Robert Shiller: House prices STILL too high

We’re not there yet folks. Still falling :flush

If that ain’t enough Bobby thinks the DOW will OVER CORRECT as it has done throughout history in major market down turns.

Makes complete sense to me. When the MAJORITY of people don’t even want to HEAR the words REAL ESTATE, we could certainly see a deeper low than stats would predict.

A few years ago I posted an article about a Swiss bank that predicted that at some point in the future NO ONE would want to even think about real estate as an investment. They said at that point we would probably have put in a bottom.

I’ll always remember the BRILLANT comment posted here:

“Who cares what a Swiss banker thinks.”


Ok my opinion at a Genius at work, he is finally back in the game in Mexico after the newspaper fiasco.


I did not get that move.

Sam should have stuck with what he knew… REAL ESTATE.

This guy got the nic name “The Grave Dancer” because of his uncanny ability to get IN when things were bad, and OUT when things were great.

I never understood that newspaper purchase???

Great article…Thanks for posting it!

Maybe I’m wrong, but it’s hard to see how we can hit the bottom in 2009 (at least here in Florida). I was recently at a discussion group (that had nothing to do with Real Estate) and four people mentioned that their houses were in the process of being foreclosed on. I was stunned. The house prices have dropped a lot but I still don’t think they’re in line with the paltry wages the average person gets paid in this state. And now Disney is laying off people, to make matters worse.

I agree with the Sam Zell article…I also agree that Florida will bottom out soon…FLA has been mauled and I have been looking online at some unreal buys…Even if the market drops further in FLA it outweighs the risk…We have friends that bought in FLA before the bubble popped in RE…They paid 440k for their home,a very nice one at that…Protected community with all the amenities ,now the same places are being sold for %50 discount…I’m comfortable with taking a shot with a discount like that…If the house next door from me dropped by %50 I would buy it to simply average my price lower and hold it…

Most important part of the Sam Zell article
Opportunities exist, but for those with access to capital. Capital is as scarce as ever and you need to recognize that capital will be the key to make money in this environment.

I was friendly debating on the Hard Money forum about this issue…There is money to be made right now,maybe not in equities but there is a fortune to be made in RE lending…The HM lenders with access to capital are inundated with high equity deals coming from desperate homeowners in need of cash at any cost…Some call this predatory lending and others call it making money from the irresponsible…If Obama wants me to share my success with the irresponsible I agree with him now !..I will share with these people but they will pay through the nose for that partnership…

My guess is when you are that good for so long, you start to think your not only a great investor, but a economic mastermind that is unstoppable.

In retrospect, I don’t think he could have choose a better time to take a break from Real Estate.

I agree, from where I sit I don’t see anything resembling the bottom yet. The average days on market here has nearly eclipsed the DOW and prices aren’t falling like they should to make people buy.