Detroit is the new Gold?

Had to chuckle about the analogy from Forbes Online.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/joshlinkner/2012/08/30/wish-you-bought-gold-in-06-youll-wish-you-bought-detroit-in-12/

8/30/2012 Wish You Bought Gold in '06? You’ll Wish You Bought Detroit in '12.

Sorry if you slept through class and crammed for the exam, but at some point during your freshman year, your Economics 101 professor taught you the very basic principle advancing everyone to the next level: Buy low. Sell high. You could forget the rest of the semester’s worth of material in a blur, but be sure to take in this one key component and carry it with you through life. Right now however, investors are ignoring this basic tenet of their practice, overpaying for property, companies and brands on both coasts.

The ideal time to infuse capital into something is when it’s at the start of an upward trend, not when it’s already at its peak. Detroit has bottomed out, so now, there’s nothing but upside. Those of us here can already see the tipping point. On a quick Google search for residential property, I came across a great one-bedroom apartment in Central Chelsea, right in the heart of Manhattan. This nice property for a cute couple can be yours for a cool $2.3 million. By contrast, I also found a home in Indian Village, a 115-year-old historic district in Detroit, with palatial residences built by some of the world’s finest architects. This 7-bedroom mansion in the heart of the neighborhood, with a full corner lot and 3-car garage could be yours for just $305,000. This isn’t the extreme case of vacant lots auctioned for $200 apiece, nor is it the unfortunate case of rampant foreclosures, through which you could buy a house for $10,000; this is a well-kept home in a vibrant community. Why are you buying sky-high? You should know better.

It’s not just residential. Within a five-block radius from the downtown Detroit epicenter, you can buy a vacant building. Yes, building. My business partner Dan Gilbert has purchased approximately 3 million square feet of commercial property in the heart of downtown Detroit over the last few years through his firm, Bedrock Real Estate Services. Perhaps the most telling example is his recent acquisition of the M@dison building, where Detroit Venture Partners (where I am CEO and Managing Partner) and other startups are housed. This 48,000 square foot building was a historic theater, which closed in 1984 and the five-story structure sat vacant for decades. Located across a park from Comerica Park and Ford Field (where the Tigers and Lions each play, respectively), along a stretch with nightlife/restaurants, and within a five-minute walk to the official city center, it was a waste being empty. Gilbert purchased the building for approximately $1 million, and then put $12 million into its renovation. After opening in October 2011, the building was boasting 100% occupancy with a full-fledged entrepreneurial hub within six months… all paying market rent.

If you could go back in history to purchase a skyscraper in New York City at 1930s rock-bottom pricing, you’d be tripping over yourself with excitement to make an offer. So why then are herd-following investors too chicken to do the same in Detroit? Quite frankly, it boggles my mind – the potential financial opportunity here is so vast, it’s difficult to imagine how someone could shy away from such a chance.

Throughout history, those people who have created the most wealth and changed the way we live – like the Rockefellers, for instance – have been those willing to stomach some risk. They could see the future they’ve impacted, and they believed in making that happen, by any means necessary. Why not? If you bought gold the first week of 2006, you’d have paid $530 an ounce. By the first week of this year, that same ounce would be worth three times that – $1598. A 3x return on a longstanding commodities investment is amazing, and largely unheard of, but it’s a perfect analogy to the situation in Detroit. Buildings are either bursting at the seams with wait lists, or vacant. Let’s fill more of them while you can buy low now. Later, you can sell high – and make your Econ professor proud.

Thanks for the link to the article.

The risk is assuming that Detroit will recover. The key factor is the demographics. Will the city’s population continue to decline or will there be an upturn later? Some USA cities have seen a 30 to 40 year decline in their population. When each year you need fewer houses, it is hard for the value of the existing stock to rise (supply and demand says prices will fall or flatten given inflation).

Ghost towns are an example of communities that lost their reason to exist. People move on to brighter opportunities. Detroit will not become a ghost town. It could be a while until it finds a new purpose. The educational base can be an asset if enough bright people want to start businesses given the low cost of living. Any investment in Detroit would be an income play with maybe a long term option on appreciation. More likely it will be an income play with an inflation hedge but no real appreciation for a very long time. They have to rightsize the size of the city and the housing.

Very interesting post, Dave Windsor and BTL.

I have seen pictures of those wonderful Detroit auto magnate mansions. They don’t build them like that anymore. Makes all those California and Texas McMansions just look like cardboard crackerboxes. Will those homes be around in 100 years? I don’t think so. Detroit would be very interesting to visit and go on a homes tour.

Furnishedowner

Hmmm, came across another article the other day titled, “Developers buy every tax-foreclosed home in Harper Woods in one swoop”

So basically, one developer bought all 62 houses listed on a tax-foreclosure sale in Harper Woods Detroit, a small suburb that borders Detroit proper. This is the second time in the past few months that one entity buys everything listed on the tax sale list in Metro Detroit. Is Detroit the new Gold?

http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=2012310040223

Developers in Harper Woods have bought the city’s entire stock of properties slated for tax foreclosure.

It is the second time in as many months that a large number of properties has been sold to a single entity. The Free Press reported in August that all 627 properties up for tax foreclosure auction in Macomb County were purchased by a limited liability corporation for $4.7 million.

The developers in Harper Woods bought the city’s 29 homes that otherwise would have gone to Wayne County’s tax foreclosure auction for $385,170, city officials said. Harper Woods bought the properties from Wayne County in September and then sold them to the company, identified by the city as Harper Woods Homes.

Company representatives proposed the idea to the city. The city won’t make a profit on the sale, but the city will get its portion of the back taxes that were owed on the properties.

The purchase and sale marks a first for the city of 6,238.

“Right now, it appears to be a win-win for the community and the company … and our taxpayers,” said Randolph Skotarczyk, the city’s acting city manager. He said the houses, some of which were in disrepair, have already been brought up to code.

Skotarczyk said having properties sold to one group of local developers is an improvement over the many nonlocal entities that have bought the city’s tax foreclosed properties in the past.

“We’ve been working hard to try and reduce vacant homes in our community,” he said. The city “started having landlords that were difficult to talk to and weren’t readily accessible.”

Mayor Ken Poynter said the company isn’t in it for a “quick buck” but instead plans to rehabilitate the properties and sell them to people who would live in them. He said the developers have a good success rate and own properties in the tri-county metro Detroit area.

“To me, this group is truly committed to selling these homes – not flipping quickly but rehabbing them (for) homeowners,” Poynter said.

Multiple attempts to reach individuals identified by Harper Woods officials as being connected with the company were unsuccessful. Those individuals include a real estate broker in Pleasant Ridge and the president of a property company that lists addresses in Eastpointe and Bingham Farms on state corporation reports.

The state’s Bureau of Commercial Services, Corporation Division, does not have any documents pertaining to the company, although that could be a sign the company is just being set up.

If Detroit recovers, it is a good sign that everyone who took advantage of these times are going to be crazy rich. Detroit is like the worst of the worst real estate economy. No offense to anyone.

And that is the magic question for sure. Is it likely to recover…would have to seriously look at the auto market there and see what their plans are for rebuilding in the city…or if they’re moving elsewhere too.

Like any investment there is definitely risk involved. I bet no one would have predicted gold would have gone parabolic the past 10+ years and the fed on a printing frenzy. Or who could have predicted Apple’s 5 year run?

I’m not saying Detroit will bounce back in 5-10 years but investors are picking up properties and young workers are moving in. Whole Foods is opening its first store in Detroit in the near future which comes as an interesting development for the city’s prospects.

If the auto industry can get its act together and be a market leader instead of a laggard the motor city might be beginning its comeback.

They have right to work now. Detroit is on its way back!!

Sure sounds like they are on their way back. Return of the Motor City!

The sports teams are roaring back (no pun intended) and confidence is rising with new investments around the city.