Should I attempt an offer or pass on this deal?

I found this deal on MLS, I thought there should be no good deals on MLS, so I am kind surprised to see an abundance of these deals on MLS in the city I used to live in.

Property Info:
Duplex 2bed/2bath x2
2500sqft/1988
the front looks fairly decent
sold in 2007 for $375k
both are currently renting for $900, so $1800 total
tax assessment: $253k

Asking price: $120k, short sale I believe

nearby comp, all duplex, recent sale
$125k/1500sqft/4b3ba/1979
$113k/2000sqft/4be3ba/1979
$84k/1600sqft/4be2ba/1963

Here is the break down (even with the asking price, the number still looks pretty good):
P&I: 719 (assuming 6.5% interest, since I will borrow money for the down payment )
Tax: 208
MI: 100
Insurance: 50
Repair: 150
Vacancy: 132 (assuming one month vacant for every 12 months)
Property Management: 100
total expense: $1459
total income : $1600 ( I own a 2bed/1bath rental property in the same city, renting out for $795, so I am confident with $800 here )

Cash flow: +141

I am aware of rent x 50 rule, and I need cash flow to be + 300 to provide enough ‘margin of safety’, so I am thinking if I can get this property for less or around 100k, I will go for it.

My questions, and doubts that prevent me from attempting an offer:

  1. Deals that’s have been on MLS for days cant be good right? why is it still on the market?
  2. should I drive 3 hours to see the property first, or attempt a low offer first and drive there after a counter offer? Both unit rented out, so I cant go inside anyway. I can see the front and root from google map.
  3. Although I own a rental property in the same city, I am still fairly new to real estate investing, should I wait, learn some more, and not even attempting an offer?(yes, self-doubt)
  4. what would you do if you see this property?

Sorry, I know this is a long post. This is my first post too. I have been reading this forum for a while now. Saw some really good advice here.

I really appreciate any help, guidance and feedback.

KI

Plenty of great deals on the MLS these days. Lots of motivated sellers and bank-owned houses.

In my opionion (and this is just my opinion) based on those numbers this isn’t a deal that I would pursue; not enough cash flow for me to risk my assets & credit for (which is exactly what you’re doing when you take out a mortgage in your own name). And I’d certainly offer much less than the asking price. It’s a buyer’s market, take advantage of it.

You should post this on the Landlording forum if you haven’t already.

Thanks for the feeback nsu1997. I saw lots of great posts from you.

Would you go for it if , say you offered 85k and they counter back around 90k or 95k?

also, If I understand this right, hard money lenders dont look at the cash flow, they require LTV to be around 65% I dont see other ways to purchase rental properties without taking out mortgage under my own name. Properties for under 65% AND positive cash flow rarely show up on MLS I guess;(

KI
p.s. i am still a beginner in real estate investing, so I post this here.

You’re welcome.

Personally I only landlord to rent-to-own tenants who are responsible for all maintenance & repairs, and only if I can get the house subject-to or on a sandwich lease option. So my paradigm is different. I can take a smaller cashflow because my risk is low all across the board. If I borrowed a mortgage in my own name for a deal it’d have to be an absolute killer deal regardless where the lead came from.

On your particular deal I’m thinking I’d want at least a $350-400/mo net cashflow. You’re looking at putting up a pretty sizeable down payment plus you’ll have to maintain 2 of everything (2 water heaters, 2 furnaces, 2 sets of baths/kitchens, etc). Which begs the next question: how capitalized are you? Do you have cash reserves?

I suggested the landlording forum because people over there specialize in straight landlording…they can probably analyze your deal more thoroughly. You wouldn’t want to use hard money on a buy-and-hold property.

It can’t hurt to make an offer. Just make sure the numbers are right