Ford December sales...UP 32.8%... Annihilating Expectations (their quote)

Random Ramblings
1

http://www.businessinsider.com/ford-sales-up-328-for-december-annihilating-expectations-2010-1

These are DECEMBER NUMBERS…When there was NO CASH FOR CLUNKERS PROGRAM.

Stock price…$11.16

Also of note…It was reported yesterday that Ford has paid an ADDITIONAL $500 million into the VEBA in ADVANCE.
In the near future FORD will have NO RESPONSIBILITY for retirees HEALTH CARE COSTS due to VEBA. Add in RECORD Union contract concessions, Mullally’s CHOPPING of engines from 27 to 6, dropping the number of PLATFORMS from 10 to 5 and this company is a headed in only one direction.

People do not understand how much CASH a properly run car company generates…We are talking BILLIONS and BILLIONS of dollars in profit. And the BEAUTY, the shear BEAUTY of it all???

RECESSION INDUCED PENT UP DEMAND FOR NEW CARS!!!

This company is going to be a CASH COW in 2 to 4 years…WATCH!!

A Great lesson in how WEALTH IS REALLY BUILT!!!

2

As a welcomed twist of fate. My stop loss on Ford took me out at $9.99. However, my company said that Ford was a restricted stock, so I violated trading policy. They required me to buy back all the Ford I sold. I did that at $10.15. And now its up to $11.10 :beer Granted, I only had 35 shares, so not a world altering event. But, I guess we’ll see how this all plays out.

3

Fdjake,

As you know…I have a ton of respect for your Ford play…it’s a classic Peter Lynch auto recessionary play.

Here’s the only gripe I have with it.

If I remember correctly…this whole Ford discussion began a long time ago on this website. Way before the site owner set up this “Random Ramblings” sub category…because discussions like it were overriding the “Beginners, Carleton Sheets” category.

With that said…if I remember correctly, the Ford play discusson started when F stock was at something like $9, or $8 or $7. Don’t really have the time or inclination to look it up…but I’m pretty sure price point was in that general area.

To look back now and identify the October '08 thru March '09 cash grab of $2.00 is pretty easy.

Trading it doesn’t have to be that $2.50 to $4.00 flip you mentioned.

A far cry from the whipsawing of intra-day trading is trend trading based on intervals comprised of a stock’s weekly action.

Below is trend trading at it’s finest…

Ford’s weekly chart with Buy/Sell signaling…courtesy of All Allan blog, (great blog…btw):

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_79cfp3aq254/S1YEwMR13lI/AAAAAAAADfY/IA0aqShvB20/s1600-h/Screen+shot+2010-01-19+at+12.14.41+PM.png

Actually…weekly trading moves the spectrum much more closer to your realm of buy and hold…but with a HUGH benefit…in my opinion.

It clearly identifies entry and exit points based on a number of factors…volume, price volatility, etc.

Look at the signals on this chart:

a) April '08 Buy signal to May '08 Sell Signal…modest gain
b)Nov '08 Buy signal…false start (but it kept you OUT during the tailspin)*
c)March '08 Buy signal…Buy still holding strong, (no get rich quick here)

*if one was into shorting…now things really get interesting.

For someone not to employ a tool like this is beyond my comprehension. It’s protection.

The next BUST is coming…6 months out…1 year out…5 years out.

There’s a lot of people out there that are sick of the 401k depletion game…the right tools are out there if you look hard enough.

Your strategies…coupled with weekly analysis like this…pack a real one, two punch.

Keep up the good work.

-Mike

4

Mike,

You’re absolutely right…

There’s a LOT of ways to do this…and the methods you mentioned would probably CRUSH my return on this investment…

I JUST CAN’T DO THAT…It’s not my style…I’m not that kind of investor…I literally would screw that up BIG TIME.

BUT…It doesn’t mean you or others here can’t be.

For me…just me…The LESS I play with an investment, the better off I am. Believe me…It cost a LOT of money to learn this.

Like selling Chrysler in 1995 thinking I was a genius because it went from $10/share to $60…selling it… and then watching it go to $180!!!
I screwed this up because I sold like an IDIOT during the BEGINNING of a RECOVERY…WHAT A DOPE!!! NEVER, EVER, sell a car company that has TURNED AROUND at the beginning of an economic recovery period…These companies can’t COUNT the money they make fast enough when pent up demand meets recovery.

GREAT POINTS!!! :beer

5

MarketClub’s annual subscription cost…$450.00.

MarketClub’s “Monthly” Buy Signal for Ford in April @ $2.99?..Priceless.

-Mike

6

And how much FORD did you BUY with your $450 market club buy signal membership???

0______________________.

Priceless…LITERALLY!!!

7

you’re exactly right.

and I’m glad you’re sitting pretty.

had no proficiency in the tools then.

so I’m a tortoise.

got a plan, though. good one.

nearly at implementing.

-Mike