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Author Topic: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!  (Read 83227 times)

Offline tatertot

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fdjake, I sincerely hope that you are right and that you make a ton of money.

Offline NDLM

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I've been long on Boeing (since 96), Google (since 2005) and recently added Visa (V) after IPO at $59.00/share (I missed the boat on Master card though) ... to my porfolio.  So far ... I have been rewarded nicely/handsomely with these stocks. 

I don't buy on hype, speculation, prediction or rumor.   I do throughoutly research and I only invest in a company based on its valuation and fact.  I also believe that investing is a long term commitment, not a short term or timing the market.

My2cents!
 
"Learn from the mistakes of others. You can't live long enough to make them all yourself." -- Eleanor Roosevelt

Offline rookieNYC

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I've been long on Boeing (since 96), Google (since 2005) and recently added Visa (V) after IPO at $59.00/share (I missed the boat on Master card though) ... to my porfolio.  So far ... I have been rewarded nicely/handsomely with these stocks. 


Not another person posting what they bought 2 years ago...LOL...These posts are worthless...Put your balls on the chopping block and say what you are buying today or tomorrow...Anyone can say they bought this or that 10 years ago...I don't buy any of it..No offense...

Offline BrianA06

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I am thinking of some Berkshire Hathaway since the prices are down a bit.  What do you think it will do if Warren retires?

Offline fdjake

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First off.......Honda and Toyota are ALREADY great car companies.  They will CONTINUE to be great car companies.  My investment is based on the single idea that in a relatively short period of time (2 - 3 years) Ford, which has THE HIGHEST quality ratings of ANY car maker INCLUDING HONDA AND TOYOTA will JUST DO BETTER THAN THEY HAVE IN THE PAST.  They don't have to BEAT Honda or Toyota they just have to BEAT FORD'S PAST DISMAL HISTORY!!  Like Rookie said.......Contrarian investing (going against the crowd) is the way to invest.  Ford stock WILL RISE because they have a well thought out plan, they are executing that plan, and that plan is working.

I would also like to Publically Thank ROOKIE NYC for opening my eyes to the wonderful world of long term options!!

THANK YOU!!!!! :beer

I bought January 2010 Ford $7.50 calls a few weeks ago (1.20 to 1.35).  Those options represent 20,000 shares of Ford stock.  My plan is to hold the options and actually EXERCISE  them sometime near the January 2010 experation.   For anyone who doesn't understand options, they allow you to buy Ford stock at $7.50 right up until 2010 regardless of Fords price at that point.  So,  instead of spending $140,000 (20,000 shares of Ford stock at $7/share = $140K)    I am able to CONTROL the same 20,000 shares for a FRACTION of that $140,000..............  Just over $25,000 to be exact!!!   I am able to LEAVE $115,000 in my account to use for buying and selling real estate.  If my theory is proven correct.....I can convert those options to shares and either sell the stock or continue to hold it. 

In my experience these opportunites represent TREMENDOUS potential to increase your net worth in a relatively short period of time.  POUNCE ON THEM WHEN YOU CAN!!!

Again THANK YOU ROOKIE!!  I remember arguing with you a few times about stock market investments.  You have FORGOTTEN more about investing in stocks than I will ever know!!!  Thanks for the advice! ( I do listen)

The value this site brings it's users is immeasureable. 

Mine are on the block.....we will ALL see how it turns out.
« Last Edit: April 19, 2008, 11:17:09 am by fdjake »

Offline bdub

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Go, Fireman, Go!!!

I really want this to work out for you.  I wish I had $25k to put into Ford options...  I'm working on it.

Offline phlemboy

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As far as cars go, I've owned 17 domestic cars in my life. Each one broke down WAY too often. My current car is a Honda Accord. Bought it new in 2005. Not a peep out of it. The car before it was a 95' Camry. I bought it with 74k mi. on it and drove it to 150k mi. for 4 yrs. with no issues. Here's my point, a large % of domestic cars are made from foreign ( Japan, China etc..) parts. IMO, the increase in domestic reliability is in large part due to using foreign parts. It's going to take a long time for domestics to truly rival the LONG TERM RELIABILTY of Honda & Toyota overall. Show me that and a better price and perhaps I'd better faith in domestics. What good is a gas miser if you're fixing it frequently? You're just spending your money elsewhere.
    When it comes to college education. Here's my plan ( which is about 15 yrs. away). I'm saying to my kids, " Take out student loans in your name for all college costs. WHEN YOU FINISH, I'll pay off all the college loans. If you don't get a degree,  YOU PAY FOR THEM YOURSELF." I put myself through college. When you're paying your own money you'll do whatever it takes to pass the courses. The kids have nothing to lose and my money is not wasted. They also don't have to worry about working full time when in school.
"Fat drunk and stupid is no way to go through life son." --Dean Wermer

Offline fdjake

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You bring up a VERY GOOD point.  Time and WORD OF MOUTH will tell if Ford has reached the same long term reliability levels as Honda and Toyota.  Ford's quality HAS risen to a level that, according to Consumer Reports "rivals Honda and Toyota."  The problem Ford has is they must convince buyers that they are a viable alternative.

To do this Ford recently hired Jim Farley as marketing President.  It may be of interest to note that Mr. Farley is credited with launching LEXUS as a brand in the USA in 1990.   

What you may not know is when Toyota launched LEXUS the Press said it would NEVER compete with the Luxury German brands such as Mercedes and BMW.   At the time, it was FAR from a given that LEXUS would succeed.  Farley launched what is now considered a "Classic" ad campaign.  Does anyone remember Infinity's ads that ran at the same time???  They had pictures of babbling brooks, moss covered rocks, basically.... WORTHLESS!!!!  LEXUS used it's marketing to SELL IT'S CARS!!!  Not some BS lifestyle.   It high lighted the REASONS people should actually BUY ONE!!!  It was a HUGE success.  After LEXUS,  Farley handled the SCION launch for Toyota.  A 180 degree departure from the premium Lexus brand.  Farley hit that one out of the park too!!!

Farley is now launching Ford's version of that LEXUS/SCION campaign.  It's called "DRIVE ONE"   This is CLASSIC Farley at his best.  Straight forward, DIRECT TO THE BUYER, no BS "lifestyle" ads.  Just a head on REASON TO BUY A FORD campaign.  In the ads Toyota and Honda drivers are given a Ford to use for a week.  They then pass the car on to a friend.  Ford is NOT using actors for this.   During Ford's research for this campaign they discovered that after actually DRIVING Ford's new products, over 80% said they would BUY a FORD.  These cars are VERY impressive.  For the first time in it's HISTORY Ford actually consulted with it's dealer body for advice on how to market these cars.  Farley used this same technique at TOYOTA with great success.

Remember one thing..................NO ONE..........NO ONE.... buys a Camry or Accord for the DRIVING EXPERIENCE!!  These cars are APPLIANCES.  If a car company can rival the reliablity of the Japanese and ADD to the driving experience THAT COMPANY WILL SELL CARS!!!!

Again......Fords competition is............FORD............If they simply DO BETTER than last year?????

The stock goes UP!!!!
« Last Edit: April 19, 2008, 07:26:47 pm by fdjake »

Offline phlemboy

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It would be great if the domestics can reach that long term reliabilty of the foreign cars. But I think it may cost the domestic companies much more than their foregn competitors to do it.
One other thought, in tough economic times, people will probably tend to buy used, gas misers to save money or just fix the cars they have. I don't know how that impacts Ford's stock, but it should interesting to see how it all plays out.
"Fat drunk and stupid is no way to go through life son." --Dean Wermer

Offline BrianA06

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I agree.  I cant see an increase in new car purchases during a recession.  Just like new house purchases.

Offline fdjake

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The question then becomes.............Does this recession last forever????

A recession is THE BEST thing that can happen to the new car business!!

WHAT?????  Pete, have you lost your marbles????

No.....You guy's have already hit on it.  As Phlemboy correctly pointed out....During a recession people KEEP their cars.  THEY DON'T BUY NEW ONE'S.    The beauty of that fact is, it eventually creates a HUGE PENT UP DEMAND for NEW CARS!!  This has occured in EVERY recession this country has ever had.

I have no idea as to exactly WHEN Ford will benefit from the current recession.  What I do know is this......I have just about 2 years to wait this recession out.  Even if we're STILL not out of it by then.  I will simply convert those options into stock (at $7.50/share)  and wait for the eventual turn.  Meanwhile Ford will continue to add new cars to their line up.  The new Focus is selling at 30% higher levels than the old one.  Edge/MKX sales are 20% over projections, The new FLEX hit's showroom's this summer.  Do you think it will sell better than the almost 10 year old EXPLORER???  Of coarse it will, recession or no recession.  Ford's numbers will be better because they have SUCKED so badly that this company could almost sell bicycles and put up better numbers than they have in the last 3 years.  Better or IMPROVING is what WALL St. will react to.  Once that fuse is lit, stand back.  Big Institutional Investors will buy this stock like it's going out of style as soon as they see a GLIMMER of a sustainable turn around at Ford.

The GREAT thing about recessions is historically, the very FIRST thing people buy at the END of that recession IS A NEW CAR!!!!  As already pointed out.....by keeping those older used cars to "ride out" the down turn,  future demand is GUARANTEED!!!!

I owned a successful used car dealership for 15+ years.  My family has been in the business for over 40.  You can almost set your watch to these cycles.  Cars are no longer LUXURY ITEMS.  They are necessities.
No matter how great the car, it eventually will wear out and need replacement.

Look at the TRENDS and buy your stocks based on what will happen TOMMORROW, not what headlines your reading TODAY!!!

One last point.......I laid it all out here for anyone who wants to read it.  It's HERO or ZERO, only time will tell.  BUT................remember these IDEAS, the IDEA is the seed!!!  You plant it and WAIT.  I have made a lot of money over the years going the SAME THING OVER and OVER.  This is one of those things.  When pieces of a huge puzzle start to get put together in a way that makes sense PAY ATTENTION TO THAT!!!  Ford is putting a puzzle together right now.  It's going better than MANY realize!!
« Last Edit: April 19, 2008, 07:39:28 pm by fdjake »

Offline NDLM

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Not another person posting what they bought 2 years ago...LOL...These posts are worthless...Put your balls on the chopping block and say what you are buying today or tomorrow...Anyone can say they bought this or that 10 years ago...I don't buy any of it..No offense...

Believe it or not really doesn't matter to me.  The point I was trying to make was NOT to guess, or speculate the market.  If one is so good at predicting the market or guessing it will go up 300 points one day and down another, then that person should already be a Billionaire instead of sitting here yapping or predicting the market up or down ... No offense...
"Learn from the mistakes of others. You can't live long enough to make them all yourself." -- Eleanor Roosevelt

Offline phlemboy

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I can see the point of buying new car stock now and wait for the BOOM. People will feel the need to reward themselves for all their time of "hardship". The question remains, which car company will be best positioned to capitalize. I feel the companies that dominated before will have an advantage.
"Fat drunk and stupid is no way to go through life son." --Dean Wermer

Offline rookieNYC

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Again THANK YOU ROOKIE!!  I remember arguing with you a few times about stock market investments.  You have FORGOTTEN more about investing in stocks than I will ever know!!!  Thanks for the advice! ( I do listen)

Nice way to play it...


NDLM,
  You have no idea what I have earned this year..I speak often with poster *allagash*...He can tell you that I bought size on the QQQQ and many other closed end funds that I posted here during the bloodbath..Your post was pointless and like I said post something of value...Don't get your panties in a bunch..

Also fwiw NDLM I get paid probably 10x-20x your annual salary to do exactly that , speculate..And so do the sharpest minds on wall street...Now post something of value and enough of the "I bought GOOG in 2005"...I make bold predictions because thats what I get paid to do...And if you look at my old posts I have hit the mark every time...Listen and earn...

Offline NDLM

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Also fwiw NDLM I get paid probably 10x-20x your annual salary to do exactly that , speculate..

Again, your guru wall street expertise is speculation.  Speculation and prediction is a very nice way to investing LOL...  Listen from a wall street guru making prediction and speculation is the best way to invest... LOL.

If I am not mistaken from reading your posts, you are some of type hedge fund manager managing and investing investors' money.  FYI, I have people like you working for me.  If I don't like the way they handle my porfolio or if I know that they speculate or predict the market, do you know what I would do?  I would get rid of them in a heart beat.  Now ... who will listen?... No offense!
"Learn from the mistakes of others. You can't live long enough to make them all yourself." -- Eleanor Roosevelt

 




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