I am a novice real estate investor who is trying understand what an experienced investor who do in my position.
Background: I purchased a new 3 property in Las Vegas 2.5 years ago for 155k. The property is a 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath, 1900 sq feet house, 7800 sq foot cornet lot on a culdesac.
My estimate of the current valuation is 335k, based on a comp a few months ago and the price of new houses that are being sold around the corner from my house.
I have paid the mortgage down to 50k left so I have about 300k in the property.
I am currently leasing the property out and the lease is up in mid february.
I work and live in San Diego at a good job that I value but for the sake of this issue assume that I would be willing to move to Las Vegas to establish the house as my primary residence.
I don’t want to lose house valuation because I view the money as retriment nestegg money but I also don’t want to pay the capital gains taxes.
Question: What do the most experienced|professional investors consider the down side risk and the likelyhood of that down side in the current market.
For example, the house could go down in value in the next 2 years as much as x% and the likelyhood of this occuring is y%. (e.g. the value could drop 20% but the likelyhood of this happening is 10%)
I am trying to understand what the smart money would do in my position, just sell the property and pay the 25k taxes or move into the property, wait two years to sell it to avoid the capital gains taxes but risk the valuation dropping.
I would greatly appreciate any feedback as I need to make a descision in the next few months.
If you can indicate your background it would really help me understand your perspective. (e.g. long time investor, real estate agent, mortgage broker, etc)