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Author Topic: DOW DROPS 500 POINTS!  (Read 99618 times)

Offline fadi

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Re: Be careful what you wish for
« Reply #30 on: September 19, 2008, 09:56:18 pm »
noted and reply removed :)
« Last Edit: September 20, 2008, 09:26:50 am by fadi »
Location: San Antonio, TX
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Offline fdjake

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Re: DOW DROPS 500 POINTS!
« Reply #31 on: September 20, 2008, 07:22:22 am »
John in NC,

Let's recap and you guy's can tell me if you REALLY need to be clairvoyant to make money investing in stocks.....
We'll even use FORD as an example because YOU could actually BUY this stock NOW...BEFORE the minions see what is in front of their faces.  So here's YOUR chance to be clairvoyant!!!

1)Big car company (Ford) BLOWS IT by not paying attention to their MARKET.

2)Gas prices hit NEVER BEFORE seen levels and people STOP buying SUV's.
   BUT.......What has happened to those gas prices???  Seems CHINA isn't
   the REAL reason oil went up so high.  It was ACTUALLY......SPECULATION.
   As witnessed by the DOZENS of hedge funds BLOWING up weekly because of LONG postions they put on in the OIL MARKETS!!  Either way, Ford gets hit AGAIN.

3)So the Economy REALLY DOES WEAKEN as the greatest Real Estate BUBBLE in History DEFLATES (who DIDN'T see this coming?)  Remember the joyous days of yesterday when economists told us we wouldn't even have a RECESSION??   OH, the simple days!

4) The Economy REALLY starts to slow now,  car sales virtually STOP, and WALL STREET (and us) finally has to ante up on a long over due BILL.

5) U.S. Car companies are on the brink of going under.  It's an election year so NO POLITICIAN of EITHER party wants the blood of GM or Ford on their hands,  So they do what I've been TELLING YOU they would.  They approve Low cost loans or GUARANTEES just like they did almost 30 years ago for Chrysler.   Again....who DIDN'T see this coming???

6) At some point in the next few years.  People WILL, believe it or not, REALIZE that.....WOW...Houses REALLY GOT CHEAP in the last few years!!!  I think I'll BUY ONE.  That will light off the economy like it has for GENERATIONS!!  People will feel decent again, carpenters and a whole lot of other peole will be working. They'll feel good enough to actually buy cars again!!  I know this is RADICAL THINKING but stay with me.

7) One benefit of this massive global slow down??? OIL PRICES will have fallen to $50 - $70 /barrel.  Remember this is 2 to 3 years out.  By that time $3/gallon gas won't bother ANYONE.  (Remember when $1 gas blew everyones minds?)  People WILL adjust to $3/ gallon gas.  My guess is they might just decide they miss that PICKUP or SUV they sold in 2008 and want ANOTHER ONE!!!  When you have 3 kids....driving around in a Honda Civic after having an EXPLORER, gets OLD REAL FAST!!!  Again...RADICAL THINKING... I know.

8) Ford......having negotiated GROUND BREAKING new contracts in 2007 with the UAW is seeing INCREDIBLE cost savings.  They have brought over their TOP SELLING models from Ford Europe (which in 2007 GAINED 9% market share) and they actually seem to be SELLING.

9)  Out of the Blue.... FORD is BEATING their RECESSION ERA SALES NUMBERS (again.... DUH... it was a RECESSION)  but that won't matter to Wall St. they'll just see the numbers moving UP every quarter and PILE into the stock like bums chasing a $20 bill down the street on a windy day.

10)  And FINALLY...Someone here will write that they WISHED they had my CLAIRVOYANT ability to buy stock! :shocked
   
The question I have for you John, is.....HOW MANY TIMES DO YOU HAVE TO READ THIS STUFF BEFORE YOU PULL THE TRIGGER???? Go back and RE-READ the posts.  ANYONE can tell you about a trade AFTER the news is out.   THAT'S BULLSH*T.  I've told you about trades BEFORE I put them on.  I even went as far as to post PRICES and DATES of entry!!  Can it be made any easier?

I must say.....It fascinates me that you want to hear about times I LOST MONEY!!!  I think that is a HUGE insight into your thinking.  I have laid out trade after trade here.  BEFORE prices went up....but you want to hear about when I lost money?????   I believe you have said that you don't invest in stocks because you don't understand them.  That's very smart.  Believe me...I'm not knocking you John,  I've read many of your posts and I KNOW you're an intelligent guy who is very successful in life.  I just think you may have bought into one of the biggest myths out there.....That you have to be some kind of mystic to make money investing in stocks.  YOU DON'T....Believe me.....What you DO have to be is.....PATIENT.  I WAIT...sometimes for VERY LONG periods of time...without buying a SINGLE SHARE of ANYTHING.   I know the car business.   They don't call it CYCLICAL for nothing.  These stocks CYCLE with the economy.

I've told this story here before....but it bears repeating....In 2005 I owned 5..... 3 family homes and a few single families.  I had stored a motorcycle at one of them in a garage.  One spring day I rolled out  the bike and put a FOR SALE sign in the ground next to it with just a phone number.  After a few hours it started to rain.  I pulled the bike back inside but got a phone call and forgot the sign which now was in front of the house.  THAT DAY......Let me repeat this......THAT DAY....I received 38 phone calls on the "HOUSE FOR SALE"  at that point I decided we were in a NON-SUSTAINABLE Real Estate BUBBLE.  I sold EVERY SINGLE residential property (except mine) that I owned.  It took exactly 2 weeks to sell 8 properties.  That was NOT NORMAL...  This BEATING Ford has taken is EXACTLY the opposite side of the same theory.  "You get OUT when everyone ELSE is getting IN..... and get IN when they're getting OUT!!"

As far as losing my @SS.   The KEY to successful trading is PULLING THE PLUG when a trade goes against you.  I have lost money on numerous ocassions (and in EVERY case it happened when I didn't follow my own methods.  As you do this more and more, you just LEARN not to deviate)  But....I  NEVER even came CLOSE to losing my @ss as you say.
I don't have anything to prove in the markets or here.  If you enter these trades with the attitude that a trade represents YOU being RIGHT or WRONG.......YOUR SCREWED!!!  I may enter a position in a certain stock on NUMEROUS occasions and at various price points until I feel events are lining up in my favor.  Once that happens, and you have a CATALYST (like a GOVERMENT LOAN for $25 BILLION!!) you BACK UP THE TRUCK and LOAD UP.    Once your fully invested, you simply sit back and WAIT for the DOPES on Wall St. to SEE what you already identified.   FORD.. is a TEXT BOOK example of what I'm trying to TEACH you. 

In my experience just about EVERY SINGLE THING I've ever been told or taught about investing is absolute BULLSH*T.   When you see an opportunity that you have waited years to develope (FORD)  you dive in ALL THE WAY.  "Diversification is for people who don't know what they're doing."   That quote is from BILLIONAIRE (and fellow Ford share holder) Kirk Kerkorian. 

IN 2 to 3 years people here will be writing about how they WISHED they  had bought in back in 2008, it NEVER FAILS.  Look at what people wrote 2 years ago when I said we were headed for the biggest financial disaster since the Great Depression.  Remember the comments???   Chicken Little, Sky is Falling, Mr. Doom and Gloom, I had people telling me they HATED my posts because they were so negative....  WELL, WELL, WELL...Here we are....I don't take ANY pleasure in being correct in my sentiments,  what I do take pleasure in is PROFITING FROM THE OBVIOUS!!!!   Now Vader and ChrisW are saying they enjoy reading my posts.  I appreciate their comments, and I respect both of them..but WHAT TOOK SO LONG???   People SEE IT when it's TOO LATE or they don't WANT to see it.

John...... Ford WILL NOT be allowed to fail.  Just like after an UNPRECEDENTED Real Estate BOOM, we are having an UNPRECIDENTED Real Estate BUST.  The part most people FAILED to see was........WHO THE REAL LOSERS WOULD BE!!!  It wasn't the HOME BUYERS....It was the BANKS!!  Did it take mystic GENIUS to see this???  Cripes.....NO ONE actually OWNS their home until the BANK IS PAID OFF!!!  Was it genius to see that if prices FELL, these banks were SCREWED????
I wrote in 2006 that a Major Swiss bank was warning their PRIVATE BANKING CLIENTS (that's RICH people) that the U.S. was heading for a Depression like event due to RAMPANT specualtion in housing and TERRIBLE loan products.  The reponse?????

"Who cares what Swiss bankers think."

At THAT exact moment........I KNEW we were screwed!!  When the MASSES can't SEE the OBVIOUS...I'll take the other side of that bet EVERYTIME!!!!

You can watch, or you can EARN....  EARNING requires [email protected] requires........NOTHING!!

« Last Edit: September 20, 2008, 03:01:22 pm by fdjake »

Offline tatertot

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Re: DOW DROPS 500 POINTS!
« Reply #32 on: September 21, 2008, 09:58:32 am »
500 points seems huge when the press is beating the hysteria drum, but in reality, it is about $5. 

Offline joker

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Re: DOW DROPS 500 POINTS!
« Reply #33 on: September 22, 2008, 08:23:51 am »
lol fdjake, its like you are screaming through my computer.

Offline dr_white

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Re: DOW DROPS 500 POINTS!
« Reply #34 on: September 22, 2008, 02:03:31 pm »
I can hear what you're saying, fdjake. My mouse button finger was sitting here on the BUY, but then I had another thought. Ok, the theory is that once economic hard times are over, people go out and buy cars. I can see that. However, why would they buy Ford? Why not Toyota or Audi or Saturn? Wouldn't it make more sense to buy a car company ETF?

Please respond soon; my mouse BUY finger is really itchy. Haha!  :bobble
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Offline fdjake

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Re: DOW DROPS 500 POINTS!
« Reply #35 on: September 22, 2008, 02:25:52 pm »
Here's what your missing....

IN EUROPE Ford competes with HONDA and TOYOTA just like it does here.  Not only do they compete with them but they do it in a market that pays $8/gallon for gas.  So not only is Ford BEATING Honda and Toyota in a market for small fuel efficient cars, their BEATING them in MARKET SHARE!!  
http://www.theautochannel.com/news/2008/04/15/084235.html

Why would people buy these new European Fords???

For the same reason people in Europe do....they are VASTLY better cars than what we get in America!!

READ THE REVIEWS!!!

The automotive press is already saying these cars DRIVE BETTER than their Japanese competition.  THAT...is why people will buy them.

Do you own a  Honda or Toyota???  I've literally had HUNDREDS of these cars.  THEY ARE APPLIANCES!!  NO ONE....let me repeat this...
NO ONE....is taking the long way home in their CAMRY or ACCORD because they just LOVE driving the car.  The Japanese build GREAT cars, don;t get me wrong, but they are as BORING as hell to drive.
Here's what Europeans get for THEIR Accord and Camry competition..(coming soon to the U.S.!!)
http://autobloggreen.com/2008/06/11/ford-to-shift-u-s-truck-plants-over-to-producing-euro-car-model/
I pretty sure they could move a few of these here!!!

One last point that a LOT of you are missing.....

Ford DOES NOT have to BEAT Honda or TOYOTA to WIN here.

IN this investment FORD has only to beat ITSELF!!  Get it???  If Ford puts up BETTER numbers in 2010 (and they will) Wall Street is going to be comparing those numbers NOT TO TOYOTA, but to FORD'S 2008 & 2009 NUMBERS!!!  See the beauty here???   Wall St. LIVES on year to year comparisions.  When Ford brings these cars over they will generate a TON of press.  Have you noticed the number of Ford Edges on the road??  I see these cars EVERYWHERE.  The new Flex's are popping up too.  Reviews for the Flex have been EXCELLENT!! 

Doc.   Do yourself a HUGE favor...and I'm dead serious here.
Go down to your local car rental agency and RENT yourself a Ford Edge for a few days.  Your thinking about investing REAL MONEY here.  DO THE RENTAL THING!!! There is absolutely NO BETTER way to evaluate a car than driving it for a weekend.  What's it gonna cost you???  $200??  How much is that itchy  finger about to spend???   RENT THE CAR!!!!  THEN DECIDE.

I'll ask only one favor from you......

After you return the EDGE write about it here. 

I did this myself a few months ago.  Not because of the investment, that was already done.  I did it because my family and I were taking a trip and I am thinking about buying an EGDE or MKX (Lincoln's version of the same CUV) for my wife.  Not only did my wife LOVE the car, my 8 year old son did too!!  My wife has driven EVERYTHING, from Mercedes Benz, Lexus, BMW, Honda, Toyota, she is not easily impressed.  It was the little things that she liked.....the way the volume on the radio increases and decreases automatically with vehicle speed, the seats are  EXCELLENT (very comfortable), the driving postion. ect.  When my WIFE wanted one,  I KNEW I had an incredible investment on my hands.
« Last Edit: September 22, 2008, 03:05:34 pm by fdjake »

Offline Liquidity

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Re: DOW DROPS 500 POINTS!
« Reply #36 on: September 22, 2008, 02:58:41 pm »
Todays oil rally is fake. right now is good time to buy stocks related to that. I mean that go up when oil is down. Autmotive, Airlines, Shipping

I loaded up on airlines today after selling my oil and gold plays that worked out beautifully over the weekend.


oil rose the most it has in history today !! was there a war or crisis ??? no it was a technical play to kill the shorts and they are dead !!!!

 the only + for oil rallying is the us dollar will lose some value vs other currencies and oil and gold is traded in us dollars. so if the dollar loses value gold oil goes up === INFLATION. but for this rally to really stick it needs demand theirs still supply the demand is not there. the usa is in recession and it's not denied anymore. if the usa slows down the world economies Really slow down.


If you guys want a safe play that wont make rich overnight but will make you some real interest. buy and hold DUG (oil short)  and SMN (commodities short) those will make you a nice investment and hold them for a year.

stocks i picked up today UAUA, NWA and F also.

the stock market is a bag of lies, learning to play those lies correctly is how you make money. GLA



Offline fdjake

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Re: DOW DROPS 500 POINTS!
« Reply #37 on: September 22, 2008, 03:07:29 pm »
Couldn't agree more!!!

Offline Liquidity

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Re: DOW DROPS 500 POINTS!
« Reply #38 on: September 22, 2008, 03:12:29 pm »
watch oil prices this week. if the go up get ready to buy a stock related to it. this is the whole point buying low selling high. I jumped in right away thinking this rally will lose ground tomorrow and on through the week. It might stick for the week and have me sweating but i'm sticking with what i know.
 
this oil price is not sustainable

Offline propertymanager

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Re: DOW DROPS 500 POINTS!
« Reply #39 on: September 22, 2008, 07:02:48 pm »
Everything that was said here could happen,  but I doubt it.  The subprime problems; the bank failures; the mortgage crisis; etc, etc, etc, are all just symptoms of the real problem.  That real problem is the overspending of both the citizens and the government over the past several decades.  The American people have borrowed until they're on the verge of bankruptcy to buy silly consumer items and to life a style that is clearly beyond their means.  As a government, we have mandated entitlements for every special interest group until we're so far in debt that we'll only be able to pay the INTEREST on the debt in the near future.  Social Security and Medicare are RAPIDLY going broke and now we're bailing out large companies right and left (with money that is backed by absolutely nothing and created out of thin air!

What is happening is like a man trying to roll a snowball up a steep hill.  The snowball is small in the beginning.  However, everytime the man gives the snowball a shove, it gathers snow and grows larger.  Due to social security, medicare, welfare, medicaid, foodstamps, and a bunch of entitlements that were created and have grown over the past few decades, the snowball was already much bigger than the man in 2001.  Then, the dot com crash and 911 occurred and the man had to really strain to move that snowball (by pumping billions into the economy and offering home loans to everyone with a pulse).  Despite all his effort, the snowball didn't go very far uphill and when it got back to the man in 2007, it was giant (due to the housing crash)!  By 2008, it took EVERYTHING the man had to move the snowball.  How much farther up the hill it will go is still unknown, but it will be MASSIVE when it gets back to the man.  At some point, the snowball will roll over the man and crush him (the economy will collapse).

This is NOT just a run of the mill business cycle.  What we are witnessing is the decline of a once-great civilization.  Much like the Roman Empire and many other great civilizations, our excesses have destroyed us.  We've lost the great pioneering spirit and replaced it with a whiney, entitlement mentality in which everyone is a victim that needs a handout.  We were able to delude ourselves into believing that we were on the right track, until out excesses caused our businesses to move offshore and our jobs were outsourced to more competitive nations. 

Now, our baby boomers are beginning to retire and fewer taxpayers will be expected to shoulder the massive debt left by our excesses.  No, this is not a normal business cycle.  The game is over and we lost.  We will soon be facing an economic collapse which will make the great depression look like a minor correction.  It is an absolute certainty, the only question is when.  Is that happening now or will the government be able to give that huge snowball one more push before we're crushed. 

The government has stated the position that they will not allow the market to collapse.  Obviously, by their over-reaction to recent events, they won't even allow the market to go down significantly.  The free market is over and socialism is here (and we all know how socialistic governments end)!

Mike 
www.1MinuteToRentalPropertyRichs.com 
This No-Hype, No-Nonsense Book is a step by step course in making money and building wealth with rental properties!  Everything from buying properties at a discount to dealing with terrible tenants.  Now In Paperback!

Offline Liquidity

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Re: DOW DROPS 500 POINTS!
« Reply #40 on: September 22, 2008, 07:39:09 pm »
mike

We're not gonna be a mad max society anytime soon. i think my airline stock will rise a few dollars before i'm wearing a ripped tire over my shoulder as a jacket &  holding a crossbow.


the future looks rocky for another 12-18 months and then we will evolve our markets. 1 thing about the bailouts. if they didnt do this last bailout we might have been in the early stages of what you mention.
 last wednesday our countries credit system stalled.  banks would not lend to each other.
if the government didnt act quickly the great depression 2 woulda started.

It wasnt because the market went down significantly, it was to stop an economic meltdown you're talking about.
« Last Edit: September 22, 2008, 07:45:51 pm by Liquidity »

Offline dr_white

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Re: DOW DROPS 500 POINTS!
« Reply #41 on: September 23, 2008, 12:44:22 am »
Quote from: Liquidity
We're not gonna be a mad max society anytime soon. i think my airline stock will rise a few dollars before i'm wearing a ripped tire over my shoulder as a jacket &  holding a crossbow.

REIClub MadMax - "I got (real-estate) skills. I can trade those."

Bartertown - "Sorry, the brothel's full!"

HAHAHAHA!  :biggrin  :biggrin  :biggrin  :biggrin

Dude, is there any here that can actually look themselves in the mirror and proclaim that the Road Warrior series is anything other than uber cool??
I thought not!

 :bobble
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Offline phlemboy

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Re: DOW DROPS 500 POINTS!
« Reply #42 on: September 23, 2008, 08:33:32 am »
So where is the govt. getting all this money to fund these entitlements, bailouts etc..? It seems to me they're using foreign debt and tax revenue. That's like a guy who's making $30k/ year, but he has "seemingly" limitless credit extended to him because he has a stable job and good credit. The govt.'s stable income is the tax revenues. Their "creditwothiness" is directly related to the confidence level that other countries have in the U.S  taxpayer/consumers. It appears we keep adding debt to pay the debt. As long as we can borrow, we can stay afloat. THAT'S when evrything collapses. Just the guys who eventually realizes that his $30k income won't pay the huge debt he created, or his stable income becomes unstable or is reduced; he files bankruptcy and its game over.
"Fat drunk and stupid is no way to go through life son." --Dean Wermer

Offline propertymanager

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Re: DOW DROPS 500 POINTS!
« Reply #43 on: September 23, 2008, 09:05:54 am »
Quote
It appears we keep adding debt to pay the debt. As long as we can borrow, we can stay afloat. THAT'S when evrything collapses. Just the guys who eventually realizes that his $30k income won't pay the huge debt he created, or his stable income becomes unstable or is reduced; he files bankruptcy and its game over.

Your analogy is correct, but they're not borrowing the money - they're simply "printing it" out of thin air, diluting the value of YOUR money everytime they do it.  That is why runaway inflation is an absolute certainty.  More phoney dollars means the value of every dollar is decreased.

Mike
www.1MinuteToRentalPropertyRichs.com 
This No-Hype, No-Nonsense Book is a step by step course in making money and building wealth with rental properties!  Everything from buying properties at a discount to dealing with terrible tenants.  Now In Paperback!

Offline phlemboy

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Re: DOW DROPS 500 POINTS!
« Reply #44 on: September 23, 2008, 10:25:26 am »
That's a good point Mike. The more money you print, the less its worth.. Especially when it stopped becoming money and became "currency" when Nixon took it off the "Gold Standard". But the amount of debt we owe to other countries adds more "snow to the snowball".
"Fat drunk and stupid is no way to go through life son." --Dean Wermer

 




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