Dave,
So is it fair to assume that you are a buyer of Gold at this price point?..Im not…Im a seller here…And a little lesson for you…The equity markets and the RE markets are worlds apart.,the NYC RE market is hardly climbing…Stuyvestant town has lost %40 of its value,thats what I call climbing…There are tons of co-ops and retail space available…I dont feel that constitutes climbing…And lets not forget that any buying that has been done in NYC is mostly by foreign investors…I have no idea about Toronto…I also feel you need to do a little chart work…Gold couldnt be more toppy here,surely any newbie investor would wait for a pullback before jumping on board…And being the experienced equity/commodity investor you are I’m sure you are well aware when commodities pullback they do so to the tune of %35-%40…Gold is hovering around 100 band on the stochastics level on any chart you pull up…Pro’s are pairing out here and possibly overselling their positions (getting short)…
Soros routinely uses the media to his advantage but this time I feel he is being honest…Traders buy in advance,they dont wait for the $h*t to hit the fan to buy gold or commodities…They knew years ago to buy this metal just as when Cascade Investments was buying silver and Pan American Silver Corp many years ago.Take a look who the director of PAAS is,none other than William Fleckenstein…Im sure you know who he is…Oh you dont?..He is the guy that shorted the nasdaq at 5000 and made Gates a fortune…Pro’s make moves in advance,that’s why they are pro’s…Same reason why China is hoarding oil now,what do you think they wait til it goes up to $150 per barrel again to start buying LOL…
The Hamptons is an extension of the NYC RE market and I can assure you that in no way has that market recovered…Tons of properties still for sale and many below rebuild cost…Many marked down millions,hardly climbing…
I buy investments when they are out of favor and have no where to go but up,or in this case get short and have no where to go but down…(for the record Im not short Gold nor am I long it)…Its too dangerous for me personally or to allocate my fund into it…
In this case we can agree to disagree but my opinions are formed from extensive research…As I’m sure yours are…
I wish you the best in your investments…Please dont take my response personally as I’m quite passionate about my line of work and I take great pride in it…I work extremely hard at my craft…As Im sure you do …
The Hamptons is not Manhattan. Last time I checked, there’s still a huge demand for millions of square feet of office space in Manhattan.
I don’t care what China does with oil. Governments normally do illogical and inefficient things. That’s why Soros is known as the man who broke the Bank of England.
Like I said, I’m not a commodities trader because it doesn’t interest me like real estate, though I did learn a few things about how it works.
I’m not sure what you meant by a 35%-40% pullback. Are you saying you can’t daytrade commodities? You can’t dump gold if it falls within a few percent of the daily price like you can with stock?
Wouldn’t you agree that copying people more successful than you can make you more successful? “Listening” to someone more successful than you may not be the case as it may be a sales pitch with their own agenda, but copying their “actions”–that has tremendous POWER. Think about this for a moment. Soros is not an idiot. He’s made billions in trading. He’s holding onto gold. Why would he suggest anything that would lower its price if he’s planning to dump it in the near future? Does that gambit make any sense?
Think back to when you wanted to sell something. Do you downsell before you sell it? Say you bought a $200K house for $100K. You don’t want it anymore. Half a year later, you list it and find a buyer willing to give you $130K cash for it. Do you upsell the future of the property and say this house is worth $150K-$200K to build their confidence and suggest that they’ll get it if they changed their mind and wanted to sell it in a year or do you downsell the property and tell the buyer it may be worth $50K next year? You tell the buyer it will be worth $50K and he’ll lower his offer to $25K. You don’t downsell something you own if you’re planning on selling it soon. The only reason you’d downsell it is if you wanted to buy more property in the neighbourhood and you didn’t want others to buy it to keep the price up.
So, ask yourself this, why would a trader who’s made $11billion downsell gold when he owns a lot of it? Maybe he’s trying to turn investors away so he can buy more. Maybe if you copy the more successful guy, you’re going to make some serious money. Screw stochastic charts. Keep an eye on the actions of the big shots. There’s a time value of money when holding onto commodities like anything else so he’s holding onto it for more profit. No other reason. Otherwise, he would have dumped it. Sell when he sells. That’s what will make you the real money and there’s still money to be made in gold. If gold does get to $2,000 an ounce before Soros sells, you just missed out on a lot of money.
Dave,
No I’m not a billionaire like Soros but I run a good amount of money for someone half his age…And I follow alot of the pro’s I work with…I look up and follow different guys like David Tepper,Steve Cohen,Eddie Lampert…Just curious which RE mogul did you follow to make this genius move?
It took me 8 years to move from buying my first duplex and other converted houses into buying an 18 unit building. I’m taking a huge financial loss over a building I’m dumping this year (probably in the $200K range–money that could have been used as a downpayment for something better) and it’s sending me back years from where I thought I’d be, but I’m still happy. It kinda burns at my heart and soul when I think about how much time I spent rehabbing for less than min. wage, but no regrets. I value the learning experience, regardless of whether it was financially rewarding or not. Ask yourself, are you that kind of person? Can you come to terms with this? Or if you lost that $30K or couldn’t pull it out until 8 years later after putting in lots of free work, would this get you upset to the point of losing interest in doing it? Results vary in real estate outcomes. Look deeper and ask yourself if is this something you’d really enjoy doing a year from now if you didn’t see those “get rich quick” results?
I have to say you have brass cojones questioning someone of my stature…LOL…
Your stature?! You run a good amount of money or it’s yours personally? There is a difference. I don’t think you have a lot if you interpret Soros’ article as saying gold has hit its peak because there’s nothing that would cause anyone to reach that conclusion unless it’s taken out of context, which is what you did.
I’ll admit, I followed the wrong RE moguls and did a lot of trial and error. These were more of writers selling books that I learned from. I bought low in a bad area instead of jumping on the Toronto bandwagon 5 years ago. Then, I meet people who where buying $400K townhouses in Cabbagetown and flipping them for $200K-$300K more in a few months. I never even knew about those tricks to build business credit until half a year ago, which is probably how they got the money to flip all those townhouses. I met another friend with a job making $30K a year and bought a million dollar condo and flipped it for a lot more. It had to be with business credit because that person came from a working class family like I did. Maybe I don’t own an 80 storey skyscraper like Trump, but I do own a couple large apartment buildings. I’ve done pretty well in real estate, but I could have done 100 times better and would have owned a skyscraper by now had I stayed in Toronto instead of thinking Toronto’s bubble would burst 5 years ago.
That’s what you’re doing right now. You’re doing what I did 5 years ago and buying something else instead of copying other successful people.
As long as a multi-billionaire like Soros is holding onto it, I doubt a gold “bubble” will burst. He knows something. I can show you tonnes of people who lost fortunes on “research”. Research doesn’t mean sh-it.
Dave,
Ask the moderator Chris W what I do…And yes I have a personal fortune but whats the sense of posting it here…Im 40 now and very liquid…I have and manage my own high 7 figure portfolio as well as many others…I have more owed to me than you would ever hope to make in a lifetime…Point being you are no authority on how to accumulate or manage wealth…Your methods are clearly reckless and from what Ive read it ruined your life.But I’m glad you are atleast happy that you put ALL your chips on the table and lost them all…Thats the trait of a smart disciplined businessman…WTG…Keep the dialogue coming,its laughable at best coming from you…
What’s the sense of posting your personal fortune here? I guess good sense because you probably don’t have a personal fortune. You claim you do. But, there’s nothing you’ve presented so far that would lead me to believe it.
I’m 34 and haven’t lost all my chips. I’ve still got plenty of chips on the table and I came from nothing. And yes, I have seven figures worth of my own chips still, not other peoples…
What’s really laughable is the way you quoted and misinterpreted Soros’ article because a smart businessman wouldn’t do that.
Gold is the ultimate bubble," Soros said at an event in New York sponsored by Reuters. "It is certainly not safe
Dave not to many ways to twist that comment?..Even a simpleton like yourself can see that…
And if Im such a liar why dont both of us forward our bank account,brokerage account and whatever proveable assets we have and any other relevant info to Moderator Chris W and see who is the liar…?..Oh I forgot,you already admitted you are broke from that genius RE maneuver you pulled… :flush
Have better things to do than come onto a forum and pretend to be anything…
You just took the same quote out of context again after I explained what’s wrong with it. I’m not going to respond with the same argument again because it’s clear you can’t comprehend what you just did. For someone who trades commodities to say that AGAIN?! Ridiculous! You need to be spoonfed now?? You are clearly the simpleton. You argue like someone who just stuck a giant pink flamingo on a residential lawn. It’s childish. Why do I even bother??
Dave,
The point of the argument is that Gold is overbought…Simple…We can stop the baby BS and the fact that you have zero authority talking about anything other than losing money and zero discipline…Here are some more articles that I misinterpreted… :rolleyes
And you are basing your research on what?..Maybe if you can find some equity somewhere you can refinance and buy some gold and finish the job off…And for the record Im an option strategist…
No, the point is that your argument is illogical. Yet, you continue to throw in further logical fallacies. It’s basic logic 101. Do you understand logic? Did you ever take it in university or did you drop out of high school? Zero authority? Your own authority you quote disproves your conclusion.
Here’s your argument:
Out of context premise (1) “Gold is the ultimate bubble,” Soros said at an event in New York sponsored by Reuters. “It is certainly not safe.” The implicit premise is that he in an authority on the subject and that’s why you quoted him.
Therefore, your conclusion based on this premise is “I wouldn’t touch gold here with a 100 foot pole…Its run up is unprecedented…”
Your basing your whole argument on an out-of-context premise.
What’s missing is the rest of the article premises like
premise (2) Soros stated “This is a period of great uncertainty so nothing is very safe”
premise (3) Soros is acknowledging that gold is the best-performing asset in his funds.
premise (4) Soros says "Gold is currently the only bull market and added “that it may continue to rise”.
Based on premises 2-4 of the article, your conclusion is non-sequitur–it does not follow. It’s an illogical argument. But, please throw in red herrings and other fallacies to defend it.
Dave
I posted my feeling that gold was overbought weeks before Soros was quoted in that article I posted…And you think Soros is the God of Gold…There are far better traders than him and money managers…He is a corrupt inside trader who skirts the laws and ties cases up for decades…You can twist this any way you like…
Like I said earlier and you can avoid the topic all you want…You have no authority or provide any basis to your misguided points on why Gold is a buy here other than Soros says so, which he didnt…I have made numerous points why it isn’t a buy here backed up with technical analysis, historical data,traders opinions…What have you provided?..Nothing but some far fetched rant about how I don’t understand it all…Dave I sincerely think besides from losing all your capital you have lost any bit of common sense you may have had…And as for my schooling…Any time you would like to compare that I would be obliged…
No, I never said Soros was God. And if there were better traders, why did you so smugly quote him? You were the one who quoted him as an authority and you don’t even have a clue as to what he said. Talk about a “simpleton”. I’ve booted alcholics on welfare out of my buildings who had a better grasp of analytical reasoning and logic than you. And that was decades ago that I worked for min. wage, yet you fail to comprehend anything. I still have my buildings. Maybe you need to get back on the meds.
LOL…Dave you are probably roommates with those alcoholics you speak about…I wouldnt be surprised if you are sauced right now…And I could care less what clapboard palace you own in some rural pos town…It doesn’t surprise me you have welfare tenants because you can’t afford prime real estate…Stick to what you know…Losing money and talking smack about things you clearly have no clue about…And never mind the fact that you still haven’t provided any basis to support your theories other than attacking me…Now you are sour about it…So you take aim at whoever…I can continue slapping u around all night…So keep it coming…
I’ll keep this brief. To call yourself an option strategist and an authority on the subject, yet completely misunderstand a two-page newspaper article you claim to have expertise in proves you’re grossly incompetent and anyone who employs you to handle their money should fire you in an instant after reading this thread. Continue to berate me with your nonsensical BS, but you’ve lost the argument. You truly are a “Rookie” from NYC. I’ve said my peace. I’m not going to waste anymore time responding to you in this thread.
Jim Rogers does the same...He is in commodities...Asia....Australia etc...So for him to say he doesn't believe in diversification is factually inaccurate on his part...
I hear all this exciting talk about stock market investing.
Mark my words…the gov’t voted into office in 2008 still has control.
They have been infusing hundreds of millions of dollars into the stock market shoring it up. The earning you’re seeing today are false earnings. When they chose to stop that infusion the market will once again crash. I suggest you tread lightly. Because you could be busy doing what you do every day and all of a sudden you’ll find out a month or two ago the gov’t secretly stopped or pulled those funds out and you’ll have little or nothing left.