The End is Near ...Sell everything and build a cave

[PositiveOutlook]

Fdjake,

I don't think anyone doubts that you can find deals.  That said...


The address you posted...    226 Vermont Ave    Providence  RI 02905    is listed for $60K

Comes up on Zillow, with a value range of $181 - 250K, with an average of Zestimate of $245K

But on other more accurate sites like Eppraisal.com and Cyberhomes...

Eppraisal - low of $96K to high of $130K, with an average of $113K

Cyberhomes - $118K

At Cyberhomes, the COMPS (within the last 3-4 months) all sold in the $50 - $69K range. One of those was on New York Ave that you listed to check out.  You can see them here...

http://www.cyberhomes.com/comparables.aspx?propid=81563449


The reason I am asking this, is I am trying to get a handle on how you are determining value.  Zillow is all over the place, so other than knowing the market, and getting a CMA, what other tools do you utilize?

Thanks...


I like the idea of being the banker, but the only challenge I see is, in this market, when people are just walking away from their houses, I'm wondering how many credit-challenged buyers there are that have 20-30% to put down.  How are you finding these buyers?

[fdjake]

You missed something here....

What I said to JOHN was........I'll never be UPSIDE DOWN in these properties like the BANKERS that loaned someone $300,000 on these houses (in 2005)

They are NO LONGER WORTH $300,000.........That's the POINT of the LINKS....The TAX data is the 2006-07 valuations......Look at what they sell for now!!!

"SO OTHER THAN KNOWING THE MARKET" 

There ISN'T anything else.......YOU KNOW YOUR MARKET or you LOSE YOUR MONEY!!!!

You are 100% correct......The RANGES are ALL OVER THE PLACE.

What ISN'T all over the place is FINANCING!!!!!

I can show you houses in that neighborhood that recently sold for as little as $10,000.......they're SHELLS.....NO HEATING SYSTEMS, NO PLUMBING, NOTHING...

The house I linked IS NOT a property I purchased, or even LOOKED at....It's an EXAMPLE of how WIDE the price ranges are up here.

AS I've said.......SOME PEOPLE.....are RUNNING away from REAL ESTATE at EXACTLY the time they should be BUYING EVERYTHING THEY CAN....The BEAUTY of those WIDE PRICE RANGES is simple.....I can get a price to do what I WANT IT TO.....If I'm BUYING, I use the lower end....If I'm SELLING the HIGHER....

I find my end users the same way I find ALL my houses.......ADVERTISING!!!  EVERYDAY....OVER and OVER and OVER.

Your response is exactly my point......BUYERS looking at these homes see the SAME RANGES you found.....EVEN LOWER....The DIFFERENCE is the CONDITION of the homesand FINANCING OPTIONS!!!!!......SHELLS are dirt cheap because you must be a CASH BUYER, there are NO FINANCING OPTIONS for these properties....Banks won't go NEAR THEM.....AS you move up the CONDITION ladder you move up the PRICE LADDER.  I sit at the very TOP of that ladder because I can FINANCE MY PROPERTIES IN HOUSE and I can IMPROVE the CONDITION......I PICK the BUYER, I SET THE TERMS.......I want someone with CASH but BAD CREDIT........There are people out there that can pull TENS OF THOUSANDS out of retirement accounts or other sources.  They have high incomes but CAN NOT get traditional BANK FINANCING....DIVORCEE"S are a great example...Bad CREDIT because one of them ran up their credit cards prior to leaving....They SPLIT the assets, and someone ends up with a lump of cash but NO CREDIT!!!!  I actively SEEK these people out...Sometimes they seek ME out....Every deal is DIFFERENT, that's why I'll always be involved in this business...It's NEVER the same thing twice.

Another point here........This is MY way of owning residential units LONG TERM.....WITHOUT being a LANDLORD......By financing SOME of my inventory to end users I can make HUGE returns over long periods of time with virtually NO HASSLE.  If they WALK AWAY.....I ACTUALLY MAKE MORE MONEY!!!!  I make MORE because I've ALREADY received their DOWN PAYMENT, INTEREST, and most importantly.....I'M NOT INTO THAT PROPERTY FOR ANYWHERE NEAR WHAT THEY PAID FOR IT!!!!  That house is MINE.....Until it's FULLY PAID OFF!!

The other thing to remember here is this.......I'm not doing 10 of these a month.....It's a OPTION for me if I have a BUYER and a PROPERTY that MATCH UP!!!  There are NOT a lot of these buyers out there.....But they ARE there.....And they DO PURCHASE HOMES THIS WAY.  When you can do it.....YOU DO IT!!!

For guy's like POSITIVE who are just starting out investing, there are OPTIONS for him here too....

MOBILE HOMES!!!!

IMPOSSIBLE TO FINANCE........As a RESULT....You can buy them for LESS than the price of a USED CAR......If you pay CASH for them....THEN offer owner FINANCING you can win BIG TIME!!!!   I did this years ago.....I would BUY a mobile home for $5000 cash........SELL IT to someone with owner financing for $15,000 with a $5000 deposit......They pay me every month on the $10,000.  You set up MUCH shorter pay back intervals on these properties.....But.....You end up making a KILLING with NONE of your MONEY in the property from the day they purchase.....300+++% return with NO CAPITAL OUT LAY (after the buyer's deposit)

The point here is simple....You DO NOT have to put up with TENANT BULLSH*T if you can be CREATIVE and put some CASH TOGETHER....This is why I STILL FLIP HOMES.....It puts consistant 5 and 6 FIGURE  deposits in my bank account.....Those "soldiers" are then put to work on other "projects"  They inturn recruit "NEW SOLDIERS!!!!!"  And on and on!

[Dave T]

While you may not share Mike's opinion of the state of the economy, you do have to appreciate that Mike has achieved financial independence and is content to live off his passive income for the rest of his life.

I don't need the newest and latest gadgets, the biggest house, or the newest car.   I don't need anyone to know how much wealth I have accumulated, and I don't have to keep up with the "Joneses".

I understand where he is coming from.  I have been financially independent since 1998, and have been "retired' ever since.  I don't have to do a deal to put food on the table.  I don't need to have a gazillion $ bank account. 

[fdjake]

The point here is this.....

IF......IF Mike's "Planet of the Apes" scenerio comes true.....and remember.....This guy say's he's STOCK PILING....GUNS, AMMO, CANNED FOOD, an not just AMMO...RELOADING SUPPLIES and EQUIPMENT!!

IF his worst case scenerio comes true that "INCOME" he's living on is GONE!!!!

If THAT'S your prediction of our future.....WHY wouldn't you be BUILDING cash as FAST as YOU COULD and transferring that cash build into GOLD or some other HARD ASSETS...OUTSIDE THE USA?????

WHY dig a FOX HOLE in "OHIO" and Prepare for WAR with your RELOADING SUPPLIES and CANNED FOOD???

Switzerland rode out WWII UNTOUCHED......Why not move SOME hard assets into GOLD and into THAT banking system?? (Since Mike is constantly telling us how screwed OURS is)  Why wouldn't you be BUYING PROPERTY THERE, he could even rent it to someone, and if your family ever needs a DOOMS DAY BUNKER???....It's a plane ride away!!!  Let  me see????  I have a few choices here..... A guy that loves to SNOW BOARD and HIKE can stay in the "MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS" of OHIO during the LOOTING, RIOTING and CARNAGE or.......ride out the "COLLAPSE" in the SWISS ALPS???   Let me think???   Yea....OK....I'll take the ALPS with a secure banking system and a FUNCTIONING ECONOMY.....I hear the SNOW BOARDING and HIKING are DECENT there too!!!   But....then again....with MY PLAN.....Your CHILDREN won't get to experience all the CRIME, the RAPING, and the RIOTING....They'll miss out on all that "LIFE EXPERIENCE."

IT DOESN'T ADD UP......THAT's the POINT.....That's what ROOKIE noticed, that's what I noticed......Why TELL people you're living in a country that is DOOMED, FINISHED, BROKE, SEEN IT'S BEST DAYS, and go around buying GUNS and AMMO but do NOTHING to preserve what you spent a LIFE TIME building?????

If Mike's country wide RIOT/REVOLUTION scenerio comes true,  I seriously DOUBT his RENT checks will continue to come in....It's ridiculus....Come on.....We're gonna have a complete financial COLLAPSE & REVOLUTION but Mike's TENANTS, who are all LOSER/DEAD BEATS, are gonna keep PAYING him???   Or maybe the GOVERMENT that Mike tells us is BROKE and headed for COLLAPSE will make sure his Section 8 checks keep coming....DURING THE REVOLUTION!!!!!

COME ON......WAKE UP...

You're looking at a time when there is opportunity EVERYWHERE.....If you think this country is DOOMED....GREAT....Start SELLING those rentals and put your money where your MOUTH is...SHUT UP.....GET OUT....MOVE....

Transfer your assets....DO SOMETHING....Don't tell me about stock piling guns and ammo and canned goods....It's freakin JOKE!

Here's a guy that tells us he works 12 HOURS A WEEK.....The Country is going to COLLAPSE, and he didn't buy or sell a SINGLE house in 2009 because he's........................ HAPPY!!!!!!

WHY......WHY.......WHY.....doesn't he really PLAN for HIS predicted upcoming TOTAL COLLAPSE of the USA????
Keep your RENTALS..(in case you're WRONG)..... But Flip as many houses as possible in 2009 and PLOW every PENNY into GOLD and a SWISS Bank account!!!!....Buy a small Villa in the Alps....Rent it.....REALLY protect yourself and your FAMILY....Not some BULLSH*T RAMBO idea of PROTECTION...with GUNS, AMMO stock piles and CANNED GOODS.

If I REALLY thougth a total collapse was coming....I'd want to know my family was SAFE....I had PROTECTED my assets..... and I had LIQUID capital and thus.............OPTIONS!!!

Stock piling AMMO and canned goods for what MIKE says is coming is like hoarding CARDBOARD for HURRICANE season.

[allagash]

It's a plane ride away

Brian Regan on that:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G9em-ZCddWk

-Mike

[rookieNYC]

IT DOESN'T ADD UP......THAT's the POINT.....That's what ROOKIE noticed, that's what I noticed......Why TELL people you're living in a country that is DOOMED, FINISHED, BROKE, SEEN IT'S BEST DAYS, and go around buying GUNS and AMMO but do NOTHING to preserve what you spent a LIFE TIME building?????

Absolutely...It made zero sense to me and thats why I started this thread in the first place..What makes Mike feel like his tenants that are deadbeats already will survive a full govermental meltdown..If this country goes broke him and his tenants will go with it..Thats why to anyone with a half a brain his posts make zero sense..He is more exposed than anyone but the kool aid crowd cant see that..Had he gone to an all cash position in 2007 (when real estate fetched a pretty penny) I wouldve thought this guy is serious..I like the guy but he is not thinking correctly when it comes to management of his personal assets..

[allagash]

back to fdjake's babysitting comment....

it's got too many roofs....too many toilets....that'll certainly 'cause one to plateau.

but....it IS generating decent cash.....not great, but decent.


I know Mike....he's greedy....just as we all are....well at least I know I am.


if I were Mike, I'd keep things intact but at the same time diversify into something else that's even more lucrative but with far less headaches.

in fact, he's probably already at it.

-Mike

[fdjake]

Here's my PREDICTION!!!!

READY????

SIT DOWN and LISTEN carefully....

Mike........and the UNITED STATES OF AMERICA........PROSPER!!!!!

NO BUST

NO COLLAPSE

NO RIOTS

NO REVOLUTION

NOT A SINGLE SHOT FIRED BY MIKE in ANGER.....

Mike eventually enters a WEIGHT LOSS CLINIC because he EATS his way through 5 YEARS OF CANNED FOOD SUPPLIES stored in his ammo dump.

After slimming down,  Mike does what ALL SEASONED, WEATHERED, SMART, SUCCESSFUL Real Estate investors do.....

HE UNLOADS EVERY SINGLE ONE of his residential rentals and buys COMMERCIAL PROPERTY......
He does this shortly after buying his FIRST commercial property.....When he discovers that if a COMMERCIAL TENANT doesn't PAY......HE'S GONE......BYE BYE,  NO EVICTION PROCESS....NO SHERIFF's.....The LOCKS are changed, and the sign goes up!  FOR LEASE.

THEN.......and ONLY THEN.....Will we read POSTS from MIKE about what a GREAT COUNTRY HE LIVES IN because at that point he won't be dealing with the SCUM OF THE EARTH on a DAILY BASIS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[propertymanager]

I've got to tell you, I don't know how anyone with an ounce of common sense could think the USA is getting ready for a boom and is going to prosper.  To me, that sounds DELUSIONAL!  Neither of you have answered the questions I asked earlier - BECAUSE YOU DON'T HAVE AN ANSWER!  There IS NOT AN ANSWER! 

Look at what happened just today.  The President says he's going to tax the banks, which he claims are now profitable.  Here's a newsflash - THE BANKS ARE NOT PROFITABLE!  The banks HAVE STOLEN wealth from the middle class via the biggest scam in history.  ANYONE WITH AN OUNCE OF FINANCIAL UNDERSTANDING SHOULD BE ABLE TO UNDERSTAND THAT!  The FED GAVE (are giving) the banks money at zero percent interest and then the government paid them 3% for that same money.  It's a shell game and the taxpayer is holding the bag.  If the government gave me the same deal, I would be a billionaire or trillionaire today.  No risk.  No possibility of failure.  IT'S A SCAM!  By putting a TAX on the banks, that tax is really going to the taxpayer who will ultimately be stuck with fees or higher interest rates on their banking to pay that tax.  IT'S A SCAM!  (If either of you disagree - explain it to us).  Rookie said that he's a capitalist and a conservative - THIS SHOULD MAKE YOU FURIOUS!  This is nothing but socialism - the government is essentially controlling the banking industry and a lot of the rest of the economy.

I'm all for making money.  I'm all for you guys doing whatever you want to make money.  However, how about thinking for one minute about something other than yourselves and think what this socialistic transformation is going to do for your kids and grandkids.  This country has been a great country because we were free and because we were a capitalistic society.  That is RAPIDLY disappearing.  The government will soon control another 1/6 of the economy by taking over the healthcare industry.  They already have the banking industry.  They have a big part of the auto industry.  They want to dictate how much energy you use.  They want to take YOUR money and give it to those that are too lazy to work.  Start thinking about someone other than yourself and be concerned about the future of this country!

Look what else happened today.  The president is going to put a tax on Cadillac insurance plans BUT EXEMPTING THE UNIONS!  So, two people living side by side; working in the same industry; making exactly the same money; with exactly the same insurance will be taxed differently.  For what reason?  CONTROL!  It's pitting one American against another.  That's an outrage and the American people are getting sick of it.  This is NOTHING BUT SOCIALISM and it's about time that we take the country back.  When I say "take the country back", I'm not talking about voting out the dems and voting in the republicans - THEY'RE ALL A BUNCH OF SCUM!  We need a new party and a new country that gets back to the principles that this country was founded upon. 

As for your ignorant suggestion that I might want to get out of the country because it is going to fail - I'm not suprised that you would suggest that and I'm sure that you and Rookie might just do that.  However, I am not leaving this country.  THIS IS MY COUNTRY!  I am staying to be part of the this country when the people finally decide to take this country back.  The socialists can get the hell out!

Finally, I'm not some newbie that believes your nonsense about the self-storage business or holding notes or whatever else you've got going.  I have owned several businesses and I know that EVERY BUSINESS has it's frustrations and that no business is easy.  So, do me a favor, and save that crap for some newbie you're trying to impress!  Yes, the rental business can be ugly and so is every other business.  If owning self-storage or holding notes was easy - EVERYONE WOULD BE DOING IT!

The only good thing about this thread is that it's all documented.  It will be very easy to tell who was right and who was wrong.

[fdjake]

AHHHHH   YES!!!!!!!!

JOHN WAYNE!!!!

"I'm gonna STAY AND FIGHT!!!!!"

For WHO Mike????

All the SCUM BAG POLITICIANS???

Or are you fighting for all the DEAD BEAT LOSER TENANTS you're always telling us about????

Or is it the 50% of Americans that don't work and are on disability that you'll lead the charge for???

Or maybe you can stay and FIGHT for those UNION SLACKERS you hate so much????

SELL IT SOMEWHERE ELSE MAN!!!!

You say ONE THING....Then HOLD OUT YOUR hand for SECTION 8 CHECKS every month.....           

U N B E L I E V A B L E!!

You're gonna ride the GOVERMENT BACKED, SECTION 8 rent check, Bank bail out, Auto company rescue, Health care company backed, GOVERMENT T*T.......Just like you have since you received your first SECTION 8 RENT CHECK!!

BULLSH*T someone else Mike.   PLEASE

I'll let all the PATRIOTS here worry about OBAMA and SOCIALISM.....YOU can continue to collect your SECTION 8 rent checks while working 12 hours a week, SNOW BOARDING, HIKING and Riding your Motorcycle!!!

Looks a little different my MY VIEW MICHAEL..........From MY VIEW....YOU are a SOCIALIST!!!  You DIRECTLY benefit from HUGE Goverment backed programs that "I" pay for......I have NEVER received a section 8 rent check in my life.......EVER.........YOU FEED YOUR FAMILY WITH THEM!!!!!

Go BS some NEW GUY with your PATRIOT stories!

[allagash]

AHHHHH   YES!!!!!!!!

JOHN WAYNE!!!!

"I'm gonna STAY AND FIGHT!!!!!"

I prefer:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hvf8r3cX3vo

-Mike

[rookieNYC]

If owning self-storage or holding notes was easy - EVERYONE WOULD BE DOING IT!

I know you didnt direct this at me Mike but I will take a respectful crack at it anyway..Reason why investors go into RE vs HM or notebuying is we as individuals are brought up thinking real estate is the way to get income and wealth creation..Hard Money lending and Self Storage business takes alot of capital also..And many RE investors lack size capital..I mean 500k-1mill..LIQUID..Its far easier to buy some BS 4-8 family property in rural upstate town with %20 down on a 80k property than fund 300k of Hard Money to some investor at %15...Or spend $2 million on some storage facility (which I dont own)..Hard Money and Note buying isnt for the beginning RE investor and may not even be for the experienced investor..You see I hate being a landlord..I hate everything about it but I have other options and many do not..I'm very thankful and appreciative for that but being a landlord is not for me..I think this website glorifies it to much and doesnt expose the reality of the situation that most likely you wont make passive income..$100 per door per month is peanuts for me..The problem is one decent size problem will jeopardize the entire months worth of cashflow...And you as a landlord know problems are ENDLESS..But I know you didnt direct that comment at me..Oh and I have no plans to leave the USA..Yes I'm as far to the right as you can get..I said it before and I will say it again..But the people voted for BO and he won fair and square...The Americans will have to deal with the ramifications of their actions..If I wanted to b*tch about  the  current administration I would go to political website...                                                            

[propertymanager]

"I'm gonna STAY AND FIGHT!!!!!"

For WHO Mike????

WITH the MILLIONS of Americans who still believe in the principles upon which this country was founded.

You say ONE THING....Then HOLD OUT YOUR hand for SECTION 8 CHECKS every month.....

You're gonna ride the GOVERMENT BACKED, SECTION 8 rent check, Bank bail out, Auto company rescue, Health care company backed, GOVERMENT T*T.......Just like you have since you received your first SECTION 8 RENT CHECK!!

I have confidence that you know better than that, so I won't answer this ridiculous claim once AGAIN!  

[phlemboy]

I think there are too many Americans that RELY on the govt. to fix things for them.  During this last economic crisis, there were people with their hand out waiting for govt. assistance. There were also A LOT of people saying that the GOVT.  should do this or that.. There were rarely solutions suggested that mentioned  how INDIVIDUALS can fix THEIR OWN PROBLEMS. Just surf some of the news channels and you'll see the people's reliance on someone else (be it govt. or greedy rich people) along the media's attempt to feed into that reliance. Govt. officials see this too and they cater their agenda to the public opinion. The bottom line is that the majority of Americans are too busy looking outside of themselves for solutions to their problems, to mount any kind of meaningful fight to change things. That's because they'd have to look in the mirror for their solution... which they're not willing to do.. It's just too painful and difficult when you don't know any other way..

[PositiveOutlook]

RookieNYC and FDJake,

From my understanding, Random Ramblings is the forum for discussing all these issues...  Good thing, too, IMHO, because I can see how it would clog up other forums...

Your posts in this thread seem to place all the emphasis on what you can make.  For the entrepreneur, the risk-taker, the investor, this will always be the case, no matter the economy. It is a mindset... The challenge is, the more people DEPENDENT on the government, the LESS of us there are out there, and the MORE the government will TAKE to support its dependents.  This will ALSO give the government more POWER as these dependent people will have come to RELY on the government...  this will lead to a LESSER life lived, and IMHO, and evil propagation of the government on it's people...

If it got to the point where you were being taxed 80-90% of your income, it would place an impediment to your growth... You would certainly not feel free...  If you buy into all the socialist arguments, then making a killing on a stock, or making more than 100% return on your investment in RE, could EASILY be seen as a "windfall"...

If you bought Ford at $2.50/share, but were only "allowed" to make a 100% return (i.e. - income CAP), and the rest goes to the government to support the ever increasing DEPENDENT class, chances are, your feelings on this might be different.  Same goes for RE...

The government does not make money, it TAKES MONEY...  That money comes from the private sector...



To put this into perspective...

We just had a $1.4TRILLION dollar deficit...  Our largest budget items are Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, Defense budget and INTEREST on the national debt...  Out of those five (5) items, only ONE, defense, is an enumerated power in the Constitution.  The other four (4) are BANKRUPT, and we are getting ready to ADD ANOTHER one that WILL end up BANKRUPT also - healthcare (they don't know how NOT to BANKRUPT these programs)...  it is absolutely mind-boggling...

NONE of these budget items are going DOWN in cost, and the WORST part of this past year BS of "too big to fail", is that when inflation DOES come, the INTEREST on all the money we BORROWED will SKYROCKET, and the national debt will BLOOM... 

We can only cut costs or raise taxes... which do you think the government will do?... EVERYTIME the government raises taxes, they have FAILED the people...  BECAUSE it is the PEOPLE who ultimately pay ALL the taxes...




I don't want my kids to live under a government that is unaccountable, tyrannical and oppressive, making them financial slaves in the process...  THAT is why this is important...  People gave their LIVES and their TREASURE to give us the OPPORTUNITY to do what we do today.  People in every generation have fought to PRESERVE our way of life, but we are being undone from within BECAUSE more people don't stand up, think past themselves, and be heard...

One of the most common laments we hear from the "greatest generation" is that people think only of themselves...


As far as Propertymanager going down the tubes if the economy goes, it seems to me he has set himself up well, as there are only three options for people for housing,...  own, rent, or live with someone else who either owns or rents...