This is basically the same map…
Keith
In order to win a war what you have to do is accomplish a political mission using the military. This means you have to convince a government that politically they should do what you want them to do because you have beat them militarily. This means that your enemy MUST have a government to surrender. That is our problem with both Afghanistan and Iraq. In Afghanistan our enemy is not the Afghans, it is religious extremist. These people all believe that what they are doing is ordained by God. You can’t change a man’s beliefs by shooting him. He will die with those beliefs but the beliefs won’t change. A man convinced against his will is of that opinion still. The only way to stop them is to kill every one of them man woman and child. That has never worked (Crusades, Nazis, Rwanda, etc) is not possible to “get them all”.
In Iraq the problem is that they have surrendered, but we are still fighting. We need to leave and let them run their country. When our President said Mission Accomplished on the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln, he was right. When I sell a house my mission is accomplished, I don’t keep going over there and helping the people unpack their stuff and cut their yard, and cook them dinner. It is their house now let them live in it.
In order to win a war what you have to do is accomplish a political mission using the military. This means you have to convince a government that politically they should do what you want them to do because you have beat them militarily. This means that your enemy MUST have a government to surrender. That is our problem with both Afghanistan and Iraq.
In conventional warfare, yes. This is where the US military excels far above any other country. Unfortunately, this is an asymmetric and guerilla war. This is where the Special Ops units excel. Contractors can’t bid to make more of these guys, they can’t be mass produced, and we need many more of them. This war will be won by keeping the religious moderates the same, through PSYOPS and by diminishing the numbers and ordnance of the extremists. There is not enough time in the world to deprogram thousands of extremists who want to kill everyone and have the capability to do so. It is a tedious but necessary job to eradicate those with the mental disease of terrorism. This is a war of hearts and minds but as my favorite running cadence goes:
Hearts and Minds,
Hearts and Minds,
Two to the heart,
One to the mind.
As it is, the numbers of extremists are far too great for an unestablished government (Iraq) to control. The US can control the Black Panthers and KKK. In Iraq, one of the insurgent groups would soon overtake the “government”. It’s important this does not happen as an extremist government with adequate funding, research, training, and weapons would wreak havoc on the US especially among many other countries. Imagine a 9/11 every week. They’re only mission in life is to kill as many not like them as they can before they die. They will die in Iraq from getting shot in the head by a US sniper or they will die in the US with a bomb in a subway system. You’re right though, we’ll never get them all, but we’ve got to surpress them as much as possible so the cancer doesn’t grow into something unmanageable.
Hearts and Mind…
It is good to see that the military is finally facing up to the fact that this operation will have to be COIN focused (Dear God, I said COIN…such blasphemy, especially after 'Nam).
Danny, it sounds like you know what the hell you are talking about…I hope Patreaus can take us where we need to be.
Don’t worry, big blue will be there to rain down some hell…
~joshua
Joshua,
Have you read the newest COIN manual? I’ll send the link to your PMs.
Counterinsurgency is so simple in principal. What makes it difficult in this situation is we have a big cumbersome conventional military that is required to constantly adapt. It’s much easier when it’s 8-12 guys. Public opinion wanting everything to happen overnight makes the brass rush the decisions and the new tactics get implemented before they’re ready. These conflicts are nothing new, they happen in Africa, Central and South America, and Asia all the time and we’ve have plenty of practice.
It’s all about patience at this point. It takes a long time to kill every rat and we’ve got to make sure they don’t breed in the mean time. Historically the US would choose the lesser of the two evils and supported them to defeat one side and let the other rule. The only acceptable ruler in this case is the Iraqi government and the US is acting as the placeholder which leaves us with the obligation to “do it ourselves” instead of simply backing the favorite until the Iraqi government is competent enough.
It’s important to have a strong Iraqi government and they be our ally because this s*** is just beginning. It’s long overdue to be dealing with terrorism from a militarisic perspective versus a law enforcement perspective but it’s the only effective way. The sick SOB’s who go into schools as their last stand are terrorists. LE has proven far too many times they are ineffective in these situations. It takes them hours to enter the school mean while the SOB is already done his dirty work. If I were a LEO and first on the scene to a school shooting, you’d find me dead or out of bullets, not “setting up a perimeter”. Enough ranting, back to REI…
The truth is finally spoken…can I please get some of that on CNN?