Stumbled upon Possible RE Investment - Advice Appreciated

Hi all,

I came across this forum researching a particular real estate investment opportunity that I’ve been debating, and figured I should try to solicit some input from the Pros, especially since my background is void of any real estate investment knowledge.

I bought a 3,200 SQFT house in April of 2014 for $305K in Arvada, CO. The house was completely re-modeled upon purchase and in a way that made renting out the bottom seamless: 1,600 SQFT up and 1,600 SQFT bottom, BOTH having 3bd/2ba, each having FULL range kitchens, laundry rooms, living/family rooms, dining rooms, completely separate entrances (walk-out basement accessed around side yard), and bifurcated parking spots. Financing was a little tricky since I had to convince the bank that a single-family was going to occupy the house (not zoned or legally grandfathered in for multi), but it all worked out at the end. It was perfect to lease out the bottom our first year, which covered a substantial portion of our $1,800/month mortgage, but we recently had to ‘boot’ the tenants downstairs so that we could take over a couple of the rooms (baby number 1 on the way and I needed to move my office to make room for our little guy - crazy how time flies and space requirements double :wink: ).

The hot Colorado rental market got me thinking. Is it time to buy another house and rent out our existing one in a duplex style manner. The property management company that I met up with the other day is convinced that I could squeeze AT LEAST $3K/month from renting ($1,700/month top and $1,300/month bottom). Our current principal balance on our existing mortgage is $284K on a 30-year, 4.49% fixed-rate and my lender is confident that the house would reappraise (if needed) for at LEAST $410K.

The positive cash flow from renting is apparent, but I am not sure if buying another house is the ‘right move’ , especially since I am boggled by the extremely overpriced homes on the market due to low inventory and high demand. I don’t want to overpay for a new house to raise a family in, especially if we’re experiencing a bubble. We did just prequal with our lender the other day without a problem (NO HELOC or no proof of renters needed) and are looking to spend sub $450K on the new house.

Is this a ‘smart’ real estate investment decision to buy another and rent our current house, or should I wait? The other option would be to sell and rebuy, but I would probably have to remodel the basement to make the layout make sense for a single family in order to get the most out of the market…and for it to appraise. Another option would be to rent for another year and then use the cash to re-model to a single-family and just live in it while our family grows. Love the area, as we have awesome neighbors, and the demographics are only continuing to shift favorable, but we are definitely not emotionally attached to the unit.

Wish I had the real estate background to make this easier, but that’s why I am here now - to learn as much as I can from others in order to make a wise decision down the right direction. I appreciate any and all advice!

That was a great characterization of the situation.

What is the goal of investing? Cash flow? Appreciation? Or some combination?

Once we determine that, we can offer meaningful feedback.

Assumptions: Average expenses will be 50% of income.

So, what’s the goal? Cash flow, appreciation, or some combination?

Thanks for the response! Great question - I guess I am still trying to figure out the investment goal myself. I am still relatively young in my business career and I never intended to come across a real estate investment opportunity such as this, especially after my buying my first house a little over a year ago. I see the upside in renting to build the equity and I think I’ll be able to realize net positive cash flow after mortgage, insurance, repairs, etc. each month as long as this Colorado Market stays strong. My concern is significantly overpaying for a new house in Colorado in order to get to the rental position. If by your assumptions, you’re wondering if the monthly PPIT on a new mortgage of approx 450k will be less than 50 percent of my take home income, the answer is yes (and possibly way less w a good year of variable comp). Maybe the question should be - If you were in my shoes, what route would you take? We would like more space now to get ready for the baby, but can wait another year to make a new house purchase if it makes sense to be a bit more speculative, and see if he buyer side improves a bit more. Thanks for your time - Definitely appreciate the help from an educated investor.

Whoops, I didn’t clarify myself very well.

50% expenses means 50% of the rental income ‘is’ expenses.

Your personal bank qualifying isn’t what I was referring to.


I guess we’re back to finding out what your goals are.

Evidently, this investment just ‘came’ by accident, and so we could call you the “accidental investor.”

And so the question comes again, what do you want to accomplish as a “deliberate investor?”

It doesn’t make any difference what I would do, because my goals would be different from yours.

I was a terrible employee and needed to work for myself, so my deals necessarily had to cash flow up front, in order to replace my income. As a result, I focused on low-end, cash-flowing, ghettoey hell holes …for a while …until I realized how many I had to own, in order to achieve my income goals. So, I began to focus on low-end, ghettoey apartment buildings. Way, way faster way to cash flow and equity build-up.

Even then, these were under-performing, and/or non-performing units, that I repositioned/stablized, to create both the cash-flow and equity.

That all said, if I could have possibly remained employed as a twenty-something, and not been fired from everything, for obvious reasons, I would have necessarily invested in less management-intensive properties, and consequently been much slower in my wealth building. And that’s the ‘conventional’ way.

However, how fast you build wealth is fairly dependent on how much you want it, and what you’ll do to get there.

Most investors don’t establish either goals or deadlines for their wealth building. They just ‘want to get rich’, or ‘be wealthy’ or some other vagueness that just defines any effort whatsoever as “successful.” Pffft on that.

And that brings us back to our differences, and what you need and want, versus what I needed and wanted. They aren’t the same things, except in the end we have built wealth.

So, what do you want to accomplish? Cash flow? Appreciation? Or some combination?

Once you’ve made that determination, then it’s time to set goals and deadlines.

Being in this business a few years now I noticed how my views about buying RE has changed.
I now wouldn’t consider paying retail for any properties.
I suggest looking for distressed sellers and properties that need updating and repairs.
It takes work and time, but can pay off huge.
Rando

Great advice, @javipa and @Randoskie.

@javipa:
I thought about this over the last day and I think the investment strategy I’d like to pursue is one of cash flow / build equity, with the ability to realize a little bit of appreciation (at least enough to cover RE fees and break-even on the property) in 3-5 years if I decided to exit the property. Who knows if I’ll enjoy being a landlord (why a property management company is appealing), or if it is a bad decision. At the end of the day, I am young and I can take a bit of risk, but I want to mitigate my downside as much as possible and not go bankrupt from making a stupid decision . I just find it nice knowing that I am still in my late 20’s and after 10-20 years of renting a property I can cash out on the equity and have a fairly large amount of money that someone else generated for me.

By renting, is the downside risk of my existing unit protected enough if this were a housing bubble with over-inflated (rental) prices? What is the ‘magic’ combined (top and bottom) monthly rent number you would look for before deciding to move forward in renting my existing unit?

@Randoskie:
I like that idea. I could definitely find a house, which had the perfect layout/floorplan and a solid skeleton, but needs a lot of aesthetic work done, especially since I currently have the cash reserve to do so. Do you have any advice in being first in line to find these RE deals? I will say that I do not have the cash on-hand to pay ‘cash’ for a house that would big enough for my family’s personal needs, so I would have to resort to some sort of conventional financing with 10-30% down.

Thoughts appreciated! We went looking at houses today and everything was very overpriced, especially compared to where they were just over a year ago.

I should have offered this before, but here goes…

There’s at least six ways we make money in real estate:

  1. Cash flow (income after all expenses and debt service)
  2. Equity captured at time of purchase (discounted purchase price).
  3. Appreciation (market cycle timing/demand).
  4. Forced appreciation (rehabbing, repositioning, rezoning, etc.)
  5. Principal reduction (loan pay-down)
  6. Tax treatment (depreciation, etc.)

The more flexible we are at taking advantage of any one of these benefits, the more real estate we would consider buying.

That all said, there’s investing for cash flow, and then there’s making cash flow a business.

I’m doubtful you’re ready to make it a business.

Regardless, I would start looking in neighborhoods where the rents can be more than 2% of the purchase prices. That’s a faster way to achieve genuine cash flow without waiting.

An even faster way, is to invest in multifamily units. How much faster, depends on what you can find, how big you want to buy, and how far down the food chain you’re willing to dive.

For me, I jumped directly into a 30-unit buildings that promised cash-flow, because I was told that 30 units was the minimum number of units needed to amortize all my maintenance and management costs, and not come out of pocket.

Well, not coming out of pocket was the minimum goal, if not living on the cash-flow…

After I sacrificed/donated enough of my time and money to bring the project up to full operating temperature, then it worked the way I was told. Details details.

So, to answer your question on how to go forward with cash-flow/equity investing, here’s a couple of options to consider…

  1. Keep moving down the food chain until you begin finding deals where the rent/ratios make sense for your cash-flow goals.

*(edited) Remember, the first half of your gross scheduled income goes to expenses, including management and maintenance. The second half goes to debt service, and whatever is left over, goes to the IRS. Just kidding. What’s left over is your taxable income.

  1. Keep moving down the food chain the same way you might above, but buy more than one property at a time. This would include buying multifamily projects. Again, how many, and how far down, is up to what you can handle.

As an aside, unless you’re in a relatively unstable market with unreliable employment opportunities, or a single-industry dependent town, etc. you’re not going to experience sudden, unexpected swings in the market.

You’ll see the writing on the wall, well in advance, if you just keep your eyes open. This isn’t like stock investing where hackers jack up the index with “glitches.” Just saying.

A worst-case scenario for most investors, is that they just have to hold on to their investments longer. Oh the humanity. You know, to be a real estate investor, you have to own real estate. Who knew?

I need to stop here, but ask two questions:

1) What is your monthly net cash flow goal?
2) By what date must this goal be realized?

Once we know how much, and when, it makes it that much easier to focus on the most effective real estate investing solution.

Where are you looking to buy and what are you looking for?

@mabbittc

Thanks for your response. I am looking for a ‘ranch’ style house in the Applewood area of Lakewood/Golden, CO. We also love Golden, CO or Evergreen, CO. We really like the 1960/1970 ‘ranch style’ houses that have the ‘open’ feel, exactly like all the ‘fix and flips’ that are surfacing this summer. This will be our primary residence. Some of our ‘non-negotiables’ are that we’d like approx 2,000 SQFT to grow into, at least 4 bedrooms (can be non-conforming), and 2 bathrooms. A 2 stall garage would be nice since hail seems to be a problem here (a lot of these houses sometimes only have 1 stall). Back yards aren’t that all important to us, but would be a plus to have some room out back to relax. Obviously not all floor plans are created equal, but it would also be nice to have a master bathroom that is separate from the bathroom that our kid (or kids in future) and guests would be using.

Seems like there are still ‘deals’ to be found out there since there are still investors coming in and ‘flipping’ properties, but I do not have the slightest clue as to how we can get ahead of the game there. Any advice would be much appreciated!

@javipa

Wow - thank you for your very detailed response. Excuse my ignorance here, but what do you mean by yearly rent is more than 2% of the purchase price? The numbers I am crunching for your rent ratio example are much lower than my current PITI payment, so do you mind giving a more detailed example with numbers (maybe using my current house, since my goal is to rent that out to build equity)?

Thanks for your advice on market stability. Are there any ‘real estate’ websites that you recommend I monitor to keep an eye out for shifts in the market so that I am ahead of the game? Or maybe red-flag indicators that I should be aware of?

My initial monthly net cash flow goal would be about 3,000/month for the combined unit, top and bottom. I feel that this is realistic, considering what other units are renting for in my area. That would give me $1,800 to go toward PITI, $300 to go toward management company, and the remainder of $900/month to go toward repairs, extra payments toward principal reduction, and lastly, in my pocket as taxable income (if allowable). Does that seem like a reasonable allowance for repairs? $3,000 a month in cash flow from tenants would provide a great cushion in the case the rental market softens a bit, as I feel i’ll be able to cover my mortgage through the life of the loan, even at a 30% reduction in rental rates. If it gets even softer, hopefully a good while from now, I can exit the property and hopefully realize some good equity gain, from rental payments.

The goal date of this cash flow is entirely dependent upon us finding a new house in this seller’s market. I’ll get the rent process squared away ASAP once we come to closer realization on being under contract and closing on a new house. With the hot rental market, I am confident I could get tenants in there within a week of moving out. My property management company that I’ve decided to do business with feels the same way. Thanks so much for your additional advice here!

@BM,

The rent/price ratio is based on the sale price and the monthly (market value) rent.

If you know that an investment will rent for $3,000/mo (assuming market value rent), and you want to buy it at a 2% rent/price ratio, that means the sale price will be $150,000, or less.

Formula 1) 3000/mo rent divided by .02 equals 150,000/sale price.

Formula 2) $150,000/sale price multiplied by 2% equals $3000/mo rent.

And just for giggles, if the rent is $3000/mo, the expenses will be $1500/mo, or 50% of the gross scheduled monthly market rent. This includes EVERYTHING, except principal and interest payments.

Plan on it. Budget around it. Invest with that in mind. This way you’re less likely to donate more of your own time and money to the project.

That said, if you’re really dumpster diving on cash flowing deals, the expenses can be anywhere above 50%.

This doesn’t mean that every single year your expense rise to 50%. This means that you’re putting away the balance in order to have money to pay for roof replacements, exterior paint, stolen a/c’s and the rest of long-term, emergent-type repairs and upgrades.

I mean an asphalt driveway lasts 15 years and costs $5,000 to replace. The driveway’s already ten years old. Where’s the money been put, to pay for its replacement?

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To clarify: “Cash-flow” isn’t the same as “Income.”

There’s “net” income, “gross scheduled” income, “pre-tax” income, “after-tax” income, and “spendable” income, and more.

I forget how specific I need to be. Let’s talk about your “net taxable income goal,” not “cash flow,” or even “income goal.” These are too imprecise.

For example, my gross income would be a wet dream for me. I have to settle for my net taxable income, and even then, I’m constantly dreaming about how I can make ‘that’ amount as small as possible, if you understand being governed by those who have no respect for you, or your earnings, namely socialists.

To clarify, let me ask, “What is your net spendable, after savings, after tithes, after taxes, after paying for grandma’s place at Greener Acres Rest Home, where “They Care, So You Don’t Have To,” income goal?”

We’ve veered from talking long-term visions, to what we want for today. Let’s talk about how today, will effect the long term.

Today:

Buy a house.
The GSI (gross scheduled income) is $3,000/mo, or $36,000/yr.
The EXP (expenses) are $1500/mo, or $18,000/yr.
The NOI (net operating income) is $1500/mo, or $18,000/yr.
The Debt Service is ___________/mo, or ___________/yr. ???
The Pre-tax Cash Flow (NOI less Debt Service) is ___________/mo, or __________/yr. ???

The Rent/Price Ratio is ___________% ??

What will be your pre-tax income monthly and yearly?

That’s this house.

Now take that pre-tax result, and divide it into $3,000 (your goal), and that’s how many houses like this one, you need to invest in, in order to achieve whatever your pre-tax goal.

For example, if your pre-tax cash flow goal was $3,000/mo, and you achieved a $400/mo pre-tax cash-flow on this house, you would need about eight more houses like it to achieve your goals. $3,000 / $400 = 7.5

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Forget Armageddon happening in Lakewood/Golden. Denver’s an economically diverse city.

That said, if “For Sale” signs start popping up, it usually indicates a time to buy. If you see “For Sale” signs disappear, that means it’s a time to sell. It’s the classic (simplistic) contrarian investor’s scheme.

If you see a lot of “For Rent” signs go up, that can mean several things, depending on what else is happening. It could mean landlords can’t find tenants. Or it could mean investors are seizing opportunities as a result of all the For Sale signs and sellers.

It could mean the market is in a death spiral, and all the over-leveraged owners who try to hold on, will end up with foreclosure-shaped skid marks in their shorts.

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Well, back to the “cash flow” goals question…

I already spewed off on the definitions of such, but again…

I’m gonna bust your chops, because you’re young, and it’s my guess that nobody’s ever ‘loved’ you enough to tell you this… or perhaps ever really had goals themselves.

The goal never changes. Only the way to get there does. You can’t make your income goal contingent on buying ‘that’ one house, or not. That’s very short-sighted and small-minded. That’s the extent of your beating.

Meantime, if your cash-flow goal is $3,000/mo (in spendable cash) in real estate, it makes little difference how you get there.

If the house thing doesn’t pan out, a duplex thing will. If that doesn’t, something else will. You keep changing tires on the wheels of success, until you get there.

So, assume the house deal falls apart.
Do you postpone your goals and dreams, until …what happens?

It’s not, I want to make $3,000/mo ‘if’ I can possibly, ever, ever, close on this hell hole, I’ve had my eye on.

It’s more like a commitment where you say “By hell or high water, I will make $3,000/mo in cash flow, investing in cash-flowing real estate by February 14, 2017 …or I will stand up during a testimonial time at my church prayer meeting (all Mayberry RFD-style), and tell “Andy, Barney, and Aunt Bea” that I am a massive, dysfunctional loser, and have failed God, my Family, and my Church, and I will now strip to my drawers, and allow myself to be flagellated by the pastor with a snake-handler’s whip, for failing to meet this achievable goal.”

Of course, I’m kidding …sort of, but committing to the results means not getting hung up on the brand of tires you’re looking at. Many different ‘tires’ will work.

So, you’re either, somehow, going to achieve this goal and deadline, or you’re gonna die trying.

That means you may have to abandon the idea of buying a house in Lakewood, and start shopping the East side (this just scares me as I type this) of Denver, to reach your goals.

Again, we can reach our goal and deadlines MANY different ways, but the goal always stays the same, even if the deadline, and the way to get there has to be adjusted.

Just to add more to this bible I’m writing… Our minds cannot tell the difference between fact or fiction. Everything we tell ourselves, ask of ourselves, or believe, our minds take for granted as “FACT.”

That’s one very important reason that we are very careful about what we say to ourselves, allow our minds to dwell on, and/or otherwise allow our subconscious minds to receive. Everything. It’s a lot of like self hypnosis.

That’s a major reason not to let your yet-unborn children get plopped in front of the TV and allow all sorts of crap get fed to your children’s minds. Soon, you’ll have crap-filled kids, that say and do the crappiest things, but I digress.

Back to goals. Somewhere in this forum, I’ve shared my ‘first apartment purchase’ story that illustrates just exactly what committing to a goal, deadline, and having no contingencies available, works in real life. It’s quite a story, and it’s one of many I have.

Bottom line the goal is not reduced to buying ‘that’ house. The goal is to pocket $3,000/mo investing in real estate on a monthly basis (for the sake of discussion). This may require buying several houses, not just one.

So, finally I ask, “What is the net, annual, pre-tax income goal, and what is the deadline?” And what are the self-imposed negative consequences for not reaching the goal, besides showing up to church ready for a nice session of abuse?

If you’re not able to think that far ahead, I understand. Some of us need a success or two, to get our minds around what is possible, or ‘not’ possible.

And that’s why I’ll add that ‘whatever’ goal we set for ourselves, and are willing to commit to (regardless of the ability to understand how it’s possible), our minds will literally start working in the background, and subconsciously feed us ideas and options that never seemed obvious before.

Before long, we’ll begin seeing results, and eventually achieve those goals, right on schedule.

Please pardon the pop psychological rah-rah session, but it got my juices going.

Meantime, don’t believe any of this? Prove me wrong. :biggrin