Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!

[rookieNYC]

Like I said ANNOUNCE entry dates,time,prices,symbols BEFORE you make any trades and I will STFU...

[propertymanager]

These are some good discussions.  I think the key points being made are that:

FDJake is investing based on common sense.  I like that approach because my own experience in the stock/options market is that it is nearly impossible for a small investor to invest on fundamentals because we are always lacking the whisper information that the big boys like RookieNYC have as a result of being in the business.  So, trading Ford stock based on the political assumption that Ford will not be allowed to file bankruptcy is a good common sense trade.  The further assumption that the new democratic administration will try to protect those union jobs at Ford and therefore do a bailout is also common sense.  Of course, common sense can go right out the window when you're talking about politicians in Washington, and therefore I think EVERYONE should be careful about where they put their money.

RookieNYC is a professional trader and is providing an excellent warning about the very real risks associated with trading in this market.  Even the VERY BEST traders on Wall Street have had great difficulty this past year and NO-ONE KNOWS WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN THE FUTURE.  His point that you shouldn't bet the farm on a single position (or even a few positions) is excellent advice.  This market (and our ecomony) could crash and stay down for MANY, MANY years because of the underlying sickness of our country.  It's happened before.

Finally, I like the idea that those that are trading stocks or options to post the entry dates, time, prices, and symbols at the time they actually make the trade.  That will be fun and we can all see how everyone does.   I encourage everyone that is trading to participate and to add their rationale for the trade to their post.

Mike

[fdjake]

Hey Mike,

Rookie and the "PRO'S" will think this is a "GARBAGE STOCK",  but this piece of junk made me some REAL MONEY the last time it hit $5.00.  Check out the 10 year chart.....

http://finance.aol.com/charts/the-goodyear-tire-and-rubber-company/gt/nys/classic-charts

You gotta love the outright ARROGANCE that NO ONE but "Pro's" are smart enough to make money investing.

SIMPLE IDEAS, executed at a time when they are WALKING AWAY will hand them their @sses EVERYTIME!!!!!!!!!!

Scroll down to the bottom of this page and read how much RAW RUBBER PRICES are falling!! Don't forget to add in plumeting STEEL and OIL prices too.....TIRES = OIL, RAW RUBBER, and STEEL!!

http://www.dawn.com/2008/10/26/ebr18.htm

[fdjake]

Mike,

Here's almost everything we've been warning about.....

http://gnn.tv/headlines/18774/Celente_Predicts_Revolution_Food_Riots_Tax_Rebellions_By_2012

[fdjake]

11/17/2008........Goodyear...........20,000 shares purchased at $5.44/share!!!

Talk to me in 2 years......I'm not interested in hearing BS next month if it's at $4.00.  I'll be buying more.

[propertymanager]

FDJake,

I think you are right that Goodyear (GT) has some potential, but I'm betting that I will be able to buy it at $3.50 per share in the near future (at least that's what the charts are saying to me). 

I believe that this market fundamentally changed last week when Paulson spoke (as I wrote in an earlier post).  We now seem to be in a SLOW GRIND lower.  I will be very surprised is we can hold 7,700 on the DOW much longer.   If you look at a 20 yr chart with monthly bars, we're at the 200 (month) moving average.  Where's the support below here?  Very minor support at 7,200; a little better support at about 5,500; then pretty good support at about 4,000 on the DOW.  If things get bad enough for food riots and squatter rebellions, then we'll be a LOT lower than we are now.

Mike

[fdjake]

Elliot Wave Theory says.......

DOW 1000 

Super Cycle Bear  Market.

[propertymanager]

Got an article reference on that DOW 1,000?  I'd love to read it.

Mike

[fdjake]

I just wanted to add one thing here.....

I have a HUGE amount of RESPECT for Rookie.....The guy's a SELF MADE MAN!!!   There is NOTHING that I respect more than someone who can take NOTHING, and BUILD it into SOMETHING OF VALUE..

He does that FOR A LIVING!!!!!!!

I wouldn't last 2 SECONDS in the enviroment that he makes LIVING in.

I have strong opinions, so does Rookie.....Hopefully these occasional debates we have, bring something to this site.  It's about stating opinions, theories, and thought processes, then WATCHING how things play out....

I enjoy sparring with him because he's SMART....It brings my game up a notch when I KNOW he's gonna break my b*lls.   This is a by-product of being a  Firefighter....Breaking b*lls is an ART FORM where I work.  

My guess is things AREN'T much different on Wall St.  

[phlemboy]

I actually get a lot from these discussions. Whether it's RE or stocks, you guys have a lot to offer through these discussions. Thanx for the insight.

[LakesideEstimating]

fdjake (and others),

what are your comments on this article?

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/Extra/gop-to-detroit-drop-dead.aspx

[propertymanager]

I don't think it matters.  The Dems have already signalled their intention to bail out the Big 3 (really the unions and union pensions).  So, what Bush or the Republicans want is basically irrelevant.  The real risk is whether the public gets very upset about the bailouts and puts pressure on the government to stop bailing everyone out.

Mike

[rookieNYC]

ok all the BS aside...fdjake I will deal with you later ..kidding..


I'm starting to pair into International and American etf's here...Only %10 of my total portfolio...

EEM,EFA,EWJ,EWH,EWT,EWM,EWS,FXI,IFN,MOO,INP,QLD,SSO,DDM,RSX,URE,USD,UYG,UYM....

I firmly believe that %10 of my money has to be in equities...I have a %90 CASH position otherwise...And yes I'm taking a small amount of heat on my entries here...But thats what you get buying into blood...I will try my best to hold these but I think international especially Asia has been beat to piss...Russia also is down %75 YTD...RSX...

I bought everything at about 3:51 pm with one basket order...Basket order is one stroke of the key and I get filled on everything ....

I'd like to also add that I like High Yield Debt and High Yield Bond Funds here but I missing the cajones to be attached to holding periods of mutual funds right now...Even if I bought closed end funds now they are too illiquid for these markets and seeing %10 price swings sickens me...So I may have to pay up at a later date,but hopefully we can all laugh about these prices next year..I'm not saying we will but I just truly feel things are overdone enough for me to allocate %10 of my money into this mess..Especially interantionally...American markets may very well see %10-%15 more downside but who knows...

[LakesideEstimating]

The problem as I see it, Mike, is the gov't is offering the Big 3 $25 billion in loans IF THEY RETOOL to make more fuel efficient vehicles.

How can they afford to retool when this video says GM will RUN OUT OF MONEY in 6-9 months?!? The are hemhorraging $2 bil a month.

This is a tough one to me, but I agree with you guys that the gov't CANNOT let the Big 3 sink!

[fdjake]

REMEMBER.......GM DOES NOT have the product pipeline FORD does...

I wouldn't go anywhere NEAR GM stock.....Our economy is on the rocks.  You don't want to buy ANY American car company, you want the one that is BEST positioned when this mess is history.  Ford has lower cash burn rates than GM, a BETTER UAW contract, and the cars coming here from Europe are ALREADY selling like hot cakes there.

Chrysler is GONE.......Hyundai is the latest "buyer". Cerbius can not dump this turd quick enough.  They'll get eaten up little by little or sold at Fire sale prices....

My best estimate is we are left with just Ford and GM.