The End is Near ...Sell everything and build a cave

[propertymanager]

And why would an investor be living in  NOO property???????

Other than a rich investor living in a very expensive apartment in NYC or something like that, I don't know.  I don't know any investors that live in NOO properties.  Did I mistype something in one of my posts?

[rookieNYC]

During all that time, the deadbeat is living in your house for free and obviously not doing any maintenance.

Yes u did say this ..So Im puzzled..And what about addressing the rest of my post...ty

[propertymanager]

If you sell a house to a person who stops paying, then the deadbeat is living in your house for free while he is being foreclosed upon.  What am I missing here?

[rookieNYC]

Every single one of my deals and my Hard Money Loans are deed in lieu of foreclosure..I took back one property already and it took days ...So Im baffled that your attorneys havent advised you that you dealing with the foreclosure courts is quite the amateur move..There are far more complex ways to structure deals to safeguard yourself from dealing with the masses in the foreclosure courts..And why would an investor be living in  NOO property???????...I also had a seller forge documents and sell the property and the title comapny had to pay me off recently I made %50 premium to what was owed..Process took 3 extra months and the legal fees were minimal..When done correctly there simply is no comparison to the money that can be made doing hard money vs being a landlord..Zero comparison..Hard Money and holding mortgages is by far light years a better business..Issue is most people dont have the funds to do it,and thats why its not commonly heard about..Lets not forget that Im lending at %50 LTV and taking my years worth of interest and points off the top..So essentially Im into my mortgages at %30 LTV with a signed deed in escrow at my attorneys office..

In case you didnt see the last post...And I dont sell to owner occuppied..Only NOO investment properties that get rented out..fwiw you are missing alot..

[propertymanager]

Sorry, I thought you were talking about something I posted.  I didn't realize that you were only selling property to investors.

[rookieNYC]

understood....and I missed the Bill Gross article you posted..Dont tell my boss

[propertymanager]

Does Bill Gross saying it affect your opinion at all?

[rookieNYC]

In short no it doesnt change my mind..To be honest I didnt find the article that bad..Did he flat out call our economy a ponzi scheme..Not exactly..He did make comparisons and suggest that NYC and CA going bankrupt was unthinkable and highly unlikely..And he did say not to bet against the US Govt and that he and many investors should buy what they are buying or piggybacking essentially what I spoke about a week ago here..There is little doubt that the future is a big question mark and keep in mind that Bill Gross manages I think in the area of 100 Billion dollars..With that much capital he has to make very calculated decisons that allow him to stay somewhat liquid if he needs to make a timely exit..Lets look at GS..Where did they make most of their record profits this year???..You guessed right if you say buying toxic assets and or mortgages at pennies on the dollar..They essentially did one better than the LTO loan to own business..Many of the properties they sold in 2007 for record profits they bought back for 20 and 30 cents on the dollar..And why did they do that???..Because they know full well these assets are undervalued now and they captured an enormous arbitrage..Not many hedge funds are playing the LTO business but we have been in this business for 3 years now..So our business model actually profits from this doomsday scenarios because they shake the tree and force weak hands to fold into our laps..Would I bet the farm on the equity markets here..HELL NO...Would I continue buying properties with a LTO business model at 30 cents on the dollar ..ALL blankin day long..I follow who is making money and to see the money that GS has made with this model is staggering..My college roommate took home an unheard of bonus from GS this year because his division made record profits doing LTO deals..Bill Gross has to play by a different tune because his business model is far different than ours and managing that size money has his feet held to the fire more than anyone..The future will tell us how this economy weathers this storm..But in the meantime there is serious wealth being created or changing hands however you want to put it..One deal that sticks out in my head is the property/office industrial park that GS sold in 2007 for $300 mill and recently bought back for $80 mill...What about Stuyvesant town in NYC..The biggest Real Estate deal in history done in 2007 for $5.4 Billion...They say that property is worth $2.5 Billion now..I would bet money that GS waits for that to drop a bit more and buys it...Point being it all depends on what business you are in when you consider how bad or how good things are..I personally love the LTO business model but a guy like Bill Gross depends on the good times to keep rolling to manage his returns..

[propertymanager]

GS can do ANYTHING they want to do because they know that they are 'TOO BIG TO FAIL".  That is a big part of the reason that the economy is doomed to fail.  They can make ANY bets they want and they have absolutely no risk of failing (until the government fails).  GS and the government are for all practical purposes ONE AND THE SAME because they and the other big Wall Street firms no longer must live by capitalist principals.   Bet big and win - GREAT!  Bet big and lose - YOU WIN ANYWAY because the government won't allow you to lose.  ANY OF US COULD BE BILLIONAIRES UNDER THOSE RULES!

If the government would make me the same deal, I'd be a billionaire in a year.  I would give up my 12-16 hour work week, hire a bunch of people and we'd buy every property in sight (not particularly worrying about the price).  We'd rent them all out using property managers and I wouldn't care whether I make a fortune or was in the red by billions.  If I made a fortune - GREAT!  If I was in the red by billions, the FED would buy my toxic assets and loan me BILLIONS at zero interest.  IT'S A PONZI SCHEME as Bill Gross said.  There's no longer anything real in the banking industry/auto industry/Fannie/Freddie, etc, etc, etc.  It's all a scam and the middle class is going to pay the price through its destruction.

[rookieNYC]

mike,
Im not a billionaire nor am I funded by the US govt using tarp funds and I made a killing this year..So I respectfully disagree that you need the govt assistance to make size money..And Bill Gross also said that he recommended partnering up with the govt..I actually recall the comment was underlined in the article also..Had Bill Gross said the US economy was a ponzi *scheme* which he didnt he wouldnt have said to partner up and follow the govt investment trends because they have the biggest wallet...You seem hell bent to twist this article into your own opinion.And you also need to stop going to that idiotic website infowars..Thats the same nutcase who claimed 9/11 was an inside job..LOL...fwiw had a guy like Bill Gross said the US economy was a Ponzi *scheme* it wouldve caused a crash in the bond and equity markets..he did not say this and you need to slowly reread this article...

PIMCO’s view is simple: shake hands with the government; make them your partner by acknowledging that their checkbook represents the largest and most potent source of buying power in 2009 and beyond. Anticipate, then buy what they buy, only do it first: agency-backed mortgages, bank preferred stocks, and senior bank debt; Aaa asset-backed securities such as credit card, student loan, and auto receivables. These have been well-advertised PIMCO strategies over the past 6 months but there are others in clear sight.


[iThere is legitimate concern as to the ultimate destination and outcome of our “bailout nation.” Realistically, quantitative easing, a two-trillion-dollar expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet, and the near certainty of future budget deficits approaching 6-7% of GDP should alert bond investors to once again become vigilant as was the case in the 1980s and 90s. Vigilantes we should be, but that is a battle to be fought in the Treasury market where low yields offer little reward and increasing risk. For now, our Ponzi-style economy and its policy remedies encourage bond investors to mimic Uncle Sam and its global compatriots. Buy what they buy, but get there first. Andrew Mellon would surely have disapproved. Liquidation was his game. Wimpy? Well, he’s gonna have to start paying for those burgers on Monday, even in a bailout nation.

William H. Gross
Managing Director
][/i]

http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Featured+Market+Commentary/IO/2009/IO+Gross+Jan+09+Andrew+Mellon+vs+Bailout+Nation.htm

[phlemboy]

While the banks were bailed out by the govt., the banks are finding that having the govt. in their back pocket, regulating every move is limiting their ability to do "business as usual". That decreases their earnings power. Just look at JPM's latest earnings report. They beat the earnings estimate but sales and future outlook declined. Now the govt. wants to tax the banks that engage in "risky business". With the banks under such a big microscope, I don't see the "good ol' days" that brought down the financial industry coming back anytime soon.

[fdjake]

They SHOULDN'T come back.......EVER!!

Loaning guys in California that literally PUSHED LAWN MOWERS $500,000 when the guy only earned $40K a year was doomed to fail.
But that's what happens when you have a Federal Reserve Chairman like that MORON Greenspan actively ENCOURAGING people to use the "New mortgage products banks are developing"

Here's the bottom line........It's VERY SIMPLE

One camp thnks the USA is DOOMED, FINISHED, BROKE, and headed to RIOTS and REVOLUTION.

The other camp thinks this is the same HYPE sold to the MASSES during the REAL ESTATE BOOM.....Remember the EXPERTS that told people there would NEVER be a Real Estate bust because there were MORE PEOPLE than PROPERTIES?????   Where are these morons now????

My guess is they've all opened GUN SHOPS!!!!  They now spend their days selling AMMO and weapons to the same dopes that purchased 4 PRE-CONSTRUCTION FLORIDA CONDOS over the PHONE (because if they didn't SOMEONE ELSE would grab them)

NO RIOTS.....NO REVOLUTION.....Just a economy that eventually catches up with itself......Right now we have OVER CORRECTED.....The STOCK MARKET has ALREADY figured this out.

NEVER......EVER......Sell This Country Short......NATIONS have tried it and had their @SSES handed to them......The results will be the same for INDIVIDUALS!!!!

[phlemboy]

As long as there is an endless supply of income (tax revenue), the problems will continue to be pushed forward by mortgaging our problems to future taxpayers by printing more money and selling our debt to other countries. As long as these items remain intact, the problem and solution will remain the same.

[propertymanager]

So I respectfully disagree that you need the govt assistance to make size money..And Bill Gross also said that he recommended partnering up with the govt..

I didn't say or imply that anyone needed government assistance to make size money, nor do I believe that.  And, heck yeah, Bill Gross said to partner up with the government!  If you're a big bank, car company, Fannie, Freddie, or anyone else that the government says is too big to fail - you've got a free ride.  Do WHATEVER YOU WANT, including screwing up so much that you trash the entire economy and the government will bail you out.  If you're a big Wall Street bank, they'll make your bad assets to away and give you interest free money.  Better yet, you can take that interest free money and they'll pay you to use it!!!!!!!!!  WHAT A SCAM!  

What it really is is THEFT FROM THE MIDDLE CLASS!   The heads of these banks and many government officials should be in jail, or better yet, hanging from a lamp post in Times Square to send a message to other people who commit these CRIMES.  How many retirements have this scum destroyed?  How many people are off work because of these greedy Wall Street scumbags and their friends in Washington?  It's the crime of the century and instead of these criminals paying the price, the middle class is suffering.

fwiw had a guy like Bill Gross said the US economy was a Ponzi *scheme* it wouldve caused a crash in the bond and equity markets..he did not say this and you need to slowly reread this article...

C'mon, his exact words were "our Ponzi-style economy".  That sounds like the same thing to me.  The translation is that Bill Gross knows that this economy is a ponzi scheme and will end like all other ponzi-schemes!  Furthermore, the article Mike posted said that Gross was selling Treasuries.  I can't blame him!

Where are these morons now????

My guess is they've all opened GUN SHOPS!!!!  They now spend their days selling AMMO and weapons to the same dopes that purchased 4 PRE-CONSTRUCTION FLORIDA CONDOS over the PHONE (because if they didn't SOMEONE ELSE would grab them)

If they did, then their judgment has definitely improved.  To this day, gun shops are packed with customers and ammo/reloading supplies are in very short supply (in fact, often NO SUPPLY).

As long as there is an endless supply of income (tax revenue), the problems will continue to be pushed forward by mortgaging our problems to future taxpayers by printing more money and selling our debt to other countries.

I agree, but there isn't an endless supply of income (tax revenue) and we can no longer sell enough debt to other countries or anyone else to pay the bill.  That's what the article Mike posted was talking about.  With the inability to sell enough treasuries, the government has resorted to printing money and buying it themselves.  It is like a person that is overdrawn on their checking account writing another check to cover it (and to buy a new car to boot)!  Did I mention that it's a SCAM?


 

[phlemboy]

As long as there are taxpayers, there is an income stream. Just like a PONZI scheme needs more  new investors, the govt. needs and will always have the taxpayers. That's how I see it anyway..