As you know…I have a ton of respect for your Ford play…it’s a classic Peter Lynch auto recessionary play.
Here’s the only gripe I have with it.
If I remember correctly…this whole Ford discussion began a long time ago on this website. Way before the site owner set up this “Random Ramblings” sub category…because discussions like it were overriding the “Beginners, Carleton Sheets” category.
With that said…if I remember correctly, the Ford play discusson started when F stock was at something like $9, or $8 or $7. Don’t really have the time or inclination to look it up…but I’m pretty sure price point was in that general area.
To look back now and identify the October '08 thru March '09 cash grab of $2.00 is pretty easy.
Trading it doesn’t have to be that $2.50 to $4.00 flip you mentioned.
A far cry from the whipsawing of intra-day trading is trend trading based on intervals comprised of a stock’s weekly action.
Below is trend trading at it’s finest…
Ford’s weekly chart with Buy/Sell signaling…courtesy of All Allan blog, (great blog…btw):
Actually…weekly trading moves the spectrum much more closer to your realm of buy and hold…but with a HUGH benefit…in my opinion.
It clearly identifies entry and exit points based on a number of factors…volume, price volatility, etc.
Look at the signals on this chart:
a) April '08 Buy signal to May '08 Sell Signal…modest gain
b)Nov '08 Buy signal…false start (but it kept you OUT during the tailspin)*
c)March '08 Buy signal…Buy still holding strong, (no get rich quick here)
*if one was into shorting…now things really get interesting.
For someone not to employ a tool like this is beyond my comprehension. It’s protection.
The next BUST is coming…6 months out…1 year out…5 years out.
There’s a lot of people out there that are sick of the 401k depletion game…the right tools are out there if you look hard enough.
Your strategies…coupled with weekly analysis like this…pack a real one, two punch.
Keep up the good work.