ah interesting. No I have not been there. 
I am new to this particular club and new to the business. But this I do know. CNN Money tracks that data. Though it is year to date or period to date data and not necessarily a guage of future trends, it is helpful.
http://money.cnn.com/2005/05/23/real_estate/buying_selling/hot_cold_markets/index.htm
Also, the census bureau is a great place to conduct your research. It has statistical data on urban sprawl, economic, residential, etc. I am going to be tracking the area with the highest density of bankruptcies and foreclosures and start by bird-dogging those areas. These areas are the likeliest by far to have motivated sellers. The census bureau is at www.census.gov
I have been to that CNN link. However, I want to know what the trend and numbers are TODAY and not a 12 month avg which is skewed.
I sell strawberries at $20 a crate in Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar, and April and then I sell them for $5 in May, June, and July. On July 28th, you come up to me and see no price tag but you know the avg price for my strawberries for the past 9 months is $15. What you do not know is they are worth only $5 today. So you buy them at $15 because your statistics have yet to catch up with reality.
There are some situations where you look at long periods of historical data and others when you must look at small amounts.
So, if you were armed with recent data and saw this:
Property One has appreciated 30% over last 12 months, which is an average of 2.5% monthly.
In the past 3 months, it appreciated 1.5% monthly, which includes 1% last month.
Would you think the market it heating up or cooling down?
The most up to date sales link i have found is
http://www.melissadata.com/ssl/HomeSales.asp
Most national data is 90 days behind, and in this hyper inflated market, a turn down you don’t know about for 90 days will put you out.
Google search “Ponzi Scam” and remember the last person left in town, please turn off the light.
;D
As a land agent and investor, I have been doing quite well here in the high desert of southern cali. We have our own small investment group consisting of five investors. We currently are only buying and selling land. That is what I specialize in. Our current hot areas are Lucerne Valley, Johnson Valley, and over towards Landers. We are currently looking at and have done some test purchases in Boron (between California City and Barstow), California City, and smaller towns around Barstow (Daggett, Newberry Springs, and Yermo). Due to the current growth to the area of Victorville and the afforability of housing compaired to the rest of southern california, it has spurred a frenzy in the acquisition of useable land. A lot has change over the last 12 to 18 months in land values.
I have to say that my group is very happy at how well we have done.
So, I think if anyone is looking for a hot market it is right here in the high desert of california.
I am not sure how much Boron has grown, but in the 80’s it consisted on a couple trailor parks, a few homes, school, church, corner store, and crappy little grocery store. If you drove by and blinked, you missed the town.
A train was always coming through and stopping on the tracks. The sonic booms and explosions from the Air Force were always fun.
Many who lived there had friends or relatives housed at the Min. Security Prison up the way past Kramer Junction.
Land went on for eons.
The good ol 20 mule team . . .
Hello,
I moved to Hesperia in Oct. and yes I agree this market is hot. I have children and like most moms I really want to be able to spend more time with them. I recently attended a seminar to obtain knowledge on the Russ Whitney’s techniques. Yes, looking for financial freedom.
I really want to get involved with investing in the high desert as well as with other areas. I’m just unsure as to how to do it since there are so many big investors tapping into the market. I too, was thinking about the area in between Hesperia and Barstow and even in Barstow. Since you and your team are doing what I want to do and is successful with it. What kind of advise can offer for a person in my situation.
Any help would be great. Thank you
I agree, Boron has been a sleeper for many years. I went there one day with my kids to see the borax mine and got a quick tour of the town. That was several years ago.Was not much there at he time.
Lucerne Valley was the same way for many years.
But now Boron has changed some and grown alittle. The interest in the area has steadily been growing. That is why it is a tester area for us. Kramers Corners is growing and in return that has seemed to help the Town of Boron. Even the land northeast of Kramers Corners has some activity.
Looking at land sales, there are no comps. Looking at home sale, there have been some from 113,000 to a couple of homes on the west side at 243,000 and 341,000.
So, Boron is currently a virgin area for us. I bought a 3/4 ac parcel zoned R-3 for 19,700 just a month ago. Flipped it back on to the market for 75,000 and have accepted an offer for 72,500 all cash last week.
Is this a fluke? I don’t know, but I have started looking into seeing what other properties might be there. I don’t know if Boron has an economic development group as Lucerne Valley does. I would like to know what are the plans for Boron if any.
For Southerncal,
Land speculation can be fun and frustrating. It is not a get rich quick overnight way to make money. Some deals can sell in a month and many others take 6 to 8 months. The name of the game is to buy low and sell at a profit. The easiest route to take is to get to know an agent who is in the land business that you can trust. And when I mean trust, I mean with acquiring properties on just your name and knowing your financial limits. Find someone who has several years in the business and also invests themselves. Don’t go out with a beginner or someone who sells homes and then have your money get tied up in properties that will go nowhere.
The person you decide to work with needs to be able to meet with you on a regular basis and let you know what is going on in different areas and/or answer any questions you may have. This person needs to be able to act in a moments notice to acquire a property or at least be able to contct you for a yes or no when a deal comes avaibile. I could go on and on with what to do and what to look for. But you need to have some knowledge of what is going on also. Because in the end it is your money that is on the line.
A few people have been looking at Barstow as the next expansion growth area for the Victor Valley. I have not seen that much activity just in Barstow itself. Now, areas like Yermo, Daggett, Newberry Springs, and Hinkley have had more land activity. I have been keeping an eye on Lenwood in south Barstow. If it goes as a redevelopment zone then that would be a really good area. There has been a lot of talk and motions to get that area to go redevelopment. Is it a good area to buy? If the price is low enough, Yes. No matter what happens you will be able to double your money .
Speculation is for the birds. I only invest.
Not going to get stuck holding land, and paying on, it for eons in hopes that someone waves a magic wand and it goes up in value.
I know of speculation areas just outside of sprawl that have been “speculation” for decades.
If I am going to speculate, I will go down to my local casino’s dice table.
Everybody has their way for making money.
If you want to go to the casino Evergreen and throw your money away, go right ahead. At least I will have something at the end of the day.
It’s people like you who are ignorant to what real estate has to offer. Or maybe you are too lazy to do anything and expect money just to fall in your lap.
I buy and sell millions of dollars of land a month of not just my own land but for many clients who trust in me to handle their investments.
Speculation buying is for testing new areas for potential growth. That means you have to do some research in the area of interest. Maybe that is too much for you.
It’s people like you who end up buying land from me once an area becomes a buy now location.
Today I am going out with a partner to look at 18 acres. I can tell you that within the next 12 months I will triple if not quadruple my ROI.
I just opened escrow on a property I bought 5 years ago for $20,000. The purchase price is $1,250,000. I didn’t just buy this property 5 years ago as a guess. I had an idea and did my homework in which direction growth was going. It just took the right time to sell. I have closed 3 other properties in the same area this month and have 2 more to go. Now I’m smiling on my way to the bank.
So Evergreen, you just keep rolling your dice or throw your money away in the lottery. Maybe, just maybe, you might get lucky and be one out of the how many millions who win.
Maybe one day you will grow up and realize there are other options to making money in real estate.
Donald Trump didn’t build his emipre listening to people like you.
It’s people like you who get left on the wayside.
For those getting into real estate, look at all options and find what works for you and feels comfortable.
Don’t be stupid like Evergreen.
Oh brother.
The Casino line was a joke and there is a difference in speculating and investing, as you should know. You are getting confused and your personal attacks are not wanted in the community.
I will gladly jump in the pot if the numbers make sense. As far as raw land goes, I am not going to buy land out in the middle of nowhere and guess what sprawl might do. Pay attention to my words. Finding an area that is about to bust open is normally not in the middle of nowhere.
On the other hand, if there is an area with some action, that is a different story.
I am glad your educated guess worked. The fact is that 99% of people who buy land too far outside of an area hold it for quite some time.
There are lots of ways to make money period. Like I said, I am an investor not a speculator. Does that mean I won’t wake up one day and see one of my parcels of land skyrocket? Most likely.
You really should try to get to know someone before you assume to know them enough to attack them.
I agree with the Utah assesmant. I have been in Odgen three times in the past 2 months and picked up some great property. Good cash flow, looking to move them. Not sure how to get the word out effectively.
Do you know if there is still a hamburger place just south of Kramers Junction? I remember it was a few miles and was so tasty. That was 2 decades ago though lol.
I saw a parcel of land (just over an acre), for a few K. Be worth owning for sentimental value
I am going to Cali on business next month. Think I will stop in and see.
The discussion for this forum is looking for the next hot market.
I put in my two cents. Someone else might think Texas is the next hot market. Others may think Montana is. I’ve noticed some people writing about Utah.
Is land speculation? For me it is not. For others it may be. I’ve done plenty of research and investigations in areas of interest and looking for up and coming areas. I would never advise a fellow investor to acquire a property if I wouldn’t purchase it myself. I wouldn’t just out of the blue decide to go buy an aprtment building. That would be a speculation for me.
My hot market is the Southern California high desert.
I will answer any questions and try to help as best as possible for anyone who is willing to ask and listen. From that you can make your own opinion.
For Evergreen, I know where there is 40ac for $18,000 out in the middle of nowhere if you are interested. My advice though is that you would have a better chance at the card table on this one.
I was referring to the text book version of speculation and investing. Heck, every investment is speculation of some sort.
Right now I am buying another property, a new home. I am speculating that it is undervalued by $48,000 from what I will be buying it at. It probably won’t be done for 8 months, which will add about $30-$40k in value on the safe side. It’s not a “home run” by any stretch.
Actually, I am working on subdividing and soft-selling parcels. That will allow me to keep some highly speculative land here and there at a minimal cost.
Hemet is growing. Not sure how far out the growth will go though.
can you expand on “get the word out effectively” please?
Land speculation is very risky, it provides no income, unless you sell or develop. But I would never take invest advice from anyone that guarantees I will be able to double my money. Because why would a person give out such a lucrative tip? Why not go a buy all the land and double his own money? Unless they already done so and are now looking for “bagholders”
i’m not trying to support the original poster but i like to share my deals with other investors and my friends. i can’t qualify to do all the new pre-construction deals i find and because i hook up with investor-friendly bldrs and developers, the more people i bring in, the more leverage i have with them.
so sometimes its not always a bad thing to share your surplus deals!!!
I know what you mean. It just seems a little too good for someone to come onto a message board and promise great wealth in land speculation. Buy now! Make a ton in a year! Sounds to me they have a vested interest into it.