LOS ANGELES, CA. The calstatecompanies Center for Real Estate Studies (CRES) research report has just released their third quarter 2020 issue of “Market Cycles". It gives a forward look at more than 175 income rental markets with “buy, sell or hold” recommendations. This publication gives the real estate investor a two-year head start on where and when to invest in rental income properties.
The current number of markets in the “Sell Phase” is thirty-one, according to Eugene E. Vollucci, President of calstatecompanies. The number of markets in the “Buy Phase” is eleven. Mr. Vollucci states, “This quarter the three top buy recommendations are Chattanooga, TN, Detroit, MI and Worchester, MA. The three top sell recommendations are Modesto, CA, San Antonio, TX and New Haven, CT. The other markets are currently in a hold phase.”
In this edition of our Market Cycles, we find the National vacancy rates in the second quarter 2020 were 5.7 percent for rental housing and 0.9 percent for homeowner housing. The rental vacancy rate of 5.7 percent was 1.1 percentage points lower than the rate in the second quarter 2019 (6.8 percent) and 0.9 percentage point lower than the rate in the first quarter 2020 (6.6 percent). The homeowner vacancy rate of 0.9 percent was 0.4 percentage points lower than the rate in the second quarter 2019 (1.3 percent) and 0.2 percentage points lower than the rate in the first quarter 2020 (1.1 percent).
Unemployment rates were higher in August than a year earlier in 387 of the 389 metropolitan areas and lower in 2 areas, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. A total of 37 areas had jobless rates of less than 5.0 percent and 6 areas had rates of at least 15.0 percent. Nonfarm payroll employment decreased over the year in 254 metropolitan areas and was essentially unchanged in 135 areas. The national unemployment rate in August was 8.5 percent, not seasonally adjusted, up from 3.8 percent a year earlier.
The second quarter 2020 rental vacancy rate was higher outside Metropolitan Statistical Areas (8.2 percent) than the rate in the suburbs (5.3 percent) and the rate in principal cities (5.6 percent). The rental vacancy rate in principal cities was not statistically different from the rate in the suburbs. The rental vacancy rates inside principal cities and in the suburbs were lower than second quarter 2019, while the rate outside MSAs was not statistically different from the second quarter 2019 rates.