Newbie here with a very general, perhaps subjective and even unanswerable question. Maybe someone can at least point me in the direction of information, articles, opinions, whatever that may address this.
Of course, we know that some areas (AZ, NV, CA, FL…) have been hit very hard by real estate prices being in the tank, while others maybe not so drastic, but still are affected to some extent. Can one assume that, all things (location, desirability, etc.) being equal, real estate prices are at or near their lows in all parts of, say North America? I know no one can say for sure, but I’m trying to get a feel for this from those who follow the R.E. market consistently, because I don’t.
Specifically, I am looking at buying a small (1/2 acre or so) buildable lot in a “summer cottage” kind of town along the northern coast (Sunrise Trail) of Nova Scotia. And what I want to get opinions on is, NOT “Is it likely that I’ll make a killing on this property if I sell in ten or fifteen years,” but rather, is the consensus that one should at least not lose money over that time period. That is, is it generally a buyer’s market “all over,” but just maybe less dramatically as in the hard-hit areas?
I’m planning on building a vacation cottage on the property and using it as a family summer home, so it will not be strictly an investment, I’ll have a “use benefit” as well.
There is a lot to read considering the thousands of individual markets and the calculation of probibility.
With that said the market in Phoenix Arizona will potentially hit bottom during the next 6 months, however Flagstaff Arizona generally runs about 9 months to a year behind the Phoenix market and Tucson Arizona it is believed has just passed the bottom in the last 3 months.
However the Las Vegas market may linger for another 12 to 18 months before it see’s a real bottom and starts skipping horizontal for a while, expected growth rates for these area’s are estimated at maybe 1.5 to 3% per year appreciation rate the next 20 years in Arizona and the belief is Las Vegas Nevada will skip along the bottom for another couple of years after hitting bottom before seeing a real appreciation rate and turning upward.
With that said I am currently looking for land for a couple of estate homes, one on the east coast and one on the west coast and figure to actually buy somewhere between spring 2011 and summer 2012. I believe we will have effectively reached the very best bottom of market prices at that point for the markets I want to buy my land in and build my estate homes.
I believe you will find it prudent to watch land prices, calculate size against prices and look at comp’s against listed prices, I think it will tell you a lot about when to purchase? Like me your buying this land as a family property and I don’t believe either of us will lose money in the land.
I believe in 10 to 15 years a property will conservatively have appreciated at least 15 to 25%!
There was lots of overall economic news released a couple days ago. More pain in RE values may follow. There are reports of a large glut of foreclosures hitting the market too.
The real estate market in Canada has absolutely nothing to do with the real estate market in the USA.
Understanding what real estate is doing in Arizona is not going to give you valuable information about Nova Scotia.
It’s a vacation home. Pick a location that you really like. Pick a lot that has desirable features (views, water frontage, ski slope, something extra special about it). If it sings to your family as a vacation spot, it will sing to someone else when it comes time to sell it.
Shop until you get a feel for prices. Pick your lot because you want to vacation on it; not for a bargain price. Make a low offer and enter into negotiations.