50-50 It's Lifes greatest lesson.

King Daniel: I did explain some of the myths, with the biggest myth being that all people want to succeed at some career goal. Another is that money and commission motivates people. I would question this and ask "are you sure?

Example: When i was a kid the sales firm recruited Mr Smart, a real Mr Cool, he was my hero for 3 days. We discovered he moaned all day to go to a pub, when he got there he didn’t want to leave and what did he do?, he wanted to play the piano all afternnoon and to hell with orders and sign-ups. After 3 days he was fired, you see the other men working with him on a team of 6 reps soon realised he was costing us all $100 dollars a week in lost work and wasted-sales-hours. The question is how come commisison and money didn’t make him switch on? Now how many men do you know or have met who are like that?

Now here’s another one, S-E-X, how many orders have been lost because the rep was with a dolly-bird, in a motel playing Drs and Nurses, with the nurse on top testing him for stamina? Again what happened here to the big commission cheques motivates all good men argument? My experience is more energy is lost thinking about sex, than clinching another sale. And don’t worry about your voice, concentrate on your eye signals, your body language and never let the mask slip. Meaning if the clients got big boobs, look at her forehead.

  • In another life I was an exceptional sales person. Please don’t remind me, I’m in denial.

RE HUSTLER,

So, what is your point? Is your point that life is just a crap shoot and that nothing you can do will give you better than a 50-50 chance of succeeding? Is starting a REI business just a crap shoot and pure luck decides who wins and who loses? Things like education, study, and work have no bearing on the outcome? If one person pays retail and another pays half the retail price, they have an equal chance of success or failure?

What are you trying to say and how does it apply to REI?

Mike

I agree for the most part Bob. A lot of people are not motivated by money or success. When they aren’t, they don’t have a 50% chance at success, they have zero chance. When you do what’s necessary to prepare and execute flawlessly because you are motivated by your goal to do so, your chances of succeeding are great.

Pretty much all I’m saying is 50-50 can’t be true if individuals can influence the outcome. Some will always be at 0 and some can always be at 100.

Never let the mask slip sounds like a good life rule…

Mike,

No point or axe to grind, just a personal observation. After 55 years I’m of the opinion that no matter what you do, sometimes tossing a coin up gives a better result. I read once that depressed people are realists, that pessimists are clever, cautious people. What I hate is all the motivational bull-s**t, we hear, are exposed to, and are supposed to believe in.

I have clinched more sales talking about mistakes, about being depressed, about being human, about broken promises, than you’d imagine. Not once do I come out with any of this young Lions stuff, take it from me sincerity sell, honesty sells, and bulls**t doesn’t.

It’s tough to get up day after day thinking you’ll fail and what you’re doing will never work. Starting a business takes an immense amount of persistence and often times large amounts of money that you can’t afford to lose are on the line. Why would I invest in a property that I thought would lose money? Negative thinking will cripple a business because opportunities will be passed by because “They’ll never work.”

Overly optimistic is much more dangerous than pessimistic. Too much optimism lets you forget about reality. If you can be optimistic about reality, it’s because you’ve got a good plan in front of you that has a good chance of succeeding. After you’ve crossed all your T’s and dotted all your I’s, if the plan still looks like it has a legitimate chance in hell, you should be optimistic about what lays ahead.

50-50.

You go into a casino and play the even chances, the bet looks good, but what you don’t know is that every hour, meaning every 100 spins of the wheel, the croupier throws on average 11 blacks, 9 odds, 8 lows and 8 evens in a row . During the next hour, meaning the next 100 spins she throws 10 reds, 8 evens, 9 blacks, and 7 highs.
The odds are evens, but if you pick the wrong bet and chase your losses every hour you can get wiped out at the casino tables x four times. I say life is a Casino table, that you have winning spells, followed by huge losses.

Now here’s the crunch, you can change your bets and strategy, you can seek advice, ask the 3 Stooges to throw the dice for you, but IN THE END it all becomes an even chance. It would be off-topic to write about winning systems at gambling, suffice to say this 4 losing streaks every hour, on the hour, per 100 bets law applies.

If you disagree ask your best friend to tell you what happened to him? or call back in 25 years time.

King Daniel and Mike,

Our biggest enemy is wishful thinking.
All good life-plans are based mostly on wishful thinking.
The snag is every 10 years one lot of wishful thoughts fade and another set take their place, and so on and so forth. If you examine famous business careers, examine the last 50 years successes, or examine famous home ownership records - you can trace the ups and downs of the people involved. My heroes Conde Nast and R W Hearst and Thomas Alva Edison all went bust at some point in their lives. Joe Louis, Lou Costello and Flo Ziegfeld ditto. All i can add is keep peddling, the faster you peddle the harder it is for conventional folks to keep up with you.

What I hate is all the motivational bull-s**t, we hear, are exposed to, and are supposed to believe in. ....take it from me sincerity sell, honesty sells, and bulls**t doesn't

I hate all the motivational nonsense also, but I disagree with you that bs doesn’t sell. I have been to many REIA conventions, REIA meetings, etc. The “gurus” make a fortune selling bs. People are looking for a get rich scheme that involves no money, no credit, no work, and no effort.

I was at a large REIA convention recently. One of the speakers was giving a presentation about having a coach. In fact, he was selling his e-mail coaching. As I recall, it was $1,800 for a year. He didn’t ever say what the coaching would be about (other than something about setting goals). I didn’t hear him make any claim of real estate expertise. When the presentation was over, he said that he only had 47 coaching spots left. Then, he started counting down 47…42…39…32…29 unitil he reached zero. People were RUNNING down the isles to plop down their $1,800. Even after he reached zero, he continued selling the spots that were now supposedly gone. AMAZING!

In my observation, motivational hype and b.s. sells much better than the truth. Who’s going to plop down $1,800 to be told that starting a business is hard work and that the majority of newbies fail? On the other hand, there are literally millions of people who will plop down big bucks to be told that their fantasy can come true - AND with no money, no credit, and no work! RIDICULOUS!

Mike

Casino games are GAMES of probability. Your probability of winning are much less than 50-50 but in this case, winning and losing are determined by probability.

In business, succeeding and failing can be evident from the conception of the idea. The Art of War says, “All battles are won before they are ever fought.” It goes on to say how they are won and lost. It has to do with assessing your own strengths and weaknesses along with your enemies for the applicable climate and terrain of the battle. How this translates to REI or any business is to know your competition better then they know themselves. Then to assess and change your own strengths and weaknesses to overcome them. The terrain and climate is the RE market or any industry’s market. Understand from the beginning how you measure up to your competition and how you fit in the market. This total situational awareness is what leads to successful battles, operations, and businesses. It’s not the luck of the draw. You can’t flip a coin to be better than a company who wants your market share or to attract customers and clients.

Neglecting to thoroughly understand the situation your getting yourself in and you have a next to nothing chance of success when your up against someone who did take the time to plan a strategy considering every facet of the battle. It takes much less than a failed execution to recognize a failure. Those who don’t add strength to their weaknesses and choose not to capitalize on their strengths to defeat their enemies face certain failure. This explains why 99+% of new businesses fall flat on their face.

So it is said that if you know your enemies and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles; if you do not know your enemies but do know yourself, you will win one and lose one; if you do not know your enemies nor yourself, you will be imperiled in every single battle.

King Daniel and Mike, good posts, I’m soaking ot all in.

I can tell you two are the bees-knees. But looking at Daniels post - how do you find these wizards who can spot another firms weaknesses and strengths, who can plan a sales campaigh thats got power and strength to it, which your STAFF will buy and accept, and how do you acquire the self-discipline to make it all knit together in order to keep the sales- kettle boiling.

Last week I advertised for staff, I got 12 applicants, all were rejected, 30 years ago maybe 3 would have got started. You see age breeds meaness, it breeds distrust, and your content to say No. I might have a winner on the boil right now, but to be honest I’m the only one who thinks so. You see when your interviewing for staff your looking for persistance, determination, cheerfullness and honesty and the work spirit. And it never seems to walk through the door. Recruiting RE staff, I’d do better contacting a Dating Agency?

how do you find these wizards who can spot another firms weaknesses and strengths, who can plan a sales campaigh thats got power and strength to it, which your STAFF will buy and accept, and how do you acquire the self-discipline to make it all knit together in order to keep the sales- kettle boiling.

How you recognize strength and weaknesses in other companies and people: READ BETWEEN THE LINES

The actual actions will be specific to the type of business your into. Let’s say we are starting a firearms manufacturing company. Our goal is to make something with exceptional reliability, top notch accuracy, cost effective, extremely durable, operable in all weather conditions, well-known, etc.

Now what do the competitors have over us? Brand recognition, government and civilian contracts, money to burn, etc. Specifically:

Glock- Known for it’s reliability, out-of-the-box accuracy, lightweight polymer frame, relatively cost effective, practical safety features. Replacement parts are easy to find. The gun is easy to clean. It’s also heavily used in law enforcement. I know the owner is the richest man in Austria so he’s got money to combat an “ambush” so I shouldn’t be calling him out with my advertising. The companies limitations lie in the design and brand recognition. They are stuck selling exclusively pistols with a certain design. It’s plastic frame is often criticized because well, it’s a plastic gun.

HK- Again, known for it’s spectacular reliablity and out of the box accuracy. Some of the designs are the most heavily tested of any gun. You can put 20-50,000 rounds through it (the entire life of the gun) without having a single malfunction. Heavily used in elite military and law enforcement units which is a tribute to the quality. This is a quality brand, good ol’ german engineering, but the prices are exceptionally high. A pistol with a threaded barrel might cost $1100-1500+ USD. It’s limitations are in cost effectiveness which limits it’s universal appeal.

Kimber- Original designer of the 1911 (formerly used in the US military as the standard issue pistol). With this pistol, you have to break it in by putting 300-500 rounds through it so the mechanical parts rub together to make it all function seamlessly. WHEN a malfunction occurs, you have to send it back to the manufacturer for testing and repairs. The customer service policies are awful. You have to pay for overnight shipping to the manufacturer after spending $100 dollars in ammo to find out it doesn’t work right, then when it get’s “repaired” you have to put another 300-500 rounds through it to make sure it’s in working condition. I don’t need to discuss it’s weaknesses as they’ve already been noted. The strengths of this company and this design are in the 1911. The pistols design has been piggybacked and improved by almost every pistol manufacturer (including the aforementioned) which is a testament to it’s engineering.

All companies have strengths and weaknesses, the evidence is in their products and services. A bad weapon to me means a company has done little testing, it’s engineers are stupid, they have a small R&D budget, they are more concerned with quantity than quality. It also tells me they are short on cash which is why they are rushing an incomplete design out the door. Chances are their previous designs have flopped which explains their lack of current income.

A company with far more strengths than weaknesses you have to move around them instead of through them. I’d tackle the weak company head on, I’d avoid the strong company head on but rather quietly fill their small void with the consumers. Since HK’s only problem is they are expensive; I’d dissect their designs, and try to make a pistol that is very similar in operation but much cheaper to manufacturer. Or even make a product a loss leader to bait customers in to sell them my assortment of other void-filling guns.

I like what Danny said about him being right 100% of the time. It is the customers who are wrong 50% of the time. In new construction sales exactly 50% of all the customers will disagree on every feature of a house. To one group I am right 100% of the time on the color/fan/faucet choice to the other group I am 100% wrong for putting that color/fan/fixture in. Conclusion you can keep 50% of the people happy 100% of the time.

I like this item that Mike posted,

When the presentation was over, he said that he only had 47 coaching spots left. Then, he started counting down 47…42…39…32…29 unitil he reached zero. People were RUNNING down the isles to plop down their $1,800. Even after he reached zero, he continued selling the spots that were now supposedly gone. AMAZING!

it is amazing: I’ve seen Billy Graham do this mass call out with great effect, I’m an atheist - so sat still. Another time was in a Black Baptist Church in Seattle, the Minister using a bass microphone hynoptised the audience into believing Jesus was with them in person, when he invited them up to meet him about 30 went forward, they wept and cried and shook with emotion. and it was all a shameless sham, but it does reveal how important words are when they are said in the correct way. You could argue with good reasonj that perhaps 10% of the world will believe just about anything. I met someone once, a female, who said in all sincerity; " I never try to sell, I never try to pursuade people, I just look for mugs, idiots, clients who want to impress me, and sign them up. Doing it the other way is just too painful for me. Not a top rep, but consistent.

King Daniel posted about guns and commencing a gun manufactory biz.

Let’s say we are starting a firearms manufacturing company. Our goal is to make something with exceptional reliability, top notch accuracy, cost effective, extremely durable, operable in all weather conditions, well-known, etc.

To me this is the standard sales-pitch. My view is we produce crap, the biggest piece of junk we can. Its got a wood handle as used and recommended by Jesse James, a silver chrome barrel, last seen in the the From Russia with Love film, it takes standard bullets, you need to put it behind someones earhole to make it accurate, and it sells for $99 dollars. We send five free to five famous people and advertise " As supplied to the Elvis Presley Estate and Liz Taylor" etc. We then get the [mock] love rival of an famous ex-actor to use it to try to shoot him with, we release press release headlines saying “Distraught husband flees into the night after trying to kill Rock Hudson with Dillinger replica”" Police search for film stars assassin", etc. We tie it in with the slogan, “Deadly in the right hands”, and the packaging makes it look great. Its brand name is The Dillinger", “The gun America Loves”. We then produce 1000 numbered copies all signed by the maker and sell one back to ourselves on Ebay for $3150 dollars. We then bring out the leather upholstered model favoured by your local Sherrif, and we run classified ads saying; Wanted Dillinger Pistol made by King Daniel, must be authentic, will pay top-dollars, try me for $ 2000 dollars now". You see Daniel we have to decide are we salesmen, are we the best salesmen, the sellers of dreams and manufacturers of publicity, or straight players. The products alter, the sales ideas and approaches do not.

Bob,

I don’t see the connection. You asked how a wizard would identify superiorities and inferiorities in the competition. The short answer is to evaluate the total package of the company.

Evaluate their marketing: What’s the message? What’s it lacking?
Evaluate their products and services: How can you make yours better?
Evaluate their total relationship with the market: Can you go buy replacement parts at any store? Are the sales reps available and reliable?

You learn all this from the clients perspective. You take the information gained and make some pretty good guesses about the inside business affairs. If it’s a public company you study their income statements. Identify which locations they are in and ask yourself, Why? Figure out why they push their crap on a certain type of people. Some firearms manufacturers only make and sell weapons to militaries, some specialize in law enforcement, some hunting.

Then you look at the entire market. What’s the total size of the market? Who’s the average buyer? Which company is dominating? Why? Which ones are struggling? Why? A start up company is in a fantastic position because no one can study them like they can study the competition. No one can defend against a smart new company because no one knows they exist, until they pull the carpet out from everyone.

You paint the total picture about the competition and the market and figure out how you can be better in the eyes of the customers and clients.

You can make a great business selling garbage to idiots. Someone bought a freakin’ piece of toast for $10,000 on eBay. Longevity is reserved for those who really do produce a quality product. You can’t continue to sell your weapons to the military and law enforcement officers and give them a toy.

P.S.- You don’t have to call me King Daniel, I am partial to Yer Honor though…

Yer Honour Mr Justice Daniel,

I agree with every word you have said and every word said makes sense and is the proven basis for a viable company who wants to dominate the market with a proven product that will stand the test of time.

But your talking mega-bucks for research, marketing, manufacturing facilities and staff. Just bringing your products [in this case guns] to market is going to cost a fortune and all these costs have to be wrote off. You mention studying your competitors, shouldn’t you also study other gun makers who failed, and find out why they failed and what went wrong.

A simple marketing route might be to get hold of the Russian who invented the Kalisnikov rifle, bring him to the USA, put up a factory bearing his name and in sales terms you have made a mega-leap forward. Another highway is to find some Chinese / Czech gun mnfrs and have him update their best design exclusively for you, meaning keep away from gun manufacturing and overheads. In the UK all our gun firms have gone to the bust. Another thing why guns, why not property, you have all the intelligence, all the insights required to be a mega-millionaire in property, guns is rocket science and 5001 regulations, property is common-sense and a bit of simple wheeler dealing.

  • Buy, borrow a book called The Day they Shook the Pear Tree. the bio of Hetty Green. In the UK a good book is the Property Game. all about our own success people. These are people who from small beginnings became huge financial successes, wouldn’t you like to pass on to your children a property portfolio and not an Armoury. * I like the name King Daniel, it would look good on an earthmover or excavator, or you could have Daniel King - a name you can trust. [I’’ tell the Queen you what an Earldom]

It’s funny you mention Kalashnikov. I had the opportunity to meet Mikhail Kalashnikov about 2 years ago. Very humble guy for designing the most popular weapon on earth (with the most blood on it), but he doesn’t have any money from it. If I was really starting a gun manufacturing company, I’d go MUCH more in depth on my research. I’d know the birthdates and favorite foods of the company owner’s grandchildren. The things I mentioned were an abbreviated version. It would cost some money but it would be give me almost guaranteed success.

Your absolutely right that the property biz doesn’t take half that amount of research. I will buy that book before the sun goes down. Thanks for the recommendation.

King Daniel works for me now that I think about it. It’ll be good practice for when you put the good word in to the Queen for me.

I have spent a lifetime in sales. Suffice to say that whenever I have worked for big firms and in big sales teams [like 200 reps in one office] [or 2000 reps in one firm] we had a product mix of talents. What was amazing is that those with plans failed, those with outside interests failed, those who had to take the wife or children to the Doctors failed. When I say failed I mean their total weekly sales were below the average. So who was it who succeeded, in short, ME. WHY?

I told myself when I got 20 orders that day I could quit and go home. I wanted to go home badly some days, I wanted a cup of tea, a sit down, to get warm, but the self-imposed rule was NOT UNTIL YOU’VE GOT 20 ORDERS, until then your not quitting. It worked and every day I registered my target of 20. Now here’s a little secret; the avarage number of orders per rep -per week was 14 per week. My daily target was 1.5 x times the weekly rate. They took 14 orders - I took some weeks 149 orders.
The snag is finding people like me is impossible, hopeless. so you cannot plan a business on recruiting my type. You could say we are legends. In some firms only 2 men of my type are to be found. Remember sales plans depend on salesmen and actual sales recorded, reseach is always subservient to the hours worked selling your products.

I agree Bob, even the best plans change when the first bullet’s fired. Deviating from any plan is always necessary. Already having a surplus of information to work with makes those deviations something of an informed decision rather than just a reaction. When I say a “plan” I don’t always mean a written road map with every action predetermined. I mean determine a mission (20 orders a day) and figure out what is needed to accomplish that while accounting for as many variables as you can. That means a constant adjustment to your sales tactics based on a number of different things. You wouldn’t want to try to sell crap door-to-door on foot in the rain or when it’s 5 degrees outside.

Sometimes the best plans are NO MORE PLANS.
*
I would argue that in the UK and USA there are over 500 000 millionaires who never made it, who are paupers, almost broke, and not noticed. Why. Because they were to careful!
*
So here’s a plan: To be a millionaire you have NOT got to be so careful, just get on with it and stop looking over your shoulder. Do It.

[Thanks Dan, advice taken on board]