Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!

[Liquidity]

rookie

this market will pick up as soon as the hedge fund's stop liquidating and all the margin calls are meet or liquidated and theirs calm back. when we have a few days of calm then you will see a jump when the cash comes pouring back into the market.

a lot of people keep pointing out how things are cheap now but people cant get back in to buy them because everyday theres 10% swings. Will people stop buying big macs, coca-cola, computers, cell phones, you name it. the government is pulling out all the stops they can and those stops are just getting some traction. Now's definetly not the time to be long anything but its coming soon. I think after the election things will get back to normal as far as volatility goes.

[Liquidity]

 that being said im back to all cash except for my ocnf , dividend play which isn't a big position at all.


the market kicked my ass today, took my profits from yesterday. 

[Liquidity]

wow this market is moving big time today. timing is everything in this market. the crazy 3 o clock hour is here this market swings hard at 3 oclock

[Liquidity]

this is bad im actually routing for the market to tank so i can pick up my stocks later at a better price.

poor investors gut wrenching watching this stuff.

[propertymanager]

Hey FDJake,

Our Ford stock is looking better and better.  As I said a couple of weeks ago, I think this Ford play is really a bet that the government won't allow Ford to file bankruptcy.  With Obama being elected and the dems picking up big majorities in Congress, I think that chances of the Dems allowing Ford to file bankruptcy are greatly reduced.  I bought back my first covered call for $.06, so I'm into Ford for $1.62 per share.  I'm hoping for another bounce in the next few days as it becomes apparent that the dems will bail out the auto industry and I've got another order in to sell the Nov. $3 covered call again for $.52.  Let's keep it going!!!

You had a good call on the Ford play!  Here's another you might take a look at:  ACI (Arch Coal).  Unless we don't need electricity anymore, then we're going to need coal.  I bought it on the last dip at $16.83 and sold a Nov. $17.50 Covered Call for $2.25.  It then went to up around $21, but is now coming back down.  I have an order in to buy my CC back at $.10.  I think the likely bottom is around $15, but it could go as low as $10 (worst case).  Check it out and let me know what you think!

Comrade Mike

[fdjake]

In my opinion, here's why FORD is a LOCK.......

The Dems sat and WATCHED as the Bush administration let LEHMAN collapse. That SINGLE MISTAKE created a series of events that DIRECTLY lead to a COLLAPSE in stock prices.

The Dems JUST got back in the drivers seat.  If share holders, pension funds, mutual funds, and anyone else with shares in Ford or GM are hungout to dry (like Lehman shareholders) ANY REMAINING people LEFT in the stock market will HEAD FOR THE DOORS.  THEY WILL SELL ANY STOCK, and we will have a repeat of the Lehman induced sell off!!  Can you IMAGINE the reaction on Wall St. to an announcement that either FORD or GM entered BANKRUPTCY?????  Forget it.....someone shut the lights off, it's OVER!!!  THIS WILL NOT BE ALLOWED TO HAPPEN.

The FED has already admitted that they completely screwed up by letting Lehman go under.  The best part about the CAR COMPANIES today was......

THE JOBS REPORT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

PEOPLE..........PAY ATTENTION HERE.

The jobs report was TERRIBLE.  A study just released by a highly regarded MIT economist concluded that a loss of either FORD or GM (just one of them) would DIRECTLY LEAD TO THE LOSS OF 2.5 MILLION JOBS!!!!!!!

There is NO WAY on earth that the DEMS will let GM or FORD go into bankruptcy.  BANKRUPTCY for an AUTOMAKER is NOT an option.
Someone here tell me WHO BUYS A NEW CAR FROM AN AUTOMAKER IN BANKRUPTCY???????

Answer..............NO ONE DOES!!!!!!

Ford and GM will get ANY and ALL the money they need to ride out this recession/depression.  As I've said before......There is ABSOLUTELY NOTHING BETTER than recession to build PENT UP DEMAND for automobiles.   Once the economy turns, ( it could EASILY take 4-5 years)....BUT....after EVERY SINGLE RECESSION in HISTORY....the FIRST thing people buy are NEW CARS!!!!  They replace the junkers that they HAD to keep driving during the lean times.  Car company stocks will make gains that will BLOW YOUR MIND!!!!

When this lights off (and it will)....I would NOT be surprised to see FORD RIP right up to the mid $30/share range.
It sounds CRAZY to say this now.....but I HAVE DONE THIS BEFORE.  People have incredibly SHORT MEMORIES!!!!

YOU ARE BUYING A COMPANY...... THAT THE MOST POWERFUL COUNTRY ON EARTH.........

W I L L   N O T    A L L O W   T O   F A I L!!!!

It REALLY doesn't get much better than this gentlemen!!!!

Buy now...or WISH you had later!!!!

[Liquidity]

i bought gm earlier for 4.10  sold it at 4.30 got lucky on the high.

I am hoping gm goes down again end of the day. its gonna double in a very short time, so will F.


funny when cnbc was saying they will go bk gm plummeted, funny they can say stupid things and people will panic. If GM and F go bk this country will be in a depression !!

buy them today because by monday the tune will be changed from panic to celebration.

[Liquidity]

the talk is Auto's should file BK because the gov's money will come with restrictions.  lets look at it.


they say gm has 17bln and if they file bk they can still operate. bs shareholders who lost there money would never buy another GM made car in their life if they choose bk instead of a government bailout. they would still have to cut jobs and a lot of them. those jobs affect other companies jobs, it has a trickle down affect.  hmmm hmmm LEHMAN hmmm hmmm

theres no way i see any auto's going bk. they are really too big to fail. those restrictions that would likely come along with government money is needed. these auto have done little to evolve their business. they are going to be forced to change anyways. they will take any money they can get to do it.

[phlemboy]

I figured I'd resurrect this thread since Congress will be taking this issue up this week.
 I think the Automakers will not be allowed to fail. I actually have two questions about this.

1. If the Ford play is a good investment ( which I think it is), wouldn't it be wise for the govt. to "invest" taxpayer money to reap the rewards? The way I understand it, this would be a loan. Therefore would have to be paid back.

2. Someone advised me to open a sharebuilder.com account. Then I can buy stocks. Does this sound like a good idea or is there another website? I don't have much to invest, but I want to give it a try. Any suggestions?

[justin0419]

Sharebuilder is a good cheap site to trade from.  Fees are low.  If you set up the automatic investment, you can get $4 trades.  The problem with those is the trades go thru on a predetermined date so you can't jump on something when you see the price where you want in or out.  We've used sharebuilder for a couple years with no issues except the stocks we bought are in the toilet. 
You can still pay more for market trades that execute after you put in your order.  I'm just saying the $4 trades advertised have some restrictions.

[propertymanager]

I'd like to put my moderator hat on for just a moment and remind EVERYONE that investing in the stock market involves risk.  Furthermore, investing in a company that may go bankrupt involves a LOT OF RISK.  You could easily lose every penny you put in.

FDJake is investing in Ford with discretionary money, which means that if he loses it all, he's not going to be broke or need to alter his lifestyle.  Trading and/or investing in stock requires becoming educated, just as investing in real estate requires education.  So, please carefully consider where you put your money.  If you lose it, the only person you'll have to blame is yourself!!!

Mike

[rookieNYC]

To add to what Mike just posted...

When you read or hear someone make UNREAL claims of profits you can bet its a LIE..These are only feeble attempts to lure others into a dream which will surely become a nightmare...The stock market is the HARDEST way to make money for the inexperienced..I'm a *professional*,this is what I do for a living and I found this year incredibly difficult...Thats because I trade/invest with REAL MONEY...When I post I do so based on REAL TRADES WITH REAL MONEY...Not hypothetical dreaming of what I coulda,shoulda or woulda done...Its very important newbies and veterans realize the difference between the real and the FAKE..Stocks that are under $5 are viewed as high risk garbage on wall street..A stocks price reflects the value of the business and the inherent risk of owning it...You ever heard the term you get what you pay for?..If it sounds too good to be true it IS...Just go to any market related site and read about the bloodshed on wall street, that of consumate professionals...So if you believe some part time real estate investors are making outrageous profits and the best of the best are dying in the streets then I have bridge for sale cheap..

YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED...FOLLOW THE SHEEP AND YOU SHALL BE SLAUGHTERED..

[fdjake]

"Stocks under $5 are viewed as GARBAGE on Wall Street"

Man.....it must STINK there NOW!!!! 

Using that logic, I guess a whole LOT of INVESTMENT BANKS are GARBAGE NOW too???.......But hey......THEIR RUN BY THOSE "PRO'S".....RIGHT??
(That's called sarcasim Rookie....Go ahead....Fire one back )

I have a different opinion....

I've been investing my OWN money for over 20 years.  I've taken profits from BOTH Real Estate and Stocks.  Those profits have been poured into a commercial real estate portfolio that is CONSERVATIVELY estimated at between $8 million and $10 million.  It consists of self storage warehouses, industrial buildings, and a few recently aquired residential homes.

I purchased my first commercial building with the profits from CHRYSLER STOCK that was purchased in 1992.   From my experience....You can take EVERYTHING you have ever READ, or been TOLD about investing in stocks and FLUSH IT!!!!

If the EXPERTS were REALLY EXPERTS, why have so many of them had their @sses handed to them this year????  Why did the EXPERTS PILE into CDO's that are now WORTHLESS???  Why did the EXPERTS lever their companies 40 to 70 TIMES???  If THOSE are the smartest guy's in the room???????? WE NEED SMARTER GUY'S!!!!!!!!

Listening to some people here, you would think you need an Ivy League Education to successfully invest in stocks..........YOU DON'T.

Want to know what (stock market) investments I made this year???? (2008)  3 investments......That's IT.....I purchased WAY out of the money PUTS on USO in late June.  The USO is the United States Oil index....It didn't take an EXPERT to see a few things......If any of you care to wander through my previous posts you can read these ideas for yourself...... They were posted when OIL WAS around $130/barrel!!!!!  I actually sent Rookie a DETAILED PM of this investment when oil was in the high $120 range.

Here's what a DUMB Firefighter saw the the EXPERTS missed.....

I watched FIREFIGHTERS I worked with trade in F-150's BY THE DOZENS to buy Honda CIVICS,  I saw ARTICLE after ARTICLE in newspapers that said RIDERSHIP on PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION was up 500%!!!!!!
I saw people STAYING HOME on vacations so they didn't have to spend $4.30/ gallon for GAS......IN other words, I saw FUTURE DEMAND for OIL DROPPING.....I saw an ECONOMY weakening.

The options I purchased in USO went up 3 TIMES in value and I SOLD them.   If I had KEPT them they would have eventually went up 10 times in value......BUT, a 300% return is hard to bitch about. Maybe a PRO could have got the 1000%.

Number 2..........FORD  OPTIONS........LOT'S OF THEM......Those and a nice PILE of Ford STOCK at sub $2.00 levels!!!  STILL own it ALL.....CAN NOT WAIT for all the "Wish I had's" in 5 years from this bad boy!!!!

Number 3.........A short postion in QQQQ ....June 09 $20 PUTS to be exact...... I don't think this market is ANYWHERE NEAR it's bottom.....Job losses are just NOW starting and THEY....like EVERYTHING ELSE in this economic DISASTER, will be FAR, FAR worse than the "EXPERTS" are predicting.  WATCH!!!!

Here's what you need to understand......IT'S NOT HARD if you OPEN YOUR EYES!!!

This economic event has been UNDER ESTIMATED AT EVERY LEVEL!!!  HOUSING, OIL PRICES, COMMODITES, BANK FAILURE RATES, INVESTMENT BANKS DISSAPPEARING......
EVERYTHING...........

If you believe..... After a track record like THAT....The "EXPERTS" now have a handle on FUTURE UNEMPLOYMENT RATES????????  YOUR KIDDING YOURSELF....

The BOZO'S are SEVERELY underestimating how bad JOB LOSSES will get in this country.......JOB loses are EVERYTHING!!!!  This will be the LAST SHOE TO DROP....Do you realize that estimates for unemployment at the PEAK of this recession/depression are only 7 to 8%
Watch.........before it's over....we WILL HAVE unemployments levels WELL OVER 10% EASILY...........EASILY.....That 2 to 3% difference is GIGANTIC!!!

Job losses are like a DOG chasing it's TAIL...They KEEP GOING....Layoffs from the Plant down the street lead to layoffs and loss of business in restaurants, retail stores, hardware stores, car dealers, EVERYTHING..
When I hear the NIT WITS talking about NOW being a GREAT TIME to buy STOCK????  I just shake my head....

Here's the key to investing......DON'T DO IT......UNLESS, there's SOMETHING to do!!!!!   The ONLY advantage guy's like us have is knowing when NOT to play the game.  I wait for the ODDS to line up in my favor by a BIG margin....People here see Ford as a RISK......I could NOT disagree MORE...  This company WILL NOT be allowed to fail....It actually leaves me speechless to hear people talk about BANKRUPTCY for FORD.......IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.....BECAUSE NO ONE......Let me repeat that....NO ONE is going to BUY A NEW CAR from a BANKRUPT MAKER!!!!!  The BEST PART though......The absolute BEST PART....is how all the PRO'S turn their backs on this investment.......It makes me LOVE IT even more!!!!  I cannot tell you how well I sleep at night knowing all the PRO'S are RUNNING away from this stock!!!!!!!

3 trades THIS YEAR.......2 of which I still OWN.....  UP 300%!!!  NO dreaming here........just REALITY.

[rookieNYC]

Using that logic, I guess a whole LOT of INVESTMENT BANKS are GARBAGE NOW too???.......But hey......THEIR RUN BY THOSE "PRO'S".....RIGHT??


Ok you asked for it and my response will be short...

First off the pig business of RE investing caused this mess by the Democrats forcing the regulations of banks to lend to high risk individuals..I don't hear you say one bad word about Barney Frank or Chuck Schumer for strong arming the industry to lend to these people..Or did I miss your posts about that?...Didn't think so...Banking was and will be once again a very profitable business once they get back to lending to people with high credit and assets,instead of broke individuals...

Now the issue of your *DREAM* trading...You love to take credit for trades *AFTER* the fact...This stock goes down %60 then you magically had 9000 puts from some unheard of level...Granted you claimed to *WANT* to short oil,never did you announce a signicant position in put options..But once again magically you take credit for owning massive amounts of USO puts *AFTER* the fact...Then to make matters even more unbelievable you claim to have a *HIGH* 6 figure account that is up %300...So I should assume that you had a couple hundred thousand bet on options..Your entire account?...    

Any *experienced* trader worth his salt would never and I mean NEVER push all the chips on the table for any bet..I manage a 7 figure account (personal) and I would never risk even %25 of my net worth on any bet...It's called capital preservation...Had you said I bet 20k,30k I *MAY HAVE* believed you...But you had to say you bet it *ALL*...You bet the entire blanking farm,the entire enchilada on OPTIONS.... ...Total BS...Naked shorts none the less...The highest risk move there is in the industry..And to make it even more comical and unbelievable you were shorting USO at $94 oil...So I'm to believe that you kept adding to your short while oil squeezed your ball$ off..Essentially watching your account vanish (6 figures at that) before it miraculously went up %300...

To end this nonsense I want you to give specific trades,entry prices,symbols on options or stock BEFORE hand...End this months after the fact * I made a miracle happen * trading...Because I don't believe any of it..And anyone stupid enough to believe it deserves to have their money vanish..

There is little doubt that you clearly have some knowledge of the equity markets and you are intelligent but my father always told me to believe none of what you hear and half of what you see..I respect your profession,my brother in law is FDNY and I admire that but I have to highly question the rest of your chirade..

Like I said ANNOUNCE entry dates,time,prices,symbols BEFORE you make any trades and I will STFU...

[fdjake]

Ok  Rookie.....

First off.....I NEVER said I used EVERY SINGLE DOLLAR in my trading account to buy puts in the USO........NEVER SAID THAT........I STILL have the email I sent you WITH THE DATE when I mentioned this trade to you......The DAY that email was sent oil traded at $128/barrel...that's a FACT.  You can tell people whatever you want, but it's hard to argue with a dated email and a POSTED closing price.

Here's the intersting part to me.........According to your logic, there is NO WAY I could have withstood the price move AGAINST those USO puts when OIL moved to it's eventual high of $147.........Yet......I STILL hold my postion in FORD????? 

You obviously would have BAILED OUT on those USO puts...THAT WOULD HAVE BEEN A MISTAKE...Like your prediction that....

McCAIN would pull out a surprise WIN

FORD would be sent to the secondary market because Kerkorian had a MARGIN CALL

OIL was headed to $200/barrel

YOU WERE WRONG ON ALL OF THOSE CALLS.... I don't CHANGE my opinions based on what 15 other  "smart" guy's in a ROOM are doing.

As far as my political beliefs????

NO ONE CARES.......

There's enough BLAME here (on BOTH sides) to fill a STADIUM.

FINALLY.......

The most recent open position I have is in the June 09 QQQQ $16 puts (1000 contracts) purchased on 11/12/08 at .50

I will also enter a LONG TERM STOCK postion in GOODYEAR TIRE.
The stock has been HAMMERED.....OIL and RUBBER prices have falllen through the FLOOR in the last 3 months.  This will drop Goodyears COSTS BIG TIME, yet you can be SURE their TIRE prices WILL NOT drop...I will be BUYING TODAY!!!  The stock closed at $5.42 on Friday.
I'll be sure and let you know EXACTLY when and at what price I get in....This will be an INVESTMENT, not a TRADE...so if in a week it is trading at $4.00....I......will NOT be BAILING OUT.  (I don't have to worry about all those "smart guy's" breaking my b*lls about an open postion)