drive Financial. They are a subprime car loan company. He tells me all the time that his company’s profits come from the late fees and bounced check fees and whatever else they can hit people with. A person can literally get away with only making 4 payments a year on a vehicle because the lender just adds these massive fees to the loan and they really and truly don’t want the car back in the first 3 years. After a couple of years of this the car owner has paid almost zero principle because ALL of his 4-5 yearly payments are going directly to pay his late fees first then all of the extra interest that accrued then a teensy tiny eeny weenie piece get paid on principle.

In my opinion banks don’t like people like us. We read our bank statements. We notice errors. We monitor our credit. So they can’t pull my credit and use a mistake to jack our rates up.