Have you Noticed...

Random Ramblings
21

I have a question for the stock guys on here.

What would you suggest for someone with a small 401K that is getting smaller every month? I only have about 15K in it.

do nothing and watch the money vanish?

Pull it out and take a hit, then invest the 10K into gold for the next few years?

Contribute more money because the stocks are cheaper? (yeah right?!)

I have always thought of my 401K as drinking money for retirement. I don’t plan on staying an airline employee much longer anyways.

Thanks guys!

John

22

I think it’s changing in front of your eyes Roger.

TRUE ENTREPRENEURS will always find ways to make money.
In my opnion NOW is a perfect time to take advantage of the obviously weakening U.S. and Global economies. By using some leverage and some knowledge money can be made.

If NOTHING ELSE…At least LISTEN to what we are trying to teach you guy’s. Watch the options in the QQQQ’s. (June 2009 $16 PUTS) Pay attention to the price movements over the LONG TERM. This market can rally 1000 points in an HOUR. That DOES NOT change the economic reality of this recession/depression. Eventually…EVERYONE will come to realize that the Real Estate BOOM/BUST wasn’t a PART of our economic history…It was an EARLY WARNING SIGN of a NEW economic REALITY.

That reality is…IT’S NOW TIME TO PAY FOR THE PARTY, and pay we will!!!

The only question then becomes…

WHO’S GONNA COLLECT???

I’m doing everything I can to ensure I’M THE ONE COLLECTING…not WATCHING on the sidelines as events unfold that I could see as clear as this page. Missing these events is what you want to avoid. They are OBVIOUS, they are HAPPENING, and they can make you a TON of money. In my experience most people think that it’s too EASY. If it was THIS EASY why isn’t everyone seeing it???

The answer is…most people literally SLEEP WALK through life. Their moving around, their walking and talking, but they MISS chances because they’re afraid of BEING WRONG!!!

When I look at our economy shedding jobs (todays number was 250,000 PLUS lost) it’s as clear as day…This market is a JOKE. The “Pro’s” have gotten HAMMERED, those same professionals are NOW telling people to BUY, BUY, BUY…
It’s the same indicator your seeing here Roger…If you looked at the number of posts here 2 years ago and seen the RECORD NUMBER…took that info, and SOLD EVERTHING YOU OWNED…Today you’d be considered a GENIUS.
The inverse is also true…When EVERYONE is telling you HOW CHEAP STOCKS ARE…

RUN AWAY…or GO SHORT!!!

JOHN…

FORD, FORD, FORD!!!

Your buying a company that is about to be BACK STOPPED by the GOVERMENT. Is the GOVERMENT back stopping the companies you own in your 401K??? NO…they aren’t.

Then why not take every penny of that “drinking money” and simply buy FORD.

Recessions are the single greatest thing ever invented for car companies…No I have not lost my mind…This is what happens in EVERY RECESSION… sales of NEW cars PLUMET…the numbers released yesterday prove this…HONDA down 40%…Ford down 35%…This creates FUTURE DEMAND…You can BANK ON IT!!! People in every single recession in history DO THIS…they hold onto their old clunker because they DO NOT want a CAR LOAN when their JOB may be GONE…
The BEAUIFUL part of this comes a few years later…The consumer see’s his company HIRING, or adding OVERTIME, they regain confidence…the VERY FIRST thing these people by, in EVERY POST RECESSION PERIOD IN HISTORY is…

A NEW CAR!!!

Go to yahoo…look at a chart of FORD going back as far as you can…It should take you back to the 80’s…Are you old enough to remember that recession??? FORD stock price then???

$1.25/share!!!

Move on ahead to the 1990’s

FORD STOCK PRICE 10 years later???

$25/share!!!

Now THAT is what a 401K SHOULD be doing!!!

You asked for it…I GAVE IT to you…It makes NO DIFFERENCE if YOU personally like FORD’S products…I’ve said this here before…Ford DOES NOT have to beat TOYOTA…Alll Ford has to do is BEAT the Ford motor company of 2008-2009…In 2012 if they sell MORE cars than they did during an EPIC RECESSION…Wall St. will throw money at this stock like YOU WILL NOT BELIEVE.

I’ve done this before…Chrysler in 1992…$8/share…on the VERGE of bankruptcy…GOVERMENT steps in and GUARANTEES LOANS for them…In other words…the U.S. BACK STOPPED Chrysler in 1992.

So what happened???.. By 1996

Chrysler stock was $85/share!!! Mutual funds, Pensions, Private equity, Wall St. Pro’s…ALL OF THEM…COULD NOT BUY ENOUGH OF THIS STOCK…

When did the “PRO’S” rate Chrysler as a “BUY”???

When it hit $65/share!!! :banghead :banghead :banghead

23
And again, no offense to anybody here, but Jake, you might need to review the posts of the past, as 2 years ago Mike was NOT on your side of this story.

You’re right! I haven’t been on FDJake’s side for two years, it’s been well over 3 years. Here’s part of one of my posts from August 2005:

In areas where there is a bubble, there could be (will be) a depreciation of house prices that will last for many years.

Of course, the housing market could keep appreciating at double digits forever and then I’d be the fool for not betting on inflation.

As I recall, I was getting attacked regularly for saying that the real estate bubble was going to burst. I seem to remember hearing that things were different this time and that I simply didn’t understand that new reality.

Mike

24

I agree that the constant study of real estate can get a bit dry. I like the random ramblings section.
I was in the local book store the other day. I hadn’t visited in a while. I was surprised to see that the “real estate” section is 10% the size that it was 2 years ago. The ironic thing is that now is a much better time to try to make money in real estate. The easy money is gone, but the money to be made is much less speculative, and the preservation of principal is certain.
We have not seen gross rent multipliers like this in Northern California….ever! The potential to cash flow, right off of the MLS, using the 2% rule looks just like Tennessee or Texas.
I have no idea why. I suppose some folks “don’t want to be a landlord” and “don’t want to fix toilets at 3:00 in the morning.” It could also be that folks are so upside down and ridiculously leveraged, or maybe they are unemployed.
I have been challenged for saying that California is different, but California is quite different.
On the downside, our legislators are holding the entire state hostage because we have two factions of ideologues that refuse to compromise. Democans want to raise taxes, and Republicrats refuse to raise taxes. They both want to spend, spend, spend. After all, it’s popular. Mark my words, government debt is the next bubble, and it will be monetized. Inflation is the only way out.
On the upside, California has agriculture, construction, mining, banking, technology, entertainment, food processing, automotive manufacturing; the list goes on and on.
Further, our population is exploding, and with two “sanctuary cities” (cities which do not deport illegal aliens), and a HUGE demand for illegal workers. Consider agriculture (how many Americans want to work for half of minimum wage or less to pick fruits or vegetables, spray pesticide and fertilizer, and pull weeds?), or construction (once again, how many Americans want to work for $5-10/hour to dig trenches, mow lawns, remove the old roof from a building…ect). Also the industry here is attracting people from other states.
This is a trend which has been going on for some time; our population grows to the tune of around one million people per year. This isn’t happening in most states, but in the Sunbelt, it seems to be.
Now is a great time to be a contrarian investor.

25

When its all said & done, it’s about JOBS!! There are very few good deals in my local market. But there’s also A LOT of people unemployed. Instead of renting an apartment by themselves, people are shacking up together to save money. There are a TON of vacancies. People are either moving out of town or doubling & tripling up in one apt. I’ve decided to step back until our unemployment improves… I’m taking this time to educate myself on the stock market. This is MUCH harder to learn than RE. But I can see where people can make money whether the market is up or down. I’m also noticing that the money I need to get started is much smaller than what would be required in this lending climate. My local banks are requiring 15 - 20% down. The cheapest properties are in the $75k - $90k range. I can start investing (when I learn how to do it correctly) with as little as $500 - $1000. Granted the gains would be small but its all about adjusting investment stategies to be a successful investor, regardless of asset class.