Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!

Random Ramblings
141

On the other hand, if the economy really does lose another 4 million jobs next year, the economy will be in a REAL ditch and people will be buying even fewer cars than they are now. I am still not convinced that the American people will not tire of all the bailouts and DEMAND that failing businesses be allowed to go into bankruptcy. Ford could easily be forced into Chapter 11 and the stock would become worthless (even though Ford would ultimately survive). That’s the bet on this Ford play, that public opinion won’t force the government to allow Ford to go into Chapter 11. I’m not willing to bet the farm on this issue, although I am certainly willing to trade in and out.

Mike

142

Good point Mike. That is the question…

I will say this…

Obama rode into town on a WAVE of UNION Support. He just put Joe Biden in charge of middle class recovery efforts (whatever that means)
Joe is a BIG TIME Union guy. I seriously doubt Joe is going anywhere near a bankruptcy that would see those Union Contracts thrown out.

None of us have to agree with these methods. In reality I think a bankruptcy is exactly what is needed. I just think that in these economic times it would be a death blow to any car company. I do believe the Unions, at the very LEAST, are half the problem. The other half being the management.

So far this is going exactly according to plan. Ford is now publically acknowledged as the STRONGEST AMERICAN car company. They are getting loans from all over the world, they still have VOLVO which is worth an estimated $6 billion, and now the Obama administration is coming into office. The best part of all…Whatever gets forced down GM’s throat in the way of UAW wage cuts will benefit Ford too. The UAW will be in no position to require Ford to pay a higher wage while accepting a lower wage from a weaker company.

In the end your absolutley right Mike…There’s still a lot of unknown out there.

In my way of thinking…If we do get 4,000,000 jobs losses next year…
Any FURTHER loses (like losing a CAR company) will be completely unacceptable as this country spends an estimated $800 BILLION on Obamas plan to CREATE NEW JOBS.
At that point it becomes CHEAPER to KEEP the jobs you already have than trying to make NEW ones!!

I see the weakening economy actually making all those EXSISTING automobile jobs more IMPORTANT.

143

I know this may sound a little weird, but what about buying Ford stock for both the long and short term? The stock may move enough daily to make a decent return. You could have a few speculative stocks that you trade frequently. But you could also have some long term plays as well. For the past week, I’ve watched Jim Cramer’s “Mad Money”. Many of the stocks he labels a “buy” tend to jump about 10% the following day. Some move more than others. I can see a scenerio where you could buy at the opening and sell later in the day. It doesn’t matter to me if he’s right or wrong. What matters is he apparantly has a following that listens to him blindly. I think its possible to take advantage of a “herd” that is too lazy to do their homework. I’m going to wach this to see if its a trend worth using. When it comes to the job losses, I think that only extends the possibility to add to a Ford position. I like the fact that Ford already started to downsize and do the right things a few years ago. They only need to have enough resources to stay out of bankrupty (which I think they do). They also won’t be have to answer to or comply with the govt. in regards to how they do business. If they don’t have restrictions, they could position themselves to increase their potential market share when the economy improves. I’ve noticed the media keeps using the term Big 3 when referring to this bailout. I hope they doing that. It just adds to the perception Ford is toast along with GM & Chrysler.

144

Because I’m not playing with “real” money in the stock market, my point doesn’t count? That’s quaint.

I have, however, played with “real” money in real estate, in comic books and baseballs, to name a few, and in every one of those, I’ve sold something that has ultimately doubled, tripled, or just plain hit the sky in value jumps compared to what I sold it for. It happens every single day when dealing with things that go up and down in value based on other people’s desire for them. You can play the “hold it until…” game, but what is that “until?” You can also whine about it with the “only if I would have waited a bit more.” ARE you can work it based on the criteria that you put in place, and be happy that you made what you wanted.

Of course, there is the other side of that as well. You know, holding it waiting on that big pay day down the road. I wonder how all those people left holding real estate in CA, Las Vegas, Florida feel about that play now.

Sometimes, I do have a hard time following you, Jake. In another post, you praise PM for following a different investing path that works for him (short term plays) and in this one you beating it down.

Raj

145

Mike just told all of us that he’s playing with a few thousand dollars at a time. For that amount of money, he’s doing things that work for him.
I still think he’d be better off in the long run just buying ford and holding it for 3 to 5 years. But he’s naking money and that’s all that matters.

As for YOU…

If your not playing with REAL MONEY…

YOU HAVE NO OPINION!!!

At least not one that I’m going to play any attention to.

Roger,

When you get some skin in the game…IT’S A NEW GAME!!
Real Estate and Stocks are different animals…

I must say that I temper anything you talk about here because of what I call the REALTOR MENTALITY. Your a salesman…You get PAID to be optomistic. The proof is right in this post…You CONTINUE to blame the MEDIA for a crisis that is excellerating everyday and has roots that extend to the very foundation of our economy.

IT’S NOT THE MEDIA ROGER…IT’S THE ECONOMY!!!

146

In a nutshell…WOW.

First, as usual, you try to tilt everything in your direction, regardless of the intent of the original poster. You blame my position (one the you created for me, btw) on the fact that I’m a REALTOR. Although we’ve had this discussion before, apparently it bears repeating. I was an investor long before I ever had to get me RE license, so my mindset is completely different than the “average” REALTOR. Nuff said.

Second, I have NEVER blamed the media for this crisis. I have, however, blamed the media for pushing this crisis, as well as a multitude of others further and faster than it probably should have or would have, on it’s own. In fact, when it suits you, you have tended to agree.

Third, because I don’t play with “real” money in YOUR stock market, I am no longer allowed to post my thoughts and opinions on a public forum? I guess since this forum as switched from a real estate forum to your stock trading advice and I don’t play with enough money in stocks to qualify, I’m only allowed to lurk in the background and keep my mouth shut, is that the basic outline there, Jake?

It amazes me that if my opinion isn’t something that you’re going to pay attention to why it ALWAYS warrants a response from you.

Unlike you, I do have respect for your opinion, whatever the context. That said, I rarely feel the need to bash my opinion into the heads of others that disagree with it nor do I feel the need to slam others with wise-cracks or putdowns that have opinions that differ from my own.

It’s funny how YOU can say, Mike’s doing it his way and it’s cool, but I’m not allowed to do that without you badmouthing me for it.

It’s cool, however. I get the point. I’ll simply take my marbles and play elsewhere.

Raj

147

GM and Ford stocks are rapidly declining this morning on news that Credit Suisse said that equity may be wiped out under the terms of the bailout program. As I have said, in my experience, stocks that are near bankruptcy trade almost exclusively on news (and rumors). Obviously, Ford isn’t participating in the current bailout, but as you see - that doesn’t matter. They’re still being punished on this news because they are on the same track, just a little behind GM and Chrysler.

That’s why I sold my Ford stock at $3.49 (500 shares, making about $935 profit) and why I will buy again when it gets lower. I currently have an order to buy 500 shares at $1.25, but would buy higher if the call option premiums improve (which they may if the volatility improves in Ford stock).

I’m just not a risk taker like FDJake. In both my real estate business and my trading hobby, I want as close to a sure thing as I can get and I want my profits NOW, not 3-5 years from now. The down side of doing things the way I do them, is that I’m giving up the big upside potential. However, to actually get that big upside potential, you must not only buy and hold the property, but you must sell it at the right time. People that bought dot-com companies in the 90’s had a huge paper profit right up until the crash! Likewise, many stock market participants had huge paper profits using a buy and hold strategy during the 2000’s, right up to the crash! Now that they’ve lost nearly 50% of their portfolio, it will take a 100% move up to get them back to the previous high. OUCH!

Roger - keep posting! I don’t care how much money you trade with or if you don’t trade at all, I would still appreciate your opinion (and everyone else’s opinion)! This would be a boring forum without a lot of different opinions.

Here’s the article.

http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSTRE4BL2AG20081222?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews

Mike

148

I find it hard to believe that Ford will be punished the same way as the others. I think there’s enough smart investors to remain in Ford’s stock… I hope… :cool

149
I find it hard to believe that Ford will be punished the same way as the others.

Don’t look now, but Ford was down more than 15% today (to $2.19), in addition to yesterday’s double digit loss. What’s to keep it up at this point? The economy continues to nosedive; jobs continue to be lost; no-one in their right mind is going to be buying cars; housing prices continue to plunge; foreclosures continue to increase; and business will be bad for the foreseeable future. You’ll see a One handle on that Ford stock in the immediate future (maybe tomorrow) and it could easily end up below $1.

I don’t see another big up move until Obama takes office. We’ve got some time to find the next bottom in Ford stock.

Mike

Mike

150

I think that if enough smart investors look into Ford’s balance sheet, they’ll see that (at least for the next year or so) Ford should be able to hang on without any bailout money. But the question is, can they survive if GM or Chrysler goes under? How much money will they need to adapt to the different scenerios that would create? If they can hang on, wouldn’t they stand to
increase their market share with GM out of the way? Here’s my stategy. I’ll buy when it hits under $2. Then I’ll call Jim Cramer and ask him to “send some love” to the Ford stock :beer

151

that is very true. especially the mental part.

another thing that has been eating me alive lately missing a huge move on a stock you have been following, trading, you basically know enough to run the company. Mine was DRYS the day it went up to 4.75, I had money being settled, it closed @ 4.20’s so i wasnt too worried because its volatile. I was planning on parking a large amount of my investing money on it because its way undervalued. next day it gaps up huge, I’m not buying it now it went up i think 50% or more that day. basically it went to 12 then back tracked and is still moving up now. i coulda , woulda, shoulda made 200k atleast and thats being modest on exit point. I did make some money on it after its back track. got in @ 9 and out in high 12’s.

many people have no idea what it feels like. Everytime i see DRYS name on cnbc I am cussing in my head and out loud too lol. I play back those days in my damn head, wishing i had done something different. it’s tough to let it go. I have been hoping that it would go back to $5 but it seems now its trading on stimulus spending hopes. It actually should not be this high right now but traders are putting alot of value on stimulus plans of mainly china and usa.

152

shoulda made 200k ???

LOL…I would never put that kind of size money into any one stock…An index etf definitely,but a stock never…Especially DRYS…A guy I work with has a ton of LVS and I wont touch it…You guys must have big $$$$ to bet that much on a single stock…Before i went away I bought 12 different bond funds,from junk to international…I’m up about %4 net overall and I’m happy as can be…I guess my risk tolerance has diminished in a big way…It’s nice to see you guys keeping it alive,but 200k on DRYS…Man I’d hate to see your P&L on a bad day…Best of luck on future trades…I’m puzzled as to what will keep moving this market higher…I’m not fighting the trend but at the same time I’m not loading the boat,not that I ever do…Oh I did buy a handful of closed end funds today…Small,like 125k spread out amongst 10 different funds…From reits,US stock,inter stock,debt etc…I’m also sitting back collecting in the area of $8000 a month in dividends from my total portfolio…Yields are too high to let it go by,I want to be paid to be in this market…Best of luck all…

Oh sorry about not posting my entries…poster allagash can vouch for me though…While I was away I emailed him my funds and days of entry and $$$$ invested…No dream trades here…Also told him I bought 20k worth of call options on TBT about 2 weeks ago…Check those babies out…$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

153

rookie

I’m trying to get where your at then ill be more conservative. thats ironic you mentioned LVS. that’s another stock that i had on my watchlist this morning up 20%. DRYS i felt very comfortable at $4, i can only lose the $4 and thats if it went BK. they have locked in 60% rates for years to come, given thats not a high % with bulkers but they have an offshore drillrig buisness that will be given as a dividend share per share that alone made it worth more than $4. DRY ships being that low was way out of line, it was priced at bankruptcy levels. I’m greek also so i guess it’s a loyalty play lol.

the stocks im looking at today were
DXO (wanted a pullback to get back in, not happening :evil)
DZZ bought 500 shares (my 1st buy will add if i have to if it moves against me)
DRYS (up again today)
LVS (might play this tomorrow, i think it will have 1 more day of run left… this is a short term trade only stock.)
FNM ( was gonna buy 30k at .80 but it missed my order by 3 tenths of a cent. I’m kinda iffy about fnm though the money they’re putting into mortgages should make it run up, i think, then again the housing sector is a disaster and they have construction reports tomorrow, will the bad news be ignored or will it go down along with the bad news.)
SKF

I’m puzzled to whats gonna fuel this markets rise too. im kinda puzzled to why its still going up now lol

154

i am so glad i thought this made no sense last April…

from 6.88 then to 1.90 now.

trading well below the 50 and 200 day EMAs and trending lower.

fdjake was right on the day he said buy it… but you should have sold it about a month later. with gas prices way up and demand for trucks declining, it didn’t make sense (to me) before the financial collapse.

i wish i would have known about FAZ and SKF and other 3x ETFs when they started… fortunately, i do now.

you don’t have to start trading in 10s of thousands to make money. don’t fall for that. learn and go for it.

155

I believe fdjake was referring to the 2010 options on Ford. He was also talking about it being more of a long term trade. I think that Ford is in a good position to weather the storm until the economy improves and people start wanting to buy cars again. They’re not taking one dime of the bailout. The just need a $9 Billion backstop if they need it due to a failure of one of the others. The govt. won’t let Ford fail. This is a classic contrarian move. IMO, Ford has a ton of longterm upside and very little risk.

156

Ford has a ton of longterm upside and very little risk.

Ford is a piece of dogsh*t…If you are going to own Ford you should buy GM also…There is no sense of taking the risk on just Ford…Very little risk?..They are just talkling today about mandatory bankruptcies in the auto industry…No risk?..LOL…If the govt bankrupts GM and Chrysler it will greatly effect Ford…Ford has been and will be for many years a worthless trade…Sideways at best…Who needs that type of trade…Much better trades to have out there than this garbage…

157
Ford is a piece of dogsh*t
Who needs that type of trade..Much better trades to have out there than this garbage...

I’d have to agree…at least for the present moment…it just lays there like a pile of crap.

Take Friday’s S&P 500 rally of 2.6%.

Consider both C & F…two stocks currently under $5 bucks each.

Ford for the day…>Open: $1.94 Close: $1.94
Citigroup for the day…>Open: $3.18 Close: $3.91 123%

That said, when they, (along with Chrysler and GM), were coming back to DC after Pelosi sent them home the first time…the momentum there made for a very nice trade…(personally cleared 140% within 48 hours).

-Mike

158

I don’t understand how Ford can go into BK anytime soon. If they have enough cash to survive for the next year and they have a govt. that will serve as a backstop if needed, isn’t that enough to keep the stock from going 0? I think GM and Chrysler are in big trouble even with a bailout. It appears they’re bleeding too much too fast. I’m talking about a 2 yr. timeframe for a Ford turnaround. Certainly not a short term trade. What am I missing?

159

This is the stuff you need to watch.

CAPTURE RATES…Capture rates in the automobile business are sales TAKEN from another maker. In other words…Someone brings in a GM or Honda (to a Ford dealership) and trades it in on a new Ford product. Ford’s capture rates are climbing.

They will also benefit from ANY bankruptcy by GM or Chrysler. Concessions that a bankruptcy would force down GM and Chryslers throats would also apply to Ford. Ford is CURRENTLY getting additional concessions that GM and Chrysler are hammering out NOW with a much more willing to deal UAW. This is happening now.

Ford isn’t out of the woods. It could still go bad. BUT…

PAY ATTENTION…

When you see people moving from OTHER makers INTO Ford products that is TELLING us something. Correction…It’s not TELLING us…It’s SCREAMING at us.

Think it’s all just BS???

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123508913836428083.html

160

That’s a good article. I think its important to remember that Ford’s stock will probably stay low for a while. I get the feeling that there will be time to buy the stock low. But that’s some good insight on indicators and what they mean. Thanx Fdjake.