But then again, the *REAL* question is how many more rate cuts they can continue? Once they run out of the rate-cut ammunition, then what next?"
Nothing to add on that…
But here’s a good link that shows historical data:
http://www.moneycafe.com/library/fedfunds.htm
-Mike
My best guess:
DOW up 50 on Monday…with Giants win.
-Mike
I think 11,250 is being optimistic.More like 10,750. That’s probably too rosey too…but I see a big blood bath around April.
-Mike
Just revising my guesstimate here…
9500 sometime between now and end of year.
-Mike
2 years ago July 11, 2006 the DJIA was 11,200. Today the DJIA is 11,200. 2 whole years and it is still moving sideways? I still say that nobody gets rich in stocks except stockbrokers. They keep adjusting the companies in the average and they still can’t make it make money. WTF!!
Bluemoon,
Let’s look at a 2 day timeline instead of 2 years:
At 4pm on Thursday Fannie Mae, (FNM), closed at $13.20.
By 9:30am on Friday it was down to $7.16, (a drop of 46% in after/pre market hours).
Anyone who knows anything about the US mortgage system knows that Fannie Mae is akin to the human skeletal system.
The big concern for stock traders was conservatorship.
As with IndyMac, here’s what a company’s website looks like when that happens:
[For future readers of this post, you’ll probably be seeing a much rosier website than what is currently being displayed today, (7/12/08)]
Point is, at the conservatorship level, a company’s stock is pretty much worthless.
At 10:30am on Friday Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson announced their focus was to support the pair, (Fannie and Freddie), “in their current form” without a takeover.
For a trader, that statement was beautiful.
A $10,000 investment at about 10:30am netted 4 grand by the end of the day, ($10.25/$7.25):
In REI terms, that’s 26 SFH monthy cash flows @ $150.00 each, (excluding taxes and fees), in 5.5 hours.
Next week is a different story.
-Mike
Its ok to take shots at the market because of the current situation…Odd thing is the reason for the equity markets being in the crapper is because of RE investors and crooked mortgage brokers…So we all get to share in the pain…I highly doubt the investors on this forum that speak out against the equity markets are obtaining mortgages as freely as they once were…So to bash one and not be realistic about the other is typical of these forums…Alot of BS and little truth…24 months from now when the Nasdaq is 4000 and the bank stocks have bounced %50 from their lows these same lying saps will post how they bought now…The only way to make money in RE or equity markets is to buy at the BLOODIEST times…You have to buy em when they hate em…
I’m fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful…Warren Buffet…
Since this thread is entitled DJIA Predictions, here’s mine: DOW 7,700! I think that’s where we’re headed and I still think that a DEPRESSION is on the horizon.
Mike
Since this thread is entitled DJIA Predictions, here's mine: DOW 7,700! I think that's where we're headed and I still think that a DEPRESSION is on the horizon.
Highly likely Mike.
You’re probably more in line with the way things are setting in.
I’ll stick with the 9500…trying to be an optimist here.
-Mike
This is the reason I don’t predict negative market moves after the fact…When the QQQQ’s hit $41 I was screaming buy…When the dollar was crashing to an all time low I was screaming buy( US stocks soared on Friday as the dollar saw its biggest one-day jump against the euro in eight years) http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8cc0b4e0-6574-11dd-a352-0000779fd18c.html …I posted to buy UUP or the options related…Had anyone bought the options (which I was against for new traders because of risk) you would’ve been up size…The US Dollar is still a screaming buy and has much more room to rally…It’s only just started
…The financials IMHO should be getting paired into,not full scale…You may have to add at lower levels again…The homebuilders the same…REITS the same…
I also add a few k shares of GE to my holdings recently…
Point being of my posts is not to pat myself on the back…It’s to show you have to buy into the blood or stay the heck out of the equity markets…Buy em when they hate em…
And the Nasdaq (QQQQ or QLD if you have large cojones) is a screaming longterm buy…
of course we’ll probably see some type of short term ralley later today or tomorrow morning…but I’m revising downward again…>8500.
Mike…your 7700 is getting closer and closer.
Three that worked well this morning: DXD; SDS; QID
-Mike
LOL…This is overdone…Sheer panic is setting into the world…I’m scaling into this market if we continue to sell into the close for an exhaustion bounce…This is nothing more than a deadcat bounce that I’m looking for…Inexperienced people stay out of this market please…This is a fast market and any capital should be high risk status…
Prediction…???..I guess I will stand corrected and agree with Mike on this one…But who knows…
Geez, could anybody have hoped for better buy opportunities? I’ve been scrambling looking around to find more cash. Oh wait! I know where it’ll come from. The economic bailout!! smirk
Anyways, I’ve gone so far as to start gathering up misc junk in my house to eBay to get money. Anything to get cash to start buying! Overall, we’re still not as low as the 2000 tech bust - 9/11 terrorist-on-the-door-steps years. Getting real close, though! Historically, this is nothing more than a typical cycle. This is pushing google, bidu, GE, TM, yum, KO, PEP, MCD, and a slew of other everyday names into my buy range. Granted, one can never predict the tops/bottoms, but if you are truly confident in the company, the general strategy is to keep buying all the way down, into the bottom, and then ease off when it starts to head back up.
So, my prediction, I don’t think we’ll fall below 9000. However, 8 is one of my favorite numbers, so how about 8888 or 8000.
Dean
So, my prediction, I don't think we'll fall below 9000.
Do you mean this week?
LOL...This is overdone...Sheer panic is setting into the world..
I don’t think we’re anywhere near capitulation, in the stock market or real estate or the economy. Down 369 on moderate volume isn’t very impressive in my opinion. Did we already have the deadcat bounce (from down 800 to down 369? I think that’s very possible. Some nitwit on CNBC says we hit the bottom again today. Of course, I’ve heard that during every down day for the past 6 months. We had a HUGE upswing of the pendulum during the past 5 years and we are due for a HUGE downswing. I think that it’s significant that we closed below 10,000 on the DOW. In a normal market, that would have offered at least some moderate psychological support?
Mike
Mike
We still have a ways to go before we outdo the Nikkei plummet:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikkei_225
An effective continual drop of darn near, it not more than, 50% over nearly 10 years. :shocked and now its starting to stabilize. And the U.S. is complaing. :crying2 :crying Phfft!
I’m hearing DOW 5000 as a way-station to something lower.
-Mike
There is significant support at 7,700. Even though it didn’t get quite that low, that is essentially what it bounced off of this morning. People have long memories (including me) and they remember the low of the dot-com era crash.
Mike
There is significant support at 7,700. Even though it didn't get quite that low, that is essentially what it bounced off of this morning. People have long memories (including me) and they remember the low of the dot-com era crash.
Getting closer and closer to testing that 7700 figure.
-Mike
we already tested it once today. maybe a 2nd time, i think they will rally at the close.
intraday right…but to close below it…That’s a sure sign of further capitulating.
-Mike