Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!

[fdjake]

NDLM,

You and I have a lot in common.  I made the exact same comments about Rookie that you have.
I'm not knocking you in anyway.  But..........I have to tell you.....Rookie knows of what he speaks!!

He may sound cocky at times but what I'm finally coming to realize is HE HAS TO BE COCKY in the business he's in!  As soon as he starts doubting himself it's GAME OVER.  This is nothing like investing the way you and I do it.  I understand your points completely.  They're good ones.  I can tell you from listening to Rookie for well over a year now that he is right on his predictions with an astonishing rate of reliability.

You can be successful doing the same thing 10 different ways.  I'm sure you are very successful investing your way.  Rookie does it his way and HAS made some very bold preditions here that proved correct.  I'm not talking about big broad economic trend predictions, I'm talking about VERY specific market movement predictions and WHEN they would occur.  I've been investing my own money for over 20 years.  It takes a LOT to impress me. I have to say, I'm impressed with Rookie.

You can LEARN a LOT from this guy, don't make the mistake I made and write him off as just another talking heasd from Wall Street.  Keep track of his posts, they offer a lot of insight.   Believe me.....your posts and my old posts are almost interchangable.  I too believe that 90% of Wall St. "experts" are half a step above used car salesmen (ex- used car dealer here) After a while I came to the conclusion that Rookie is VERY smart, AND.... he's willing to give us his insights into markets!!!!!!!  You can USE that info.
I'm not saying you should stop doing what your doing,  just don't dismiss his insights. 

It all comes done to TOOLS.  Each one does a different job, no single tool does everything.  Having access to as many tools as possible makes doing ANY job easier.  Having access to the members of REI CLUB has certainly helped my investing in real estate, and stocks.

[d_sbrown]

One thing for those new to options to know is that their value drops over time.  If all else is equal, that money that is invested in options disappears as you close with the experation date.

Owning options can be a great way to make a play with limited risk, but make sure you understand how time affects value.  Options are often presented as a sure way to make money, but the vast majority of options expire worthless.

Example of fdjake's purchase as I understand it.


     Option cost    =   $1.20 for a $7.50 option
IF
      price goes to $15.00 and he excersises his option
    Then ...   He buys at $7.50 sells at $15 and makes $7.50 minus $1.20 or $6.30
     If he had owned them outright he would have made the full $7.50.

IF
      Price goes down his option expires worthless and he is out the $1.20 but never more than that.

IF
       Price stay at $7.50  the option expires worthless and the $1.20 is lost.
  
In fact the price must rise more than his $1.20 investment for him to make money by excersizing the contract.

If the market is still down and the option is converted to stock at $7.50 at expiration, then the stock will have a basis of $8.70 regardless of where the price is at at the time.

Correct me if I'm wrong, puts and calls make my head hurt, and I have mostly only used them in commodities.

DB

[fdjake]

You are EXACTLY right.

I look at this as a $25,000 insurance policy on 20,000 shares of Ford stock.

As d_sbrown correctly points out.....by 2010 if Ford stock is not above the $7.50 strike price my $25,000 is gone.  That's the RISK in this strategy.  The stock did close at $7.45 on Friday.

My feeling is that by 2010 Ford, which is still on track for a 2009 return to profitablility, will be higher IF.....and that's where the risk is.....IF....they post profits in 2009.  Wall Street has NO FAITH in Ford what so ever.  If Ford does execute they'll be on EVERY major business magazine, newspaper, and financial news show you can imagine.  This will (and has in the past with CHYRSLER) FURTHER increased the companies turn around as the media BLITZ brings in even MORE buyers to those showrooms to see "THE TURN AROUND CAR COMPANY"

Guy's remember what happens in the MEDIA when a story like this occurs!!  IT'S COVERED LIKE THE HOUSING CRASH.  They'll blow the Ford turn around out of proportion just like they blow EVERYTHING else out!!  But that's GREAT for shareholders. 
The difference is I'LL BE SELLING TO ALL THOSE PEOPLE WATCHING & READING THOSE STORIES.  You MUST be ahead of the HERD to make REAL MONEY investing like this.  I know Rookie's gonna break my b*lls for saying this but it's the truth.......I made this EXACT same investment in Chrysler in 1991.  They had fallen to single digits, they were dead and buried according to the "experts"  The stock went from $9/share to $110/share when Mercedes bought out the then EXTREMELY PROFITABLE Chrysler Corp.  You could have played this EXACT same trade THE FIRST TIME in the early 1980's when Iacocca brought Chrysler back from the dead.  Same story, same incredible return for share holders!!!

This is not rocket science.

Look at the TOP TRADERS on Wall St.   They just published a list of the top 10 last week.  They almost ALL shorted BANKS and HOUSING two or more years ago!!!   That sounds like a NO BRAINER now.  But at that time these guy's must have been looked at like they were OUT OF THEIR MINDS!!!  Those banks and hoome builders were making RECORD profits!!  The HERD was piling into these stocks like this would NEVER end.  Well it ended all right. 

Cripes that nit wit........ JIM CRAMER........on his JANUARY 2007 show BEGGED his audience to buy Goldman Sacs??????  The worlds top traders were already SHORT those banks for over a year when THE HERD JUMPED in.  In early 2007 Goldman was over $235/share!!!  It now trades at $179   NICE CALL JIM!!!!

Now we have FORD........DEAD, DONE, BURIED, OUT OF TOUCH, CAN'T COMPETE.  That's what the HERD SAYS........Here's what the facts say......

Historic, LANDMARK, UAW contract that for the first time allows FORD to hire like HONDA and TOYOTA hire.  No more $60/hr grass cutters at Ford.  Also....FORD just handed a check for $3 billion  to the UAW.  NOW the UNION has to pay for IT'S MEMBERS retirement health care benefits.  Ford no longer contributes!!

Consumer reports refused to give TOYOTA it's favored maker status due to reoccuring QUALITY problems and unpredicted re-calls of TOYOTA PRODUCTS.   WHO received the HIGHEST marks, lowest number of recalls and BEST QUALITY AWARD????????...........FORD!!!

Ford sales in CHINA......THE BIGGEST FUTURE MARKET FOR CARS ON PLANET EARTH increased 47% LAST QUARTER to 87,000 CARS......FOLKS....UP 47% LAST QUARTER!!!!!! Thats 350,000 CARS A YEAR with an expected increase of 20% YEARLY for the market as a whole!!!  When your DOUBLING the annual projected rate of increase and your doing that QUARTERLY........your doing something right!!!!

Ford market share EXPLODED in Europe last year, up 9.9%!!! THAT'S MARKET SHARE, not sales!!   If they eventually get anywhere NEAR those numbers in this country this stock will make a lot of people very wealthy.  Guess where all those great FORD OF EUROPE cars are coming in the next 2 to 3 years?????   RIGHT here to the good ole U.S.A.   GLOBAL PRODUCT PRODUCTION!!!  No more different Focus for USA, different focus for Europe, different for Australia.  This is what FORD was doing until Alan Mullaly got there.  He asked why FORD's sold so well in EUROPE and not here???  Then he went to Engalnd and DROVE the European Focus, and Fusion.  He and was BLOWN AWAY by the differences.  He actually promoted the man responsible for those great selling cars to head Fords GLOBAL PRODUCT DIVISION.  In the next 2 -3 years you we see this stategy play out.   WATCH what Happens!!!!

YOU HAVE TO BE IN BEFORE THE HERD!!!!!!!!

[rookieNYC]

However, I don't bet on the market today at all.  As a matter of fact, I had safely relocated my assets into money market, and others a month ago.

This is a post from NDLM not long ago...So which is it?..Are you owning stocks or in a money market account..Make up the story for the day...

Fwiw every single person who owns stocks,mutual funds of any kind is speculating in some form..I also highly doubt you would ever be fortunate enough to have gained acceptance financially to qualify to invest in a hedge fund..

I take the time to post my *feeling* on the market so others can learn and benefit..I try to post only *useful* things that people can benefit from financially..I won't carry on this pissing contest with you..



fdjake,
  Sounds like you are doing great..Just have patience..That is truly the key..

[fdjake]

Thanks Rookie,  I appreciate your insight.....as always!!

[NDLM]

fdjake

Your points are well taken.  Let's move on. 

Regards!

I also highly doubt you would ever be fortunate enough to have gained acceptance financially to qualify to invest in a hedge fund..

Again, you are speculating without knowing who I am, what I do and how my financial situation looks like.  I guess speculation is what you are good at, so let's just leave it there.

In the United States, for an individual to be considered an accredited investor, they must have a net worth of at least one million US dollars or have made at least $200,000 each year for the last two years ($300,000 with his or her spouse if married) and have the expectation to make the same amount this year. This rule came into effect in 1933 by way of the Securities Act of 1933.
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accredited_investor)

To have a net worth of at least one million US dollars or the income at least $200,000 each year for the last two years ($300,000 with his or her spouse if married) might sound impossible to some people, however there are others don't consider these numbers are hard to achieve at all.

Anyway, let's move on.

Regards!

[BrianA06]

A house, a car, and a few bucks in the bank and you are there.  At least in this area of NJ.

Taxes are a bitch though.  $12k a year and growing.

[kdhastedt]

Blue is bad....Blue is evil!

Keith

[rookieNYC]

NDLM,
 The responses you give show how inexperienced you are when it comes to asset management...An accredited investor can stay at Fidelity,Etrade...The type of asset management field I'm in takes *much more* liquid to be invested...But that's irrelevant,point being is stop tailoring your posts for the current market conditions..I quickly noticed how you side stepped that part of the post with your run on response how you are worth a few bucks..

[BrianA06]

My dad is better than your dad thread now.

Everyone talks big online and they all live in their parent's basement and drive a Chevy.  Pointless to argue like that with text. 

But if you want to meet behind the gym after school . . .

[fdjake]

AGREED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[fdjake]

DETROIT THIS MORNING......

Ford posted a $100 million PROFIT for the first quarter compared to a $282 million LOSS in last years first quarter!!!!
Ford BLOWS past Wall Streets earnings estimates!!!!  Posts a 5 cent/share PROFIT when the Street expected a 16 cent/share LOSS!!!!

The point here is Ford is making these improvements in a TERRIBLE economy for new car sales.  Within 2 years, Fords vehicle line up will be 70% NEW!!  The cars they are coming out with are going to be HUGE winners for Ford simply because they'll be vastly improved when compared with what Ford has been selling in the past!!!

This year alone will see the new Ford Flex, Lincoln MKS, and a Re-designed and improved Fusion coming early next year.

These opportunites come along VERY RARELY.  It's all lining up to propel Ford into a vastly improved profitablility.  Share holders will be handsomely rewarded for their patience!!

The head line say's it all............... IT'S JUST STARTING!!!!!

[4444]

So I am trying to understand something here. Hopefully one of you will chime in. For Fdjake to profit from this 'investment' he will need to have the common stock of ford go to 7.50 plus 1.20 or 8.70 before he profits. Is this correct? So right now the stock price is at 8.38 so he is still negative? I am trying to understand options.

[fdjake]

The options I paid $25,500 for a few weeks ago closed today with a value of $62,000.

Ford stock closed at $8.40 today.  But because NONE OF THE EXPERTS on Wall St. saw this earnings surprise coming, Ford's stock options went NUTS.

The VALUE in this type of investing is not in turning $25K into $62K in a few weeks.  The VALUE comes from being able to BUY those 20,000 shares of Ford stock in January of 2010 when Ford's Turn around is reaping HUGE benefits and ALL of Wall St. is piling in.  Sometime THEN I'll exercise my option to BUY those 20,000 shares of Ford stock at $7.50/share.
By then Ford should be on every national business magazine being touted as the TURN AROUND OF THE CENTURY.  The media will BLOW this completely out of proportion, like they do with everything.  I'll be selling my shares to  the "cattle" that buy their stocks based on what they read in the Wall Street Journal and Money magazine.   

THIS IS HOW REAL WEALTH IS CREATED!!!  It's done by doing the COMPLETE OPPOSITE of what everyone else is doing.  You watch, the Mutual funds and Jim Cramers of the world will be screaming BUY BUY BUY when Ford is at $30/share.  At that point my $25,500 worth of long term Ford options would represent $600,000.   In 1991 Chrysler went from $9/share to $68/share in a 3 year period.  This story has happened OVER and OVER at car companies around the world.

I've been through this before with Chrysler and made a TON of money.  It's a remake of the SAME MOVIE!!

The car business is BEAUTIFUL because YOU KNOW what manufacturors are coming out with YEARS before those cars hit the streets.  I look at power trains, styling, economy, and technology.  A famous automobile turn around specialist once said ....

"There is NOTHING that can fix a broken car company faster than GREAT PRODUCT."   

Chrysler did it twice.....once in the early 80's and again in the early 90's.

Ford was all done in 1982 ($1.50/share), then came out with the Taurus and saw the stock rise by a WHOPPING 2000% in 5 years.

GM's been in this boat before.

Porsche.....the most profitable car company IN THE WORLD was at $20/share (German) in 1991.  That stock went to $300/share 5 years later.

VW.....$14/share (German) in 1993...5 years later...$150/share

Car businesses DO THIS,  it's in their DNA.  Learn from this Ford situation and you guy's could repeat this 3 or 4 times in your life.  It ain't rocket science.

The KEY to this investment is ALAN MULALLY.  Do some research on him, look into what this guy did for BOEING while he was there.  He's using the EXACT same cookbook now at FORD.  There is a TON of information about this guy on the internet.  Check it out before it's too late.

[4444]

Would you consider selling your options now and just buying the common?