THE BUBBLE HAS BURSTED!

Hello to all,

Well at least this is what a “Stock Broker” told me yesterday. To sell my properties for what I could get for them and invest in Stocks. hummm

So I was wondering about what prices on Real Estate is doing accross the USA?

I have noticed in the beach area of NC, and Clearwater Beach, FL prices on some listing have dropped or they are not selling.

Yes, I understand there is a Market correction going on here to some extent but . . .

My topic for disscussion is:

Has the “Bubble” per say, burst in your area?

What is the Real Estate climate like in your chosen investment areas? ???

You need another Stock Broker…one that speaks ‘more gooder’ English…

He might have been trying to line his own pockets…

Keith

I sent Ron Inosano an email a couple years ago, and told him; he was “starting to sound like a broken record.” He’d been carrying on about an imminent Housing Bubble for four years @ that point…clear back to when he was still wearing a toupee! The guy who interviewed the President felt compelled to respond…though his debate revealed just how little he understood the housing markets.

Prices are increasing in the Pacific Northwest, and homes that are competitively priced are still selling in a matter of days (our recent attempt @ a purchase failed as the home sold in 2 days w/multiple offers). Lack of product combined with high (and increasing demand) looks good for this region for sometime to come (Bubble Heads need not apply).

-Infowell

Dallas seems to be doing okay, but higher int rates have slowed it down some. And foreclosures are up and will IMO only get “worse” as all those interest only ARMS start to creep up for people living on the edge.

Of course, that’s good news for me!

We’re actually seeing some upward movement in prices here, too. It’s been really stale for quite a while. I sold a property today for more than I thought I would…

Keith

Never trust investment advice from someone who gets paid a comission based on your transaction volume. As the old saying goes, “The broker made money. The firm made money. Two out of three isn’t bad.”

As others have said, I think it really depends on your market. Here in the SF bay area prices are starting to go down in some areas. Houses are staying on the market longer. Foreclosures are increasing. It may become an investors market before too long.

Prices are still increasing on this part of the NC Coast. Listing inventory is up and sales volume is down but prices are still going up.

Yes, the bubble is bursting, BUT a RE bubble bursting isn’t like a stock market bust. Things don’t happen in a matter of hours or days with real estate. Historically, housing bubble “bursts” take 2 years to hit bottom. Keep asking this question and in January 2008, the bubble burst will be over and we’ll finally be started back up. Hugh buying opportunities will occur for the next few years - I found an excellent doublewide for $10K today!

Mike

When the “bubble burst” during the Great Depression, the greatest reduction in home values in any one year was only 11%. We are definitely in a slowdown and some areas like Las Vegas are in real trouble, but it will vary from location to location.

Da Wiz

“Never trust investment advice from someone who gets paid a comission based on your transaction volume.”

Jaded advice.

I’m a Broker…I get paid commission…I’m also a State Certified Real Estate Appraiser. I have 16 years experience, and have valued an estimated 4,500 homes.

You’re advising NOT TO trust someone w/my qualifications? You’re advising NOT TO take the advice of a professional with that much knowledge of the marketplace? When someone wants help or advice regarding a subject…you’re advice is; NOT TO trust a proven expert?

-Infowell

stock brokers have a conflict of interest - regardless of whether their client makes money, they make their commission. Just look at what happened when the internet bubble burst - no-one had the guts to issue sell orders.

Realtors aren’t much better - I’ve come across many who have given bad advice because their main objective is to make their commission on the purchase or sale of the property.

I don’t trust anyone who stands to make money if the deal goes through

“I don’t trust anyone who stands to make money if the deal goes through.”

As an Associate Broker & Realtor…I understand this sentiment exists amongst a small percentage of the public.

I can usually sense when someone is suspicious, or untrusting of others, and I choose to avoid representing them in any transaction. Past experience has taught many of us that this type of personality is the most problamatic, and potentially litigious clientele to work with.

I prefer working with pleasant people who trust my advise & expertise. They’re plentiful enough to earn a very good living, and there’s just no need to tolerate distrustful individuals. I view that as “their loss…not mine.” I view choosing not to work with this mindset as risk reduction.

Odd how a Housing Bubble thread gets off on a tangent of not trusting real estate professionals.

-Infowell

“I don’t trust anyone who stands to make money if the deal goes through.”

That is an interesting comment. That means that you don’t trust your stock broker giving you advice on stock and you don’t trust your RE agent finding your deals. Great. My take on both of those is, you shouldn’t. You should use their expertise in their respectative fields to make an informed decision based on YOUR own due diligence.

Of course, that comment also means that you don’t trust your attorney/closing agent because they’ll make money on the deal. You don’t trust the seller because it’s likely that they’re making some money. You don’t trust the appraiser, or the home inspection person, or the repairmen, either.

Hey, if you want to take it far enough, technically speaking, you don’t even trust yourself, since I hope that you stand to make money in the deal.

Raj

It’s just a bad situation since what’s best the broker/agent (you buying or selling) isn’t necessarily best for you. Personally, I’ll find a broker/agent that invests themselves and ask them where they are putting their own money. If they aren’t putting their own money into what they are telling me to buy, that’s a bad sign. If they are selling the same position they are telling me to sell, that’s a bad sign.

So, to the guy that started this thread, you should ask your broker what his real estate exposure is and if he’s been selling his.

When you’re a professional in a field, and you listen to novices viewpoints regarding that profession…it amuses you.

The more they speak (write in this situation) the more you realize just how little they understand. They think they know, but they really don’t. They may have an anecdotal story or two to tell, but they’ve really very little comprehension of the function of a real estate agent.

Examples:

“If they aren’t putting their own money into what they are telling me to buy, that’s a bad sign.”

An experienced, proven, seasoned Agent (which is the type you should seek out) won’t be telling you “what to buy.” They’ll try and learn as much about you, your investment strategy, short-long term goals, etc., and match that information to the marketplace (it’s not about them…it’s about you).

Of course if you don’t know what your investment strategy is, if you don’t have any short or long term goals…then it’s easy to blame the Agent if you’re disatisfied later.

“If they are selling the same position they are telling me to sell, that’s a bad sign.”

That’s plain silly…what if the Agent’s strategy was to buy to flip, or they’ve decided to liquidate some holdings (as most investors invariably do)…that automatically makes their investment a “bad buy?”

Perhaps they’ve a child to put through college, or they’ve decided it’s time to capitalize on their success as an investor for a better (NOW less complicated) lifestyle.

The overwhelming majority of our clients are not only satisfied, but remain in touch long after we’ve helped them to buy and/or sell. Referrals are a successful Agents best kept secret…they cost nothing and are the result of a job well done.

We do have a small number of clients we’ll never work with again…but then again…they can’t seem to even get along with their own shadow.

-Infowell

You can’t say it much better than Info, so I won’t go into that part, but I’ve got to respond the “I only want to deal with an RE agent that is an investor.”

My question to you is why? Do you personally like to rummage through the “deals” that the agent/investor didn’t want?

Do you personally want your properties that you list put 2nd to anything that the agent/investor has on the market?

If you don’t like RE agents, then it’s doubtful that anything said here is going to change your viewpoint. However, if you want to be successful in this business, you might want to learn the a RE agent is simply another tool that can make your investing life easier and more productive.

And like tools, a good agent is better than a bad one, and a great agent is better than a good one. Personally, I prefer my Craftsman tools over the Dollar General brand any day. I’ll have my Sears tools for years and they’ll always perform as needed. The DG brand, you have to fuss and fight to make work and they need replaced frequently.

Raj

I used to be a stock broker and I can tell you first hand that both the US stock market and the real estate market are on the verg of collapse! :o :-X :-\

“I used to be a stock broker and I can tell you first hand that both the US stock market and the real estate market are on the verg of collapse!”

Yeah…but, not before California slids off into the ocean, a category 6 Hurricane slams into the Gulf Coast, a giant tsunami strikes Alaska, and an asteroid the size of Texas plummets to earth.

“I use to be…” ???

Interesting how quickly this thread got off-topic.

Here in northern Colorado (north of Denver), our market is fairly independent by city. In Greeley (ranching city), prices are backsliding by 1-2% from 2005. In Boulder, prices are overly high, but holding. Here in Fort Collins/Loveland, where I live, it is solidly a buyer’s market with average time on market approaching 6 months, but home values have been appreciating 4-6% for the past 5 years, while rents have actually gone down.

I just went to Provo, UT to look at properties for potential investments. The market there is a whole different ballgame from what I’m used to seeing here. Average time on market out there is 3 months or less, and home values are about 1/2 what they are here, but market rents are very comparable to my city.

My parents told me that their home, in the suburbs of Portland, OR, went up by about 18% last year.

As Jim Cramer always says, “There’s always a bull market somewhere…” Ya just gotta git out and find 'er!!

-Jassen

Here in Central North Dakota the market is steady. Homes have appreciated about 10% over the past four years. This year they are expected to be about 7-8%. There is only about one months supply of houses on the market and a lot of investors appear to be dumping the lower end homes.

The energy crunch is going on and new Ethonal plants going up in rural areas. I am trying to focus on some of the smaller areas that are expecting new jobs and industry. Housing in Western ND is very strong because of the Oil exploration that is booming.

I use one good Realtor and multiple appraissors.

Good Investing!
NDI