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Author Topic: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!  (Read 83536 times)

Offline jmd_forest

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Does everyone still feel the same about Ford after Kerkorian just dumped 7.3 million shares at a loss of about $500 million?

jmd_forest

Offline rookieNYC

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I was trying to avoid this topic but personally I feel it can only be bad news...Why on earth would Kerkorian take a $500 million loss on Ford at $2.15 a share???...There is simply no way to spin this into a positive..Kerkorian has gotten his b**** kicked in severely hard and severely fast with Ford...His exit on GM was flawless at $35 a share,so he is very much in the know..The issue from what I have read is that Ford will take double to triple the amount of years to turn around due to economic downturn..So Kerkorian is doubling down on his Las Vegas holdings that will likely rebound much more aggressively than Ford..IMHO Ford has always been and always will be a *highly speculative* play...If you have a decade you may do well,but it will be like watching grass grow..In fact grass will grow much faster than Ford..This is why I don't like making recommendations on buying individual stock,it's simply impossible to know what will happen..Whenever a stock is cheap its cheap for a reason,and when stocks get under $5 its like the kiss of death...

Offline propertymanager

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In my opinion, this Ford play has nothing to do with cars and everything to do with the Government.  This is a bet that the government won't allow Ford to file bankruptcy and it's a risky bet.  Right now, everyone is being bailed out.  However, people on Main Street are angry (including me) and at some point bailout fatigue may cause the government to allow companies to fail once again.

My plan on Ford is to attempt to own the stock free by selling covered calls on it over the next few months.  I bought it at $2.10 and ended up selling the $3 covered calls at $.54, meaning that I'm in the stock at $1.56.  With a little luck, there will be a rally each month that will allow me to keep selling covered calls each month.  IF I could own the stock for free, then there's no real risk.  It's the same concept as buying rental properties at a HUGE discount.

Mike
www.1MinuteToRentalPropertyRichs.com 
This No-Hype, No-Nonsense Book is a step by step course in making money and building wealth with rental properties!  Everything from buying properties at a discount to dealing with terrible tenants.  Now In Paperback!

Offline fdjake

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Kirk didn't buy his Ford shares with CASH, he purchased the stock with LOANS from Bank of America.  In order to GET those loans he had to put his shares of MGM up as collateral.  He was about to LOSE those MGM shares in a margin call.

Here's the whole story....

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/oct2008/db20081021_531630.htm?campaign_id=rss_daily

Offline rookieNYC

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fdjake,
  Lets call it what it is...Kerkorian *dumped* Ford...He took a massive stop on a losing trade...Now he is trying to unwind the rest of his position..Mazda is also following suit...No trader takes a $500 million loss if he is the slightest inclination a bounce is imminent..No trader I have ever met in my life...kerkorian has plenty of funds to meet margin calls and he chose to LOSE and not double down yet again on a losing investment...there is no spinning this move...

Offline fdjake

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Rookie,

I respect your opinion here, and you may be proven correct. BUT.....

You and I had some very heated debates a few years ago when I predicted EXACTLY what we are now living through.  We are entering a DEFLATIONARY DEPRESSION.  ALL asset classes are falling and this has ALL happened before.  It was called THE GREAT DEPRESSION.

When I PM'd you this summer to explain that I was buying puts in the USO (shorting the OIL market) because demand for oil would slow as our economy slowed.  I further explained that I thought CHINA would take a BEATING as Amercans stopped BUYING, (remember...it was CHINA that the experts said was causing oil to rocket) I mentioned that ridership on public transportation was at all time highs, people were trading in their SUV's for Honda Civic's, bike sales were soaring, in other words...people were doing ANYTHING in their power to AVOID using OIL.  You strongly warned me AGAINST  THAT investment.  You mentioned a bullish chart pattern. 

I am up 10 TIMES on those USO puts and there is NO END IN Sight for a bottom in oil. 

There are very few people here who's opinions I respect more than yours.  So far FORD stock has been KILLED, but Kirk Kerkorian's sale does not change the underlying theory.......

OBAMA, like it or not...IS the next President...IT'S DONE.  This isn't OPINION....IN EVERY economic disaster in HISTORY the party in power GETS THE BOOT.. This time will be NO DIFFERENT!!!!
The DEMS and their new President will give GM and FORD whatever loans they require to KEEP them alive thorugh this BUST.  Time is all Ford needs.....without that TIME, they ARE DEAD!!!

My bet is Ford gets the money through the Goverment, and that money,  BUYs them time.  If it gets so bad that even TIME won't help???
I'll be buying GUNS at that point because the economy will have collapsed.

Rookie.....you are one of the smartest people I know...you could very easily be right on Ford.  I also appreciate that you took the time to warn me about the perils of this investment.  But......sometimes you just have to go with your gut....in my experience, and without exception, EVERY SINGLE TIME I have ignored that GUT feeling, I have regretted it.  It may sound overly simplistic, but I go with what works for me.  I've been wrong in the past and so have you.  It's part of the process, LEARNING from those mistakes is a HUGE part of successful investing over the LONG HAUL.  If Ford survived the disasterous 1970's with Oil prices at never before seen highs, unemployment in double digits, interest and mortgage rates in the teens, I feel strongly, with Goverment backing, they will survive this..
We will all see....

« Last Edit: October 22, 2008, 09:42:21 am by fdjake »

Offline rookieNYC

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You strongly warned me AGAINST  THAT investment.  You mentioned a bullish chart pattern. 

If I remember correctly when we had the conversation oil was at $96 per barrel..So I was correct to stay out of oils way for the time being..To sit here today and say you  were short USO from $96 oil and you held short through $147 oil is impossible for me to fathom...I also don't hold much credit to positions I read about months after they were supposedly taken on..I live in the here and now and I don't feel that many of the posts that are displayed here represent the true entries and exits of positions spoken about..Its very easy to say I bought the QID at $40 and sold it at $80..Who is going to know???...After the fact trading is for dreamers,I'm a pro I live in the present time..Not what I dream up overnight..I respect your opinion and you are clearly a knowledgeable guy but we as traders make mistakes...Its just part of what we do..There is no harm in saying yes I muffed up on Ford it turned out to be a real POS pig...And I think we would all respect you for being *RESPONSIBLE* and up front..Rather than to say months after Frod freefell that you secretly bought puts or magically hedged yourself,like you or anyone else knew the markets would crater and Ford would follow..There is no harm to man up...

Not looking to sling mud nor stir the pot..This is what I do and I can poke holes in many things I read here and I don't...For a big mouth Italian (me) I keep my opinion to myself..

Offline fdjake

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I NEVER said I bought puts in Ford......I have NEVER owned PUTS in Ford.

AND.....Oil was over $120 when I sent you that PM.  I still have your response.

I'm not arguing with you here.  I respect your opinions too much for that. 

Ford's been a DOG...no doubt about it...but it's no where NEAR over.
For someone who's holding times are mearured in minutes, this is NOT a good way to make money.  BUT.................the ONLY advantage I have is in the fact that I DON'T have to be TRADING all the time.  I can SIT and wait.

Nothing has changed with regards to Ford.  The MARKET sucks, that's true, and it's going to get worse.
I know you trade professionally, but I didn't start doing this 2 years ago either.  I've been investing EXACTLY this way for over 18 years. IT WORKS FOR ME.  It's not about being right or wrong, or about admitting your right or wrong.....it's about having a PLAN and WORKING that plan.   How in hell do you think I learned this......I LEARNED it by making the mistake of buying into OTHER PEOPLES OPINIONS and BAILING OUT of positions that would have made me TON'S of money.  You only do that so many times before you LEARN.  You LEARN or you LEAVE.  I don't LEAVE.

If you remember correctly....I DIDN'T BUY FORD because KIRK Kerkorian was buying it.  I was in LONG before he was even IN.  So why then would I SELL it when he does???  This is cut and dried..he was about to lose a HUGE stake in MGM on a margin call.  He bailed inorder to save THAT postion.  He made his call, I'm making mine.

This is what investing is all about.  It's not about doing what Rookie, or Kirk, or Warren, or anyone else thinks.  It's about DOING what the person putting up the DOUGH thinks.
Time will tell.....

I STILL haven't heard anyone here, INCLUDING ROOKIE, tell me how FORD goes under with GOVERMENT LOAN GUARANTEES????  Show me how that business fails with THAT for a back stop???  Even if the BANKS won't make those loans, the GOVERMENT will.

You guy's are MISSING IT....unemployment is going to ROCKET from here.
It will be POLITICAL SUICIDE to let a company close it's doors that employs TEN'S OF THOUSANDS of people DURING A DEPRESSION.

THEY SURVIVED THE FIRST GREAT DEPRESSION......THEY'LL SURVIVE THIS
ONE.

I will leave you all with this......

Rookie said over a year ago that Ford was dog and it would probably go lower. 

HE has been proven 100% CORRECT.

I bought Ford for a 2 to 4 year turn around play.  I'll be sure and let you ALL know, good or bad, how it works out!!!  My gut and my experience tells me we BOTH end up being RIGHT.




« Last Edit: October 22, 2008, 03:01:16 pm by fdjake »

Offline rookieNYC

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ok fdjake...Your still my man !!!....

I don't know about you guys but I have seen a few traders wearing hard hats today...This blood is unreal..I took a %4 stop my closed end funds..i bought into the blood again at exactly 3:48 pm...I bought sso.qld.ddm.usd.ure.uyg.bac.ge.rsx.eem....

Lets see if i can get a bounce that continues..made %2 back of the %4 I lost in 10 minutes using these 2x etfs compared to holding those closed end funds that MELTED....No sleep tonight again..Oh well its only money...

Offline fdjake

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I gotta give you credit man...Psychologically it's BRUTAL.

I read your post a few days back.....That was probably the most insightful look into the mind of a trader I have ever read.  The ability to control your emotions is incredible.

I couldn't do it....I know that...My saving grace is being able to just step back and NOT play when things get crazy. 

Still learning a ton from you Rookie...

Thanks!

Offline Liquidity

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I just joined you on SSO but i got it @ 28.55  :beer

I think tomorrow should bounce up 300 pts. Im comfortable with these stocks.


well now i dont feel so bad i bought right around the time you did but i should have been watching DAL i could have gotten it for $1 less a share and im alittle nervous about the sell off intra-day. the only news was nwa's  oil hedge will cost nwa money with lower oil prices and they're gonna merge later this year.


Offline Liquidity

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man i did alot of trading in one of my accounts today. i think 3 day trades i got chill on that for the rest of week now. 


rookie do you use margin ?? i hear alot of people advise against it, wondering what your thoughts are on it.

Offline rookieNYC

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rookie do you use margin ?? i hear alot of people advise against it, wondering what your thoughts are on it.

In my personal accounts no I don't normally use margin unless we are under much different market conditions...At the moment I'm only using %7 of my available capital...I presently have %93 in cash...FSLXX to be exact..It pays a whopping %2.88...LOL...fwiw YTD I'm *UP* %3.1 on %100 capital...I've worked my butt off to get that...

fdjake....
   Psychology is the name of this game..I'm here to help and I love to be helped...I still learn something everyday from this market..What I definitely have learned is that im going to be justing indexing for a while...Closed end funds MELT...Not liquid enough to be in this market....ETF's or nothing...

Offline Liquidity

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ugh lost $20 on commissions on SSO i should sold for a dollar per share profit.

DUG looks like its gonna be a winner again today. intra-day low was around 47 @ 53 now. I didnt think the sell off would continue today, but what do know i dont run a hedge fund so.

Offline rookieNYC

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between yesterdays and entries and some sub par exits today I did ok,but didn't get great exits...Hindsight is 20/20...Movin on ...Just glad not to be an investor..Jeez does this ever end ....I feel horrible for the retirees...Dreams are being crushed and what I think everyone is missing about this is how long the recovery will take...The destruction of wealth that is taking place will take decades to rebuild..You are witnessing history to be alive during these times..Seems like these markets are setting up for the big one (crash)...Just has a bottomless feel...Hopefully I'm wrong,very wrong...


Classic Fed liquidity injection just before markets are ready to break down...
« Last Edit: October 23, 2008, 02:09:52 pm by rookieNYC »

 




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