When u see the cranes in your city u know a recession is coming
just an observation over the years,some may get this this
my 2 cents
Robert A. Doncaster, Jr. - “RAD”
Import/Export Entrepreneur & Investor
*** DO YOUR HOMEWORK ***
Chicago Illinois USA
& sometimes Salzburg, Austria
I’m lost…anyone know what he’s talking about?
i think he’s referring to the bloomberg article i posted about earlier regarding miami… there was a paragraph about how all these projects had already been funded and now miami has a ton of cranes still building condos, while there is a lot of supply still.
huh? This statement is too general and probably incorrect most of the time. Certainly there are overbuilt markets like Miami. However, when I see cranes and money start pouring into a submarket, that is typically a good sign. Infact that is what I target.
When I was in Germany, the cranes built nests in chimneys…does that count?
Keith
Bizarrefun is right.
2 years ago I went to Miami with a friend of mine, he was buying pre-construction condos down there by the boat load. When I saw the skyline I commented on all the cranes. I said “Man, this looks a little scary, can this market absorb all this inventory?”
He looked at me like I had 3 heads. “It’s gold mine down here”
“OK, but this level of building CAN’T LAST.”
2 years later my friend owns 3 new condos, can’t sell ANY of them for what he paid and now has 3 beautiful NEGATIVE cash flowing RENTALS.
The point Bizarre was making is if it looks like the new state bird is the building crane get ready for a coming downturn in that market. Cripes, it’s basic economics people, you over build, you discount, go bankrupt, or rent 'em. None of those scenerios makes money. It’s all out there in front of us, some people see it and some don’t.
Yeah but to compare every metropolitan area with cranes to a market like Miami is a bit over the top. Certainly there are cases of overbuilding. And ofcourse there is a macro economy at play. However, to evaluate an area correctly you need to consider the micro cycles of the given market/submarket. Typically, when builders come to build and money pours into the area for development, it creates a positive upswing. Development should not be viewed as a negative.
one of my business colleagues from tradeshows just lost 40k in miami on one of those…i told him a year ago,
no listen…
hehe lol
my 2 cents
Robert A. Doncaster, Jr. - “RAD”
Import/Export Entrepreneur & Investor
*** DO YOUR HOMEWORK ***
Chicago Illinois USA
& sometimes Salzburg, Austria
If thats the case, then Beijing is in trouble. Actually I should say all of China!
What about Dubai?
According to greater minds than mine, there are some clouds on China’s horizon. What’s the old sports motto? Thing’s are never as good as they seem when you’re winning or as bad as they seem when you’re losing.
india and vietnam will replace china,.,
read your history,
my 2 cents
Robert A. Doncaster, Jr. - “RAD”
Import/Export Entrepreneur & Investor
*** DO YOUR HOMEWORK ***
Chicago Illinois USA
& sometimes Salzburg, Austria
They certainly will. Definately read your history, but read some economics to. And don’t ignore the classics like David Ricardo.
no listen....hehe lol
I’ll have what he is having… :rolleyes
I’m thinking that whatever it is that he’s having will have long-term ill effects…
Keith
Don’t know about anyone else but I’m tired of seeing “my 2 cents” and using commas to replace periods, I’m losing my mind. :banghead
Don't know about anyone else but I'm tired of seeing "my 2 cents" and using commas to replace periods, I'm losing my mind.
You are part of a rapidly expanding group. :smashpc
“hehe lol”, ME TOO!
Keith
Ya know what I’m sick of???
I’m sick of posts being deleted.
The reason this forum works is because people from EVERY sector of our economy stop by here and add “THEIR 2 CENTS.” They discuss a myriad of economic topics that relate to investing because IT’S ALL TIED TOGETHER. That and ONLY that, keeps me coming back.
If all I’m going to read here is “I have no money, no credit, no experience, but I think I want to own $15 million dollars in Real estate in 2 years” I’m gone!!!
Sensorship is a VERY dangerous game. I don’t know how long THIS post will last but Robert has put some very interesting info on this site in the short time he’s been here. I personally could care less if he can spell or even use proper english. The guy who started me in my real estate career had a 4 th grade education. If he was posting here some guy’s would laugh him right off this forum.
THAT WOULD BE A BIG MISTAKE!!!
The things I learned from this man I’ve shared with everyone here. I get messages everyday from people with real world real estate problems. It’s about paying it forward. Why would I sit back and read a post by some guy with a wife and kids who is about to make the EXACT same mistake I made 10 years ago and not warn him??? THAT is what this forum SHOULD be about.
PLEASE…I find this site extremely interesting, informative, and useful, don’t sensor it out of it’s usefulness.
Here’s a news flash, just in directly from the Forum Rules:
"** Moderator Control - moderators may modify, delete, and/or move posts to a more appropriate forum without notice."
Frankly, I’m not sure I really care what any given single user is sick of…if he posts outside the Forum rules, I can almost guarantee that one or another of the Moderators is going to zap it. For example: Nothing that Lyndon LaRouche has to say is any way relevent to reality…
Keith
Moderator
Yeah, the repeating “my 2 cents” c**p is getting old. Most (errr, all!) of those postings are negative and have little to do with real estate. And, honestly, how is posting a message about cranes productive/positive/helpful information at all? Really - we get it - you have said 100 times already you think the economy stinks and you repeat that message again, again and again. I think you’re someone who lost some $$$ in the market and keeps whining about it. It’s junk postings like these that made all the productive/helpful people leave some other message boards…that used to be good. Can you just stop posting that stuff? Or can a moderator ban him if he continues? Thanks