This is going to take TIME…
There isn’t any CLIFF we’re headed for…It’s gonna be a LONG, SLOW, HARD walk out of the woods. SIMPLE AS THAT. We went on a 10 year DRUNKEN BENDER…
I see the START DATE for that BINGE sometime in 1997-99 with the TECH STOCK PARTY.
We moved from that, to the REAL ESTATE BOOM which lasted until 2006-7…10 years EXACTLY…One hell of a PARTY right???
So the question is…
If YOU drank like a FISH for 10 straight years how long would the HANG OVER LAST???
10 years!!! With the “Waking up in jail night” being the fall of 2008.
So we could be 2 years in…OR… If you use the 2006-07 real estate price peak as the top…Then we’re 3 to 4 years in.
This is how ECONOMIES work…
Anyone here remember the real estate BOOM of the mid 80’s??
It took 5 years for the TOP to be made and 5 more for the BOTTOM to be put in.
Anyone remember what happened to classic car prices in the early 1990’s???
Jaguar E-types were selling for $100,000 and people LINED up to buy them AFTER the '87 Wall Street crash…(the then famous HERD quote was “I’m taking my money OFF of WALL ST and putting it on MAIN ST”) Yea, more like putting it in a DUMPSTER!!
That BUBBLE lasted for 5 years…the prices for those cars CRASHED to $30K…It took 10 years for those cars to regain their footing.
Did classic car INVESTING STOP during this time???
NO…Those Jags now fetch $150,000…So ANYONE who watched the HERD dumping their show quality Jags for $30K and PURCHASED a few is NOW sitting on a 500% return and a beautiful car!!
Did people walk away from stocks in 1987 with the DOW at 2500 and never purchase another share???
NO…The Dow is now at 10,000…UP 400%
Did SMART people walk away from REAL ESTATE investing in the early 90’s when the bottom was put in??
NO…They were BUYING…Then the HERD jumped in and sent prices through the ROOF 10 years later!
SO WHAT’S DIFFERENT NOW???..NOTHING!!!
SAME CIRCUS…DIFFERENT CLOWNS!!!
THIS TIME we almost took the economy back to the stone ages…So it’s not coming back in a few years. It’s going to take TIME! A LOT of slow moving TIME!
The UPSIDE OF THIS???
The coming economic expansion will be HUGE…This is TYPICAL for these events…Swing that big PENDULUM one way for a LONG ARCH, and the RETURN SWING is just as LONG and STRONG but in the OPPOSITE DIRECTION. There’s also another force at play here…
At some point people in this country are just going to be SICK and TIRED of $AVING and BEING SCARED…When that point comes…WATCH this economy expand…It’s a MEMORY FUNCTION…When you whack your finger with a hammer it HURTS right away and you STOP hammering.
The MEMORY of that PAIN fades with time…Until…You hit it AGAIN!!!
We’ll work through this…
In the mean time…BUY ALL THE PROPERTY YOU CAN!!! Because as the HERD has shown us OVER and OVER and OVER…
THEY buy at the TOP and LOVE selling to YOU and ME at the BOTTOM!!!
GOD I LOVE THIS COUNTRY!!! :beer