Pending home sales up for 5th straight month

Random Ramblings
21

I don’t see how the government pumping borrowed money into the economy creates long-term growth… It creates a circular cycle, like a PONZI scheme… It will have a short-term affect, no doubt, but it did NOT have the effect they were telling us it would…

Think about it, 90%+ of their forecasts have been WRONG on this whole thing… and I am NOT sold that they saved us from a collapse… the “stimulus” has only paid out anywhere from 7-10% of the money, so to buy that argument, it would rely on the TARP money, and the TRILLIONS borrowed and pumped in by the Fed… Unfortunately, the dollar is struggling because of this… the “toxic assets” are STILL on the books, the credit market is STILL pretty much frozen a YEAR later (light easing, but not beneficial to the majority of Americans), the government has BORROWED TRILLIONS and LOST BILLIONS from ineptitude and just being plain WRONG, fraud is popping up all over the place, and this all BEFORE Cap and Tax (trade) and nationalized healthcare AND the impending TAX INCREASE ON EVERYBODY…

From the Wall Street Journal back in February 2009 - "A tax policy that confiscated 100% of the taxable income of everyone in America earning over $500,000 in 2006 would only have given Congress an extra $1.3 trillion in revenue. That’s less than half the 2006 federal budget of $2.7 trillion and looks tiny compared to the more than $4 trillion Congress will spend in fiscal 2010. Even taking every taxable “dime” of everyone earning more than $75,000 in 2006 would have barely yielded enough to cover that $4 trillion."

The spending that has occurred has resulted in PERMANENTLY HIGHER SPENDING to pay it…

The CBO said as much when the Dem’s were trying to pass all this… that it would better if the government did nothing…

I think in retrospect, time will show the government actions made things worse not better…

In fact, if you think about it, this is just one big payday loan… they’ll just keep pushing it off, and we’ll keep paying more and more and more… :banghead

I pray for everyone’s sake, that things will get better, but with all this additional spending and uncertainty hanging over our heads, it’s become difficult to see it…

22
Show me how that COLLAPSES from current BASEMENT pricing levels??

Very simple. Anytime there is excess in one direction (a bubble), there will be excess in the other direction (the bust). House prices won’t just come back to the base line, they should go significantly to the negative side of the graph before finally getting back.

From a fundamental standpoint - we are losing jobs; income is going down; our national debt is going up; taxes ARE going up for EVERYONE (including the Bush tax cuts expiring); and that doesn’t even consider Cap and Trade (which will raise EVERYONE’s energy bills); and socialized healthcare which will also cost taxpayers a bundle. In other words, our standard of living is going DOWN in the future (Obama has said as much) and that’s not good for home prices.

Mike

23

I think we will see an uptick in prices at the end of the year as buyers flood the market trying to take advantage of the 8K. Keep in mind it goes away after November 30th so buyers that have waited and waited are going to go “holy cow if I don’t go out get a house I am going to lose the 8K” which means sellers will most likely have multiple offers allowing them to most likely get close to full asking price if not more. This will artificially push up prices for the last quarter of the year, but then prices will settle again.

24

Christopher,
I agree with you on this except for the increase in price.You being in finance and investing,with knowing the rate of spending the past few months.What/when do you speculate a critical rate change?Just curious.

25

Bama,

I think rates will stay low through the end of the year. As for the uptick in prices my reasoning for this is that all of the fence sitters are going to rush out to buy a house before the credit expires which will create a 45-60 sellers market from mid-october through november 30th. So when the NAR releases their data in the first quarter next year they will declare the housing market back because house prices increased. Although they will drop back down in December and January when rates go up and tax credit has gone by-by.

26

CHristopher,
Thanks,for the insight.I just can’t understand if a tax cut is working,why not keep it going until things REALLY stabilize.I guess if it makes simple sense,then it’s too complicated for govt.