13 Riskiest housing markets

General Real Estate Investing
41

Some goods went up, some went up not so much, and some are holding steady. I believe Apparel actually went down a tad. Overall, the CPI is higher, but not drastically.

The CPI is roughly 2.5% higher this year. Without Energy, up 7.3%, the CPI would be 2%.

Energy, Medical, and Transportation had the largest increases at 7.3, 4.2. and 3.7 respectively.

This reminds me of a story one of my business professors in college told me.

A guy sets up a lemonade stand on the side of a road and is making great profits. Some days he charges more than others. Life is good and his business is growing. One day he watches the news and they tell him the country is in a recession. This frightens him. The next day he closes down his business.

It might seem like a simple story, but there is a lot in there if you look.

42

My personal thought is if you are worried about a Bubble and prices crashing

LEAVE YOUR MONEY IN YOUR SAVINGS ACCOUNT WORK YOUR JOB AND MAKE 2% INTREST IF YOU ARE LUCKY AND STAY OUT OF REAL ESTATE THIS IS FOR RISK TAKERS AND IF THATS NOT YOU SIT ON THE PORCH AND WATCH US RUN!

I have looked at assisted living centers and I want to finish my life somewhere really nice not in a government owned with four beds per room smelling the people next to me 24 hours a day just begging someone to pull the plug and let me go!

So I will take my chances of a bubble!

I have had more people ask sense 9/11 how I made it in Real Estate because they lost so much $$$$ in the stock market and/or 401k

Asking me Robb where do you find the deals

how are you doing 30 deals a month!

I could take someone that is dead broke and in 1 year have them a cash flow of 10k per month It does not matter sellers market buyers market! Good credit bad credit NO CREDIT
18-80 it just does not matter!

Like someone said last night somewhere in here

THE SKY IS FALLING THE SKY IS FALLING THE SKY IS FALLING!!

            O.k. chicken Little enjoy corperate America enjoy your social security
                    if its still there for you!!!!best of luck to you!!!!

but yet even a better one to read

THE BOY THAT CRIED WOLF

I can here it now BUBBLE BUBBLE BUBBLE and no bubble came!!!

AND YOU DIED DEAD BROKE!

GO TO THE STORE BUY A JAR OF BUBBLES AND BLOW EVERYONE OF THEM AND TELL ME WHICH ONE SCARED YOU! EVERY BUBBLE I HAVE SEEN IS SMALLER THEN A GOLF BALL! AND THEY POP REALLY QUICK SO WHAT YOUR MARKET WENT DOWN 4% LAST YEAR WHAT ARE YOU DOING TO ADJUST TO YOUR MARKET ARE YOU STILL DOING WHAT YOU DID? I HOPE NOT! SO WHAT INTREST RATES ARE GOING TO GO UP AM I GOING TO KEEP GETTING 100% LOANS? WELL NO!!

WHAT AM I GOING TO DO? I AM GOING TO ADJUST TO MY MARKET AND DO CREATIVE MARKETING TO ADJUST WITH ME!!!

I AM GOING TO READ A GREAT BOOK OR TWO ABOUT CREATIVE MARKETING TO MAKE THE PHONE RING!

THE LAST THING I AM GOING TO DO IS PULL OUT AND SIT ON THE PORCH AND WAIT FOR SOCIAL SECURITY! WAIT FOR MY 1K PER MONTH

I guess what I am saying is I am more affraid of getting old broke then I am of a bubble!

P.S. GO BIG OR GO HOME!!!

WOW I WROTE A LONG POST!!! DID ANYONE READ ALL OF THAT? LOL

43

No, I did not read your whole post. You CAP abuser :smiley:

Many regard Warren Buffet as the king of stocks. Well, one of his more recent hunches has cost him 1 billion in losses. Did he pack it up? Nope. Still going.

Yes, you could put it in a “safe” investment like a money market or CD. You will earn about 3% annually (sometimes less, or perhaps a pinch more). Inflation will eat up 3% of your money annually and you will be no where year after year. Brilliant.

I think the bubble that exists is not prices, rather appreciation rates. I don’t expect homes to come crashing down in prime areas. I DO expect the rate at which they appreciate to normalize. Appreciation rates of 7-12% annually are NORMAL in many prime areas in the country. They were this way before spike-age and they will be this way after it has left.

Fear is what keeps a lot of people working their jobs, which keeps America running. We can’t all be self-employed and successful. Someone’s got to pick up the check. I will never understand why people in their 20’s and 30’s try to play it so safe. Barring an unfortunate event, you have plenty of time to live and correct mistakes. You would think events like Enron and outsourcing would wake everyone up.

The most successful people you will find in this world are the ones who can adjust well. You can’t do just one thing, one way, and expect it to carry you to eternity in style. The world is always changing and so must you.

44

REO, your last post was great. I am not going to allow fear of bubbles, or anything else stop me. As I sit here, soon to begin investing, one thing has stayed in my mind, and is the main thing that is going to drive me to succeed…I am not at all scared to lose anything in real estate investing (btw, I have very little to lose). There is one thing I am scared of…I am scared to keep living like I have for the majority of my adult life. My last 6 jobs have ended as follows…1 due to a bad injury, 1 due to illness, 1 due to a layoff of 80% of the company, 2 businesses closed the doors without notice, and the other one, my boss was an idiot and I quit. (5 of 6, no control whatsoever). And all of this since 1997. Yeah, that’s a lot to lose.

Now, for me to be more afraid of losing the very little I have is stupid. The alternatives…staying as I am right now, sure doesn’t sound very smart. I will never let so-called bubbles or economic factors tell me I can’t make money. Investors can make money irregardless of the economy, maybe it’s harder, or different, maybe you have to change some things, but it sure beats the alternatives, at least for me. The economic sky has fallen on me for years, I don’t see how it can get worse.

Sorry to get off the main topic. Detroit has always been dependant on the automotive industry. There have been some really bad times, but the housing market has never…for lack of a better word, “crashed”. Frankly, if the economy here hasn’t crashed it by now, I am not too concerned. Yes, it might be a little touchy, but the bubble isn’t going to burst. There will be ways to make money here. I and others here just have to learn the right and wrong ways to invest here, thats all. Onward and upward.

45

THOUGHT FROM MONEYTALKS GREAT THOUGHT!

Bubble busting:
This is more important, if you collect bubbles

46

BoboTheKing,

Whenever I get worried that I might be playing it too safe, I think of this quote from
Steve Jobs, co-founder and CEO of Apple Computer, regarding his bout with cancer:

“Remembering you are going to die is the best way to
avoid the fear that you have something to loose.” ~ Steve Jobs

We come into this world with nothing, and we take nothing out of it when we leave.
But while we are here, let’s make the most of it!

Old people that I have talked with rarely look back and regret the things they tried to do, but failed.
But many of them regret not even trying!

I don’t want to end up in a rocking chair on a porch when I’m in my eighties
wishing that I had not been too scared to go for my dreams.

47

VALGOLAS

You have hit it on the head.

Folks, let that be the box that all of your other education is stored in.

We all only have a certain amount of time.

What we do in the first 40 years dictates the quality of the rest and then it’s over.

More people would do better if maturity, ambition, honesty and self esteem were not optional.

48

I think most people play it safe thinking one day they will hit the lotto or some rich relative (that they don’t have) will die and leave them money. Jobs are more insecure today than ever.

So, people work their job, hit retirement and wonder how come they are trying to get hired at McDonalds at age 70.

I think my Social Security payment will be $130 or something when I am older. Factoring in minute inflation until that point means I will receive about $45 in today’s dollars. Sure hope housing costs don’t go up :smiley:

It is sad when someone finally wakes up and they are in their late 40’s or higher. You can’t take wild swings at that age (unless you have a very high paying job). You are kind of caught in the middle. You know something needs to change, you want to work towards it, but you don’t have much to work with and time keeps on chugging along.

So many act like tomorrow is guaranteed. If this is you, go out and buy a sticker. Put on it “Skake me til you wake me” and slap it one. Put it all over the house.

If you are not sick in bed, get out there and get it done. Got time, but no money? Get a part-time job and use that cash for investments. Get a paper route even. Some pay $500-$1000+ a month. If you were not born rich already, life won’t be handing out any favors to you. You must go out and through blood, sweat and tears, make the life you want.

49

If you are not sick in bed, get out there and get it done. Got time, but no money? Get a part-time job and use that cash for investments. Get a paper route even. Some pay $500-$1000+ a month. If you were not born rich already, life won’t be handing out any favors to you. You must go out and through blood, sweat and tears, make the life you want.
Good POST EVERGREEN…
Ya know, sometimes you get all comfortable and things are good, so you don’t look for more.
The Mrs and I were doing just fine; not wealthy mind you, but making a good wage, living a decent lifestyle and putting a few dollars away for ‘tomorrow’.
Well ,a car wreck laid me up for a good long while and that propelled me into looking into investing. I loved the catering and restaurant biz I’d been in all my life but I won’t be able to stand or walk too well now.
But I was VERY intersted in ireal estate investing and we are now , several months later going to close our first two deals next week, and have 4 more to set closing dates on.
Yes, we were lucky to have had a cushion and yes, we have nice equity in our home, but even with it all, you have to take action for yourself. I know of many of languish and moan about thier fate and go no where.
Had I been hit by a large corp., I’d need never work another day in my life, but the guy that hit me had regualr ‘middle class coverage’
Sure, life threw me a bunch of lemons, but the heck with Lemonade; we’re making MARGARITAS!!
You DO have to work and make it happen, but it can be done.

50

In life you do not get what you deserve,

You get what you negotiate!

For those that are just starting out, I suggest that you get the movie “They live”.

They influence our decisions without us knowing it. They numb our senses without us feeling it. They control our lives without us realizing it. THEY LIVE.

A rugged loner (RODDY PIPER) stumbles upon a terrifying discovery: goulish creatures are masquerading as humans while they lull the public into submission through subliminal advertising messages. Only specially made sunglasses make the deadly truth visible.

These soundclips may help you remember.

http://www.theofficialjohncarpenter.com/data/movies/sounds/tlscwant.wav

http://www.theofficialjohncarpenter.com/data/movies/sounds/tlscform.wav

If you keep moving forward you will obtain a pair of glasses for yourself and you will never see the world the same again.

51

Hey,

 "It is sad when someone finally wakes up and the are in thier late 40's OR HIGHER (emphasis mine). You can't take wild swings at that age..."  -- Evergreen

 From an old man who has awakened: Better awake at OR HIGHER than asleep! We can take wild swings - just not so many as we tire easily and sometimes they hurt! I wish I could remember the days when I thought 40 was old. Us old guys can still dream and gasp! still perform though with reduced vigor. Don't count us out.

Peace,
Richard

52

Hey, Richard;

It’s better to be in the game at any age, than not be in the game at all.

And you don’t have to take the wild swings - just get those steady, consistent base hits.

“Live Long and Prosper, Dude”
~ A little Bart Simpson and a little Mr. Spock

53

I think we are in a bubble situation. I know lots of investors who think we are in a bubble situation. I will continue to invest. They will continue to invest. The point of investing is to BUY RIGHT. I buy properties under 70% of market value. If/when (depending on your point of view) the bubble bursts, or simply deflated for that matter, I don’t think I will have much to worry about. At least not as much as the guys going out and buying properties at market value, because “the market can only go up”, commonly referred to as speculators. I personally believe there are only a few markets that will be hit extremely hard by the bursting bubble, and yes they are all on that list. My 2 cents, take it for what its worth.

54

’ The point of investing is to BUY RIGHT. I buy properties under 70% of market value. ’

Good morning, Alaska!
The old adage, ‘buy low, sell high’, is never more true than today.
There ARE always oppurtunities, for sure.
gotta go our and 'get ‘em!’

55

The more things change, the more they stay the same.

You have to ask yourself, what makes the housing market risky? Why these 13?

I saw a report that said Seattle was the number one place likely to see a crash because it is overvalued. Why? Because some snob on the east coast said so? So a 4th floor 500 sq ft walk up for 800k in Manhattan is reasonable, but 350k or so for a nice home in a nice area is not?

RE tends to be slower moving, unlike stocks. You won’t wake up and see half your money gone. Just have to look for the signs.

56

Boss, Family, Friends and strangers will tell you not to go out on a limb and do something foolish like buy real estate.

The reasons will be numerous.

Should you listen, NO!

I could go on and on about jealousy, not wanting to see someone else do better than them, not wanting someone else prove that they have pis*** their life away and on and on.

My question is: why does the public give people that are published, are on TV or the radio their trust.
Their business is about audience. It is not about truth, honesty or fact.

The more drama the better the ratings.

You know what is right and you know what you want to do. DO IT!

Use common sense and you will not get into something that you can not get out of.

At Home Depot, they sell manure by the bag.

A good example of someone finding a way to profit from a bad situation.

I have said here before, buy the movie “They Live” and the longer that you are in this business, the funnier you will find this movie.

Moneytalks

Reminders:

You see, I take these glasses off, she looks like a regular person… on, formaldehyde face

http://www.theofficialjohncarpenter.com/data/movies/sounds/tlscform.wav

I’ve got one that can see.

http://www.theofficialjohncarpenter.com/data/movies/sounds/tlsccanc.wav

They want benign indifference… but all we really are, is livestock.

http://www.theofficialjohncarpenter.com/data/movies/sounds/tlscwant.wav

57

I agree Moneytalks! 100%

58

Listen to people who are where you want to go.

Period.

59

i actually went to seattle exactly a year ago to look at investments.
i did not like what i saw. only 2 major employeers. no job diversity,
low median salaries, low rents, high house prices and high vacancies.
i stayed away and i’m glad i did.

i’m actually surpized to see LA on the list. in my opinion its less riskier
than other cities in California. I’d take the list with a grain of salt but it definitely provides food for a thought

60

Evergreen,

You really made my day. That really cracked me up. =)