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Author Topic: 4th QTR GDP drops to 6.2%...Only 3.8% to go and it's offically a DEPRESSION  (Read 11143 times)

Offline Rich_in_CT

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I'm buying as soon as the login for my Fidelity account lands in my mailbox regardless of the price.  If it goes down to $1, which I think it will I'm gonna scrape up whatever cash I can, put it into an Etrade account and buy more F with it. ****, even if it's $100 I can get 100 shares.  If I lost $100 my life would not end, if I gained an easy $6-800 in a few years time from $100 investment that would be a nice little bonus.

Offline allagash

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fdjake....

what are your feelings about the outlook for GM and Chrysler....their survivability?

that said....what about the suppliers that service the Big 3...their survivability and how this disruption in the supply chain would/could affect Ford.

Personally...I have no desire to be "married" to a stock like this.

Some excellent opportunities are out there.....low hanging fruit.

Take a look at this list:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_S%26P_500_companies

With the major indexes now having lost 50% of previous highs....it's a prime time to start using the “sort” function on your Excel spreadsheet.

I'll take a list like this....copy it into Excel....and just keep the symbol and company name columns...I'll then add columns for Average Daily Volume and Current Stock Price.

Then comes the fun part....sorting low to high based on stock price.

C will be near the top....just like F will......both being stocks in the couple dollar range.

But further study will reveal that C's intradays show violent swings....while F is dead wood.

Comparatively speaking...F don't mean nothing right now.  But these, on the otherhand....are the oxygen for the economy:

http://www.analyzeindices.com/ind/banks.htm

Significant trades in this area, (with the right training and tools), can be had.

I don't consider this playing....to me it's called income.

The dead wood, (F), will probably pan out....and very nicely at that. 

But serious money is out there.....right now.

-Mike
btw....C a zombie?....yes, of course....but if that zombie that holds pooled residential mortgages...credit card debt.....commercial mortgages.....goes.  So do we.  Pretty sick system...as you say...play the hand you're dealt.

Offline Rich_in_CT

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If anything is to die I think GM or Chrysler would certainly go before Ford does.  That being said I don't think this country will allow any to go under.  I'd certainly not want to have money in Citibank right now, if anything is to go under that is far more likely than Ford is I would think.  While I don't think they gov't will let that one drop as well I think it's more likely.

I think the vendors will get beat worse than the automakers are.  The one with the best prices will get the contracts, the rest will fall away with no gov't agency to help them.  The ones that live will suffer severe layoffs and have a tough time weathering the storm.  These little parts suppliers just don't have the cash reserves that Ford does to ride it out so it will be a bumpy ride. 

Offline fdjake

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Ford stock has been declining during the 800 point drop on the DOW. 

Mike

Ford stock 5 days ago............$1.67
Dow Jones 5 days ago...........7413

Ford stock Fridays close......... $2.00
Dow Jones Friday....................7062

According to my math Ford has actualy moved UP as the dow lost almost 400 points.

Most of the bad news is IN the price of Fords stock.  The original move UP in Ford (January) was tied to the circus in Washington.  I couldn't have been happier to see Ford pass on the goverment bailout money.

Check out www.autoblog.com for the story on the new Ford Crossover that will be built in Kentucky.  They have a nice piece from a local news station on the car.  It's a winner!!!  Here's a pic....

http://www.carwale.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2008/04/11.jpg

Here's a road test review......This vehicle has been in Europe since 2008.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Vhc8_czaSc&NR=1

The KEY to this investment is Ford's European car portfolio.  The plan is to bring the Fords being sold in Europe to the United States over the next 1-3 years.  So.......If we KNOW what's coming here...Why not look at what the automotive press is saying about these cars???

The new 2012 Ford Fusion is based on this car.....Here's another review.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mfE-e3ibFxE&feature=Playlist&p=09E8D28362158967&playnext=1&index=15

How about the 2010 Ford Focus????   Want to see what's coming??  Want to see what the Europeans think of this car???

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dTY3NS1ardE

This is the BEAUTY of this investment....We have an ENGINEER running Ford now (Alan Mulally) ...He looked at Fords $1,000,000,000 profit  (Yep, that's right $1 billion PROFIT in Europe 2008) and asked a simple question...

WHY IN GODS NAME AREN'T WE BUILDING AND SELLING THESE CARS IN THE U.S.????????

Seems there was a pissing contest at Ford in the 1990's.  Instead of developing cars people actually WANTED, Ford USA built crap...Ford Europe however built GREAT cars, cars people actually CHOSE over Toyota and Honda.....When Mulally got to Ford he gave the BOOT to Ford USA's then President and promoted Ford Europes President to GLOBAL PRODUCT President.

That in a nut shell, is why AMERICANS are about to see a side of FORD they NEVER KNEW EXISTED!!!!!

The show starts in 2010-2011

Stay tuned.....
« Last Edit: March 02, 2009, 07:40:19 am by fdjake »

Offline christopher w

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I know this has nothing to do with your discussion per se, but I can offer some insight into the mind of the customer.

Two weeks ago my wife and I had to turn in our lease vehicle. A 2006 Jeep Commander limited. We tried to work with Chrysler Financial to keep it as we know it was a nice loaded out vehicle that we had taken great care of. However they would not negotiate the term, the interest rate, or the extended warranty.  So we went out and started pricing new vehicles. To our suprise we found a fantastic deal on a Ford expedition EL that had many after market upgrades that the dealer had made for a customer that ended up not qualifying. Before we pulled the trigger on the deal we went to the Chevy dealership up the road to see what they had to offer. They treated us very poorly. They would not negotiate the price (who pays sticker price for a car?), they were stingy with the incentives, and downright rude in general. BTW their showroom was empty of customers. So before we pulled the trigger on the Ford deal we spoke to a couple more local Ford dealerships but no one could match the deal for the car we were looking at. So to make a long story short we headed back to Ford, and bought the Expedition EL. we got a fantastic financing rate. Not 0%, but very close to it, and we financed it over a long period of time. If they want to give me their money almost for free I will be happy to take it for as long as I can. We got a great warranty, and they bent over backwards to get us the deal we wanted.

Chrsyler and GM could not have cared less about us. I don't know whether the bail-out money is making them feel invincible or what, but the Ford people knew they had real customers ready to buy and they ran with it. I feel confidant that Ford will be the Auto Manufacturer that survives these economic times.
Christopher W
C-214.923.5781

Offline Rich_in_CT

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That's what is wrong with America.  Major recession/depression, nearly no one can get financed, those that can are simply waiting it out anyway just in case........and STILL sh**ty service trying to buy something.  I swear, some of these sales people act as if they don't work on commission or something.  Hello STUPID, no one is gonna buy a car......if someone IS gonna buy a car you need to KISS THEIR BACKSIDE!

Offline justin0419

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OK.  Now to tie this into REI.  A few weeks ago we closed on a 3/2 from a guy who owns numerous properties in town.  This one and a couple other properties of his had been on the market for well over a year.  We offered a low number and he immediately came down to close to our price (well down from his asking price).  At closing, we asked him if he'd be interested in owner financing - at least long enough to weather the economic storm and we could re-fi w/ a bank later.  With no hesitation, he answered yes.  So after that we went and looked at his other two houses on the market and decided to put an offer in on one of them.  We had shopped some banks and was able to find a bank to still do a NOO loan for us.  We figured this would give us better bargaining position on the price rather than doing the owner financing.  We started a couple thousand higher on this one as it was a little better house than the one we just got from him.  Our first offer was rejected w/ no counter.  The day we placed our offer, the owner (who has all these properties listed w/ an agent) called our Realtor directly and told him that we'd "better hurry up and put in an offer because Obama is fixing to raise the capital gains tax and that's gonna make the price go up."  We raised our offer to what we were willing to pay and still have cash flow.  His response was that he was holding firm on his asking price on his house that had been on this house for well over a year because he thought he could get it.
So in an environment of almost no buyers and very slim lending options, he thinks the house is magically going to sell for his asking price and probably more if the capital gains tax goes up...
When he should be thankful for even getting a qualified offer, he's trying to play hardball like it's a seller's market...  Stupid.
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Offline propertymanager

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Today is a good example of what I was talking about in regard to Ford stock (stocks near bankruptcy).  GM's auditor said that they may not have enough money to be 'a going concern', which is causing them to trade down.  Ford will be trading down in sympathy (on the news).  If you were putting $3,000 into Ford stock at $2.00/share a couple of days ago, then you could buy 1,500 shares.  Currently, you could buy 1,800 shares with the stock trading at $1.65.  I have my order in at $1.25, which would allow me to buy 2,400 shares with the same $3,000!

Mike
www.1MinuteToRentalPropertyRichs.com 
This No-Hype, No-Nonsense Book is a step by step course in making money and building wealth with rental properties!  Everything from buying properties at a discount to dealing with terrible tenants.  Now In Paperback!

Offline allagash

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Quote
I don't consider this playing....to me it's called income.

more steep income this morning:

http://www.google.com/finance?q=skf

-Mike

Offline allagash

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more steep income...

Quote
this morning

scratch that....

Quote
today

http://www.google.com/finance?q=skf

-Mike

 




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