I’ll have no problem sleeping - at least not over my Ford stock. I am SLOWLY buying stock, including Ford and making extra money with covered calls. I’m hoping to get another crack at the SPY for $82 tomorrow, but we’ll see. At any rate, I certainly won’t buy enough stock at these levels to lose any sleep!!!
I agree with your assessment about housing prices and stock prices. I found it humerous on Monday when almost EVERY stock market “expert” was saying the “bottom is in”. When all these morons are saying that, LOOK OUT BELOW!!!
The thing that’s interesting (at least here in my little corner of the world) is that housing prices aren’t falling BECAUSE NO HOUSES ARE SELLING! The housing market is absolutely dead (and buried). I know realtors that are having open houses with no-one showing up. Realtors are telling me that they are getting NO CALLS. IT’S DEAD!
I originally planned on having a total cash outlay for Ford stock of about $150,000 based on exercising 200 Options at $7.50 each. (every option represent 100 shares of underlying stock, so 200 options could be converted into 20,000 shares)
So… I actually PURCHASED 30,000 shares OUTRIGHT last week at $1.90- $1.98each… They cost me under $60K.
I planned on having to spend $180K on those shares at $7.50 each
BUT…I spent -60K
Or…3 times less…or 300% Less!!
Get it…
The pay off won’t be $150K…That would happen if the stock just goes to $6.00. That’s a joke…I’m not playing this for short money…THIS IS A ONCE IN A DECADE OPPORTUNITY!!! I won’t be surprised to see FORD drop into the single digits during this recession…If it does??? I WILL GLADLY BUY MORE!!! I’ll keep you all posted. I must say, I REALLY enjoy the dim wits here who ask me “HOW I LIKE MY FORD OPTIONS NOW?” everytime the market drops. These geniuses, AS ALWAYS, will end up writting me LONG BORING letters about how they NEED HELP “learning the STOCK MARKET from someone who knows it!!!” It’s BEAUTIFUL man, YOU CAN SET YOUR WATCH BY IT!!!
The PAY OFF on this investment…is when Ford trades at what it traded at after the LAST MONSTER recessions of the 70’s and then AGAIN in the 1980’s/ 90’s recession…
$20.00 to $25.00/share
That my friend is $600,000 to $750,000 PLUS!!! (if I don’t add to the postion)
All from a lousy $58K!!!
Obama is 14 points ahead in the polls. He has made it clear he WILL provide loan guarantees for DOMESTIC car companies. As I have said COUNTLESS times here…
YOU PLAY THE HAND YOUR DEALT, NOT THE HAND YOU WANT!!!
Watch…it’s YEARS out…but FORD’S REBIRTH IS coming.
theres alot of great buying opportunities right now and there could be even more later on.
the market did bottom last week friday. this fall is a re-test of that low. i would be willing to bet the farm the market doesnt go below 7900 even intraday this month unless some other global news like a war or something big happens.
tomorrow looks like it might open lower dow futures at the moment are - 57 pts but theres 10 hours before the bell
and now I’m questioning if this is a re-test of the friday low or might actually be the 2nd knife down. looking at charts of the dow from years back and knowing that theirs no confidence in anything right now. the banks actions have done very little to bank lending YET and thats the key word here yet. economy is in the ringer and everything looks gloomy. usually a time to buy but this is an extraordinary event. the vix is @ 70 and has been over 50 for more than a week.
i would be willing to bet the farm the market doesnt go below 7900 even intraday this month unless some other global news like a war or something big happens.
I wouldn’t even be willing to bet the farm that the market stays above 5,000 by the end of the month! The government is broke; the consumer is broke; trillions of dollars of unrealized losses are affecting retirement accounts; banks don’t even trust each other; and the government is absolutely flailing in an attempt to bail out all the institutions that are “too big to fail”. Oh yeah, and we’ll soon have a socialist in the White House. Now that I think about it, 5,000 might be optimistic! LOL!
Futures are holding well for now but I paired out substantially premarket and between yesterdays entries vs todays sells I took a small manageable stop…Thats trading…I wanted a large gap up this am which is typical after a washout day…Didnt get it so I move on…I bet we end up for the day…Yesterdays selling was intense and if we end down a sizeable amount it will trigger margin selling …
If you think for 1 second this is OVER your kidding yourself.
Those futures jumped today on a 16,000 drop in jobless claims and lower inflation numbers. ARE YOU KIDDING ME??? When your in a deflationary recession OF COARSE prices fall. SO DO STOCKS, as we’ve all seen. But, according to the futures, it’s…
WOW, glad that RECESSION is over. WOO HOOO let’s all dive back in!!! :banghead :banghead :banghead
It’s like watching someone chasing a $20 bill on a windy day.
Markets pop for some ridiculous reason historically when bad jobs numbers come out …Dont ask me why,some say its because the fed may act further others have no clue…I still have a small but very volatile position lets see if i can inch this one out…I stand by what I said earlier…I think we have a volatile but up day in the markets…I could be wrong…
Update…Wow what a bailout on that open…URE…UYG and my remaining spoos popped nicely to bail me out with lunch money…Now the market can rally :banghead
I have learned a great deal from your posts. You have given me a lot to think about. At times I sense frustration from you that some of us on this discussion board don’t see some of the things that are so obvious to you.
I believe you have been given a gift. The experiences you have had in life have given you insights to financial aspects that I admire and also envy.
So, be patient with those of us who have a thick head and don’t see things as clearly as you do.
And thanks for contributing to this board. I have leaned a great deal!
DAL especially. merger with nwa will be complete next month or by yr end at latest. they have already slashed capacity and are cutting back some more. they were positioning themselves to make $$$ with oil at 100 range. now that range looks like it maybe 40. currently @ 70
airlines are kicking butt today up 15-20% today. rest of market is on roller coaster.
anyone thinking of getting into cooper tires should do so soon. how long will it take for more people to realize the materials to make them their products are slashed in 1/2 or better ???
ctb is up 1 % almost all day long i wonder why ???
Yea, your right…Sometimes I get a little frustrated. I have NO PROBLEM with anyone asking questions…but I DO have a problem with some dope who a month ago was begging me to explain the stock market to him, now decides to publically break my b@lls.
I put this stuff up here FOR YOU GUYS. It doesn’t make me a SINGLE CENT.
The PROBLEM we have in this country is very simple…
PEOPLE ARE NOT TAUGHT what they actually NEED in order to PROSPER!!!
I came from a family that never invested in ANYTHING, so they HAD nothing. That is a tremendous motivator. It TOUGHENS you, as as result, I have a very low tolerance for NIT WITS!! I can spot a stroker from a mile away ( a stroker is someone who spends their life ASKING questions but DOING nothing)
Then there’s the people who GET IT!!!
ALLAGASH is a perfect example,
This guy asked me questions, sent me PM’s…then BELIEVE IT OR NOT, he actually FOLLOWED the advice…He got up off the computer chair and WENT OUT and DID IT!!! He not only DID IT, he did MORE than I expected. He has learned a TON from people on this site. Cripes, he’s taught ME things!!! I can tell you without DOUBT, he will make a FORTUNE in his lifetime…YOU CAN SEE IT!!!
Those are the people that keep you going. The rest are a distraction.
You were planning to pay $7.50, but the stock went on sale for $2 (with rounding). Suddenly when the stock was discounted by 73%, you seized the buying opportunity. Does not matter how many shares you had planned to purchase nor how many you actually purchased, just look at the share price. 73% off the $7.50 price you were willing to pay gives you a purchase price of about $2.
The price is about 3/4 less, not three times less.
Now if the stock you purchased for $2 goes up to $6, it has tripled. Even though the price is three times what you paid for it, your (unrealized) profit is only 200%. If the price quadruples, your (unrealized) profit will be 300%
Get it …
P.S. 30000 shares at $7.50 would have cost $225K, not $180K.
And how long do you think until they take advantage of the 1/2 prices? Figuring that they hedge their prices using futures, it may take some time. Do you think the extra profits will show in this quarter on the Nov 7 report or next quarter?
As for the market in general, my only complaint that I got shaken out of my SDS position before the 10% jump while I was still sleeping SDS and SSO are a day-trader’s best friend if you know how to read market sentiment due to economic announcements.
What a great day to trade…Caught a huge chunk of that squeeze…QLD & QQQQ ripped…To understand a traders mentality consider I had bought into yesterdays selloff in the last 30 minutes at different buy points…Then unloaded most on the premarket gap,then the rest into the open pop…Watched the blood set into the market and waited for a bounce…Once the bounce was confirmed and it was turning into witching hour for the market I took a sizeable entry for a scalp…A huge share size scalp…It was worth the wait…Today was a gimme in the trading world…Hope anyone who traded made $$$$$$…otherwise stay away from this market…Who knows what tomorrow will bring…Cash is king lower your exposure…
SDS and SSO are a day-trader’s best friend if you know how to read market sentiment due to economic announcements.