Post Your Stock and Option Trades Here!

[Liquidity]

sold out of lehmq wamuq and f today got out in very good shape especially on ford (2.86  ) it dropped huge an hour after i sold it.

had terrible luck on day trades. i didnt make any. I missed them all. FNM this morning put an order in at .91 it touched but i never got any shares then goes straight to 1.20 +. looking back on it i shoulda have just clicked market it was .92 long enough for me to have filled my order.
GM i noticed it dipped into low 4's seen it at about 4.50'4-4.60 didnt pull the trigger woulda made some decent money. F went to 2 i seen it at high 2.30's still woulda been a good trade. man i swear i have missed sooooo many trades the last few days.

my darn broker doesnt allow shorting DRYS or any of the dry bulkers. they are in terrible shape for the next few months, until china uses up its iron ore and then needs to buy more. at some point I will be buying/ holding drys i hope it gets hammered down.


All in all it was a good day for me. got some  cash off the table and at very good prices. no homeruns today only bunts lol

[propertymanager]

Just sold my Ford stock at $3.49 per share (couldn't get a covered call with the premium I wanted so I decided to sell the stock).  My reason for selling is that a one year chart shows that there should be significant resistance at about $4.00 per share.  Furthermore, the bailout should be announced in the next hour or two and the old rule is "buy on the rumor, sell on the news".  I'm concerned that once the bailout is announced, that the stock will sell off because there will be no more good news for a while!  If I'm wrong, I could be giving away some upside, but I'm satisfied with the trade.

As you will recall, I bought the stock in November for $2.10 per share.  I made a total of 48 cents per share selling a November $3 covered call.  Then, today I sold at $3.49 per share, so I made another $1.39 per share.  So, in the past month, I have made a pre-tax and pre-commission profit of $1.87 on a $2.10 investment.  Not bad!  Now, if my ACI (arch coal will just come back up (I'm about even on that trade).

Mike

[propertymanager]

I sold the January 09, $17.50 covered call on my ACI (Arch Coal) today for $2.00.  I was working on my rentals, so I wasn't home, but I had put in an order this morning.  I bought the stock last month for $16.85 and originally sold the November $17.50 covered call for $2.25.  I later bought it back for $.05 (as I recall).  The stock went all the way down to about $11 (ouch).  Over the last few days, the stock has been coming back up and today reached $16.99, which allowed me to sell that Jan $17.50 covered call for $2.  Therefore, so far, I've made $4.25 in premiums on my ACI stock.  Just renting it out!

Mike

[j1dias]

propertymanager - I like you more when you talk about your rental business... :O)

Good luck with your stock trades!

[propertymanager]

propertymanager - I like you more when you talk about your rental business... :O)

There hasn't been a lot of excitement lately in my rental business - WHICH IS GOOD!  I haven't had an eviction in 4 months (it seems like an eternity) and haven't had a "tenant from hell" in a long time. 

I try to answer as many questions on the forums as I can, but you and Phlemboy beat me to the punch a lot of the time and I think you guys have this information down as well as I do.  About all I could add in most cases is "DITTO"!

I just trade the stocks for fun during the boring winter months!  Snowboarding will be starting soon, so maybe that will occupy some of my idle time. 

Mike

[phlemboy]

Mike, the fact that you think Jdias and I have the information down is nice to hear. Thank you. It was your advice and book that has taught me most of what I know now. It LITERALLY has saved me thousands of dollars. I thought I knew enough to start investing, but I would have lost my shirt on just about every deal I was ready to jump on. All those that sold came back on the market within 6 months. Thanx again.

[propertymanager]

Sold short IAG at $5.10 for a trade.   The stock is bumping it's head on a nearly year long declining trendline; it's banging it's head on the 200 day moving average; it's overbought; and it has a direction that tends to reverse every 5-7 trading days.  I'm planning to buy it back at $4.10.

Mike

 

[fdjake]

Topped off my June 09 QQQQ $16 PUTS to an even 1000 contracts at .40

[propertymanager]

FDJake,

I've got to tell you that I'm somewhat puzzled by your strategy on the June 09 QQQ $16 puts.  The market will need to drop another 50% to put you in the money and will need to drop significantly just to make the options worth more than $.40.  Moreover, YOU are 40% of the market in this option with only about 2,500 contracts of open interest.

If you are counting on the market dropping like a stone (which I think is certainly reasonable), then why not wait until the automakers are REALLY crushed and buy Ford stock at a significant discount to it's current level.

So, I guess I'm asking what your exit strategy is on the QQQQ Puts?  The clock is ticking and that time premium is grinding lower.  Are you looking for a quick double?  Are you thinking that the QQQQ will actually go below $16?  What are you thinking here?

Mike

[fdjake]

This is one of THE BIGGEST mis-conceptions regarding options.  The Q's DO NOT have to hit that Strike price for me to make a PILE of money.

One of THE BEST things you can do as an investor is keep a WRITTEN account of OPTION Prices.  I do this religously.  Here's how the June $16's have traded for the last 2 months.

Oct 20         .40      QQQQ @ $33.20
Oct 27       1.10      QQQQ @ $28.69
Nov 4          .38      QQQQ @ $33.95
Nov 20      1.12      QQQQ @ $25.56

The 1.12 high for the $16's was put in on Nov 20th....The Q's traded to a low that day of $25.56.........They closed Friday at $29.56   a $4.00 difference and NO WHERE near the $33 highs seen just a few weeks ago.


We ARE going to retest those lows in the market.....The FEDS actions last week tipped their hand to anyone REALLY watching.  They KNOW something is coming.....They fired that ZERO interest rate blast last week and they are DONE.  NEVER.......let me repeat this.....NEVER in HISTORY has interest rate cuts EVER stopped a BEAR MARKET.  You can find charts for every bear market in history with overlaid interest rate cuts and IT HAS NEVER WORKED.....This time won't be any different.

All I need to happen in this market is a BREAK below the previous $25.56 low on those Q's.  (Hell, that's only $4)  We break below that $25 low and you'll see those Q PUTS EXPLODE, you'll also see the open interest BOOM. Guess WHO will be SELLING into that BOOM????

Mike..... GUESS what I'll be BUYING with those PROFITS as the market hits NEW LOWS and I unload those options?????

It's a FOUR LETTER word that begins with  F.  The BEAUTY of this strategy is FORD will ALSO be taking a BEATING at this EXACT time!!!!!!

My guess is we will get this break within the next 2 months.  That will leave me with a LONG 3 to 4 months before expiration (FOREVER in the world of OPTIONS TRADING)   I'll add to my long term postions in Ford and Goodyear Tire with the proceeds.

I guess my question to YOU is......

With all your negative TALK about where this stock market is heading......

WHERE'S THE WALK???????

Michael........At some point owning 100,000 shares of Ford, purchased during PANIC SELLING  and with some profits taken from a falling stock market, becomes a very real possibility.
At that point...... FORD has to climb to only $10/share and Ole JED's a MILLIONAIRE!!!!!

IT AIN'T ROCKET SCIENCE FOLKS......They WANT you to believe it IS....But it AIN'T!!!!!!!!!

[propertymanager]

This is one of THE BIGGEST mis-conceptions regarding options.  The Q's DO NOT have to hit that Strike price for me to make a PILE of money.

FDJake,

I fully understand how options work.  I've been trading them for over 10 years.  That's why I asked if you were looking for a quick double (as in the QQQQ dropping to about $25) or whether you were looking for something bigger.  In other words, I was and am asking if you have a target profit in mind.  Do you think the QQQQ's are going to 16 or will you sell well before that?  I'm just interested in your thought process.

As for Ford, I appreciate your tenacity in supporting the Ford play.  My plan is to trade in and out of the stock.  In my experience, stocks near bankruptcy are driven by news and rumor.  That's exactly what we've seen so far.  In my opinion, the next big move in Ford stock will be lower since the news is now out on Bush's bailout.  There isn't going to be any more good news for a while, so it should fall under its own weight.

At that point...... FORD has to climb to only $10/share and Ole JED's a MILLIONAIRE!!!!!

If the goal is to make $10 per share on Ford, I'm already well on the way with profits so far of $1.87 per share (that I posted in real time as I made the trades).  Four or five more rounds of news driven moves should certainly be possible in the next few months.  I could make that $10 without Ford stock ever going above $4. 

With all your negative TALK about where this stock market is heading......

WHERE'S THE WALK???????

I am trading the market both up and down and posting all my trades here.   I don't trade as big an account as you do and I've never traded more than low six figures.  The vast majority of my money is in rental property, which is where it is going to stay.  I have a lot more control with my real estate than I have with the stock market.  I like a sure thing, both in real estate and in the stock market.  That's why I buy rentals at a huge discount and why I like to sell covered calls on my stock.  I like my money NOW.

Mike

[fdjake]

It's GREAT to hear you made a $1.87/share Mike....What we DON'T KNOW is HOW MANY SHARES YOU HAD??????   YOU NEVER POST THIS INFO...

From this day forward I will view ANY of these trades posted WITHOUT THE NUMBERS OF SHARES or CONTRACTS purchased as NON EXSISTANT!!!!

To answer your original question.....

I see the market breaking to new lows soon.  I don't pick price targets.
(Mentioning Ford going to $10 isn't a price target, it's just a point in a theory)

What I will do will depend on what the MARKET gives us....

You play the hand your dealt, not the one you want.

I play a completely different game than you do.  I DON'T PLAY unless I feel there is something REALLY worth doing.  When I see that....I have no problem commiting fairly large amounts of capital to a particular investment.   I can not understand how people watch Cramer on CNBC....If I went on this board every night and recommended half the stocks on the NASDAQ and Thursday, and the other half on Friday....WHAT AM I BRINGING TO THE TABLE?????

In my experience THE LESS YOU PLAY...... The MORE IT PAYS!!!

Do NOTHING, unless there's SOMETHING to do!!!

[jfpen]

I'm a novice investor and plan to buy and hold. I'm reading one of David Dremans books that fdjake recommended and am taking the online classes at www.cboe.com that propertymanager mentioned. I'm taking baby steps.
So far:

08/04/2008     300 F @ 4.71

11/12/2008   2000 F @ 1.92

[Wheres My Money]

Topped off my June 09 QQQQ $16 PUTS to an even 1000 contracts at .40

One of THE BEST things you can do as an investor is keep a WRITTEN account of OPTION Prices.  I do this religously.  Here's how the June $16's have traded for the last 2 months.

Oct 20         .40      QQQQ @ $33.20
Oct 27       1.10      QQQQ @ $28.69
Nov 4          .38      QQQQ @ $33.95
Nov 20      1.12      QQQQ @ $25.56

The 1.12 high for the $16's was put in on Nov 20th....The Q's traded to a low that day of $25.56.........They closed Friday at $29.56   a $4.00 difference and NO WHERE near the $33 highs seen just a few weeks ago.

All I need to happen in this market is a BREAK below the previous $25.56 low on those Q's.  (Hell, that's only $4)  We break below that $25 low and you'll see those Q PUTS EXPLODE, you'll also see the open interest BOOM. Guess WHO will be SELLING into that BOOM????

IT AIN'T ROCKET SCIENCE FOLKS......They WANT you to believe it IS....But it AIN'T!!!!!!!!!

fdjake,

I'm also new to stock investing.  So, what you are saying is if/when the price of QQQQ goes below $25.56, the price of the June 09 $16 puts will skyrocket!!!  Let's assume this does happen and the price goes from 0.40 cents to $2.00.  Are you telling me that you can sell your option contracts for $2.00 and make 5 times your investment.  IS IT THAT EASY?   

Of course, someone has to be willing to buy the contracts.  But, if it is this easy, why isn't everyone doing it?  What if the market goes down and option trading is suspended like it was before?  Please tell me I'm missing something. 

I understand that in order to invest this way, you have to observe the current events from an unbiased viewpoint i.e. no CNBC, MSNBC, FOXNEWS, PBS, cartoon network, etc....    I think I should get a degree in Psychology.  As you probably know, most people are like sheep, just following each other to no end.  The trick is to find out who they are following and why.  Then, while they are grazing, position yourself to PROSPER.


Jerry

[fdjake]

Option trading was NEVER suspended.  Naked shorting of financials was limited for a certain period.  This is know acknowledged as a mistake.  Just to make clear...BUYING PUTS (options) was NEVER suspended.

As to your other questions....

Your 100% right about watching CNBC, reading the Wall St. Journal, it's so much STATIC that you can't hear what's REALLY going on.

Here's my take on where we're headed and WHY I think this trade will be a money maker.

Look at the UNEMPLOYMENT DATA.....THAT is THE ONLY story worth talking about.  It was up AGAIN today!!! 
Without a JOB it is very hard to buy a home, buy a car, buy electronics, or buy ANYTHING that stimulates the economy!!!

This down turn is going to be EXACTLY AS BAD as the HOUSING CRASH.  Everyone acknowledges that HOUSING caused this, is STILL causing this, and....Here's the important part.....

HOUSING IS STILL IN FREE FALL!!!!

What's NOT to see here????

To aswer your other question....Yes....if those June $16's go to $2.00 I'll hit the sell button....At that point finding BUYERS for them won;t be a problem because THE HERD will be buying EVERYONE THEY CAN GET THEIR HANDS ON.  Right now there's about 2500 contracts of open interest in those options....(The $15 Junes have almost 3 TIMES as much!!  Someone's BUYING BIG)  Watch what happens to the open interest when/if this market breaks to new lows!!!!  The open interest will ROCKET HIGHER as demand for ANY type of PUT will increase.

The question here is this.......

Do we get the break in this market and when????  My money says we get the break within the next month or 2.  Stock markets decline or rise based on investors perceptions of the ECONOMY.   Our economy is DIEING.   

If you thought 2008 was bad????

YOU AIN'T SEEN NOTHING YET.

California is the 7th LARGEST ECONOMY in the WORLD.  Let me clarify this.....If California was looked at as a COUNTRY an not a state....It would be the 7th LARGEST economic engine on the PLANET!!!
California has 2 months worth of operating cash left.  They are facing BACKRUPTCY.   The worse part is 17 other STATES are in the exact same position.  The State of OHIO recently admitted that it has RUN OUT of MONEY to pay UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS!!!!
WHEN....not IF....These States start cuting JOBS the unemployment rate in this country will BLOW PAST every estimate out there.
These aren;t $8/hr jobs we're talking about.....These STATE JOBS come with wages people can actually LIVE ON.  They pay BENEFITS that will VANISH when these jobs are gone.  In the long run (and I mean L O N G ) it's probably good for our country.  But for the next 3 to 4 years it's going to be like NOTHING we have ever seen before.  (I'm assuming there's not a lot of 85 year olds on this site)

We'll see......In my experience....These events can create HUGE opportunities....BUT...you have to be willing to go against the common thinking.  The common thinking right now on Wall Street is....Stocks are cheap because we've come down SO FAR....

My thinking is.......Stocks are NOT cheap IF WE'RE HEADING TO DOW 5000!!!!!!