I’m tryin’… How’s the rehab coming along? This heat is nuts. I’d hate to be rehabbing in this heat… I’m actually on vacation in upstate NY…
good…have turned the corner on the worst of it…can slow down the pace now.
where abouts are you in NY?
-Mike
phelmboy? He’s in the Bershires in Western Mass…where I’m originally from.
Keith
I still live in the berkshires but I’m vacationing in Lake George. From an economic standpoint, there’s not nearly as many people as there used to be be. Its been like this for about 2 or 3 yrs. That’s what the hotel owners are saying. I’ve been comin’ up here every year for the past 10 yrs. My kids love it too… I can actually sleep at night wothout all the Harley’s driving up and down the strip… :biggrin
Long to St. Regis Pond is a really nice trek.
Gotta use a kevlar canoe…the hike is atrocious.
-Mike
Ok I see my points are being a bit misunderstood…Can you make money trading…Ofcourse you can but the odds are heavily stacked against you…period…This has been proven by many of my hedge fund friends who retired early thanks to Lehman…Many of these professional quants figured they would go home and day trade their 7 figure accounts in their pajamas…I told 2 of my closest friends that without our pay packages,bonuses,perks etc they didnt stand a chance…They laughed at me…2 years later both of those guys have new jobs that and are making FAR less than they were when they left Lehman…With all due respect phlem and others day trading is a SIZE game…I respect the fact that you are doing your research and Nison is a God in the charting and technical analysis world…I believe I recommended his books to you…Point being tread carefully is all I say…I dont want anyone to lose money…The truth is that most traders in their early stages go broke before they know and understand the rules of the game and how to profit…
There are tactics that the home trader doesnt know…One of them is a reverse trading desk…Read about it and let me know how the home trader stands a chance against that tactic…The answer is you dont…Im not here trying to burst bubbles,all Im trying to do is save some poor newbie from losing all his scratch because he feels ready because he read some book…You want to trade,go ahead…In the end most of you will lose ALL of your money…Im not dream selling here,Im talking from experience and reality…Another saying in the speculating world rings true…Scared money never wins
THAT is the reason I come back to this site over and over…
GREAT POST ROOKIE!!! and Thanks.
In my experience INVESTING…(not trading, TWO totally different things IMHO) I see it like this…
I like to invest the way CHEATERS beat the casinos by COUNTING CARDS…Now let me say first off…I’m not SMART ENOUGH to count cards in a one deck game!!!
BUT…I am smart enough to know when NOT TO PLAY…That’s the ONLY advantage a guy at HOME has…He isn’t LIVING on this money so he can THEORETICALLY wait until the ODDS move in his favor…That’s ALL counting cards is…BEING THERE long enough to allow the ODDS to move into your favor.
AGAIN…I am NOT talking about TRADING here…This isn’t anywhere NEAR as fast as that…These scenarios take YEARS to develope… not minutes, hours, or days…THIS IS NOT TRADING…It’s INVESTING!
And I agree with Rookie because I’ve LOST MONEY trying to TRADE…EXACTLY what he’s warning people about…I’VE DONE THAT!!!
So I stick to INVESTING instead…And I make MONEY!
CASE IN POINT:
GOODYEAR TIRE…
I’ve bought and sold this stock numerous times over the last 6 years.
If anyone has the motivation, they can go back to our stock buy posting days here on REICLUB and read about the last time I purchased GOODYEAR and the profit I made on it…So none of this is Monday morning quarterbacking.
But here’s WHY that INVESTMENT worked…
First…OIL PRICES…Before I purchased GT, OIL was at $145/barrel.
OIL and STEEL are MAJOR components of TIRES…When those prices RISE by 300% tire companies CANNOT pass 300% increases on to their customers…So they EAT IT and lose money…
Steel prices are directly affected by the cost of OIL…STEEL went higher when OIL spiked…
FINALLY…RAW RUBBER
And THIS is where things got INTERESTING…It seems that RAW RUBBER prices over the last 10 years have been at HISTORIC HIGHS (until recently)…Chinas move into INDUSTRY sent prices to the sky…SO, what happened???
The RUBBER Producing Countries of planet Earth EXPANDED to meet demand…and all that NEW CAPACITY hit the market just as the ECONOMY WEAKENED, DEMAND DROPPED, and RAW RUBBER PRICES CRASHED along with OIL and STEEL prices…and to add a cherry on top…The UAW agreed to a LANDMARK cost cutting contract with…GOODYEAR TIRE!!!
The CARD COUNT was now in my FAVOR!!!
The stock eventually shot up 300%.
Goodyear is now back down to about $10/share with ONE interesting NEW addition to the STORY.
Wanna know WHO’s buying GOODYEAR STOCK NOW???
The same guy that’s BUYING Ford stock in bits and pieces very QUIETLY…
GEORGE SOROS
George knows how to play the game and manipulate the media…He’s not doing that here…No BIG news release on these buys, NO COMMENTS that make headlines as George secretly trades the other side of the NEWS he’s just MADE…NONE OF THAT…Just some close observations made of his recorded stock purchases as required by SEC rules.
Goodyear just spent a few HUNDRED MILLION lobbying CONGRESS and that effort was REWARDED with new TARIFF’s on CHINESE MADE TIRES!!!
Gee…I wonder what the CARD COUNT IS NOW for GEORGE???
DO something when there’s something WORTH DOING…Otherwise STAY OUT OF THE CASINO!!!
great points rookie and fdjake…
I have no interest in getting chopped up by the markets:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UWRyj5cHIQA
all kidding aside…
there’s “trading” that can be done with a slant more toward the longer investor timeline.
-Mike
Rookie. First let me say that I didn’t misunderstand you. You tell it like is and I thank you for that. I don’t want to make it seem like I can “trade in pajamas” and be just as successful as a professional trader. I guess my point is simply that I believe I can learn to trade and invest well. Not simply from reading books. But from actually doing it and putting money on the line. I’m not “scared money” because my capital is risk capital. I can lose it all and it won’t affect me one bit. This way, I can focus on what the fundamental and technical picture is saying. I’m not trying to guess where the market or a particular stock is going. I’m learning how to read and react to what the charts and fundamental are saying. I know what you’re saying about how trading is all about size. I realize its a big money game. But I believe that if I can learn to trade to trade well instead of making money, I’ll be on the right path. If I’m trading well, I’m buying at proper support, cutting losses quickly and adhering to risk/reward… That’s easy to learn but hard to practice. The more I learn, the more I respect what you do. Thanks again.
phlemboy,
I wasnt taking aim at you…I respect the fact that you and allagash are putting in the work and understanding the game while you are in the learning curve…My main points are directed to the general forum…Ive seen very talented 3rd generation traders turn to xanax,alcohol,marijuana and a host of other rx drugs from a Dr and most are not to combat the stress of the markets…Ive seen grown men crying on their keyboards after they have lost their life savings…Ive seen alot,Ive been in this game a long time for a young guy…Please dont take my posts the wrong way…I post to help people not to hurt them…My comment about scared money wasnt directed at you,but it was directed at anyone who was thinking about starting this venture with money they cherish…I apologize if you feel I directed any my comments directly at you…I want you to be successful and safe…Trading can be very rewarding when its done with extreme discipline but the problem is about %90 of people do not have extreme discipline…They trade on emotion…Like I said I apologize if you feel anything was directed at you…I feel responsible for any person that gets influenced by my posts in relation to the markets…
My mistake… No need to apologize Rookie. Your posts do carry a lot of weight, but you tell it is. I know I’ve learned a ton just watching you and FDJAKE… Thanx for looking out for us… Its very much appreciated… :beer
as usual…great post rookie.
thanks,
-Mike