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Miscellaneous => Random Ramblings => Topic started by: fdjake on April 15, 2008, 01:15:26 pm

Title: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: fdjake on April 15, 2008, 01:15:26 pm
You all know that I own a considerable amount of Ford stock.  I know...Laugh all you want!!!!  I'm gonna laugh too............all the way to the bank in 2010!!!

Ford just announced today that they were increasing production of the Focus by 30% to meet unprecidented demand.

A few other interesting side notes......

The resigned Ford Escape/Mariner is BEATING the new Honda CRV in sales.
(This summer the Escape/Mariner will get the NEW V-6 and the new 6 speed transmission, FURTHER increasing already decent gas mileage)

The Edge and MKX are blowing past all initial sales estimates. (Ford originally forecasted 10,000 units/month.....They're selling....16,000!!!!)

JD Power just released new quality rankings.....Ford is now TIED with HONDA & TOYOTA!!

This summer Ford releases the new FLEX (http://uncrate.com/men/images/2007/04/ford-flex.jpg), a 7 passenger Crossover, with a 6 cylinder, and 6 speed automatic.  The Edge/MKX with the same motor and Tranny get over 25 MPG hi-way.  Ford already has more advance orders than it estimated. (Nice alterative to the 15mpg SUV's out there, it's also available with the Volvo derived ALL WHEEL DRIVE system)

Also this summer, Lincoln will release a redesigned MKS which looks GREAT!!
http://www.autospectator.com/cars/files/images/2008-Lincoln-MKS-06.jpg

What you need to understand is this...........NO ONE.....NO ONE...is expecting Ford to do ANYTHING.....Are these new models my DREAM CARS????    NO, they aren't....They don't have to be..All they need to
be is...BETTER THAN WHAT THEY REPLACE!!!!  If that happens, Fords sales increase and WALL STREET WILL TAKE NOTICE. 

Ford continues to close their excess dealers, they WILL be a smaller, BUT PROFITABLE company in the next few years.

Once Wall St. FINALLY catches on,  this stock which now trades at $6.80/share, should be a mind blower as far as appreciation goes.

I've been in the car business for over 15 years,  this is NOTHING new.  It happens in EVERY recession.

BUY IT,  or wish you had.

Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: allagash on April 15, 2008, 02:15:34 pm
fdjake....

Thanks for the update.

A spotty credit record?....What's that? You mailed back the keys to your mortgage lender and you still want that Ford Focus?  Well....I don't know if I can run this through Ford Motor Credit...but let me see what I can do:

ACF

-Mike
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: kdhastedt on April 15, 2008, 02:20:57 pm

I guess this is real estate related -- if you live in your car!

Keith
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: fdjake on April 15, 2008, 02:49:50 pm
I can't argue with your point Keith.   

I just figured that a lot of people are looking for places to invest money that isn't actually losing ground.  This might be ONE option....

It's all about building WEALTH.

Keith.....even if you just buy some for your kids....I STRONGLY believe you will not regret it. 

http://wardsauto.com/commentary/ford_ahead_gm/
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: kdhastedt on April 15, 2008, 03:06:59 pm

Thanks for the tip...my kids are 26 and 23-1/2 and both have jobs.  I'll pass the tip on to them but there's about 0% chance of me buying them any...after paying for their college, the "National Bank of Dad" has closed it's Wyoming Branch!

Keith
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: fdjake on April 15, 2008, 03:13:48 pm
 WOW....  Man, am I out to lunch.  For some unknown reason I thought you had young kids.  I'd being doing the same if my son was that age. :biggrin :biggrin :biggrin :biggrin
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: kdhastedt on April 15, 2008, 03:20:58 pm

"The Boy" is 26, graduated from college after playing four years of varsity football in Danville, VA.  My daughter decided college wasn't quite for her but spent almost 4 years at Virginia Commonwealth University anyway.

Keith

Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: justin0419 on April 15, 2008, 04:23:08 pm

"The Boy" is 26, graduated from college after playing four years of varsity football in Danville, VA.  My daughter decided college wasn't quite for her but spent almost 4 years at Virginia Commonwealth University anyway.

Keith



It took me 7 years to finish.  After I enlisted and had to start paying back $30K in student loans, I figured I'd better finish and have something to show for that money. 
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: kdhastedt on April 15, 2008, 05:03:52 pm

It took me 10 years while I was enlisted.  It's hard work going to school, having a family, and being in the military!   I wanted better for my kids.  I agreed to pay for each of their bachelor's degrees.

Keith
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S
Post by: BrianA06 on April 15, 2008, 06:16:18 pm
I also spent 10 years paying my way thru college.  But I hope some monthly cashflow sometime soon will help with my 30yr college loan payment schedule.  I also contribute to my ROTH IRA, so I will look into Ford.  It is a good time to invest in a lot of companies that are streamlining their operations and cutting off the fat. 
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S
Post by: $Cash$ on April 15, 2008, 07:51:59 pm

I guess this is real estate related -- if you live in your car!

Keith

There is a new start up company called "Sheets for Seats" that will tie into the Ford Focus campaign.  They will sell very well to all those people that give up their houses to purchase a Focus.  Buy the stock now, get in on the ground floorboard.

John $Cash$ Locke
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: fdjake on April 15, 2008, 08:10:26 pm
To all you guy's talking about people losing their homes.....

DON'T WORRY.......Ford's got them COVERED TOO!!!!!!!!

http://www.cotswoldclassiccarclub.com/photo02032007100402/1173130975.jpg

Why buy real estate????  Show me a house that gets 30MPG!!! :biggrin :biggrin
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S
Post by: John_in_NC on April 16, 2008, 05:07:48 pm
To all you guy's talking about people losing their homes.....

DON'T WORRY.......Ford's got them COVERED TOO!!!!!!!!

http://www.cotswoldclassiccarclub.com/photo02032007100402/1173130975.jpg

Why buy real estate????  Show me a house that gets 30MPG!!! :biggrin :biggrin

Reminds me of my old vw van I had in college.
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S
Post by: bdub on April 18, 2008, 12:46:00 pm
If i thought Honda, Toyota, GM, and even Hyundai were going to do NOTHING, i'd say buy Ford stock.

I don't think those have "nothing" planned.

Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: rookieNYC on April 18, 2008, 08:50:04 pm
I've been posting for *months* to buy this market when the blood was in the streets..Had anyone got long when the end of the world was suppose to happen 2 months ago they would be up size...Buy em when they hate em...And Ford is hated,even though I don't own a single share of Ford..

Feast or famine type of markets right now..I don't think the smoke has cleared yet but Citigroup came out with great numbers..This market has made an incredible rebound..I own stocks and closed end funds that are up %5 in 3 trading sessions...Never mind my coveted QQQQ that has bounced $6 (%15) from its $41 low...Contrarian investing is the only way...

FDjake,I %100 agree with you...These kind of posts are about building wealth...Real estate is just another way to earn...Greed is good  :bobble
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: tatertot on April 18, 2008, 09:00:19 pm
fdjake, I sincerely hope that you are right and that you make a ton of money.
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: NDLM on April 18, 2008, 09:35:44 pm
I've been long on Boeing (since 96), Google (since 2005) and recently added Visa (V) after IPO at $59.00/share (I missed the boat on Master card though) ... to my porfolio.  So far ... I have been rewarded nicely/handsomely with these stocks. 

I don't buy on hype, speculation, prediction or rumor.   I do throughoutly research and I only invest in a company based on its valuation and fact.  I also believe that investing is a long term commitment, not a short term or timing the market.

My2cents!
 
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: rookieNYC on April 19, 2008, 06:01:32 am
I've been long on Boeing (since 96), Google (since 2005) and recently added Visa (V) after IPO at $59.00/share (I missed the boat on Master card though) ... to my porfolio.  So far ... I have been rewarded nicely/handsomely with these stocks. 


Not another person posting what they bought 2 years ago...LOL...These posts are worthless...Put your balls on the chopping block and say what you are buying today or tomorrow...Anyone can say they bought this or that 10 years ago...I don't buy any of it..No offense...
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S
Post by: BrianA06 on April 19, 2008, 09:59:05 am
I am thinking of some Berkshire Hathaway since the prices are down a bit.  What do you think it will do if Warren retires?
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: fdjake on April 19, 2008, 10:45:45 am
First off.......Honda and Toyota are ALREADY great car companies.  They will CONTINUE to be great car companies.  My investment is based on the single idea that in a relatively short period of time (2 - 3 years) Ford, which has THE HIGHEST quality ratings of ANY car maker INCLUDING HONDA AND TOYOTA will JUST DO BETTER THAN THEY HAVE IN THE PAST.  They don't have to BEAT Honda or Toyota they just have to BEAT FORD'S PAST DISMAL HISTORY!!  Like Rookie said.......Contrarian investing (going against the crowd) is the way to invest.  Ford stock WILL RISE because they have a well thought out plan, they are executing that plan, and that plan is working.

I would also like to Publically Thank ROOKIE NYC for opening my eyes to the wonderful world of long term options!!

THANK YOU!!!!! :beer

I bought January 2010 Ford $7.50 calls a few weeks ago (1.20 to 1.35).  Those options represent 20,000 shares of Ford stock.  My plan is to hold the options and actually EXERCISE  them sometime near the January 2010 experation.   For anyone who doesn't understand options, they allow you to buy Ford stock at $7.50 right up until 2010 regardless of Fords price at that point.  So,  instead of spending $140,000 (20,000 shares of Ford stock at $7/share = $140K)    I am able to CONTROL the same 20,000 shares for a FRACTION of that $140,000..............  Just over $25,000 to be exact!!!   I am able to LEAVE $115,000 in my account to use for buying and selling real estate.  If my theory is proven correct.....I can convert those options to shares and either sell the stock or continue to hold it. 

In my experience these opportunites represent TREMENDOUS potential to increase your net worth in a relatively short period of time.  POUNCE ON THEM WHEN YOU CAN!!!

Again THANK YOU ROOKIE!!  I remember arguing with you a few times about stock market investments.  You have FORGOTTEN more about investing in stocks than I will ever know!!!  Thanks for the advice! ( I do listen)

The value this site brings it's users is immeasureable. 

Mine are on the block.....we will ALL see how it turns out.
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S
Post by: bdub on April 19, 2008, 11:57:58 am
Go, Fireman, Go!!!

I really want this to work out for you.  I wish I had $25k to put into Ford options...  I'm working on it.
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: phlemboy on April 19, 2008, 01:22:43 pm
As far as cars go, I've owned 17 domestic cars in my life. Each one broke down WAY too often. My current car is a Honda Accord. Bought it new in 2005. Not a peep out of it. The car before it was a 95' Camry. I bought it with 74k mi. on it and drove it to 150k mi. for 4 yrs. with no issues. Here's my point, a large % of domestic cars are made from foreign ( Japan, China etc..) parts. IMO, the increase in domestic reliability is in large part due to using foreign parts. It's going to take a long time for domestics to truly rival the LONG TERM RELIABILTY of Honda & Toyota overall. Show me that and a better price and perhaps I'd better faith in domestics. What good is a gas miser if you're fixing it frequently? You're just spending your money elsewhere.
    When it comes to college education. Here's my plan ( which is about 15 yrs. away). I'm saying to my kids, " Take out student loans in your name for all college costs. WHEN YOU FINISH, I'll pay off all the college loans. If you don't get a degree,  YOU PAY FOR THEM YOURSELF." I put myself through college. When you're paying your own money you'll do whatever it takes to pass the courses. The kids have nothing to lose and my money is not wasted. They also don't have to worry about working full time when in school.
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: fdjake on April 19, 2008, 02:09:56 pm
You bring up a VERY GOOD point.  Time and WORD OF MOUTH will tell if Ford has reached the same long term reliability levels as Honda and Toyota.  Ford's quality HAS risen to a level that, according to Consumer Reports "rivals Honda and Toyota."  The problem Ford has is they must convince buyers that they are a viable alternative.

To do this Ford recently hired Jim Farley as marketing President.  It may be of interest to note that Mr. Farley is credited with launching LEXUS as a brand in the USA in 1990.   

What you may not know is when Toyota launched LEXUS the Press said it would NEVER compete with the Luxury German brands such as Mercedes and BMW.   At the time, it was FAR from a given that LEXUS would succeed.  Farley launched what is now considered a "Classic" ad campaign.  Does anyone remember Infinity's ads that ran at the same time???  They had pictures of babbling brooks, moss covered rocks, basically.... WORTHLESS!!!!  LEXUS used it's marketing to SELL IT'S CARS!!!  Not some BS lifestyle.   It high lighted the REASONS people should actually BUY ONE!!!  It was a HUGE success.  After LEXUS,  Farley handled the SCION launch for Toyota.  A 180 degree departure from the premium Lexus brand.  Farley hit that one out of the park too!!!

Farley is now launching Ford's version of that LEXUS/SCION campaign.  It's called "DRIVE ONE"   This is CLASSIC Farley at his best.  Straight forward, DIRECT TO THE BUYER, no BS "lifestyle" ads.  Just a head on REASON TO BUY A FORD campaign.  In the ads Toyota and Honda drivers are given a Ford to use for a week.  They then pass the car on to a friend.  Ford is NOT using actors for this.   During Ford's research for this campaign they discovered that after actually DRIVING Ford's new products, over 80% said they would BUY a FORD.  These cars are VERY impressive.  For the first time in it's HISTORY Ford actually consulted with it's dealer body for advice on how to market these cars.  Farley used this same technique at TOYOTA with great success.

Remember one thing..................NO ONE..........NO ONE.... buys a Camry or Accord for the DRIVING EXPERIENCE!!  These cars are APPLIANCES.  If a car company can rival the reliablity of the Japanese and ADD to the driving experience THAT COMPANY WILL SELL CARS!!!!

Again......Fords competition is............FORD............If they simply DO BETTER than last year?????

The stock goes UP!!!!
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: phlemboy on April 19, 2008, 02:24:22 pm
It would be great if the domestics can reach that long term reliabilty of the foreign cars. But I think it may cost the domestic companies much more than their foregn competitors to do it.
One other thought, in tough economic times, people will probably tend to buy used, gas misers to save money or just fix the cars they have. I don't know how that impacts Ford's stock, but it should interesting to see how it all plays out.
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S
Post by: BrianA06 on April 19, 2008, 03:31:37 pm
I agree.  I cant see an increase in new car purchases during a recession.  Just like new house purchases.
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: fdjake on April 19, 2008, 06:50:54 pm
The question then becomes.............Does this recession last forever????

A recession is THE BEST thing that can happen to the new car business!!

WHAT?????  Pete, have you lost your marbles????

No.....You guy's have already hit on it.  As Phlemboy correctly pointed out....During a recession people KEEP their cars.  THEY DON'T BUY NEW ONE'S.    The beauty of that fact is, it eventually creates a HUGE PENT UP DEMAND for NEW CARS!!  This has occured in EVERY recession this country has ever had.

I have no idea as to exactly WHEN Ford will benefit from the current recession.  What I do know is this......I have just about 2 years to wait this recession out.  Even if we're STILL not out of it by then.  I will simply convert those options into stock (at $7.50/share)  and wait for the eventual turn.  Meanwhile Ford will continue to add new cars to their line up.  The new Focus is selling at 30% higher levels than the old one.  Edge/MKX sales are 20% over projections, The new FLEX hit's showroom's this summer.  Do you think it will sell better than the almost 10 year old EXPLORER???  Of coarse it will, recession or no recession.  Ford's numbers will be better because they have SUCKED so badly that this company could almost sell bicycles and put up better numbers than they have in the last 3 years.  Better or IMPROVING is what WALL St. will react to.  Once that fuse is lit, stand back.  Big Institutional Investors will buy this stock like it's going out of style as soon as they see a GLIMMER of a sustainable turn around at Ford.

The GREAT thing about recessions is historically, the very FIRST thing people buy at the END of that recession IS A NEW CAR!!!!  As already pointed out.....by keeping those older used cars to "ride out" the down turn,  future demand is GUARANTEED!!!!

I owned a successful used car dealership for 15+ years.  My family has been in the business for over 40.  You can almost set your watch to these cycles.  Cars are no longer LUXURY ITEMS.  They are necessities.
No matter how great the car, it eventually will wear out and need replacement.

Look at the TRENDS and buy your stocks based on what will happen TOMMORROW, not what headlines your reading TODAY!!!

One last point.......I laid it all out here for anyone who wants to read it.  It's HERO or ZERO, only time will tell.  BUT................remember these IDEAS, the IDEA is the seed!!!  You plant it and WAIT.  I have made a lot of money over the years going the SAME THING OVER and OVER.  This is one of those things.  When pieces of a huge puzzle start to get put together in a way that makes sense PAY ATTENTION TO THAT!!!  Ford is putting a puzzle together right now.  It's going better than MANY realize!!
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: NDLM on April 19, 2008, 09:50:11 pm
Not another person posting what they bought 2 years ago...LOL...These posts are worthless...Put your balls on the chopping block and say what you are buying today or tomorrow...Anyone can say they bought this or that 10 years ago...I don't buy any of it..No offense...

Believe it or not really doesn't matter to me.  The point I was trying to make was NOT to guess, or speculate the market.  If one is so good at predicting the market or guessing it will go up 300 points one day and down another, then that person should already be a Billionaire instead of sitting here yapping or predicting the market up or down ... No offense...
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: phlemboy on April 19, 2008, 11:43:44 pm
I can see the point of buying new car stock now and wait for the BOOM. People will feel the need to reward themselves for all their time of "hardship". The question remains, which car company will be best positioned to capitalize. I feel the companies that dominated before will have an advantage.
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: rookieNYC on April 20, 2008, 04:26:57 am
Again THANK YOU ROOKIE!!  I remember arguing with you a few times about stock market investments.  You have FORGOTTEN more about investing in stocks than I will ever know!!!  Thanks for the advice! ( I do listen)

Nice way to play it...


NDLM,
  You have no idea what I have earned this year..I speak often with poster *allagash*...He can tell you that I bought size on the QQQQ and many other closed end funds that I posted here during the bloodbath..Your post was pointless and like I said post something of value...Don't get your panties in a bunch..

Also fwiw NDLM I get paid probably 10x-20x your annual salary to do exactly that , speculate..And so do the sharpest minds on wall street...Now post something of value and enough of the "I bought GOOG in 2005"...I make bold predictions because thats what I get paid to do...And if you look at my old posts I have hit the mark every time...Listen and earn...
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: NDLM on April 20, 2008, 07:43:29 am
Also fwiw NDLM I get paid probably 10x-20x your annual salary to do exactly that , speculate..

Again, your guru wall street expertise is speculation.  Speculation and prediction is a very nice way to investing LOL...  Listen from a wall street guru making prediction and speculation is the best way to invest... LOL.

If I am not mistaken from reading your posts, you are some of type hedge fund manager managing and investing investors' money.  FYI, I have people like you working for me.  If I don't like the way they handle my porfolio or if I know that they speculate or predict the market, do you know what I would do?  I would get rid of them in a heart beat.  Now ... who will listen?... No offense!
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: fdjake on April 20, 2008, 09:00:49 am
NDLM,

You and I have a lot in common.  I made the exact same comments about Rookie that you have.
I'm not knocking you in anyway.  But..........I have to tell you.....Rookie knows of what he speaks!!

He may sound cocky at times but what I'm finally coming to realize is HE HAS TO BE COCKY in the business he's in!  As soon as he starts doubting himself it's GAME OVER.  This is nothing like investing the way you and I do it.  I understand your points completely.  They're good ones.  I can tell you from listening to Rookie for well over a year now that he is right on his predictions with an astonishing rate of reliability.

You can be successful doing the same thing 10 different ways.  I'm sure you are very successful investing your way.  Rookie does it his way and HAS made some very bold preditions here that proved correct.  I'm not talking about big broad economic trend predictions, I'm talking about VERY specific market movement predictions and WHEN they would occur.  I've been investing my own money for over 20 years.  It takes a LOT to impress me. I have to say, I'm impressed with Rookie.

You can LEARN a LOT from this guy, don't make the mistake I made and write him off as just another talking heasd from Wall Street.  Keep track of his posts, they offer a lot of insight.   Believe me.....your posts and my old posts are almost interchangable.  I too believe that 90% of Wall St. "experts" are half a step above used car salesmen (ex- used car dealer here) After a while I came to the conclusion that Rookie is VERY smart, AND.... he's willing to give us his insights into markets!!!!!!!  You can USE that info.
I'm not saying you should stop doing what your doing,  just don't dismiss his insights. 

It all comes done to TOOLS.  Each one does a different job, no single tool does everything.  Having access to as many tools as possible makes doing ANY job easier.  Having access to the members of REI CLUB has certainly helped my investing in real estate, and stocks.
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: d_sbrown on April 20, 2008, 09:05:47 am
One thing for those new to options to know is that their value drops over time.  If all else is equal, that money that is invested in options disappears as you close with the experation date.

Owning options can be a great way to make a play with limited risk, but make sure you understand how time affects value.  Options are often presented as a sure way to make money, but the vast majority of options expire worthless.

Example of fdjake's purchase as I understand it.


     Option cost    =   $1.20 for a $7.50 option
IF
      price goes to $15.00 and he excersises his option
    Then ...   He buys at $7.50 sells at $15 and makes $7.50 minus $1.20 or $6.30
     If he had owned them outright he would have made the full $7.50.

IF
      Price goes down his option expires worthless and he is out the $1.20 but never more than that.

IF
       Price stay at $7.50  the option expires worthless and the $1.20 is lost.
  
In fact the price must rise more than his $1.20 investment for him to make money by excersizing the contract.

If the market is still down and the option is converted to stock at $7.50 at expiration, then the stock will have a basis of $8.70 regardless of where the price is at at the time.

Correct me if I'm wrong, puts and calls make my head hurt, and I have mostly only used them in commodities.

DB
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: fdjake on April 20, 2008, 09:27:46 am
You are EXACTLY right.

I look at this as a $25,000 insurance policy on 20,000 shares of Ford stock.

As d_sbrown correctly points out.....by 2010 if Ford stock is not above the $7.50 strike price my $25,000 is gone.  That's the RISK in this strategy.  The stock did close at $7.45 on Friday.

My feeling is that by 2010 Ford, which is still on track for a 2009 return to profitablility, will be higher IF.....and that's where the risk is.....IF....they post profits in 2009.  Wall Street has NO FAITH in Ford what so ever.  If Ford does execute they'll be on EVERY major business magazine, newspaper, and financial news show you can imagine.  This will (and has in the past with CHYRSLER) FURTHER increased the companies turn around as the media BLITZ brings in even MORE buyers to those showrooms to see "THE TURN AROUND CAR COMPANY"

Guy's remember what happens in the MEDIA when a story like this occurs!!  IT'S COVERED LIKE THE HOUSING CRASH.  They'll blow the Ford turn around out of proportion just like they blow EVERYTHING else out!!  But that's GREAT for shareholders. 
The difference is I'LL BE SELLING TO ALL THOSE PEOPLE WATCHING & READING THOSE STORIES.  You MUST be ahead of the HERD to make REAL MONEY investing like this.  I know Rookie's gonna break my b*lls for saying this but it's the truth.......I made this EXACT same investment in Chrysler in 1991.  They had fallen to single digits, they were dead and buried according to the "experts"  The stock went from $9/share to $110/share when Mercedes bought out the then EXTREMELY PROFITABLE Chrysler Corp.  You could have played this EXACT same trade THE FIRST TIME in the early 1980's when Iacocca brought Chrysler back from the dead.  Same story, same incredible return for share holders!!!

This is not rocket science.

Look at the TOP TRADERS on Wall St.   They just published a list of the top 10 last week.  They almost ALL shorted BANKS and HOUSING two or more years ago!!!   That sounds like a NO BRAINER now.  But at that time these guy's must have been looked at like they were OUT OF THEIR MINDS!!!  Those banks and hoome builders were making RECORD profits!!  The HERD was piling into these stocks like this would NEVER end.  Well it ended all right. 

Cripes that nit wit........ JIM CRAMER........on his JANUARY 2007 show BEGGED his audience to buy Goldman Sacs??????  The worlds top traders were already SHORT those banks for over a year when THE HERD JUMPED in.  In early 2007 Goldman was over $235/share!!!  It now trades at $179 :shocked  NICE CALL JIM!!!!

Now we have FORD........DEAD, DONE, BURIED, OUT OF TOUCH, CAN'T COMPETE.  That's what the HERD SAYS........Here's what the facts say......

Historic, LANDMARK, UAW contract that for the first time allows FORD to hire like HONDA and TOYOTA hire.  No more $60/hr grass cutters at Ford.  Also....FORD just handed a check for $3 billion  to the UAW.  NOW the UNION has to pay for IT'S MEMBERS retirement health care benefits.  Ford no longer contributes!!

Consumer reports refused to give TOYOTA it's favored maker status due to reoccuring QUALITY problems and unpredicted re-calls of TOYOTA PRODUCTS.   WHO received the HIGHEST marks, lowest number of recalls and BEST QUALITY AWARD????????...........FORD!!!

Ford sales in CHINA......THE BIGGEST FUTURE MARKET FOR CARS ON PLANET EARTH increased 47% LAST QUARTER to 87,000 CARS......FOLKS....UP 47% LAST QUARTER!!!!!! Thats 350,000 CARS A YEAR with an expected increase of 20% YEARLY for the market as a whole!!!  When your DOUBLING the annual projected rate of increase and your doing that QUARTERLY........your doing something right!!!!

Ford market share EXPLODED in Europe last year, up 9.9%!!! THAT'S MARKET SHARE, not sales!!   If they eventually get anywhere NEAR those numbers in this country this stock will make a lot of people very wealthy.  Guess where all those great FORD OF EUROPE cars are coming in the next 2 to 3 years?????   RIGHT here to the good ole U.S.A.   GLOBAL PRODUCT PRODUCTION!!!  No more different Focus for USA, different focus for Europe, different for Australia.  This is what FORD was doing until Alan Mullaly got there.  He asked why FORD's sold so well in EUROPE and not here???  Then he went to Engalnd and DROVE the European Focus, and Fusion.  He and was BLOWN AWAY by the differences.  He actually promoted the man responsible for those great selling cars to head Fords GLOBAL PRODUCT DIVISION.  In the next 2 -3 years you we see this stategy play out.   WATCH what Happens!!!!

YOU HAVE TO BE IN BEFORE THE HERD!!!!!!!!
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: rookieNYC on April 20, 2008, 12:02:14 pm
However, I don't bet on the market today at all.  As a matter of fact, I had safely relocated my assets into money market, and others a month ago.

This is a post from NDLM not long ago...So which is it?..Are you owning stocks or in a money market account..Make up the story for the day...

Fwiw every single person who owns stocks,mutual funds of any kind is speculating in some form..I also highly doubt you would ever be fortunate enough to have gained acceptance financially to qualify to invest in a hedge fund..

I take the time to post my *feeling* on the market so others can learn and benefit..I try to post only *useful* things that people can benefit from financially..I won't carry on this pissing contest with you..



fdjake,
  Sounds like you are doing great..Just have patience..That is truly the key..
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: fdjake on April 20, 2008, 12:48:07 pm
Thanks Rookie,  I appreciate your insight.....as always!!
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: NDLM on April 21, 2008, 11:55:10 am
fdjake

Your points are well taken.  Let's move on. 

Regards!

I also highly doubt you would ever be fortunate enough to have gained acceptance financially to qualify to invest in a hedge fund..

Again, you are speculating without knowing who I am, what I do and how my financial situation looks like.  I guess speculation is what you are good at, so let's just leave it there.

In the United States, for an individual to be considered an accredited investor, they must have a net worth of at least one million US dollars or have made at least $200,000 each year for the last two years ($300,000 with his or her spouse if married) and have the expectation to make the same amount this year. This rule came into effect in 1933 by way of the Securities Act of 1933.
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accredited_investor)

To have a net worth of at least one million US dollars or the income at least $200,000 each year for the last two years ($300,000 with his or her spouse if married) might sound impossible to some people, however there are others don't consider these numbers are hard to achieve at all.

Anyway, let's move on.

Regards!
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S
Post by: BrianA06 on April 21, 2008, 03:49:51 pm
A house, a car, and a few bucks in the bank and you are there.  At least in this area of NJ.

Taxes are a bitch though.  $12k a year and growing.
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: kdhastedt on April 21, 2008, 04:01:05 pm

Blue is bad....Blue is evil!

Keith
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: rookieNYC on April 22, 2008, 06:09:42 am
NDLM,
 The responses you give show how inexperienced you are when it comes to asset management...An accredited investor can stay at Fidelity,Etrade...The type of asset management field I'm in takes *much more* liquid to be invested...But that's irrelevant,point being is stop tailoring your posts for the current market conditions..I quickly noticed how you side stepped that part of the post with your run on response how you are worth a few bucks..
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S
Post by: BrianA06 on April 22, 2008, 03:50:00 pm
My dad is better than your dad thread now.

Everyone talks big online and they all live in their parent's basement and drive a Chevy.  Pointless to argue like that with text. 

But if you want to meet behind the gym after school . . . :)
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: fdjake on April 22, 2008, 04:32:21 pm
AGREED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: fdjake on April 24, 2008, 05:16:41 am
DETROIT THIS MORNING......

Ford posted a $100 million PROFIT for the first quarter compared to a $282 million LOSS in last years first quarter!!!!
Ford BLOWS past Wall Streets earnings estimates!!!!  Posts a 5 cent/share PROFIT when the Street expected a 16 cent/share LOSS!!!!

The point here is Ford is making these improvements in a TERRIBLE economy for new car sales.  Within 2 years, Fords vehicle line up will be 70% NEW!!  The cars they are coming out with are going to be HUGE winners for Ford simply because they'll be vastly improved when compared with what Ford has been selling in the past!!!

This year alone will see the new Ford Flex, Lincoln MKS, and a Re-designed and improved Fusion coming early next year.

These opportunites come along VERY RARELY.  It's all lining up to propel Ford into a vastly improved profitablility.  Share holders will be handsomely rewarded for their patience!!

The head line say's it all............... IT'S JUST STARTING!!!!!
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: 4444 on April 24, 2008, 02:56:44 pm
So I am trying to understand something here. Hopefully one of you will chime in. For Fdjake to profit from this 'investment' he will need to have the common stock of ford go to 7.50 plus 1.20 or 8.70 before he profits. Is this correct? So right now the stock price is at 8.38 so he is still negative? I am trying to understand options.
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: fdjake on April 24, 2008, 05:04:04 pm
The options I paid $25,500 for a few weeks ago closed today with a value of $62,000.

Ford stock closed at $8.40 today.  But because NONE OF THE EXPERTS on Wall St. saw this earnings surprise coming, Ford's stock options went NUTS.

The VALUE in this type of investing is not in turning $25K into $62K in a few weeks.  The VALUE comes from being able to BUY those 20,000 shares of Ford stock in January of 2010 when Ford's Turn around is reaping HUGE benefits and ALL of Wall St. is piling in.  Sometime THEN I'll exercise my option to BUY those 20,000 shares of Ford stock at $7.50/share.
By then Ford should be on every national business magazine being touted as the TURN AROUND OF THE CENTURY.  The media will BLOW this completely out of proportion, like they do with everything.  I'll be selling my shares to  the "cattle" that buy their stocks based on what they read in the Wall Street Journal and Money magazine.   

THIS IS HOW REAL WEALTH IS CREATED!!!  It's done by doing the COMPLETE OPPOSITE of what everyone else is doing.  You watch, the Mutual funds and Jim Cramers of the world will be screaming BUY BUY BUY when Ford is at $30/share.  At that point my $25,500 worth of long term Ford options would represent $600,000.   In 1991 Chrysler went from $9/share to $68/share in a 3 year period.  This story has happened OVER and OVER at car companies around the world.

I've been through this before with Chrysler and made a TON of money.  It's a remake of the SAME MOVIE!!

The car business is BEAUTIFUL because YOU KNOW what manufacturors are coming out with YEARS before those cars hit the streets.  I look at power trains, styling, economy, and technology.  A famous automobile turn around specialist once said ....

"There is NOTHING that can fix a broken car company faster than GREAT PRODUCT."   

Chrysler did it twice.....once in the early 80's and again in the early 90's.

Ford was all done in 1982 ($1.50/share), then came out with the Taurus and saw the stock rise by a WHOPPING 2000% in 5 years.

GM's been in this boat before.

Porsche.....the most profitable car company IN THE WORLD was at $20/share (German) in 1991.  That stock went to $300/share 5 years later.

VW.....$14/share (German) in 1993...5 years later...$150/share

Car businesses DO THIS,  it's in their DNA.  Learn from this Ford situation and you guy's could repeat this 3 or 4 times in your life.  It ain't rocket science.

The KEY to this investment is ALAN MULALLY.  Do some research on him, look into what this guy did for BOEING while he was there.  He's using the EXACT same cookbook now at FORD.  There is a TON of information about this guy on the internet.  Check it out before it's too late.
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: 4444 on April 24, 2008, 09:05:00 pm
Would you consider selling your options now and just buying the common?
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: rookieNYC on April 24, 2008, 09:09:38 pm
The options I paid $25,500 for a few weeks ago closed today with a value of $62,000.

I forgot which poster here said that they couldn't buy a sandwich from stock gains but they could from cashflow..LOL..I truly love the markets...I'm going to start a thread on closed end funds for income based investors..

What I do and what fdjake is doing is highly risky..People should know that but all the same you don't put up what you can't afford to lose..And investors playing with scared money always lose...

Fdjake is behaving like a pro..He did his research,he placed his bet and now the waiting game starts..I'm in a similar scenario with the QQQQ and many closed end funds and reits that I bought at the bloodiest possible time..My past post reveal all my buys and recommendations..Buy em when they hate em...

Great play fdjake...Size !
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: fdjake on April 25, 2008, 07:37:29 am
Rookie,

I've been watching that U.S. dollar call you made a while back!!  SPOT ON, as usual :beer

For those of you who missed it.  Just as interest rates were being lowered like garage sale prices on a Sunday afternoon,  Rookie mentions that he thought the FED was finished lowering rates due to inflation issues.  Remember...at this time the dollar is falling like a rock.

Well, look at what's going on.  Prices are going through the roof on EVERYTHING but housing, and it looks like the Fed IS done lowering.
 
Rookie was right.... AGAIN!!

PLEASE....start the closed end funds thread!!

Oh......and NO, I won't be selling these options for a short money gain.
The plan is to let Ford's recovery gain momentum and sell when everyone else is piling in.
Ford's not out of the woods just yet.  I fully expect a few more losing quarters before they complete the turnaround.  That won't bother me in any way.  If the stock gets over sold like it did in March, I'll simply add to my postion.

My pay off is 2 to 3 years out on this.  Remember........In December of 2009 if Ford stcok is trading at $16/share I can buy that same stock for $7.50.
I fully intend to ride this.  the biggest mistake most new investors make is they sell their winners WAY to early.  If Ford does what I think it could.  I would not be surprised to see this stock in the mid 30's or higher within 3 years.  If I sold my options now I would have a gross profit of $36,500.
If I wait it out and Ford simply continues their already estiblished turn around, my options, when converted to stock could then be worth over $600,000.   My estimate of $30/share is based on a conservative comparison of Ford's stock price through out the history of the company.  It has been much higher than $30.  It may be of some interest to note that FORD has $45 BILLION in cash on hand and posted a $100 million PROFIT and is currently at $8.50/share while GM has $30 Billion in cash on hand and posted a LOSS but trades at $21/share. 

My feeling is Alan Mulally is setting a foundation for Ford that is comparable to what  Wendelin Wiedeking did at Porsche.  When Mr. Wiedeking took over at Porsche it was nearly bankrupt.  He did EXACTLY what Mulally is doing at Ford.  He ASKED people WHAT IS A PORSCHE??? The answer??  THE 911!!!

For years Porsche had been screwing around with water cooled cars.  928's, 944's and 924's... they had NO RESALE VALUE, and lowered the brands image in the eyes of buyers.  Wiedeking's answer???? Drop the water cooled cars from the lineup and put money into the 911. The classic 911 was the car that BUILT Porsche.  They came up with the 993 Carrera.  IT WAS A SMASH HIT!!  They followed that up with the BOXSTER.  Mid engined brother of the LEGENDARY 550 Spyder's that  CRUSHED bigger more powerful cars on road racing curcuits around the world in the 1950's.  THAT DID IT!!!!  2 GREAT cars, and PORSCHE could NOT keep up with demand!!!

RESULTS????

Porsche's stock went from $20/share to over $300/share in 5 years!!

"There isn't a problem a car maker faces that can not be resolved with GREAT product."

Again......this is how WEALTH is created.
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: abc123 on April 25, 2008, 08:29:09 am
I sell Fords at a big dealership in San Antonio. Come on down and DRIVE ONE!
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S
Post by: Liquidity on April 28, 2008, 09:16:10 am
Rookie,



  If I sold my options now I would have a gross profit of $36,500.
 


Im new to options but,
If its an option and the price is 7.50 + 1.20 aren't you in for 8.70 really ?? so you haven't really made a profit YET,  until it climbs over 8.70 ??



Great stock pick by the way  :beer
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: Tien on April 28, 2008, 10:04:50 am
Apparently Kirk Kerkorian the billionaire investor also thinks about Ford the same way fdJake does.


Kirk just announced he will looking to increase his ownership of ford to 5.6%.
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: Dave T on April 28, 2008, 01:19:14 pm
Liquidity,

fdjake probably paid $1 per share for each option contract he purchased.  I am guessing that the price of the option closed at $2.43 the other day, for a 143% return on his investment if he had liquidated. 

fdjake purchased the right to buy Ford stock at 7.50 per share at some time before his option expires in Jan 2010.  He paid an option premium of $1 so his total investment in Ford stock will be $8.50 per share when he decides to exercise his option.

As long as Ford is trading above $8.50 per share before his option expires, fdjake is "in the money".  He is betting that the price of the stock will be much higher and he seems to be planning to hold his stock for the long term once he exercises his option to purchase.

If he doesn't want to actually own the stock, fdjake can sell his option position to another investor for whatever price the market will bear.  Many investors will sell half of their option position once the option premium has doubled just to recover their investment.  They then let the other half of their position ride for infinite returns because they have no money invested in the position.

I was a little more speculative than fdjake.  I bought the Jan 2010 $15 call options at $0.35 per share.  Today, the option is trading at $0.57 per share.  I am also betting that the share price will be much higher than the $8.20 per share that it is trading at today.  If Ford stock gets to $9 per share within the next six months, I will probably liquidate my position for 100% profit or better.  In my case, time works against me.  I am betting on a quick move in the next six months to lock in my profits.  fdjake is betting on a long term trend upward, and he has already locked in his profit if he has guessed correctly about the direction of the trend.
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: SugaB28 on May 04, 2008, 09:39:59 am
RookieNYC, did you find it difficult beginning your re career in nyc?  Were you overwhelmed by the high prices or the commercial properties available?

Suga
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: rookieNYC on May 04, 2008, 12:13:17 pm
SugaB28,
 I have not done any recent purchases in NYC or the 5 boroughs in the last 5 years or more...We do own 2 commercial properties in Long Island City but as for recent purchases we have bought upstate NY...


fdjake,
  How do you like the US dollar rally...Did you see the recent Bloomberg article on how traders are buying the US $ in size...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=anL286vy_iZM&refer=worldwide

Also Buffet is coming out saying the worst is over for the credit markets and Wall street.....Buy em when they hate em...Hope everyone made size money...Where was the *supposed* market meltdown guys?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7382714.stm

fdjake I tried to start another closed end fund based thread and it was immediately taken down..I dont know why..
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: tatertot on May 04, 2008, 01:15:01 pm
Argentinians are swapping their pesos for dollars and moving their money out of Argentina. We are talking about a lot of money here, so they will soak up a lot of the free floating dollars that no one wants.

That's got to help prop up the dollar.
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: fdjake on May 04, 2008, 02:12:21 pm
Rookie,

I been watching the UUP you told us about months ago!!!  That index is just moving up everyday.

GREAT CALL!!!

As you predicted, it looks like the interest rate drops are over.

I completely agree with you.  The U.S. dollar WILL continue to move up because we are in and have BEEN in a recession.  The rest of the world is just now entering that phase.  The money that was LEAVING this country will be flowing back as more and more people see foreign economies hitting the skids.

Thanks for the advice....kepp it coming!!!

Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: smashmouth on May 05, 2008, 11:12:39 am
ok, so this topic spiked my interest. I'm goint to buy a VERY small amount, maybe 500 shares. 

I do not have any options experience. Do you recommend that I buy out-right?

thanks for your help.
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S
Post by: Pslreale on May 07, 2008, 10:37:05 am
Is this a Feeble Attempt to inflate Ford's Stock??   :cool
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: fdjake on May 07, 2008, 02:33:41 pm
Yea,  you guessed it....my cover is blown.

I'm gonna make millions by posting a thread on a REAL ESTATE site that has had 1600+ views and probably 2 people who actually bought the stock!!!!!

WOW....that was EASY MONEY!!!

I'm not doing real estate anymore.  I'm going to rule the International Money Markets from my home PC, by using REI Club's web site!!

Ha, hahahhahhaahhahahhahhahhahhahahhahahhahhhaaa

My new name is........................... Dr. EVIL!!!!
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S
Post by: Liquidity on May 08, 2008, 12:11:21 am
Is this a Feeble Attempt to inflate Ford's Stock??   :cool

someone please do something about this guy.  even  though his picture is worth a good laugh his posts and intentions on here a waste of time.
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: mcprops on May 08, 2008, 04:25:43 am
Quote
I'm gonna be a millionaire by posting a thread that has had 1600+ views and probably 2 people who actually bought the stock!!!

Make that 3!
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: rookieNYC on May 08, 2008, 05:41:22 am
Make that 4 people,well sort of....I traded it last week and sold size at $8.42...I took .23 on the trade but I had a boatload..Way too many to post here...It definitely bothered me to see F going up like it *was* without me getting any of those free dollars..I'm watching for a possible swing play on it but the markets seem bothered by $123 per barrel oil all of a sudden...Other than that sticking to my high yield debt plays...As the banking situation improves spreads will tighten and high yield debt plays will increase in value as they have been doing for weeks..Buy em when they hate em..

I'm long ESD,IGR,JRO,PBF,PFN,PGH,PGP,PHD,PHF,PHK,PTY,RIT,SPHIX,FAGIX,FFRHX...median yield of this basket is about %11....Pays monthly dividends....And they have gained about %20 or more from their Jan 2008 lows... :bobble

That list is what I bought into the bloodbath earlier in the year..I also posted my entries and sent private messages to propertymanger and allagash providing details of my entries *as I bought them*...I'm also long massive size on the QQQQ avg price low 42 area, this too was detailed in earlier posts..
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: realnew on May 08, 2008, 06:11:38 am
That would be 5 buyers... I've liked Ford for a long time... more than 1-2 years. Search my post somewhere about their turnaround... remember that slogan "quality is job 1."

Everything is cyclical, people. The key is knowing where in the cycle you are.

Rookie, FD, when I'd previously owned F, I bought it in my ROTH and held it. It seems like the better way to play this now is options...

Am I going it about it the poor man's way by D.C.A. into long-term holds?

Thanks.

When do we start the stock investor's forums? lol
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: Dave T on May 08, 2008, 09:06:30 am
If it is to be a long term hold, DCA is the way to go.  I suggest buying one-third of your intended position now, then one-third on the next dip, then the last third when it dips again.  In the absence of external market forces, dips usually happen just after the stock goes ex-dividend.
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: fdjake on May 08, 2008, 11:01:49 am
Real new,

It all depends on your situation.  I've been buying the long term options thanks to Rookie's advice.  He correctly pointed out that inorder for me to buy 20,000 shares of Ford stock I would have to lay out somewere around $165,000 in cash.  The problem I have with this is,  I could use that cash for my rehabbing investments which consistantly return around 40% for me.

By using Rookie's method of buying LEAPS (long term options)  I was able to purchase the right to buy 20,000 shares of Ford stock all the way out to January 2010 at $7.50/share for only $25,000!!
At that time I'll exercise those options and buy the stock.  Meanwhile, I'll continue to buy houses with the $140,000 I DIDN'T have to spend on long term Ford stock.

The key here folks is I FIRMLY believe that not only will Ford return to profitability,  but they will become a HUGE success.

Alan Mullaly isn't FIXING Ford.  He's building an AMERICAN version of TOYOTA.  Do some research.  This guy used TOYOTA as a model for BOEING when he was there.  He is VERY WELL RESPECTED at Toyota.  It's widely known that Toyota OPENLY assisted him in redesigning Boeings manufacturing processes.  By using the Toyota engineering and manufactoring model, Boeing shaved 30% off the time it took to construct a passenger jet.   Their stock went from $20/share to $110.

What's being done at Ford right now will be talked about for DECADES in business schools. 

Someone book mark this post.  I can easily see Ford stock at $60 to $70/share within the next 5 years.

Folks......That's HUGE return

Porsche did it.  1000% return

Chrysler did it.   TWICE!!  1000% return

Ford did it (in the 80's)  1000% return

VW did it.  1000% return

These opportunities DO NOT come around everyday or every year.
When they do JUMP on them.
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: rookieNYC on May 08, 2008, 02:22:00 pm
Dollar cost averaging is smart and extremely effective over all time frames..The long term investor always has an advantage using DCA..*But* make sure you aren't chasing good money after bad by adding to a losing battle..How does one know?...I like to use DCA on the index etf's more so than a stock..When I say index etf's I mean the SPY,QQQQ,DIA...When I trade a stock I want to be right asap...I don't want a waiting game,I want a cushion of $$$ for me to sit on...But if I'm trading the index (QQQQ,SPY) I typically have a good feel for the range of wiggle room I can tolerate before I stop out..The scenario changes drastically between how many shares you are holding..No matter the investor or trader everyone has a line of pain they don't want crossed...

To answer Realnew...
Like fdjake said it all depends on your personal preference...
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S
Post by: Liquidity on June 24, 2008, 09:59:00 pm
So I am trying to understand something here. Hopefully one of you will chime in. For Fdjake to profit from this 'investment' he will need to have the common stock of ford go to 7.50 plus 1.20 or 8.70 before he profits. Is this correct? So right now the stock price is at 8.38 so he is still negative? I am trying to understand options.

hmmmm
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S
Post by: Liquidity on June 24, 2008, 10:02:24 pm
Would you consider selling your options now and just buying the common?




Ahhhh you bought the common and are lashing out
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: BrianA06 on October 09, 2008, 04:58:57 pm
So what do you think of those Ford options now?  Today I think I saw them at .60

Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: propertymanager on October 09, 2008, 05:24:36 pm
The big problem with Ford or any other auto company is that they might be allowed to declare bankruptcy.  I don't believe that the government will allow them to completely fail, but will they be allowed to declare bankruptcy and then reorganize?  If so, the common stock is wiped out.  If I was confident that Ford would not declare bankruptcy, I would buy some at these levels.  However, if we do enter a steep recession or depression, I am not at all confident that Ford (or any other domestic automaker) will buy cars.

Mike
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: justin0419 on October 09, 2008, 06:10:38 pm
The $2.50 Jan 10 options are so tempting at these levels.  They're priced at where the $7.50 Jan 10 options were a very short time ago when I was looking at doing this.  I agree though.  It appears to be a huge gamble right now.  We don't know where this bailout stuff will stop.  I think Mike's scenario is very realistic at this point.  As people buckle down, many will keep their current cars if they're paid off.  Others may get cars with better gas mileage, but something like a late 90's Accord/Camry/Corolla may be the car of choice rather than buying a brand new car in the current climate. 
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: fdjake on October 10, 2008, 07:49:24 am
So what do you think of those Ford options now?  Today I think I saw them at .60



I just bought another $60,000 worth.......That's what I think.

I'll ask what YOU think next week when those options are at $1.00 and that $60K is $100,000!!! 

Or I guess I could have purchased a home, rehabbed it, listed it for 6 months, went through 8 people to find ONE who could QUALIFY for a mortgage, then watched as a home inspector blows up the deal .....All to make what these options will pull within 7 to 10 days.

This market is setting up for a quick rally that will pull the faces off the shorts.

Watch....it's coming.....

And Brian......I'll be sure and let you know what I think.
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: propertymanager on October 10, 2008, 09:54:09 am
I put in an order to buy Ford at $2.10 and then I plan on selling a Nov. $3.00 covered call for $.60.  That will get me in the stock for $1.50.  I'm just playing this for a trade.  I still am not sure that Ford will be able to avoid bankruptcy. 

Mike
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S
Post by: dr_white on October 10, 2008, 12:37:19 pm
Another tidbit of advice is to consider the underlying necessities of what the company (Ford) produces (cars). Cars need tires and steel and rubber and plastic and upholstery and radios and glass and batteries etc. etc. Also, cars break down and need repairs and maintenance, i.e. lube, muffler and repair shops. If Ford does well, so will all of these contributing companies.
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: fdjake on October 10, 2008, 12:58:23 pm
Here's a nice company for ALL you guy's to take a long look at.....

COOPER TIRE

Here's the back story......

PROFITABLE COMPANY........made $315 MILLION last year.

Oil prices combined with explosive raw rubber prices absolutely KILLED this stock. 

Funny how things change.....

When raw rubber prices hit never before seen highs 2 years ago EVERYONE with an acre of land in Indonesia starting planting.  This, as usually has now lead to a GLUT of raw rubber supplies.  Combine that with a GLOBAL slowdown and rubber prices are droping like a rock.  The NEXT biggest part that goes into making a tire is OIL....Looks like OIL may lock LIMIT DOWN today!!!!!!

So...............what do we have here????  We have a PROFITABLE company (I'm sure they'll post a crappy quarter in NOV.)  BUT.....Cooper tire makes REPLACEMENT TIRES!!!!!!

These are the tires that people buy when the ECONOMY SUCKS and they have to replace their EXPENSIVE GOODYEARS inorder to get their car INSPECTED!!!

OH...one last thing......

THEY PAY A .42 CENT ANNUAL DIVIDEND, which at the current stock price of $6.50.share equals a rate of 5.30% WITHOUT ANY appreciation of the underlying stock price!!!

Take a look at a 3 year chart of Cooper Tire.  (CTB)

This is like picking up money off the floor!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

YOUR MISSING THE OPPORTUNITY OF YOUR LIFE TIMES!!!!

FORD is NOT going to file bankruptcy.......WHY?????

THEY CAN'T........These companies ARE NOT BANKS....Your all missing this..
The STOCK PRICE has NOTHING to do with the business model.  Ford secured lines of credit in 2006.  The stock price WILL NOT force a bankruptcy.  IF they DID file......THEY ARE DONE as a company.....NO ONE, NO ONE will buy a car from a BANKRUPT maker.  THEY KNOW THIS.  Mulally said TODAY....Bankruptcy is NOT an option for a car maker.

Imagine this scenerio.......

13% Inflation
21% Prime rate
13% Unemployment

This actually HAPPENED...it was called the 1970's  take a look at ford stock price during this time.....Then tell me their going bankrupt.....
SAME CIRCUS.....DIFFERENT CLOWNS.

http://www.wikinvest.com/stock/Ford_Motor_Company_(F)/WikiChart

Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: propertymanager on October 10, 2008, 03:17:23 pm
Quote
This actually HAPPENED...it was called the 1970's  take a look at ford stock price during this time.....Then tell me their going bankrupt.....
SAME CIRCUS.....DIFFERENT CLOWNS.

I hope you're right, I bought Ford at $2.10 today and the morons on the options exchange didn't execute my call order, even though I put the order in at the market (when it was 52 cents).  I may cancel that order and wait for Ford to go up if there is a rally next week and then sell the call (that would be a better play anyway).

Mike
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S
Post by: jmd_forest on October 21, 2008, 07:45:29 pm
Does everyone still feel the same about Ford after Kerkorian just dumped 7.3 million shares at a loss of about $500 million?

jmd_forest
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: rookieNYC on October 21, 2008, 08:12:58 pm
I was trying to avoid this topic but personally I feel it can only be bad news...Why on earth would Kerkorian take a $500 million loss on Ford at $2.15 a share???...There is simply no way to spin this into a positive..Kerkorian has gotten his b**** kicked in severely hard and severely fast with Ford...His exit on GM was flawless at $35 a share,so he is very much in the know..The issue from what I have read is that Ford will take double to triple the amount of years to turn around due to economic downturn..So Kerkorian is doubling down on his Las Vegas holdings that will likely rebound much more aggressively than Ford..IMHO Ford has always been and always will be a *highly speculative* play...If you have a decade you may do well,but it will be like watching grass grow..In fact grass will grow much faster than Ford..This is why I don't like making recommendations on buying individual stock,it's simply impossible to know what will happen..Whenever a stock is cheap its cheap for a reason,and when stocks get under $5 its like the kiss of death...
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: propertymanager on October 22, 2008, 06:39:13 am
In my opinion, this Ford play has nothing to do with cars and everything to do with the Government.  This is a bet that the government won't allow Ford to file bankruptcy and it's a risky bet.  Right now, everyone is being bailed out.  However, people on Main Street are angry (including me) and at some point bailout fatigue may cause the government to allow companies to fail once again.

My plan on Ford is to attempt to own the stock free by selling covered calls on it over the next few months.  I bought it at $2.10 and ended up selling the $3 covered calls at $.54, meaning that I'm in the stock at $1.56.  With a little luck, there will be a rally each month that will allow me to keep selling covered calls each month.  IF I could own the stock for free, then there's no real risk.  It's the same concept as buying rental properties at a HUGE discount.

Mike
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: fdjake on October 22, 2008, 07:54:07 am
Kirk didn't buy his Ford shares with CASH, he purchased the stock with LOANS from Bank of America.  In order to GET those loans he had to put his shares of MGM up as collateral.  He was about to LOSE those MGM shares in a margin call.

Here's the whole story....

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/oct2008/db20081021_531630.htm?campaign_id=rss_daily
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: rookieNYC on October 22, 2008, 07:58:39 am
fdjake,
  Lets call it what it is...Kerkorian *dumped* Ford...He took a massive stop on a losing trade...Now he is trying to unwind the rest of his position..Mazda is also following suit...No trader takes a $500 million loss if he is the slightest inclination a bounce is imminent..No trader I have ever met in my life...kerkorian has plenty of funds to meet margin calls and he chose to LOSE and not double down yet again on a losing investment...there is no spinning this move...
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: fdjake on October 22, 2008, 08:33:16 am
Rookie,

I respect your opinion here, and you may be proven correct. BUT.....

You and I had some very heated debates a few years ago when I predicted EXACTLY what we are now living through.  We are entering a DEFLATIONARY DEPRESSION.  ALL asset classes are falling and this has ALL happened before.  It was called THE GREAT DEPRESSION.

When I PM'd you this summer to explain that I was buying puts in the USO (shorting the OIL market) because demand for oil would slow as our economy slowed.  I further explained that I thought CHINA would take a BEATING as Amercans stopped BUYING, (remember...it was CHINA that the experts said was causing oil to rocket) I mentioned that ridership on public transportation was at all time highs, people were trading in their SUV's for Honda Civic's, bike sales were soaring, in other words...people were doing ANYTHING in their power to AVOID using OIL.  You strongly warned me AGAINST  THAT investment.  You mentioned a bullish chart pattern. 

I am up 10 TIMES on those USO puts and there is NO END IN Sight for a bottom in oil. 

There are very few people here who's opinions I respect more than yours.  So far FORD stock has been KILLED, but Kirk Kerkorian's sale does not change the underlying theory.......

OBAMA, like it or not...IS the next President...IT'S DONE.  This isn't OPINION....IN EVERY economic disaster in HISTORY the party in power GETS THE BOOT.. This time will be NO DIFFERENT!!!!
The DEMS and their new President will give GM and FORD whatever loans they require to KEEP them alive thorugh this BUST.  Time is all Ford needs.....without that TIME, they ARE DEAD!!!

My bet is Ford gets the money through the Goverment, and that money,  BUYs them time.  If it gets so bad that even TIME won't help???
I'll be buying GUNS at that point because the economy will have collapsed.

Rookie.....you are one of the smartest people I know...you could very easily be right on Ford.  I also appreciate that you took the time to warn me about the perils of this investment.  But......sometimes you just have to go with your gut....in my experience, and without exception, EVERY SINGLE TIME I have ignored that GUT feeling, I have regretted it.  It may sound overly simplistic, but I go with what works for me.  I've been wrong in the past and so have you.  It's part of the process, LEARNING from those mistakes is a HUGE part of successful investing over the LONG HAUL.  If Ford survived the disasterous 1970's with Oil prices at never before seen highs, unemployment in double digits, interest and mortgage rates in the teens, I feel strongly, with Goverment backing, they will survive this..
We will all see....

Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: rookieNYC on October 22, 2008, 12:46:21 pm
You strongly warned me AGAINST  THAT investment.  You mentioned a bullish chart pattern. 

If I remember correctly when we had the conversation oil was at $96 per barrel..So I was correct to stay out of oils way for the time being..To sit here today and say you  were short USO from $96 oil and you held short through $147 oil is impossible for me to fathom...I also don't hold much credit to positions I read about months after they were supposedly taken on..I live in the here and now and I don't feel that many of the posts that are displayed here represent the true entries and exits of positions spoken about..Its very easy to say I bought the QID at $40 and sold it at $80..Who is going to know???...After the fact trading is for dreamers,I'm a pro I live in the present time..Not what I dream up overnight..I respect your opinion and you are clearly a knowledgeable guy but we as traders make mistakes...Its just part of what we do..There is no harm in saying yes I muffed up on Ford it turned out to be a real POS pig...And I think we would all respect you for being *RESPONSIBLE* and up front..Rather than to say months after Frod freefell that you secretly bought puts or magically hedged yourself,like you or anyone else knew the markets would crater and Ford would follow..There is no harm to man up...

Not looking to sling mud nor stir the pot..This is what I do and I can poke holes in many things I read here and I don't...For a big mouth Italian (me) I keep my opinion to myself..
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: fdjake on October 22, 2008, 02:30:32 pm
I NEVER said I bought puts in Ford......I have NEVER owned PUTS in Ford.

AND.....Oil was over $120 when I sent you that PM.  I still have your response.

I'm not arguing with you here.  I respect your opinions too much for that. 

Ford's been a DOG...no doubt about it...but it's no where NEAR over.
For someone who's holding times are mearured in minutes, this is NOT a good way to make money.  BUT.................the ONLY advantage I have is in the fact that I DON'T have to be TRADING all the time.  I can SIT and wait.

Nothing has changed with regards to Ford.  The MARKET sucks, that's true, and it's going to get worse.
I know you trade professionally, but I didn't start doing this 2 years ago either.  I've been investing EXACTLY this way for over 18 years. IT WORKS FOR ME.  It's not about being right or wrong, or about admitting your right or wrong.....it's about having a PLAN and WORKING that plan.   How in hell do you think I learned this......I LEARNED it by making the mistake of buying into OTHER PEOPLES OPINIONS and BAILING OUT of positions that would have made me TON'S of money.  You only do that so many times before you LEARN.  You LEARN or you LEAVE.  I don't LEAVE.

If you remember correctly....I DIDN'T BUY FORD because KIRK Kerkorian was buying it.  I was in LONG before he was even IN.  So why then would I SELL it when he does???  This is cut and dried..he was about to lose a HUGE stake in MGM on a margin call.  He bailed inorder to save THAT postion.  He made his call, I'm making mine.

This is what investing is all about.  It's not about doing what Rookie, or Kirk, or Warren, or anyone else thinks.  It's about DOING what the person putting up the DOUGH thinks.
Time will tell.....

I STILL haven't heard anyone here, INCLUDING ROOKIE, tell me how FORD goes under with GOVERMENT LOAN GUARANTEES????  Show me how that business fails with THAT for a back stop???  Even if the BANKS won't make those loans, the GOVERMENT will.

You guy's are MISSING IT....unemployment is going to ROCKET from here.
It will be POLITICAL SUICIDE to let a company close it's doors that employs TEN'S OF THOUSANDS of people DURING A DEPRESSION.

THEY SURVIVED THE FIRST GREAT DEPRESSION......THEY'LL SURVIVE THIS
ONE.

I will leave you all with this......

Rookie said over a year ago that Ford was dog and it would probably go lower. 

HE has been proven 100% CORRECT.

I bought Ford for a 2 to 4 year turn around play.  I'll be sure and let you ALL know, good or bad, how it works out!!!  My gut and my experience tells me we BOTH end up being RIGHT.




Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: rookieNYC on October 22, 2008, 03:16:40 pm
ok fdjake...Your still my man !!!....

I don't know about you guys but I have seen a few traders wearing hard hats today...This blood is unreal..I took a %4 stop my closed end funds..i bought into the blood again at exactly 3:48 pm...I bought sso.qld.ddm.usd.ure.uyg.bac.ge.rsx.eem....

Lets see if i can get a bounce that continues..made %2 back of the %4 I lost in 10 minutes using these 2x etfs compared to holding those closed end funds that MELTED....No sleep tonight again..Oh well its only money...
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: fdjake on October 22, 2008, 03:38:19 pm
I gotta give you credit man...Psychologically it's BRUTAL.

I read your post a few days back.....That was probably the most insightful look into the mind of a trader I have ever read.  The ability to control your emotions is incredible.

I couldn't do it....I know that...My saving grace is being able to just step back and NOT play when things get crazy. 

Still learning a ton from you Rookie...

Thanks!
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S
Post by: Liquidity on October 22, 2008, 03:39:17 pm
I just joined you on SSO but i got it @ 28.55  :beer

I think tomorrow should bounce up 300 pts. Im comfortable with these stocks.


well now i dont feel so bad i bought right around the time you did but i should have been watching DAL i could have gotten it for $1 less a share and im alittle nervous about the sell off intra-day. the only news was nwa's  oil hedge will cost nwa money with lower oil prices and they're gonna merge later this year.

Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S
Post by: Liquidity on October 22, 2008, 03:48:41 pm
man i did alot of trading in one of my accounts today. i think 3 day trades i got chill on that for the rest of week now. 


rookie do you use margin ?? i hear alot of people advise against it, wondering what your thoughts are on it.
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: rookieNYC on October 22, 2008, 04:05:18 pm
rookie do you use margin ?? i hear alot of people advise against it, wondering what your thoughts are on it.

In my personal accounts no I don't normally use margin unless we are under much different market conditions...At the moment I'm only using %7 of my available capital...I presently have %93 in cash...FSLXX to be exact..It pays a whopping %2.88...LOL...fwiw YTD I'm *UP* %3.1 on %100 capital...I've worked my butt off to get that...

fdjake....
   Psychology is the name of this game..I'm here to help and I love to be helped...I still learn something everyday from this market..What I definitely have learned is that im going to be justing indexing for a while...Closed end funds MELT...Not liquid enough to be in this market....ETF's or nothing...
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S
Post by: Liquidity on October 23, 2008, 12:12:09 pm
ugh lost $20 on commissions on SSO i should sold for a dollar per share profit.

DUG looks like its gonna be a winner again today. intra-day low was around 47 @ 53 now. I didnt think the sell off would continue today, but what do know i dont run a hedge fund so.
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: rookieNYC on October 23, 2008, 01:58:46 pm
between yesterdays and entries and some sub par exits today I did ok,but didn't get great exits...Hindsight is 20/20...Movin on ...Just glad not to be an investor..Jeez does this ever end ....I feel horrible for the retirees...Dreams are being crushed and what I think everyone is missing about this is how long the recovery will take...The destruction of wealth that is taking place will take decades to rebuild..You are witnessing history to be alive during these times..Seems like these markets are setting up for the big one (crash)...Just has a bottomless feel...Hopefully I'm wrong,very wrong...


Classic Fed liquidity injection just before markets are ready to break down...
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S
Post by: Liquidity on October 23, 2008, 02:07:19 pm
rookie

this market will pick up as soon as the hedge fund's stop liquidating and all the margin calls are meet or liquidated and theirs calm back. when we have a few days of calm then you will see a jump when the cash comes pouring back into the market.

a lot of people keep pointing out how things are cheap now but people cant get back in to buy them because everyday theres 10% swings. Will people stop buying big macs, coca-cola, computers, cell phones, you name it. the government is pulling out all the stops they can and those stops are just getting some traction. Now's definetly not the time to be long anything but its coming soon. I think after the election things will get back to normal as far as volatility goes.
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S
Post by: Liquidity on October 23, 2008, 02:11:24 pm
 that being said im back to all cash except for my ocnf , dividend play which isn't a big position at all.


the market kicked my ass today, took my profits from yesterday.  :flush
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S
Post by: Liquidity on October 23, 2008, 02:13:44 pm
wow this market is moving big time today. timing is everything in this market. the crazy 3 o clock hour is here this market swings hard at 3 oclock
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S
Post by: Liquidity on October 23, 2008, 02:17:57 pm
this is bad im actually routing for the market to tank so i can pick up my stocks later at a better price.

poor investors gut wrenching watching this stuff.
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: propertymanager on November 06, 2008, 06:38:03 pm
Hey FDJake,

Our Ford stock is looking better and better.  As I said a couple of weeks ago, I think this Ford play is really a bet that the government won't allow Ford to file bankruptcy.  With Obama being elected and the dems picking up big majorities in Congress, I think that chances of the Dems allowing Ford to file bankruptcy are greatly reduced.  I bought back my first covered call for $.06, so I'm into Ford for $1.62 per share.  I'm hoping for another bounce in the next few days as it becomes apparent that the dems will bail out the auto industry and I've got another order in to sell the Nov. $3 covered call again for $.52.  Let's keep it going!!!

You had a good call on the Ford play!  Here's another you might take a look at:  ACI (Arch Coal).  Unless we don't need electricity anymore, then we're going to need coal.  I bought it on the last dip at $16.83 and sold a Nov. $17.50 Covered Call for $2.25.  It then went to up around $21, but is now coming back down.  I have an order in to buy my CC back at $.10.  I think the likely bottom is around $15, but it could go as low as $10 (worst case).  Check it out and let me know what you think!

Comrade Mike
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: fdjake on November 07, 2008, 08:44:47 am
In my opinion, here's why FORD is a LOCK.......

The Dems sat and WATCHED as the Bush administration let LEHMAN collapse. That SINGLE MISTAKE created a series of events that DIRECTLY lead to a COLLAPSE in stock prices.

The Dems JUST got back in the drivers seat.  If share holders, pension funds, mutual funds, and anyone else with shares in Ford or GM are hungout to dry (like Lehman shareholders) ANY REMAINING people LEFT in the stock market will HEAD FOR THE DOORS.  THEY WILL SELL ANY STOCK, and we will have a repeat of the Lehman induced sell off!!  Can you IMAGINE the reaction on Wall St. to an announcement that either FORD or GM entered BANKRUPTCY?????  Forget it.....someone shut the lights off, it's OVER!!!  THIS WILL NOT BE ALLOWED TO HAPPEN.

The FED has already admitted that they completely screwed up by letting Lehman go under.  The best part about the CAR COMPANIES today was......

THE JOBS REPORT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

PEOPLE..........PAY ATTENTION HERE.

The jobs report was TERRIBLE.  A study just released by a highly regarded MIT economist concluded that a loss of either FORD or GM (just one of them) would DIRECTLY LEAD TO THE LOSS OF 2.5 MILLION JOBS!!!!!!! :shocked :shocked :shocked :shocked :shocked

There is NO WAY on earth that the DEMS will let GM or FORD go into bankruptcy.  BANKRUPTCY for an AUTOMAKER is NOT an option.
Someone here tell me WHO BUYS A NEW CAR FROM AN AUTOMAKER IN BANKRUPTCY???????

Answer..............NO ONE DOES!!!!!!

Ford and GM will get ANY and ALL the money they need to ride out this recession/depression.  As I've said before......There is ABSOLUTELY NOTHING BETTER than recession to build PENT UP DEMAND for automobiles.   Once the economy turns, ( it could EASILY take 4-5 years)....BUT....after EVERY SINGLE RECESSION in HISTORY....the FIRST thing people buy are NEW CARS!!!!  They replace the junkers that they HAD to keep driving during the lean times.  Car company stocks will make gains that will BLOW YOUR MIND!!!!

When this lights off (and it will)....I would NOT be surprised to see FORD RIP right up to the mid $30/share range.
It sounds CRAZY to say this now.....but I HAVE DONE THIS BEFORE.  People have incredibly SHORT MEMORIES!!!!

YOU ARE BUYING A COMPANY...... THAT THE MOST POWERFUL COUNTRY ON EARTH.........

W I L L   N O T    A L L O W   T O   F A I L!!!!

It REALLY doesn't get much better than this gentlemen!!!!

Buy now...or WISH you had later!!!!
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S
Post by: Liquidity on November 07, 2008, 01:16:39 pm
i bought gm earlier for 4.10  sold it at 4.30 got lucky on the high.

I am hoping gm goes down again end of the day. its gonna double in a very short time, so will F.


funny when cnbc was saying they will go bk gm plummeted, funny they can say stupid things and people will panic. If GM and F go bk this country will be in a depression !!

buy them today because by monday the tune will be changed from panic to celebration.
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S
Post by: Liquidity on November 07, 2008, 01:25:37 pm
the talk is Auto's should file BK because the gov's money will come with restrictions.  lets look at it.


they say gm has 17bln and if they file bk they can still operate. bs shareholders who lost there money would never buy another GM made car in their life if they choose bk instead of a government bailout. they would still have to cut jobs and a lot of them. those jobs affect other companies jobs, it has a trickle down affect.  hmmm hmmm LEHMAN hmmm hmmm

theres no way i see any auto's going bk. they are really too big to fail. those restrictions that would likely come along with government money is needed. these auto have done little to evolve their business. they are going to be forced to change anyways. they will take any money they can get to do it.


Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: phlemboy on November 15, 2008, 09:30:10 pm
I figured I'd resurrect this thread since Congress will be taking this issue up this week.
 I think the Automakers will not be allowed to fail. I actually have two questions about this.

1. If the Ford play is a good investment ( which I think it is), wouldn't it be wise for the govt. to "invest" taxpayer money to reap the rewards? The way I understand it, this would be a loan. Therefore would have to be paid back.

2. Someone advised me to open a sharebuilder.com account. Then I can buy stocks. Does this sound like a good idea or is there another website? I don't have much to invest, but I want to give it a try. Any suggestions?
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: justin0419 on November 16, 2008, 05:47:34 am
Sharebuilder is a good cheap site to trade from.  Fees are low.  If you set up the automatic investment, you can get $4 trades.  The problem with those is the trades go thru on a predetermined date so you can't jump on something when you see the price where you want in or out.  We've used sharebuilder for a couple years with no issues except the stocks we bought are in the toilet. 
You can still pay more for market trades that execute after you put in your order.  I'm just saying the $4 trades advertised have some restrictions.
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: propertymanager on November 16, 2008, 02:37:40 pm
I'd like to put my moderator hat on for just a moment and remind EVERYONE that investing in the stock market involves risk.  Furthermore, investing in a company that may go bankrupt involves a LOT OF RISK.  You could easily lose every penny you put in.

FDJake is investing in Ford with discretionary money, which means that if he loses it all, he's not going to be broke or need to alter his lifestyle.  Trading and/or investing in stock requires becoming educated, just as investing in real estate requires education.  So, please carefully consider where you put your money.  If you lose it, the only person you'll have to blame is yourself!!!

Mike
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: rookieNYC on November 16, 2008, 03:02:50 pm
To add to what Mike just posted...

When you read or hear someone make UNREAL claims of profits you can bet its a LIE..These are only feeble attempts to lure others into a dream which will surely become a nightmare...The stock market is the HARDEST way to make money for the inexperienced..I'm a *professional*,this is what I do for a living and I found this year incredibly difficult...Thats because I trade/invest with REAL MONEY...When I post I do so based on REAL TRADES WITH REAL MONEY...Not hypothetical dreaming of what I coulda,shoulda or woulda done...Its very important newbies and veterans realize the difference between the real and the FAKE..Stocks that are under $5 are viewed as high risk garbage on wall street..A stocks price reflects the value of the business and the inherent risk of owning it...You ever heard the term you get what you pay for?..If it sounds too good to be true it IS...Just go to any market related site and read about the bloodshed on wall street, that of consumate professionals...So if you believe some part time real estate investors are making outrageous profits and the best of the best are dying in the streets then I have bridge for sale cheap..

YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED...FOLLOW THE SHEEP AND YOU SHALL BE SLAUGHTERED..
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: fdjake on November 16, 2008, 08:15:13 pm
"Stocks under $5 are viewed as GARBAGE on Wall Street"

Man.....it must STINK there NOW!!!! 

Using that logic, I guess a whole LOT of INVESTMENT BANKS are GARBAGE NOW too???.......But hey......THEIR RUN BY THOSE "PRO'S".....RIGHT??
(That's called sarcasim Rookie....Go ahead....Fire one back :beer)

I have a different opinion....

I've been investing my OWN money for over 20 years.  I've taken profits from BOTH Real Estate and Stocks.  Those profits have been poured into a commercial real estate portfolio that is CONSERVATIVELY estimated at between $8 million and $10 million.  It consists of self storage warehouses, industrial buildings, and a few recently aquired residential homes.

I purchased my first commercial building with the profits from CHRYSLER STOCK that was purchased in 1992.   From my experience....You can take EVERYTHING you have ever READ, or been TOLD about investing in stocks and FLUSH IT!!!!

If the EXPERTS were REALLY EXPERTS, why have so many of them had their @sses handed to them this year????  Why did the EXPERTS PILE into CDO's that are now WORTHLESS???  Why did the EXPERTS lever their companies 40 to 70 TIMES???  If THOSE are the smartest guy's in the room???????? WE NEED SMARTER GUY'S!!!!!!!!

Listening to some people here, you would think you need an Ivy League Education to successfully invest in stocks..........YOU DON'T.

Want to know what (stock market) investments I made this year???? (2008)  3 investments......That's IT.....I purchased WAY out of the money PUTS on USO in late June.  The USO is the United States Oil index....It didn't take an EXPERT to see a few things......If any of you care to wander through my previous posts you can read these ideas for yourself...... They were posted when OIL WAS around $130/barrel!!!!!  I actually sent Rookie a DETAILED PM of this investment when oil was in the high $120 range.

Here's what a DUMB Firefighter saw the the EXPERTS missed.....

I watched FIREFIGHTERS I worked with trade in F-150's BY THE DOZENS to buy Honda CIVICS,  I saw ARTICLE after ARTICLE in newspapers that said RIDERSHIP on PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION was up 500%!!!!!!
I saw people STAYING HOME on vacations so they didn't have to spend $4.30/ gallon for GAS......IN other words, I saw FUTURE DEMAND for OIL DROPPING.....I saw an ECONOMY weakening.

The options I purchased in USO went up 3 TIMES in value and I SOLD them.   If I had KEPT them they would have eventually went up 10 times in value......BUT, a 300% return is hard to bitch about. Maybe a PRO could have got the 1000%.

Number 2..........FORD  OPTIONS........LOT'S OF THEM......Those and a nice PILE of Ford STOCK at sub $2.00 levels!!!  STILL own it ALL.....CAN NOT WAIT for all the "Wish I had's" in 5 years from this bad boy!!!!

Number 3.........A short postion in QQQQ ....June 09 $20 PUTS to be exact...... I don't think this market is ANYWHERE NEAR it's bottom.....Job losses are just NOW starting and THEY....like EVERYTHING ELSE in this economic DISASTER, will be FAR, FAR worse than the "EXPERTS" are predicting.  WATCH!!!!

Here's what you need to understand......IT'S NOT HARD if you OPEN YOUR EYES!!!

This economic event has been UNDER ESTIMATED AT EVERY LEVEL!!!  HOUSING, OIL PRICES, COMMODITES, BANK FAILURE RATES, INVESTMENT BANKS DISSAPPEARING......
EVERYTHING...........

If you believe..... After a track record like THAT....The "EXPERTS" now have a handle on FUTURE UNEMPLOYMENT RATES????????  YOUR KIDDING YOURSELF....

The BOZO'S are SEVERELY underestimating how bad JOB LOSSES will get in this country.......JOB loses are EVERYTHING!!!!  This will be the LAST SHOE TO DROP....Do you realize that estimates for unemployment at the PEAK of this recession/depression are only 7 to 8% :shocked :flush
Watch.........before it's over....we WILL HAVE unemployments levels WELL OVER 10% EASILY...........EASILY.....That 2 to 3% difference is GIGANTIC!!!

Job losses are like a DOG chasing it's TAIL...They KEEP GOING....Layoffs from the Plant down the street lead to layoffs and loss of business in restaurants, retail stores, hardware stores, car dealers, EVERYTHING..
When I hear the NIT WITS talking about NOW being a GREAT TIME to buy STOCK????  I just shake my head....

Here's the key to investing......DON'T DO IT......UNLESS, there's SOMETHING to do!!!!!   The ONLY advantage guy's like us have is knowing when NOT to play the game.  I wait for the ODDS to line up in my favor by a BIG margin....People here see Ford as a RISK......I could NOT disagree MORE...  This company WILL NOT be allowed to fail....It actually leaves me speechless to hear people talk about BANKRUPTCY for FORD.......IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.....BECAUSE NO ONE......Let me repeat that....NO ONE is going to BUY A NEW CAR from a BANKRUPT MAKER!!!!!  The BEST PART though......The absolute BEST PART....is how all the PRO'S turn their backs on this investment.......It makes me LOVE IT even more!!!!  I cannot tell you how well I sleep at night knowing all the PRO'S are RUNNING away from this stock!!!!!!!

3 trades THIS YEAR.......2 of which I still OWN.....  UP 300%!!!  NO dreaming here........just REALITY.
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: rookieNYC on November 17, 2008, 06:38:33 am
Using that logic, I guess a whole LOT of INVESTMENT BANKS are GARBAGE NOW too???.......But hey......THEIR RUN BY THOSE "PRO'S".....RIGHT??


Ok you asked for it and my response will be short...

First off the pig business of RE investing caused this mess by the Democrats forcing the regulations of banks to lend to high risk individuals..I don't hear you say one bad word about Barney Frank or Chuck Schumer for strong arming the industry to lend to these people..Or did I miss your posts about that?...Didn't think so...Banking was and will be once again a very profitable business once they get back to lending to people with high credit and assets,instead of broke individuals...

Now the issue of your *DREAM* trading...You love to take credit for trades *AFTER* the fact...This stock goes down %60 then you magically had 9000 puts from some unheard of level...Granted you claimed to *WANT* to short oil,never did you announce a signicant position in put options..But once again magically you take credit for owning massive amounts of USO puts *AFTER* the fact...Then to make matters even more unbelievable you claim to have a *HIGH* 6 figure account that is up %300...So I should assume that you had a couple hundred thousand bet on options..Your entire account?... :bs  :bs  :bs

Any *experienced* trader worth his salt would never and I mean NEVER push all the chips on the table for any bet..I manage a 7 figure account (personal) and I would never risk even %25 of my net worth on any bet...It's called capital preservation...Had you said I bet 20k,30k I *MAY HAVE* believed you...But you had to say you bet it *ALL*...You bet the entire blanking farm,the entire enchilada on OPTIONS.... :bs...Total BS...Naked shorts none the less...The highest risk move there is in the industry..And to make it even more comical and unbelievable you were shorting USO at $94 oil...So I'm to believe that you kept adding to your short while oil squeezed your ball$ off..Essentially watching your account vanish (6 figures at that) before it miraculously went up %300... :bs

To end this nonsense I want you to give specific trades,entry prices,symbols on options or stock BEFORE hand...End this months after the fact * I made a miracle happen * trading...Because I don't believe any of it..And anyone stupid enough to believe it deserves to have their money vanish..

There is little doubt that you clearly have some knowledge of the equity markets and you are intelligent but my father always told me to believe none of what you hear and half of what you see..I respect your profession,my brother in law is FDNY and I admire that but I have to highly question the rest of your chirade..

Like I said ANNOUNCE entry dates,time,prices,symbols BEFORE you make any trades and I will STFU...
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: fdjake on November 17, 2008, 07:14:30 am
Ok  Rookie.....

First off.....I NEVER said I used EVERY SINGLE DOLLAR in my trading account to buy puts in the USO........NEVER SAID THAT........I STILL have the email I sent you WITH THE DATE when I mentioned this trade to you......The DAY that email was sent oil traded at $128/barrel...that's a FACT.  You can tell people whatever you want, but it's hard to argue with a dated email and a POSTED closing price.

Here's the intersting part to me.........According to your logic, there is NO WAY I could have withstood the price move AGAINST those USO puts when OIL moved to it's eventual high of $147.........Yet......I STILL hold my postion in FORD????? 

You obviously would have BAILED OUT on those USO puts...THAT WOULD HAVE BEEN A MISTAKE...Like your prediction that....

McCAIN would pull out a surprise WIN :shocked

FORD would be sent to the secondary market because Kerkorian had a MARGIN CALL :shocked

OIL was headed to $200/barrel :shocked

YOU WERE WRONG ON ALL OF THOSE CALLS.... I don't CHANGE my opinions based on what 15 other  "smart" guy's in a ROOM are doing.

As far as my political beliefs????

NO ONE CARES.......

There's enough BLAME here (on BOTH sides) to fill a STADIUM.

FINALLY.......

The most recent open position I have is in the June 09 QQQQ $16 puts (1000 contracts) purchased on 11/12/08 at .50

I will also enter a LONG TERM STOCK postion in GOODYEAR TIRE.
The stock has been HAMMERED.....OIL and RUBBER prices have falllen through the FLOOR in the last 3 months.  This will drop Goodyears COSTS BIG TIME, yet you can be SURE their TIRE prices WILL NOT drop...I will be BUYING TODAY!!!  The stock closed at $5.42 on Friday.
I'll be sure and let you know EXACTLY when and at what price I get in....This will be an INVESTMENT, not a TRADE...so if in a week it is trading at $4.00....I......will NOT be BAILING OUT.  (I don't have to worry about all those "smart guy's" breaking my b*lls about an open postion)
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: rookieNYC on November 17, 2008, 07:23:13 am
Like I said ANNOUNCE entry dates,time,prices,symbols BEFORE you make any trades and I will STFU...
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: propertymanager on November 17, 2008, 07:53:41 am
These are some good discussions.  I think the key points being made are that:

FDJake is investing based on common sense.  I like that approach because my own experience in the stock/options market is that it is nearly impossible for a small investor to invest on fundamentals because we are always lacking the whisper information that the big boys like RookieNYC have as a result of being in the business.  So, trading Ford stock based on the political assumption that Ford will not be allowed to file bankruptcy is a good common sense trade.  The further assumption that the new democratic administration will try to protect those union jobs at Ford and therefore do a bailout is also common sense.  Of course, common sense can go right out the window when you're talking about politicians in Washington, and therefore I think EVERYONE should be careful about where they put their money.

RookieNYC is a professional trader and is providing an excellent warning about the very real risks associated with trading in this market.  Even the VERY BEST traders on Wall Street have had great difficulty this past year and NO-ONE KNOWS WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN THE FUTURE.  His point that you shouldn't bet the farm on a single position (or even a few positions) is excellent advice.  This market (and our ecomony) could crash and stay down for MANY, MANY years because of the underlying sickness of our country.  It's happened before.

Finally, I like the idea that those that are trading stocks or options to post the entry dates, time, prices, and symbols at the time they actually make the trade.  That will be fun and we can all see how everyone does.   I encourage everyone that is trading to participate and to add their rationale for the trade to their post.

Mike


Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: fdjake on November 17, 2008, 08:10:20 am
Hey Mike,

Rookie and the "PRO'S" will think this is a "GARBAGE STOCK",  but this piece of junk made me some REAL MONEY the last time it hit $5.00.  Check out the 10 year chart.....

http://finance.aol.com/charts/the-goodyear-tire-and-rubber-company/gt/nys/classic-charts

You gotta love the outright ARROGANCE that NO ONE but "Pro's" are smart enough to make money investing.

SIMPLE IDEAS, executed at a time when they are WALKING AWAY will hand them their @sses EVERYTIME!!!!!!!!!!

Scroll down to the bottom of this page and read how much RAW RUBBER PRICES are falling!! Don't forget to add in plumeting STEEL and OIL prices too.....TIRES = OIL, RAW RUBBER, and STEEL!!

http://www.dawn.com/2008/10/26/ebr18.htm
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: fdjake on November 17, 2008, 08:50:38 am
Mike,

Here's almost everything we've been warning about.....

http://gnn.tv/headlines/18774/Celente_Predicts_Revolution_Food_Riots_Tax_Rebellions_By_2012
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: fdjake on November 17, 2008, 09:09:28 am
11/17/2008........Goodyear...........20,000 shares purchased at $5.44/share!!!

Talk to me in 2 years......I'm not interested in hearing BS next month if it's at $4.00.  I'll be buying more.
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: propertymanager on November 17, 2008, 09:36:38 am
FDJake,

I think you are right that Goodyear (GT) has some potential, but I'm betting that I will be able to buy it at $3.50 per share in the near future (at least that's what the charts are saying to me). 

I believe that this market fundamentally changed last week when Paulson spoke (as I wrote in an earlier post).  We now seem to be in a SLOW GRIND lower.  I will be very surprised is we can hold 7,700 on the DOW much longer.   If you look at a 20 yr chart with monthly bars, we're at the 200 (month) moving average.  Where's the support below here?  Very minor support at 7,200; a little better support at about 5,500; then pretty good support at about 4,000 on the DOW.  If things get bad enough for food riots and squatter rebellions, then we'll be a LOT lower than we are now.

Mike
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: fdjake on November 17, 2008, 09:56:39 am
Elliot Wave Theory says.......

DOW 1000  :shocked :shocked :shocked

Super Cycle Bear  Market.
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: propertymanager on November 17, 2008, 10:00:28 am
Got an article reference on that DOW 1,000?  I'd love to read it.

Mike
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: fdjake on November 17, 2008, 10:08:10 am
I just wanted to add one thing here.....

I have a HUGE amount of RESPECT for Rookie.....The guy's a SELF MADE MAN!!!   There is NOTHING that I respect more than someone who can take NOTHING, and BUILD it into SOMETHING OF VALUE..

He does that FOR A LIVING!!!!!!!

I wouldn't last 2 SECONDS in the enviroment that he makes LIVING in.

I have strong opinions, so does Rookie.....Hopefully these occasional debates we have, bring something to this site.  It's about stating opinions, theories, and thought processes, then WATCHING how things play out....

I enjoy sparring with him because he's SMART....It brings my game up a notch when I KNOW he's gonna break my b*lls.   This is a by-product of being a  Firefighter....Breaking b*lls is an ART FORM where I work.  

My guess is things AREN'T much different on Wall St.   :beer

Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: phlemboy on November 17, 2008, 10:30:55 am
I actually get a lot from these discussions. Whether it's RE or stocks, you guys have a lot to offer through these discussions. Thanx for the insight.
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: LakesideEstimating on November 17, 2008, 02:42:18 pm
fdjake (and others),

what are your comments on this article?

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/Extra/gop-to-detroit-drop-dead.aspx
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: propertymanager on November 17, 2008, 02:52:46 pm
I don't think it matters.  The Dems have already signalled their intention to bail out the Big 3 (really the unions and union pensions).  So, what Bush or the Republicans want is basically irrelevant.  The real risk is whether the public gets very upset about the bailouts and puts pressure on the government to stop bailing everyone out.

Mike
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: rookieNYC on November 17, 2008, 02:57:30 pm
ok all the BS aside...fdjake I will deal with you later ..kidding..


I'm starting to pair into International and American etf's here...Only %10 of my total portfolio...

EEM,EFA,EWJ,EWH,EWT,EWM,EWS,FXI,IFN,MOO,INP,QLD,SSO,DDM,RSX,URE,USD,UYG,UYM....

I firmly believe that %10 of my money has to be in equities...I have a %90 CASH position otherwise...And yes I'm taking a small amount of heat on my entries here...But thats what you get buying into blood...I will try my best to hold these but I think international especially Asia has been beat to piss...Russia also is down %75 YTD...RSX...

I bought everything at about 3:51 pm with one basket order...Basket order is one stroke of the key and I get filled on everything ....

I'd like to also add that I like High Yield Debt and High Yield Bond Funds here but I missing the cajones to be attached to holding periods of mutual funds right now...Even if I bought closed end funds now they are too illiquid for these markets and seeing %10 price swings sickens me...So I may have to pay up at a later date,but hopefully we can all laugh about these prices next year..I'm not saying we will but I just truly feel things are overdone enough for me to allocate %10 of my money into this mess..Especially interantionally...American markets may very well see %10-%15 more downside but who knows...
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: LakesideEstimating on November 17, 2008, 07:28:11 pm
The problem as I see it, Mike, is the gov't is offering the Big 3 $25 billion in loans IF THEY RETOOL to make more fuel efficient vehicles.

How can they afford to retool when this video says GM will RUN OUT OF MONEY in 6-9 months?!? The are hemhorraging $2 bil a month.

This is a tough one to me, but I agree with you guys that the gov't CANNOT let the Big 3 sink!
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: fdjake on November 17, 2008, 07:38:44 pm
REMEMBER.......GM DOES NOT have the product pipeline FORD does...

I wouldn't go anywhere NEAR GM stock.....Our economy is on the rocks.  You don't want to buy ANY American car company, you want the one that is BEST positioned when this mess is history.  Ford has lower cash burn rates than GM, a BETTER UAW contract, and the cars coming here from Europe are ALREADY selling like hot cakes there.

Chrysler is GONE.......Hyundai is the latest "buyer". Cerbius can not dump this turd quick enough.  They'll get eaten up little by little or sold at Fire sale prices....

My best estimate is we are left with just Ford and GM.
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: justin0419 on November 18, 2008, 01:14:50 am
Good thing Chrysler just came out with that limited lifetime power train warranty...
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: propertymanager on November 18, 2008, 12:21:29 pm
It's Chrysler's lifetime, not the owner's!

Mike
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: propertymanager on November 20, 2008, 11:23:34 am
I just bought AA (Alcoa) at 7.35 and have an order in to sell the Dec $7.5 covered call at $1.08.  Update:  I lowered my order to $1.00 and my Dec $7.50 covered call was filled at $1.04.  That essentially makes my basis in AA $6.31.
 
Mike
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S
Post by: Liquidity on November 20, 2008, 11:29:18 am
senators come to some agreement @ 2 and 2:30 for details

F and GM are skyrocketing from their lows today :beer
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: propertymanager on November 20, 2008, 11:32:48 am
Go Ford!  Go Ford!  Go Ford!  I have an order in to sell the Dec. $3 Covered Call for $.54.

Mike
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S
Post by: Liquidity on November 20, 2008, 01:53:13 pm
How can they announce an agreement has been made and the details will be announced @ 2:30 news conference then come back and say ooops we dont have a deal yet. we want the auto's to show us their plans.  :bs


how crooked is this government  :argue

way to pump and dump, very well done. and they are charging mark cuban with insider trading. I'm sure there was no insider trading today on F and GM   :crossfingers


Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: propertymanager on November 20, 2008, 03:27:43 pm
Quote
How can they announce an agreement has been made and the details will be announced @ 2:30 news conference then come back and say ooops we dont have a deal yet. we want the auto's to show us their plans

It would be absolutely humorous if they weren't contributing to the destruction of the economy.  Larry, Curly, and Mo - that's how I would describe them.

Mike
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: phlemboy on December 19, 2008, 01:06:34 am
This was such a good topic I thought I'd resurrect it! :biggrin Besides, it has some good points on what options are etc.... :biggrin
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: propertymanager on December 19, 2008, 07:19:09 am
Anyone still holding Ford stock should be concerned about the structure of the bailout that is coming.  If it's a pre-packaged bankruptcy and if it includes Ford (I don't think it will), then the stock will be worthless.  I'm expecting that whatever bailout is announced today will apply to only GM and Chrylser.

In any case, I'm in good shape.  I sold my Ford stock at $3.49 (as I posted in real time) at a nice profit and am waiting for it to go significantly lower before re-buying it.

Mike
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: fdjake on December 19, 2008, 08:08:19 am
Your gonna regret selling that Ford stock Mike....

Bush basically GAVE them that money WITH ALMOST NO STRINGS ATTACHED.  They DO have to report back in March.  By then "DUBYA" will be sitting on a porch somewhere in Texas, and his days of screwing up this country will be OVER!!!

FORD DIDN'T NEED  these bridge loans IMMEDIATELY (if at all)...They'll wait until Obama gets in and then they'll sit down and negotiate a deal with a President with a FULL BRAIN instead of a HALF WIT!!!

Don't forget to add in all the FOREIGN MONEY that Ford is RAKING IN from SWEDEN and other European countries where Ford builds cars.  Those loans alone add up to OVER $6,000,000,000......

Yahoo this morning has the lastest list of the BEST SELLING vehicles in the U.S.

NUMBER 1.................FORD'S F-150.........

BIGGEST LOSER??????   TOYOTA'S PRIUS!!!

Looks like those Gas prices from last summer are all but a bad memory for our BRILLANT POPULATION!!

Gee....I wonder what happens to car sales when the recession ends in 3 to 4 years???

I'll take a shot at it.......

THEY'LL BUY NEW CARS AND TRUCKS LIKE A BUNCH OF LOTTERY WINNING TEENAGERS!!!!!!!!!

Playing the SHORT MONEY trade on this investment is a WASTE OF TIME.
BUY FORD STOCK and FORGET YOU OWN IT!!!    The money you'll have made in 5 years will BLOW YOUR MIND!!!  I'm talking about LIFE CHANGING MONEY here.

Wait till you guy's see the cars FORD has coming here in the next 3 years!!!!

Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: propertymanager on December 19, 2008, 08:40:16 am
Quote
Your gonna regret selling that Ford stock Mike....

Right now, I'm very happy with my decision.  I thought Ford would go to $3.75 the other day.  Trying not to be too greedy, I put in my order to sell at $3.49 and it got filled.  The high ended up being $3.50.  This morning, the stock is in the $2.80 range (pre-market).  The news is now out on the bailout, with Bush the Socialist kicking the can down the road without demanding meaningful concessions.

I am a big believer in "buy on the rumor, sell on the news".  The news is now out on the first round of the bailout and it's a loser for everyone involved.  The automakers didn't get enough money to make a significant difference and they aren't going to be forced into lowering their expenses which would enable long term viability.  The workers will have jobs for the next few months but additional debt is further damaging their future.  The economy is weakening and people are losing jobs.  Who will be buying a new car?  NOT ME!

The bottom line is that today's bailout announcement didn't fix ANYTHING.  So, I think that I'll be able to buy Ford MUCH cheaper than $3.49 in the near future.  In fact, I could buy it for less than $3 RIGHT NOW!

Mike
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: fdjake on December 19, 2008, 08:57:13 am
Here's the problem.....

If you continue to trade in and out of Ford Stock you'll make money,  That's the good news.....The bad news is while chasing $1/share or $2/share you'll miss the bigger moves.  This happens because people always look at what they COULD have purchased a stock for......As the stock price moves to new highs, they WAIT for it to drop back to their last sale price, but it doesn't.  This is what you just said you planned on doing.

I'm not arguing with you Mike....I think you're probably right.  We're gonna see a sell off here at anytime.  I just mention this to you so it's in the back of your mind. 

Ford is THE ONLY viable AMERICAN CAR COMPANY......THE ONLY ONE!!
Chrysler is DONE.......I do not see a scenerio where GM turns around.

Ford on the other hand WILL GET the UAW to agree to move up their 2010 contract concessions (which put them on par with Japanese car makers)  They WILL get any additional fianancing they need from Obama's White House, and at that point it's a TIME ISSUE.
1 TRILLION DOLLARS are going to be thrown at this economy in the form of a DEEP stimulus package that WILL Create jobs.  Just the infastructure plan alone will create MASSIVE construction spending and JOBS. 

It takes a LONG LENS to see these moves....The thing you DON'T want to do is forget the long term investment IDEA.  That Idea is FORD WILL survive and eventually prosper.   AS I've said before......Ford DOES NOT have to beat Honda and Toyota.....
They only have to BEAT the Ford of 2008!!!   Any uptick in sales accompanied by dropping costs will send this stock FLYING!!  It's YEARS out.....But it IS coming.....Don't miss the BIG MONEY trying to make the SHORT MONEY!!!
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: propertymanager on December 19, 2008, 10:33:53 am
My problem with taking a long term view is that you must eventually sell if you want to make a profit.  The issue becomes the point at which you sell.  Holding a stock forever is not an option, because no-one lives forever.  Peopl that have taken the long term view have been screwed.  Their stock holdings and 401Ks have been decimated.  If this is the year they retired, they will be living retirement in much less style than hoped for (or they will find themselves being a greeter at Walmart as you discussed). 

So, the question becomes, if I buy Ford now at what price do I sell?  Do I sell at $10, $20, $35?  How long will I wait for it to reach those levels?  I'm not saying that this is a bad plan.  It's kind of like buying a house in California today that has negative cash flow and planning to sell once it appreciates.  It can be VERY profitable if it all works out.

On the other hand, I buy silly little houses and apartment buildings in Ohio that will never have runaway appreciation, but I get my equity NOW by purchasing them at a huge discount and I also get the cash flow NOW.    Yes, I'm potentially giving up huge appreciation at some time in the future, but again the question is when would I sell if I was betting on appreciation.  A couple of years ago, many people had huge paper profits on their California property.  Those that sold at or near the top did well.  Those that are still holding have been severly damaged and may never recover.

I guess the bottom line is that I like to take my profits now and trade again tomorrow or next week (I'm not a day trader). 

FDJake, how will you know when to sell your Ford stock?  What number are you looking for?

Mike
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: fdjake on December 19, 2008, 01:49:23 pm
Good question Mike....

Here's how I look at it....

What NO ONE is looking at (as usual) is the GIGANTIC CHANGES Alan Mulally has made at Ford that will effect it's future.  But let's forget that right now and look at the PAST for some insight into the FUTURE.

Ford STOPPED paying a dividend a few years ago on it's stock.  The FORD FAMILY derived a SUBSTANTIAL portion of it's yearly income from that dividend.  These folks (although still rich) took a HUGE HAIRCUT from the dropping of that payment.

Why is that important???

One of Mullaly's priorities, once Ford is profitable, is to GET THAT DIVIDEND RE-INSTATED!!!  His compensation (bonus) is actually TIED to that goal. ( The DAY that dividend comes back, Alan gets 20 MILLION shares of Ford stock!)
So my sell point will be sometime AFTER that dividend re-starts.  At that point the mutual funds, pensions, charities, and individual investors will POUR into this stock once that dividend re-appears.  I won't sell at exactly that point, but I will be CLOSELY watching.  I have NO INTENTION of keeping this stock.

Ford's stock has historically traded from $20 to $30/ share.  What you DO NOT want to do is put THAT price target on THIS STOCK.....

WHY?????

Because you'll be leaving a TON of money on the table.  Once Ford turns this around that company will be on every business magazine, every news show, every business newspaper for YEARS.  Iacocca isn't a household name for the MUSTANG...He's remembered for saving CHRYSLER. 

By using that dividend re-instatement as a target selling point...(and it  WILL happen) You'll turn a decent investment into a GRAND SLAM!!!!!
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: Roger J on December 19, 2008, 05:07:19 pm
This is coming from a non-trader, here, but all this is is basically different investing strategies.  I can see where both could work and each is geared toward a different mentality.

Jake is in it for the long haul.  Basically, the buy and hold and wait for "the day" type.

Mike is going after the short-term, reasonable profits.  From my limited knowledge, sounds kind of like a step or two above day-trading and it works for him.

And done correctly, I could see that he, too, could make a sizeable return on Ford stock bought and sold properly.  I mean, if you bought at $2, sold at $3.50, bought at $3, sold at $5, etc., etc., it works.

Raj
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: fdjake on December 20, 2008, 01:24:57 pm
That sounds great doesn't it???

But I can tell you from real money and real life experience that THIS is how that actually ends up working.....

You buy the stock intially at $3, then sell it for $4....All is right with the world....So you decide to just repeat this....You buy it back at $3.50 and sell it at $6......But then something goes wrong...
You never get another chance to buy BACK IN at $4 because right after you sold at $6 the stock went to $10!!!

This is the MENTAL part of playing the stock market.....Think about this...You just sold 10,000 shares at $6.00......You have $60,000 in your trading account but NOW...BUYING BACK those same 10,000 shares costs you $100,000 :banghead :banghead :banghead

This is what screws all new traders.....They have the right stock, at the right time, at the right PRICE....Then they BLOW IT by trying to be SMART....NO ONE...with the exception of an absolute PRO TRADER is BUYING that stock BACK at $100,000 when they just OWNED it at $30,000......The mental hurdle is just TOO HIGH. 

See.........If you had just KEPT the stock at $3.00 your total $30,000 investment would then be worth $100,000.  If the stock goes to $20....You now have $200,000. 

Believe me......You are NOT going to trade this stock in and out and NOT have this exact thing happen to you at some point.

How do you think I learned this????
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: propertymanager on December 20, 2008, 06:50:21 pm
FDJake,

I'm not married to Ford or any other stock.  If it doesn't behave as I expect, I'm out and using my money to trade something else.  I trade primarily on technicals and I don't really care what the stock is.

Today is option expiration date for December, which finished my Alcoa trade.  As I posted in real time, I bought Alcoa (AA) on Nov. 20, for $7.35 per share and sold the December $7.50 covered call for $1.04.  That call was exercised today.  So, I made a total pre-tax and pre-commission profit of $1.19 per share on a $7.35 stock in one month.  That was a 16% profit in one month.

Just to put things in context, I'm still underwater on my IAG short.   I sold it short at $5.10 and the stock is currently at $5.50.   The chart still looks good and I'm hanging in with the short so far.

Mike
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: fdjake on December 20, 2008, 07:00:08 pm
NONE of those numbers mean a thing unless you put the DOLLAR VALUES on these trades.

I tell people exactly how much I'm playing with here whether it be CONTRACTS or DOLLARS.

These trades you mention mean NOTHING without knowing how much SKIN you have in the game.

If your making 16% on $80K that's one thing.  If your making it on $1000 that's another. 

The DOLLAR AMOUNTS MATTER.  They matter not just for PROFIT or LOSS, but because of the MENTAL FACTOR associated with trading stocks.  Having $5000 in a trade is WORLDS away from having $50,000 in it.

If I was buying Ford stock with an account that totaled $2000 it's meaningless. 

If you don't want to talk about DOLLARS.....AT LEAST put the number of CONTRACTS your buying/selling.  Talking about trades without this info is MEANINGLESS.
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: Roger J on December 21, 2008, 05:58:19 am
Yep that's me.  In my little play world with play money.

That said, I'll respond again from my non-trader, common-sense standpoint.

If the stock jumped from $6 (your sell point) to $10, then....you don't buy it anymore.  You've made the money you intended to make and you move on, either to another stock or another money-making opportunity.  It's simply a different way of making money, as I see it.

You can play the "if I would have just done this (you can fill in here with your stayed in for the long haul), I would have money a killing" theory with just about anything people have made money off of through the years.

People in CA that sold properties at $500K, that in 2 years or less, were selling for $1M were saying that (at the top of the boom).

IF only I had held on to my comic books, or baseball cards, beanie babies, or any number of things that have had a major jump in price/value in their lifetime.

As an investor, YOU have to determine what your exit strategy, or out point is.  It doesn't matter what could have happened AFTER that point.

Raj
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: fdjake on December 21, 2008, 09:53:31 am
Let me know how you feel about that when you've traded out of a stock that went on to move up 20 TIMES what you paid for it!!

Roger.....When your using REAL MONEY to do this the psycology plays a HUGE role. 

As you say......Your NEW to this......You'll learn.....Then you'll understand.

What YOUR talking about ISN'T what you commented on.....YOU COMMENTED on Mike trading IN and OUT of this stock.   If his goal is to sell at $10 and walk away GREAT!!!!  But trying to trade these stocks ends up costing you BIG RETURNS over the longer (say 5 year) term.

WATCH.....You'll learn...
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: propertymanager on December 21, 2008, 11:26:23 am
On the other hand, if the economy really does lose another 4 million jobs next year, the economy will be in a REAL ditch and people will be buying even fewer cars than they are now.  I am still not convinced that the American people will not tire of all the bailouts and DEMAND that failing businesses be allowed to go into bankruptcy.  Ford could easily be forced into Chapter 11 and the stock would become worthless (even though Ford would ultimately survive).  That's the bet on this Ford play, that public opinion won't force the government to allow Ford to go into Chapter 11.  I'm not willing to bet the farm on this issue, although I am certainly willing to trade in and out.

Mike
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: fdjake on December 21, 2008, 12:04:48 pm
Good point Mike.  That is the question....

I will say this....

Obama rode into town on a WAVE of UNION Support.  He just put Joe Biden in charge of middle class recovery efforts (whatever that means)
Joe is a BIG TIME Union guy.  I seriously doubt Joe is going anywhere near a bankruptcy that would see those Union Contracts thrown out.

None of us have to agree with these methods.  In reality I think a bankruptcy is exactly what is needed.  I just think that in these economic times it would be a death blow to any car company.  I do believe the Unions,  at the very LEAST, are half the problem.  The other half being the management.

So far this is going exactly according to plan.  Ford is now publically acknowledged as the STRONGEST AMERICAN car company.  They are getting loans from all over the world, they still have VOLVO which is worth an estimated $6 billion, and now the Obama administration is coming into office.   The best part of all.......Whatever gets forced down GM's throat in the way of UAW wage cuts will benefit Ford too.  The UAW will be in no position to require Ford to pay a higher wage while accepting a lower wage from a weaker company.

In the end your absolutley right Mike.......There's still a lot of unknown out there.

In my way of thinking.....If we do get 4,000,000 jobs losses next year...
Any FURTHER loses (like losing a CAR company) will be completely unacceptable as this country spends an estimated $800 BILLION on Obamas plan to CREATE NEW JOBS.
At that point it becomes CHEAPER to KEEP the jobs you already have than trying to make NEW ones!!

I see the weakening economy actually making all those EXSISTING automobile jobs more IMPORTANT.   
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: phlemboy on December 21, 2008, 02:15:47 pm
I know this may sound a little weird, but what about buying Ford stock for both the long and short term? The stock may move enough daily to make a decent return. You could have a few speculative stocks that you trade frequently. But you could also have some long term plays as well. For the past week, I've watched Jim Cramer's "Mad Money". Many of the stocks he labels a "buy" tend to jump about 10% the following day. Some move more than others. I can see a scenerio where you could buy at the opening and sell later in the day. It doesn't matter to me if he's right or wrong. What matters is he apparantly has a following that listens to him blindly. I think its possible to take advantage of a "herd" that is too lazy to do their homework. I'm going to wach this to see if its a trend worth using. When it comes to the job losses, I think that only extends the possibility to add to a Ford position. I like the fact that Ford already started to downsize and do the right things a few years ago. They only need to have enough resources to stay out of bankrupty (which I think they do). They also won't be have to answer to or comply with the govt. in regards to how they do business. If they don't have restrictions, they could position themselves to increase their potential market share when the economy improves. I've noticed the media keeps using the term Big 3 when referring to this bailout. I hope they doing that. It just adds to the perception Ford is toast along with GM & Chrysler.
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: Roger J on December 22, 2008, 08:27:33 am
Because I'm not playing with "real" money in the stock market, my point doesn't count?  That's quaint.

I have, however, played with "real" money in real estate, in comic books and baseballs, to name a few, and in every one of those, I've sold something that has ultimately doubled, tripled, or just plain hit the sky in value jumps compared to what I sold it for.  It happens every single day when dealing with things that go up and down in value based on other people's desire for them.  You can play the "hold it until.." game, but what is that "until?"  You can also whine about it with the "only if I would have waited a bit more."  ARE you can work it based on the criteria that you put in place, and be happy that you made what you wanted.

Of course, there is the other side of that as well.  You know, holding it waiting on that big pay day down the road.  I wonder how all those people left holding real estate in CA, Las Vegas, Florida feel about that play now.

Sometimes, I do have a hard time following you, Jake.  In another post, you praise PM for following a different investing path that works for him (short term plays) and in this one you beating it down.

Raj
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: fdjake on December 22, 2008, 09:12:13 am
Mike just told all of us that he's playing with a few thousand dollars at a time.  For that amount of money, he's doing things that work for him.
I still think he'd be better off in the long run just buying ford and holding it for 3 to 5 years.  But he's naking money and that's all that matters.

As for YOU....

If your not playing with REAL MONEY....

YOU HAVE NO OPINION!!!     

At least not one that I'm going to play any attention to.

Roger, 

When you get some skin in the game.....IT'S A NEW GAME!!
Real Estate and Stocks are different animals.....

I must say that I temper anything you talk about here because of what I call the REALTOR MENTALITY.   Your a salesman....You get PAID to be optomistic.  The proof is right in this post.....You CONTINUE to blame the MEDIA for a crisis that is excellerating everyday and has roots that extend to the very foundation of our economy. 

IT'S NOT THE MEDIA ROGER.........IT'S THE ECONOMY!!!!!
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: Roger J on December 22, 2008, 10:19:48 am
In a nutshell...WOW.

First, as usual, you try to tilt everything in your direction, regardless of the intent of the original poster.  You blame my position (one the you created for me, btw) on the fact that I'm a REALTOR.  Although we've had this discussion before, apparently it bears repeating.  I was an investor long before I ever had to get me RE license, so my mindset is completely different than the "average" REALTOR.  Nuff said.

Second, I have NEVER blamed the media for this crisis.  I have, however, blamed the media for pushing this crisis, as well as a multitude of others further and faster than it probably should have or would have, on it's own.  In fact, when it suits you, you have tended to agree.

Third, because I don't play with "real" money in YOUR stock market, I am no longer allowed to post my thoughts and opinions on a public forum?  I guess since this forum as switched from a real estate forum to your stock trading advice and I don't play with enough money in stocks to qualify, I'm only allowed to lurk in the background and keep my mouth shut, is that the basic outline there, Jake?

It amazes me that if my opinion isn't something that you're going to pay attention to why it ALWAYS warrants a response from you.

Unlike you, I do have respect for your opinion, whatever the context.  That said, I rarely feel the need to bash my opinion into the heads of others that disagree with it nor do I feel the need to slam others with wise-cracks or putdowns that have opinions that differ from my own.

It's funny how YOU can say, Mike's doing it his way and it's cool, but I'm not allowed to do that without you badmouthing me for it.

It's cool, however.  I get the point.  I'll simply take my marbles and play elsewhere.

Raj
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: propertymanager on December 22, 2008, 10:33:27 am
GM and Ford stocks are rapidly declining this morning on news that Credit Suisse said that equity may be wiped out under the terms of the bailout program.  As I have said, in my experience, stocks that are near bankruptcy trade almost exclusively on news (and rumors).  Obviously, Ford isn't participating in the current bailout, but as you see - that doesn't matter.  They're still being punished on this news because they are on the same track, just a little behind GM and Chrysler.

That's why I sold my Ford stock at $3.49 (500 shares, making about $935 profit) and why I will buy again when it gets lower.  I currently have an order to buy 500 shares at $1.25, but would buy higher if the call option premiums improve (which they may if the volatility improves in Ford stock).

I'm just not a risk taker like FDJake.  In both my real estate business and my trading hobby, I want as close to a sure thing as I can get and I want my profits NOW, not 3-5 years from now.  The down side of doing things the way I do them, is that I'm giving up the big upside potential.  However, to actually get that big upside potential, you must not only buy and hold the property, but you must sell it at the right time.  People that bought dot-com companies in the 90's had a huge paper profit right up until the crash!  Likewise, many stock market participants had huge paper profits using a buy and hold strategy during the 2000's, right up to the crash!  Now that they've lost nearly 50% of their portfolio, it will take a 100% move up to get them back to the previous high.  OUCH!

Roger - keep posting!  I don't care how much money you trade with or if you don't trade at all, I would still appreciate your opinion (and everyone else's opinion)!  This would be a boring forum without a lot of different opinions.

Here's the article.

http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSTRE4BL2AG20081222?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews

Mike
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: phlemboy on December 22, 2008, 11:31:16 am
I find it hard to believe that Ford will be punished the same way as the others. I think there's enough smart investors to remain in Ford's stock... I hope... :cool
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: propertymanager on December 23, 2008, 07:49:03 pm
Quote
I find it hard to believe that Ford will be punished the same way as the others.


Don't look now, but Ford was down more than 15% today (to $2.19), in addition to yesterday's double digit loss.  What's to keep it up at this point?  The economy continues to nosedive; jobs continue to be lost; no-one in their right mind is going to be buying cars; housing prices continue to plunge; foreclosures continue to increase; and business will be bad for the foreseeable future.  You'll see a One handle on that Ford stock in the immediate future (maybe tomorrow) and it could easily end up below $1.

I don't see another big up move until Obama takes office.  We've got some time to find the next bottom in Ford stock.

Mike

Mike
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: phlemboy on December 23, 2008, 09:39:26 pm
I think that if enough smart investors look into Ford's balance sheet, they'll see that (at least for the next year or so) Ford should be able to hang on without any bailout money. But the question is, can they survive if GM or Chrysler goes under? How much money will they need to adapt to the different scenerios that would create? If they can hang on, wouldn't they stand to
increase their market share with GM out of the way? Here's my stategy. I'll buy when it hits under $2. Then I'll call Jim Cramer and ask him to "send some love" to the Ford stock  :beer
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S
Post by: Liquidity on January 05, 2009, 03:45:07 pm
That sounds great doesn't it???

But I can tell you from real money and real life experience that THIS is how that actually ends up working.....

You buy the stock intially at $3, then sell it for $4....All is right with the world....So you decide to just repeat this....You buy it back at $3.50 and sell it at $6......But then something goes wrong...
You never get another chance to buy BACK IN at $4 because right after you sold at $6 the stock went to $10!!!

This is the MENTAL part of playing the stock market.....Think about this...You just sold 10,000 shares at $6.00......You have $60,000 in your trading account but NOW...BUYING BACK those same 10,000 shares costs you $100,000 :banghead :banghead :banghead

This is what screws all new traders.....They have the right stock, at the right time, at the right PRICE....Then they BLOW IT by trying to be SMART....NO ONE...with the exception of an absolute PRO TRADER is BUYING that stock BACK at $100,000 when they just OWNED it at $30,000......The mental hurdle is just TOO HIGH. 

See.........If you had just KEPT the stock at $3.00 your total $30,000 investment would then be worth $100,000.  If the stock goes to $20....You now have $200,000. 

Believe me......You are NOT going to trade this stock in and out and NOT have this exact thing happen to you at some point.

How do you think I learned this????


that is very true. especially the mental part.

another thing that has been eating me alive lately missing a huge move on a stock you have been following, trading, you basically know enough to run the company. Mine was DRYS the day it went up to 4.75, I had money being settled, it closed @ 4.20's so i wasnt too worried because its volatile. I was planning on parking a large amount of my investing money on it because its way undervalued. next day it gaps up huge, I'm not buying it now it went up i think 50% or more that day. basically it went to 12 then back tracked and is still moving up now. i coulda , woulda, shoulda made 200k atleast and thats being modest on exit point. I did make some money on it after its back track.  got in @ 9 and out in high 12's. 

many people have no idea what it feels like.  Everytime i see DRYS name on cnbc I am cussing in my head and out loud too lol. I play back those days in my damn head, wishing i had done something different. it's tough to let it go. I have been hoping that it would go back to $5 but it seems now its trading on stimulus spending hopes. It actually should not be this high right now but traders are putting alot of value on stimulus plans of mainly china and usa. 
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: rookieNYC on January 05, 2009, 05:16:43 pm
shoulda made 200k ?????????

LOL..I would never put that kind of size money into *any* one stock..An index etf definitely,but a stock never..Especially DRYS...A guy I work with has a ton of LVS and I wont touch it..You guys must have big $$$$ to bet that much on a single stock...Before i went away I bought 12 different bond funds,from junk to international...I'm up about %4 net overall and I'm happy as can be..I guess my risk tolerance has diminished in a big way..It's nice to see you guys keeping it alive,but 200k on DRYS...Man I'd hate to see your P&L on a bad day...Best of luck on future trades..I'm puzzled as to what will keep moving this market higher..I'm not fighting the trend but at the same time I'm not loading the boat,not that I ever do..Oh I did buy a handful of closed end funds today...Small,like 125k spread out amongst 10 different funds...From reits,US stock,inter stock,debt etc..I'm also sitting back collecting in the area of $8000 a month in dividends from my total portfolio...Yields are too high to let it go by,I want to be paid to be in this market...Best of luck all...

Oh sorry about not posting my entries...poster *allagash* can vouch for me though..While I was away I emailed him my funds and days of entry and $$$$ invested....No dream trades here..Also told him I bought 20k worth of call options on TBT about 2 weeks ago..Check those babies out...$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S
Post by: Liquidity on January 05, 2009, 08:20:51 pm
rookie

I'm trying to get where your at then ill be more conservative. thats ironic you mentioned LVS. that's another stock that i had on my watchlist this morning up 20%. DRYS i felt very comfortable at $4, i can only lose the $4 and thats if it went BK. they have locked in 60% rates for years to come, given thats not a high % with bulkers but they have an offshore drillrig buisness that will be given as a dividend share per share that alone made it worth more than $4. DRY ships being that low was way out of line, it was priced at bankruptcy levels.  I'm greek also so i guess it's a loyalty play lol.

the stocks im looking at today were
DXO (wanted a pullback to get back in, not happening :evil)
DZZ bought 500 shares (my 1st buy will add if i have to if it moves against me)
DRYS (up again today)
LVS (might play this tomorrow, i think it will have 1 more day of run left.. this is a short term trade only stock.)
FNM  ( was gonna buy 30k at .80 but it missed my order by 3 tenths of a cent. I'm kinda iffy about fnm though the money they're putting into mortgages should make it run up, i think, then again the housing sector is a disaster and they have construction reports tomorrow, will the bad news be ignored or will it go down along with the bad news.)
SKF


I'm puzzled to whats gonna fuel this markets rise too. im kinda puzzled to why its still going up now lol

Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S
Post by: bdub on February 09, 2009, 03:45:04 pm
i am so glad i thought this made no sense last April...

from 6.88 then to 1.90 now.

trading well below the 50 and 200 day EMAs and trending lower.

fdjake was right on the day he said buy it...  but you should have sold it about a month later.  with gas prices way up and demand for trucks declining, it didn't make sense (to me) before the financial collapse.

i wish i would have known about FAZ and SKF and other 3x ETFs when they started...  fortunately, i do now.

you don't have to start trading in 10s of thousands to make money.  don't fall for that.  learn and go for it.
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: phlemboy on February 09, 2009, 03:57:00 pm
I believe fdjake was referring to the 2010 options on Ford. He was also talking about it being more of a long term trade. I think that Ford is in a  good position to weather the storm until the economy improves and people start wanting to buy cars again. They're not taking one dime of the bailout. The just need a $9 Billion backstop if they need it due to a failure of one of the others. The govt. won't let Ford fail. This is a classic contrarian move. IMO, Ford has a ton of longterm upside and very little risk.
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: rookieNYC on February 09, 2009, 04:21:04 pm
Ford has a ton of longterm upside and very little risk.

Ford is a piece of dogsh*t...If you are going to own Ford you should buy GM also..There is no sense of taking the risk on just Ford...Very little risk?...They are just talkling today about mandatory bankruptcies in the auto industry..No risk?..LOL...If the govt bankrupts GM and Chrysler it will greatly effect Ford..Ford has been and will be for many years a worthless trade..Sideways at best..Who needs that type of trade..Much better trades to have out there than this garbage...
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: allagash on February 09, 2009, 05:32:54 pm
Quote
Ford is a piece of dogsh*t

Quote
Who needs that type of trade..Much better trades to have out there than this garbage...

I'd have to agree....at least for the present moment....it just lays there like a pile of crap.

Take Friday's S&P 500 rally of 2.6%.

Consider both C & F.....two stocks currently under $5 bucks each.

Ford for the day..........>Open: $1.94  Close: $1.94     
Citigroup for the day...>Open: $3.18  Close: $3.91  123%

That said, when they, (along with Chrysler and GM), were coming back to DC after Pelosi sent them home the first time....the momentum there made for a very nice trade...(personally cleared 140% within 48 hours).

-Mike




Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: phlemboy on February 10, 2009, 07:56:00 am
I don't understand how Ford can go into BK anytime soon. If they have enough cash to survive for the next year and they have a govt. that will serve as a backstop if needed, isn't that enough to keep the stock from going 0? I think GM and Chrysler are in big trouble even with a bailout. It appears they're bleeding too much too fast. I'm talking about a 2 yr. timeframe for a Ford turnaround. Certainly not a short term trade. What am I missing?
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: fdjake on February 22, 2009, 07:25:27 pm
This is the stuff you need to watch.

CAPTURE RATES.........Capture rates in the automobile business are sales TAKEN from another maker. In other words...Someone brings in a GM or Honda (to a Ford dealership) and trades it in on a new Ford product. Ford's capture rates are climbing.

They will also benefit from ANY bankruptcy by GM or Chrysler.  Concessions that a bankruptcy would force down GM and Chryslers throats would also apply to Ford.  Ford is CURRENTLY getting additional concessions  that GM and Chrysler are hammering out NOW with a much more willing to deal UAW.  This is happening now.

Ford isn't out of the woods.  It could still go bad.  BUT......

PAY ATTENTION........

When you see people moving from OTHER makers INTO Ford products that is TELLING us something.  Correction.....It's not TELLING us.....It's SCREAMING at us.

Think it's all just BS?????

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123508913836428083.html
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: phlemboy on February 22, 2009, 09:26:23 pm
That's a good article. I think its important to remember that Ford's stock will probably stay low for a while. I get the feeling that there will be time to buy the stock low. But that's some good insight on indicators and what they mean. Thanx Fdjake.
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: fdjake on February 23, 2009, 07:19:30 am
You are 100% correct.

As Rookie as said.....This stock is gonna be dead money for a while.

The thing I enjoy about this type of investing is being OUT FRONT.  It's like watching a chess game.  You see small moves being made, strategy being applied, and results (good or bad) occuring.

WATCH.......WATCH.......WATCH

Even if you NEVER buy a single share of Ford stock.......Simply WATCHING how these events unfold will teach you VOLUMES about investing. 

I'll continue to post any interesting items I find and will also try an explain my thought process regarding Ford as an investment.

This is the way I work.....It's not right for everyone, and I'm sure there are easier, quicker ways to make money......But in my experience, getting a turn around investment like this right.....Can LITERALLY, change your financial life. 

It's very early in the game, but small indicators WILL show up, the KEY is to PAY ATTENTION.


Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: propertymanager on February 23, 2009, 08:35:58 am
FDJake,

How about discussing your thoughts on your QQQQ puts?  Do you still think they will be ok before June?   Also, what are your thoughts on the market in general.  I believe that the government is doing everything possible to defend the DOW at about 7,700.  Do you think they can continue to juggle all these balls?

My personal belief is that things are still getting much worse and that the trillions they are spending on these bailouts is making things worse. 

I received two letters from Bank of America last week informing me that my check cashing privileges were being suspended on my business lines of credit.  After thinking about it, I believe that is because they don't have the money to lend.  Their market cap has collapsed and they are in trouble.  I must be one of their best customers - never been late on any bill and credit score of 772 - therefore, if they can't lend me money, who can they lend money to?  Obviously, Citigroup is in even worse shape. 

What do you think?  Give me a full report!

Mike
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: fdjake on February 23, 2009, 02:10:13 pm
Nothing has changed in my original assessment.  We have been b*llsh*tted at EVERY TURN.....

2005......Home owners might benefit from some of the new ARM mortgages. (Alan Greenspan) :bs
2006.......Home prices won't crash, this is just a normal correction and GOOD for the market.  We expect prices to rise by 10% next year. :bs
2007.......A reccession is NOT in the cards for America :bs
2007.......Sub-prime is CONTAINED and is not a worry for the banking system. :bs
2008.......This is the BOTTOM of the market....BUY BUY BUY....(it SHOULD have been BYE BYE BYE) :bs
2009........We expect a BIG RALLY in 2009 and an economic recovery by the second half. :banghead :banghead :banghead :bs

This market is doing EXACTLY what the market did in 1929.

The CRASH everyone learned about that occured in October of 29 was JUST THE BEGINNING.  The REAL Crash occured much later and saw the dow drop to an eventual 90% LOSS!!!!!!!

As far as those Q's go.......

I think things are about to get VERY INTERESTING , VERY QUICKLY.  Once the market really BREAKS, any investment that INCREASES as the idexes DECREASE will see people PILING into it just as they did with OIL, COMMODITIES, TREASURIES, ect.   The writting is on the wall folks.  What we have is a market HOPING that it won't break to new lows.  Once that hope is GONE (IF that happens)  The "run to the doors" should be spectacular!!!!!

PATIENCE BOYS.....PATIENCE.

Why would ANYONE believe the talking heads on Wall St.  They have been wrong at every turn.  I've said this before, and I'll say it again.....It's now about.....

JOBS
JOBS
JOBS
JOBS
JOBS

The Goverment under that DOPE Bush had a window of opportunity in early 2007.  It's possible a complete disaster COULD have been averted had they steeped in at that time.   But.......NOOOOO......Good ole free market George WAITED.......He thought the MARKETS could and would police themselves.......Well....Guess what???????   GEORGE WAS RIGHT!!!!!
The markets ARE policing themselves......They will crash to lows most people RIGHT NOW can't get their heads around.  We will throw TRILLION$ down a black hole trying to stop an avalanche.  AIN'T HAPPENING!!!!
WE BUILT THIS SH*T BOX.......Now we're ALL gonna RIDE IT!!!

2 very smart people recently made the following comment.  EVERYONE on this site should pay VERY CLOSE attention to this little sentence.

"At some point in the near future......The price of GOLD will be equal to the DOW!!!!"   

Target price for that??????

$4000/oz for gold and 4000 points for the dow.

Think that's BS?????

It's happened twice before......

1930's
1970's

http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2009/02/marc-faberone-day-price-of-gold-will-be.html

Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: rookieNYC on February 23, 2009, 06:02:24 pm
"At some point in the near future......The price of GOLD will be equal to the DOW!!!!"   

I have heard different opinions on where gold will end up..I just dont like jumping on the gloom and doom wagon at 7100 DOW...Nor am I loading the boat here..Did I do some small buying today,yes I did..I bought at 3:58 pm on a basket order (small) and I bought stocks not etf's..I will most likely take pain and take a stop if market doesnt bounce tomorrow..I just cant fathom the level of blood I'm seeing..I know cheap can get cheaper and it may very well do so tomorrow..I'm taking a shot here on the long side for a trade...I wish I had the nerve to own some stock here and have the ability to look at it in 5 years..We already lost 1 decade (recently) in the equity markets,you think we lose 2?...I'd bet that we are close to the bottom of this downslide...Even Dr.Doom only predicted %20 more downside in the markets and we are there already just about...At some point this steak is overcooked and I just feel it may be bounce time...
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: propertymanager on February 23, 2009, 06:42:18 pm
Quote
..I just dont like jumping on the gloom and doom wagon at 7100 DOW...

Weren't you the one that said that during the depression stock fell sharply at the beginning of the depression and then had a SLOW GRIND to the bottom (which was a 90% loss)?  If so, then we've got a LONG WAY TO GO.

It seems to me that we're in that slow grind.  I don't see or hear about any capitulation, quite the contrary - it seems to be business as usual (abeit an ugly normal).  Furthermore, with all the talking heads saying that we're at the bottom on a daily basis, that is excellent evidence that we're no where near the bottom.  Where's the panic?  Who's throwing in the towel?  I'm not seeing it yet and I'm not hearing normal people talk about it.

Mike
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: rookieNYC on February 23, 2009, 06:47:25 pm
Weren't you the one that said that during the depression stock fell sharply at the beginning of the depression

Yes that was me...I just feel like we are overdone here..At least for the short term (days)...Capitualtion?...The market is decimated,down %50-%80 ...Some stocks have lost %99.. AIG LVS etc...This getting done rather quickly imho..I may be wrong,who knows...Long term?..long term for me is minutes...But yes I do feel over a 5 year period equities will be a very good investment...I wont take the bet though because I check every few seconds and I would never last..
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: fdjake on February 23, 2009, 06:59:32 pm
I thought this was interesting......

August 26, 1929...............   DOW 380.33

October 27, 1930.............    Dow 184.89 (anyone else here find it amazing that those lows are almost to the MONTH the same ours)

Now at THAT point the dow had a comparable loss to our current market ( 50% decline)

The PROBLEM?????

Anyone who thought they were SMART buying stocks at this level had NO IDEA what waited for them....

July 5, 1932......................    DOW....................41.63!!!!!!!!!!!!!

That ain't a typo.........  41.63  or a 90% LOSS

Things are DIFFERENT now compared to then.......right????

Yep, they sure are........

THEY had no sub-prime
THEY had no CDO's
THEY had a FRACTION of the DEBT this country now carries
THEY had businesses that actually MADE THINGS
They had people who's entire LIVES were built around SACRIFICE

Yea....things are different now........THAT could never happen to US....

Yea.......It's gonna be WORSE...........WATCH!!!

Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: rookieNYC on February 24, 2009, 01:32:14 pm
Did I do some small buying today,yes I did..I bought at 3:58 pm on a basket order (small) and I bought stocks not etf's.

02/23/2009  YOU BOUGHT  
  AFL  AFLAC INC  
 Basket Trade - BASKET: dow
Margin Shares: +401.000  Price: $15.8176  Amount: -$6,350.86  
  Comm: $8.00  
 Settlement Date: 02/26/2009
02/23/2009  YOU BOUGHT  
  AXP  AMERICAN EXPRESS CO  
 Basket Trade - BASKET: dow
Margin Shares: +502.000  Price: $12.1286  Amount: -$6,096.56  
  Comm: $8.00  
 Settlement Date: 02/26/2009
02/23/2009  YOU BOUGHT  
  BA  BOEING CO  
 Basket Trade - BASKET: dow
Margin Shares: +199.000  Price: $34.4582  Amount: -$6,865.18  
  Comm: $8.00  
 Settlement Date: 02/26/2009
02/23/2009  YOU BOUGHT  
  BNI  BURLINGTON NORTHERN SANTA FE CORP  
 Basket Trade - BASKET: dow
Margin Shares: +199.000  Price: $59.0984  Amount: -$11,768.58  
  Comm: $8.00  
 Settlement Date: 02/26/2009
02/23/2009  YOU BOUGHT  
  CAT  CATERPILLAR INC  
 Basket Trade - BASKET: dow
Margin Shares: +250.000  Price: $25.0984  Amount: -$6,282.60  
  Comm: $8.00  
 Settlement Date: 02/26/2009
02/23/2009  YOU BOUGHT  
  CHD  CHURCH & DWIGHT INC  
 Basket Trade - BASKET: dow
Margin Shares: +199.000  Price: $48.9678  Amount: -$9,752.59  
  Comm: $8.00  
 Settlement Date: 02/26/2009
02/23/2009  YOU BOUGHT  
  CPB  CAMPBELL SOUP CO  
 Basket Trade - BASKET: dow
Margin Shares: +199.000  Price: $28.5982  Amount: -$5,699.04  
  Comm: $8.00  
 Settlement Date: 02/26/2009
02/23/2009  YOU BOUGHT  
  CVX  CHEVRON CORP NEW  
 Basket Trade - BASKET: dow
Margin Shares: +200.000  Price: $62.7778  Amount: -$12,563.56  
  Comm: $8.00  
 Settlement Date: 02/26/2009
02/23/2009  YOU BOUGHT  
  DD  DU PONT E I DE NEMOURS & CO  
 Basket Trade - BASKET: dow
Margin Shares: +299.000  Price: $18.8784  Amount: -$5,652.64  
  Comm: $8.00  
 Settlement Date: 02/26/2009
02/23/2009  YOU BOUGHT  
  DEO  DIAGEO PLC ISIN #US25243Q2057  
 Basket Trade - BASKET: dow
Margin Shares: +198.000  Price: $48.1278  Amount: -$9,537.30  
  Comm: $8.00  
 Settlement Date: 02/26/2009
02/23/2009  YOU BOUGHT  
  DOW  DOW CHEMICAL CO  
 Basket Trade - BASKET: dow
Margin Shares: +698.000  Price: $7.4282  Amount: -$5,192.88  
  Comm: $8.00  
 Settlement Date: 02/26/2009
02/23/2009  YOU BOUGHT  
  DUK  DUKE ENERGY CORP NEW COM  
 Basket Trade - BASKET: dow
Margin Shares: +500.000  Price: $13.9069  Amount: -$6,961.45  
  Comm: $8.00  
 Settlement Date: 02/26/2009
02/23/2009  YOU BOUGHT  
  ED  CONSOLIDATED EDISON HLDG CO INC  
 Basket Trade - BASKET: dow
Margin Shares: +200.000  Price: $37.0178  Amount: -$7,411.56  
  Comm: $8.00  
 Settlement Date: 02/26/2009
02/23/2009  YOU BOUGHT  
  ENB  ENBRIDGE INC COM ISIN #CA29250N1050 SED  
 Basket Trade - BASKET: dow
Margin Shares: +199.000  Price: $30.848  Amount: -$6,146.75  
  Comm: $8.00  
 Settlement Date: 02/26/2009
02/23/2009  YOU BOUGHT  
  FRO  FRONTLINE LTD SHS ISIN #BMG3682E1277 SE  
 Basket Trade - BASKET: dow
Margin Shares: +299.000  Price: $22.3974  Amount: -$6,704.82  
  Comm: $8.00  
 Settlement Date: 02/26/2009
02/23/2009  YOU BOUGHT NFS CROSS TRADE  
  GE  GENERAL ELECTRIC CO  
 Basket Trade - BASKET: dow
Margin Shares: +700.000  Price: $8.81  Amount: -$6,175.00  
  Comm: $8.00  
 Settlement Date: 02/26/2009
02/23/2009  YOU BOUGHT  
  GS  GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC  
 Basket Trade - BASKET: dow
Margin Shares: +99.000  Price: $80.24  Amount: -$7,951.76  
  Comm: $8.00  
 Settlement Date: 02/26/2009
02/23/2009  YOU BOUGHT  
  INTC  INTEL CORP  
 Basket Trade - BASKET: dow
Margin Shares: +500.000  Price: $12.0876  Amount: -$6,051.80  
  Comm: $8.00  
 Settlement Date: 02/26/2009
02/23/2009  YOU BOUGHT  
  JNJ  JOHNSON & JOHNSON  
 Basket Trade - BASKET: dow
Margin Shares: +200.000  Price: $53.6178  Amount: -$10,731.56  
  Comm: $8.00  
 Settlement Date: 02/26/2009
02/23/2009  YOU BOUGHT  
  KFT  KRAFT FOODS INC CL A  
 Basket Trade - BASKET: dow
Margin Shares: +300.000  Price: $22.9584  Amount: -$6,895.52  
  Comm: $8.00  
 Settlement Date: 02/26/2009
02/23/2009  YOU BOUGHT  
  KO  COCA COLA CO  
 Basket Trade - BASKET: dow
Margin Shares: +200.000  Price: $42.1278  Amount: -$8,433.56  
  Comm: $8.00  
 Settlement Date: 02/26/2009
02/23/2009  YOU BOUGHT  
  LFC  CHINA LIFE INS CO LTD SPON ADR REPSTG H  
 Basket Trade - BASKET: dow
Margin Shares: +199.000  Price: $42.726  Amount: -$8,510.47  
  Comm: $8.00  
 Settlement Date: 02/26/2009
02/23/2009  YOU BOUGHT  
  MCD  MCDONALDS CORP  
 Basket Trade - BASKET: dow
Margin Shares: +200.000  Price: $53.8678  Amount: -$10,781.56  
  Comm: $8.00  
 Settlement Date: 02/26/2009
02/23/2009  YOU BOUGHT  
  MMM  3M COMPANY  
 Basket Trade - BASKET: dow
Margin Shares: +200.000  Price: $45.438  Amount: -$9,095.60  
  Comm: $8.00  
 Settlement Date: 02/26/2009
02/23/2009  YOU BOUGHT NFS CROSS TRADE  
  MO  ALTRIA GROUP INC  
 Basket Trade - BASKET: dow
Margin Shares: +399.000  Price: $15.05  Amount: -$6,012.95  
  Comm: $8.00  
 Settlement Date: 02/26/2009
02/23/2009  YOU BOUGHT  
  MSFT  MICROSOFT CORP  
 Basket Trade - BASKET: dow
Margin Shares: +399.000  Price: $17.2578  Amount: -$6,893.86  
  Comm: $8.00  
 Settlement Date: 02/26/2009
02/23/2009  YOU BOUGHT BASKET: BASKET: dow  
  OKS  ONEOK PARTNERS L P UNIT LTD PARTNERSHIP  
Margin Shares: +199.000  Price: $40.9374  Amount: -$8,154.54  
  Comm: $8.00  
 Settlement Date: 02/26/2009
02/23/2009  YOU BOUGHT  
  OSG  OVERSEAS SHIPHOLDING GROUP INC  
 Basket Trade - BASKET: dow
Margin Shares: +199.000  Price: $27.0681  Amount: -$5,394.55  
  Comm: $8.00  
 Settlement Date: 02/26/2009
02/23/2009  YOU BOUGHT  
  PEP  PEPSICO INC  
 Basket Trade - BASKET: dow
Margin Shares: +199.000  Price: $50.148  Amount: -$9,987.45  
  Comm: $8.00  
 Settlement Date: 02/26/2009
02/23/2009  YOU BOUGHT  
  PFG  PRINCIPAL FINANCIAL GROUP  
 Basket Trade - BASKET: dow
Margin Shares: +602.000  Price: $9.3782  Amount: -$5,653.68  
  Comm: $8.00  
 Settlement Date: 02/26/2009
02/23/2009  YOU BOUGHT  
  PM  PHILIP MORRIS INTL INC COM  
 Basket Trade - BASKET: dow
Margin Shares: +199.000  Price: $35.1178  Amount: -$6,996.44  
  Comm: $8.00  
 Settlement Date: 02/26/2009
02/23/2009  YOU BOUGHT  
  QQQQ  POWERSHARES QQQ TR UNIT SER 1  
 Basket Trade - BASKET: dow
Margin Shares: +199.000  Price: $27.838  Amount: -$5,547.76  
  Comm: $8.00  
 Settlement Date: 02/26/2009
02/23/2009  YOU BOUGHT  
  SI  SIEMENS A G SPON ADR ISIN #US8261975010  
 Basket Trade - BASKET: dow
Margin Shares: +199.000  Price: $50.8087  Amount: -$10,118.93  
  Comm: $8.00  
 Settlement Date: 02/26/2009
02/23/2009  YOU BOUGHT  
  SNY  SANOFI-AVENTIS SPONSORED ADR FORMERLY S  
 Basket Trade - BASKET: dow
Margin Shares: +199.000  Price: $28.0278  Amount: -$5,585.53  
  Comm: $8.00  
 Settlement Date: 02/26/2009
02/23/2009  YOU BOUGHT  
  T  AT&T INC COM  
 Basket Trade - BASKET: dow
Margin Shares: +298.000  Price: $22.7378  Amount: -$6,783.86  
  Comm: $8.00  
 Settlement Date: 02/26/2009
02/23/2009  YOU BOUGHT  
  TGT  TARGET CORP  
 Basket Trade - BASKET: dow
Margin Shares: +200.000  Price: $28.4682  Amount: -$5,701.64  
  Comm: $8.00  
 Settlement Date: 02/26/2009
02/23/2009  YOU BOUGHT  
  UNP  UNION PACIFIC CORP  
 Basket Trade - BASKET: dow
Margin Shares: +199.000  Price: $37.82  Amount: -$7,534.18  
  Comm: $8.00  
 Settlement Date: 02/26/2009
02/23/2009  YOU BOUGHT  
  USB  US BANCORP DEL COM NEW  
 Basket Trade - BASKET: dow
Margin Shares: +500.000  Price: $11.3582  Amount: -$5,687.10  
  Comm: $8.00  
 Settlement Date: 02/26/2009
02/23/2009  YOU BOUGHT  
  UTX  UNITED TECHNOLOGIES CORP  
 Basket Trade - BASKET: dow
Margin Shares: +199.000  Price: $42.3784  Amount: -$8,441.30  
  Comm: $8.00  
 Settlement Date: 02/26/2009
02/23/2009  YOU BOUGHT  
  VNQ  VANGUARD INDEX FDS FORMERLY VANGUARD IN  
 Basket Trade - BASKET: dow
Margin Shares: +301.000  Price: $23.8877  Amount: -$7,198.20  
  Comm: $8.00  
 Settlement Date: 02/26/2009
02/23/2009  YOU BOUGHT  
  VZ  VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS  
 Basket Trade - BASKET: dow
Margin Shares: +199.000  Price: $27.8778  Amount: -$5,555.68  
  Comm: $8.00  
 Settlement Date: 02/26/2009
02/23/2009  YOU BOUGHT  
  WFC  WELLS FARGO & CO NEW  
 Basket Trade - BASKET: dow
Margin Shares: +597.000  Price: $11.0884  Amount: -$6,627.77  
  Comm: $8.00  
 Settlement Date: 02/26/2009
02/23/2009  YOU BOUGHT  
  WMT  WAL-MART STORES INC  
 Basket Trade - BASKET: dow
Margin Shares: +200.000  Price: $48.9378  Amount: -$9,795.56  
  Comm: $8.00  
 Settlement Date: 02/26/2009
02/23/2009  YOU BOUGHT  
  XOM  EXXON MOBIL CORP  
 Basket Trade - BASKET: dow
Margin Shares: +200.000  Price: $69.4078  Amount: -$13,889.56  
  Comm: $8.00  
 Settlement Date: 02/26/2009
02/23/2009  YOU BOUGHT FCMS SMART ROUTER  
  YUM  YUM! BRANDS INC  
 Basket Trade - BASKET: dow
Margin Shares: +99.000  Price: $27.48  Amount: -$2,720.52  
 Settlement Date: 02/26/2009
02/23/2009  YOU BOUGHT FCMS SMART ROUTER  
  YUM  YUM! BRANDS INC  
 Basket Trade - BASKET: dow
Margin Shares: +100.000  Price: $27.475  Amount: -$2,755.50  
  Comm: $8.00  
 Settlement Date: 02/26/2009


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Order Number:B24BCNSL  Details  Filled at $52.45  
Sell 401 Shares of AFL
Order Number:B24BCPSV  Details  Filled at $16.24  
Sell 99 Shares of GS
Order Number:B24BCPWK  Details  Filled at $82.00  
Sell 199 Shares of SNY
Order Number:B24BCQBK  Details  Verified Canceled  
Sell 199 Shares of SNY
Order Number:B24BCQCW  Details  Filled at $28.62  
Sell 597 Shares of WFC
Order Number:B24BCQJV  Details  Filled at $11.2251  
Sell 199 Shares of BA
Order Number:B24BCZRN  Details  Verified Canceled  
Sell 199 Shares of BA
Order Number:B24BCZXD  Details  Verified Canceled  
Sell 200 Shares of MCD
Order Number:B24BDCGD  Details  Filled at $54.355  
Sell 200 Shares of XOM
Order Number:B24BDDJK  Details  Filled at $69.80  
Sell 700 Shares of GE
Order Number:B24BDFGC  Details  Filled at $9.02  
Sell 698 Shares of DOW
Order Number:B24BDGNL  Details  Verified Canceled  
Sell 698 Shares of DOW
Order Number:B24BDGTJ  Details  Verified Canceled  
Sell 198 Shares of DEO
Order Number:B24BDJFK  Details  Filled at $48.5552  
Sell 199 Shares of PEP
Order Number:B24BDJKP  Details  Filled at $50.71  
Sell 502 Shares of AXP
Order Number:B24BDJQS  Details  Filled at $12.30  
Sell 200 Shares of CVX
Order Number:B24BDJXJ  Details  Verified Canceled  
Sell 200 Shares of CVX
Order Number:B24BDKBW  Details  Filled at $63.23  
Sell 200 Shares of JNJ
Order Number:B24BDLBV  Details  Filled at $53.93  
Sell 500 Shares of INTC
Order Number:B24BDNSH  Details  Filled at $12.15  
Sell 199 Shares of QQQQ
Order Number:B24NBFGD  Details  Verified Canceled  
Sell 199 Shares of QQQQ
Order Number:B24NBFKT  Details  Filled at $28.08  
Sell 301 Shares of VNQ
Order Number:B24NBPGZ  Details  Filled at $24.1223  
Sell 602 Shares of PFG
Order Number:B24NBRGQ  Details  Filled at $9.5072  
Sell 199 Shares of BNI
Order Number:B24NBTVC  Details  Filled at $59.6896  
Sell 698 Shares of DOW
Order Number:B24NBXRQ  Details  Filled at $7.5318  
Sell 199 Shares of YUM
Order Number:B24NCCMF  Details  Filled at $27.88  
Sell 299 Shares of DD
Order Number:B24NCFFB  Details  Filled at $19.0816  
Sell 199 Shares of ENB
Order Number:B24NCHHX  Details  Filled at $31.182  
Sell 200 Shares of WMT
Order Number:B24NCKHR  Details  Filled at $49.5322  
Sell 199 Shares of CHD
Order Number:B24NCLKL  Details  Filled at $49.63  
Sell 500 Shares of DUK
Order Number:B24NCMQK  Details  Filled at $14.1931  
Sell 199 Shares of LFC
Order Number:B24NCNZG  Details  Filled at $43.32  
Sell 200 Shares of MMM
Order Number:B24NDCBP  Details  Filled at $45.762  
Sell 199 Shares of UNP
Order Number:B24NDRKK  Details  Filled at $38.57  
Sell 199 Shares of OKS
Order Number:B24NDSVC  Details  Filled at $38.7632  
Sell 500 Shares of USB
Order Number:B24NDTQX  Details  Filled at $10.7418  
Sell 199 Shares of BA
Order Number:B24NGMCQ  Details  Filled at $34.8509  
Sell 199 Shares of VZ
Order Number:B24NGNXX  Details  Filled at $28.3722  
Sell 399 Shares of MO
Order Number:B24NGQKP  Details  Filled at $15.25  
Sell 199 Shares of OSG
Order Number:B24NGRTL  Details  Filled at $27.4526  
Sell 199 Shares of UTX
Order Number:B24NGXXH  Details  Filled at $42.5916  
Sell 199 Shares of CPB
Order Number:B24NJMNS  Details  Filled at $28.2918  
Sell 250 Shares of CAT
Order Number:B24NJMTG  Details  Filled at $24.6716  
Sell 399 Shares of MSFT
Order Number:B24NJNHF  Details  Filled at $16.6422  
Sell 200 Shares of TGT
Order Number:B24NJNTT  Details  Filled at $27.34  
Sell 199 Shares of PM
Order Number:B24NJPFL  Details  Filled at $34.8122  
Sell 299 Shares of FRO
Order Number:B24NJPXN  Details  Filled at $21.9339  
Sell 298 Shares of T
Order Number:B24NLNSX  Details  Filled at $23.1022  



Made a little over $3k on the trades..NET....Not bad but I sold all day long at the wrong times ....Could have made double...I made a NET %1 on 300k worth of stock..no complaining here...

Lesson to the bears ,markets dont move in straight lines...
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: true9baller on February 24, 2009, 02:16:16 pm
Rookie,

Just curious since you mentioned you have a 7 figure account, but where do you do your trading? Online broker like etrade? or do you put in something like Goldman Sachs?

Just wondering where the big boys do their trading...BTW, I bought some GLD in the past few days (I'm too embarrassed to say how much, lol).  :banghead :banghead :banghead :banghead :banghead :banghead
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: rookieNYC on February 24, 2009, 02:19:31 pm
Just curious since you mentioned you have a 7 figure account,

Size of the account is irrelevant...I have multiple accounts ...I use Fidelity,interactivebrokers and I have a sweep account at work for size orders...When doing my small trades like the ones above I use Fidelity..IB is just to trade the spoos...
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: allagash on February 24, 2009, 02:49:33 pm
rookie...

what's your thought process here?

too much oversaturation with the etfs?

better leverage potential with "lower priced" stocks?

what's your thoughts on market data feed from Interactive Brokers?

Thanks...

-Mike
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: rookieNYC on February 24, 2009, 03:00:27 pm
Mike,
  My thoughts are I'm a blankin moron dumb SOB for selling like I did at the times I did today..I traded like an amateur and made an amateurs pay on a day when i should have taken down size..Instead I make a crappy %1 when the market rallies %4...

My reason for buying stocks vs *proshare etfs* is to average out my volatility..Proshares will shake you out if you have size...Regular index etf's QQQQ..SPY etc I thought wouldnt give me the same bounce as way oversold stocks would..I was wrong...Most of my basket was dead wood..Dont get me wrong I made a few bucks but it shouldve been closer to 10k instead of 3k...I would have done much better just trading my blocks of QQQQ...Hindsight is 20/20...Lesson be learned to all who doubt the markets uncanny ability to bounce when others think Timber !!!....I stepped into the blood yesterday at 3:58pm to make my buys and I was grilled for it...Dont confuse a bull market with brains boys...
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: allagash on February 24, 2009, 03:09:08 pm
thanks for the reply.

was glad to see a rally today....

shows there's money still willing to commit to equities...

if equities are deemed "toxic" at some point....gonna be hard to sell to someone else.

-Mike
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: fdjake on February 24, 2009, 07:47:45 pm
Rookie,

Thanks for posting that list.

That's a lot of time and effort to just let us know what your doing.  I'm sure you have much better things to do.  The fact that you took the time out of your day to give everyone a look at your trading is.... I think, extremely generous.

Thanks,

Jake
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: rookieNYC on February 25, 2009, 07:24:12 am
Jake,
  My reason for posting (really cut and paste takes seconds) is to show others that I *really* did take entries into the day before's selloff..Also the people that call it speculation and luck etc burn my a$$..So I guess I keep getting lucky...I also post entries and exits to show how I do it for newbies..I often basket trade and even though it wasnt a profitable method for yesterday I still man up and show my mistakes even on a day when the markets were up %4..And yet another reason why I posted the trades was because people were talking the end of the world for the following trading day and I took the other side of that BS...Probability is the name of this game..When that rubber band is stretched so far it has to snap back,its just a matter of when and how hard...I had a %1 ROI in my mind and I made my goal..But the other day I had a much stronger ROI and gave it all back and ended up down $25 and was pissed..So I'm guessing that day played a role in my selling prematurely when I shouldve held longer..Well atleast I made a few bucks and helped some newbies understand how its really done...You can't get more truthful than the way I post my trades...Thats why I do it mainly...

Oh and as for time etc,the office has been very quiet and slow..We have been doing more default deals than equity related activity as of late..
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: allagash on February 25, 2009, 08:24:53 am
And I appreciate every keystroke of it....

Double gold long....or double gold short...on intra-day basis...is a lot more to my liking than a stab in the dark.

Here's my crude, (UCO), analogy:

In the '70's we had LPs....in the '90's....compact discs....now?

If you ain't digitized, you ain't with the program. 

-Mike
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IMsnqQHOwFg&NR=1
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: rookieNYC on February 25, 2009, 04:58:40 pm
Number of Orders:3
Order Status
Buy 15,000 Shares of QQQQ
Order Number:B25NLWQZ  Details  Filled at $28.72 
Sell 7,500 Shares of QQQQ
Order Number:B25NMXDL  Details  Filled at $29.0011 
Sell 7,500 Shares of QQQQ
Order Number:B25NMZMJ  Details  Filled at $29.02 


Made some size today in a down market....$4500 just about more or less...


This is a traders market...I did this trade from my blackberry while sitting in a room with 3 attorneys talking to me..After I sold it all I had to review the last 30 minutes because I didn't hear a word they said...LOL..
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: allagash on February 25, 2009, 05:18:56 pm
Quote
I did this trade from my blackberry while sitting in a room with 3 attorneys talking to me

krackberry kid strikes again...

-Mike
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: Rich_in_CT on February 26, 2009, 01:32:40 pm
Still reading through this entire thread.......while I read here is something to discuss:

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/feb2009/db20090223_998165.htm?chan=top+news_top+news+index+-+temp_news+%2B+analysis
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: rookieNYC on February 26, 2009, 02:56:52 pm
Buy 2,500 Shares of QQQQ
Order Number:B26NBSBG  Details  Filled at $28.6589 
Buy 1,000 Shares of QQQQ
Order Number:B26NBZGX  Details  Filled at $28.6385 
Buy 1,000 Shares of QQQQ
Order Number:B26NCFWG  Details  Filled at $28.4785 
Buy 500 Shares of QQQQ
Order Number:B26NCNSC  Details  Filled at $28.4879 
Sell 5,000 Shares of QQQQ
Order Number:B26NFTXT  Details  Filled at $28.8111 


Netted about .25 average on 5k shares....Another blackberry trade...From what Ive heard in my office alot of redemptions have been ordered..In our offices and other ones as well..People need the money and want out of this market..I feel bad for the long term investors,they have been mauled by this economy..

And about the trade I just kept averaging down and *hoping* for a bounce...Today was not a good day for probability...Today was luck...
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: Rich_in_CT on February 26, 2009, 03:07:23 pm
Just to let you guys know, unless something drastic happens in the next few days I'll be parking my meager retirement funds into Ford for a long term buy (no options).  I'm 28, my account is small (only one deposit from this year's SEP distribution) and frankly it isn't enough money that I'd be overly concerned.  The few grand that was in there a few years back got cleaned out when I had some bills to pay.  No distribution last year, guess the company didn't do well enough to warrant one.  I just recently was notified that I was getting one this year, $3300.  Check went in the mail a few days back.  Around then I decided I was going to buy 100% Ford stock with it.  Way I figure if I park it in mutual funds they'll probably tank or barely make me anything.  If Ford does what I think it will I'll see a massive gain in 3-4 years.  If they go bankrupt the downside risk is $3300......big freaking deal.  If I buy at $2 a share and it goes up to $8 which I think is a no-brainer I'll be over $13k from a $3300 investment, not too shabby.  If I lose it all, who cares.  Hell, it's only $3300 and I'm 28......not going to be retiring anytime soon.  If I lose it all I'm no worse off than I was a month ago, if it does what I think it will I've got a healthy start to my retirement account.  Only thing bumming me out is that in the few days since I decided to do this it has gone up about 12-15%, hopefully when the check shows up at Fidelity to fund my account it will have slid a bit. 
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: propertymanager on February 26, 2009, 03:32:05 pm
Stock that are near bankruptcy are very volatile.  Yes, it's up a bunch in the past few days, and if you have a little patience, it will likely be down again.  I've had an order in to buy F at $1.25 for about a month.  I'm being patient and I feel quite confident that I will get it at that price.

Mike
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: Rich_in_CT on February 26, 2009, 03:35:58 pm
Honestly if I don't see it drop much I'm not going to waiting around hoping for it to drop.  I'll just buy in the the low 2's, better to buy it there then to wait for a better price and miss the boat. 
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: rookieNYC on February 26, 2009, 03:43:35 pm
Rich use the money to buy options in the indexes...Just because a stock is cheap doesnt mean its a decent idea to load up on it and hope for the best...If you said Im buying 2-3 cheap stocks that have potential I would have felt better..But to roll the dice on F which may very well make a move is something I dont feel secure about...But its your money and I wish you the best...
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: Rich_in_CT on February 26, 2009, 03:55:34 pm
Honestly, most cheap stocks are cheap for a reason (I think you said that in this thread).  Frankly there are none that I can readily think of that at their low prices I see as a value vs being straight garbage.  If you can think of any I'd be willing to listen.  I'm also tempted to shy away from options, from what I read here and what I read online I have enough knowledge to see how the concept works but I don't think I know enough to actually put my money into them.  Plus the way I look at it as long as Ford doesn't go belly up I'll eventually get my money back.  If it takes longer than 2 years, whatever.....I can wait.  With options if it takes longer than 2 years, and it might very well do that, I wasted my money. 
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: rookieNYC on February 26, 2009, 04:18:11 pm
With options if it takes longer than 2 years, and it might very well do that, I wasted my money.

Look into LEAPS...I would simply put the $3300 into a very aggressive growth fund...Ford and the car industry is dead wood and the business model is real dogsh*t...I understand your concept of wanting the most bang for your buck with buying a *cheap* stock...And yes I'm not a fan of Ford since this thread started when it was $8 per share...If you feel so strongly about Ford buy the LEAPS or buy Call options on it...You will increase your bang for the buck 10x...

And time frames shouldnt matter..If you bought options and they tripled in value you would have almost 10k...Now you can buy some stock or invest it somewhere else...With $3k work of stock you will get like 1500 shares give or take...Not much bang there...
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: fdjake on February 26, 2009, 06:49:01 pm
Rich,

JUST BUY THE FORD STOCK.

ANY bankruptcy in GM or Chrysler will have BIG benefits for Ford.  Think about it......The Goverment will try to find their way around some type of structured bankruptcy for GM and Chrysler.   

Ford has MORE TIME than GM or Chrysler.  THIS IS GIGANTIC!!!!

Think about this......Our government COMPLETELY screwed up by letting LEHMAN Bros fail.  That is now an acknowledged FACT.  Look at the results..........We are now THROWING money at the REMAINING banks because if THEY GO, the cascade effect will be mind boggling.

Ford is going to survive BECAUSE GM or Chrysler WILL NOT.  The Goverment will intially screw this up, the effects will be disasterous for the economy and market sentiment.  At that point.......

FORD WILL GET WHAT EVER IT NEEDS TO SURVIVE!!!

BUY THE STOCK.   When the economy eventually turns, the PENT UP DEMAND for autos will BLOW YOUR MIND.  This has happened in EVER RECESSION since automobiles have been in existance. 

So to recap......

Our Goverment WILL screw up the bankruptcy of GM or Chrysler by trying to "handle it".  When that happens all of America and everyone on Wall St. will COMPLETELY understand how Tear 1 parts suppliers located in EVERY STATE in the U.S. effect our economy.   Once that has been made clear, Ford.......will be given ANYTHING they need, as the LONE remaining U.S. auto maker.

You have the right idea.    BUY IT.....Don't play games.....When the stock is at double digits 5 to 6 years from now, it won't matter if you bought it at $1.50 or $2.00

What WILL matter is.........................YOU BOUGHT IT!!!!!

Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: Rich_in_CT on February 26, 2009, 08:44:28 pm
I'm with you Fd, win lose or draw.  I put my money where my mouth is, if I'm wrong so be it.  The other option is cash it out, give Uncle Sam his cut and take the rest a hour away to the casino and hit the blackjack table.
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: Rich_in_CT on February 27, 2009, 09:17:10 am
$1.84 now, ya baby.  Fidelity just got my check in the mail, should have my account info in the mail in the next day or so and be ready to trade.
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: propertymanager on February 27, 2009, 05:25:59 pm
If FDJake is right and the economy is about to tank, then it would be crazy to buy Ford stock at $2.00.  No-one is going to buy a car during a depression!  On the other hand, if you think the recession is over and the market is going straight up from here, then you'd be silly not to buy right now at $2.00.

I'm betting that Obama is killing the economy with his socialist programs and all the "stimulus" in the world won't solve the economy.  Cap and trade; cutting down on the deduction for charitable giving; cutting down the mortgage interest deduction (in the middle of a real estate crisis); increasing taxes on entrepreneurs; raising taxes on nearly all tax paying Americans, etc are going to put us over the edge.  Wait and see!

Mike
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: Rich_in_CT on February 27, 2009, 05:32:14 pm
I don't by any means think it will be going up for a while, 2-3 years maybe it will be a lot prettier picture for Ford.  I'm not quite sure we've seen the bottom of the drop for Ford, not to say that it will cause me to wait to buy.  I'm trying to buy low, not really super concerned with nickle-diming for a slightly better price.  In fact I wouldn't be hugely shocked to see it hit a $1 towards the end of this year.
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: NoTiceViCtor on February 27, 2009, 07:32:29 pm
How can I transfer my 401 (k) to a F stock? Open a Roth 401 (k)?? Not every dime, but a high percentage of it I want to. Will Uncle Sam take taxes from it?
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: fdjake on February 27, 2009, 09:22:18 pm
I DO think the economy is about to tank....

But at UNDER $2.00/share for Ford stock..... THE BAD NEWS IS ALREADY PRICED IN.

I've said this before....

You can PLAY with this stock or you can BUY it.  People who "play" with these things usually get BURNED.  It happens because at some point they OWN the stock for lets say $1.50.  They trade in and out of it for short money (maybe making $1000 here and there)   Then it happens....

The stock price MOVES UP on them but they're OUT ......They OWNED IT at $1.50 and now have to pay $5.00 for the same stock.  THEY GET PARALIZED.  They sit and watch in disbelief.....Then the stock moves to even HIGHER.   At that point they just CAN NOT buy back in.  HUGE, HUGE, COMMON MISTAKE.
Buying something BACK at 3 or 4 TIMES what you once owned it for is VERY DIFFICULT.

Call this stock what you want, DEAD MONEY, CRAP, Dog Sh*T, I could care less....I've seen this movie before...bought the ticket, the stock AND the t-shirt.  YOU'LL LOVE THE ENDING.

One thing is now absolutely clear.
IF....and it's and IF......ANY American car company is going to survive...

FORD......... IS WAY out front among it's domestic competition.

BUY it....Then forget you own it.

PS....Ford is going to close the sale of Volvo within months.  $3 to $6 BILLION are the estimates for the sale.  At that point Ford will have cut loose ALL the GARBAGE _Premier Auto Group_ makes they bought decades ago.

Here's a quick list of the LOSERS Ford won't be POURING money into anymore.....

Jaguar
Land Rover
Aston Martin
Volvo

Mulally is going EXACTLY what he said he would do.

Another little GEM no one here seems to be paying attention to......

Fords quality has moved up so much that the company SAVED $2 BILLION last year in warranty costs.
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: Rich_in_CT on February 27, 2009, 10:00:28 pm
Too bad I won't get enough of a return to buy a car from one of those former brands, an Aston Martin Vanquish would look nice in my driveway.  I'd be quite happy with a Ford GT too.
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: Rich_in_CT on February 27, 2009, 10:15:25 pm
Of course I could always just do mutual funds in my account. 

Like this winner (Vanguard is a big respected name right????):

http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/mutualfunds/performance.asp?symb=VFINX&sid=5254

Yeah, but they aren't all bad.....right?

Quote
"Out of almost 2,100 diversified retail U.S. stock mutual funds that are open to new investors, just 17 have positive returns for both the past 12 months and year-to-date, according to investment researcher Morningstar Inc."

Screw that, 17 out of 2100........blackjack is starting to sound like a safer bet.  Maybe craps?  Maybe push it all out on the hard 4?  Screw that, I'd rather put it all on blue oval.  From my point of view I'd say it's only about a 10% chance Ford will BK, I just don't forsee that as the reality right now based on what I'm seeing.  As long as it doesn't BK I win.  It won't skyrocket tomorrow but I'll get my money back and then some in the future, though the timeline is up in the air.
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: justin0419 on February 27, 2009, 10:43:09 pm
Fords quality has moved up so much that the company SAVED $2 BILLION last year in warranty costs.
Yeah, part of that $2 Billion was saved by them not fixing my truck under warranty.  Did you realize that Ford trucks only come with a 2 yr 10 month / 36K mile warranty?  No??  Neither did I.  The idiots at the dealership refused to fix a large list of problems by making tons of excuses.  Oh, and calls to Ford customer care???  Yeah, got me nowhere.  I even got asked why I was just bringing it in at the end of the warranty period for work.  My being out of the country for a few months serving our country was my reason. 
Had to get that off my chest when I saw something about their quality and saving warranty costs...
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: fdjake on February 28, 2009, 07:44:19 am
Sorry to hear that.  What kind of problems do you have with you truck???

Just to inform you.......Toyota which is considered the gold standard for reliability just decided to settle a class action lawsuit brought by THOUSANDS of owners whose ENGINES DIED AT 60,000 MILES!!!
Those engines SLUDGED, then seized.  COST TO FIX?????

$10,000 per engine and TOYOTA COVERED NONE OF THEM.

The owners fought back and finally won in court.  The terms of the settlement REQUIRE Toyota to cover their 4 and 6 cylinder engines to 100,000 miles.

They didn't do this out of the goodness of thier hearts.....They did it because they were FORCED TO.  Due to this and other quality issues of late CONSUMER REPORTS will no longer issue Toyota automatic preferred status on their cars.

Ford meanwhile, according to CONSUMER REPORTS, has quality which actually SURPASSES Toyota.

Let me know what's wrong with your truck.  I may be able to get you some assitance.
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: justin0419 on February 28, 2009, 08:57:08 am
This is on a 2005 F250 4x4 Crew Cab Diesel.  This was my "dream truck" and the first new vehicle I've ever bought.  I lost reverse in it at around 20K miles.  I actually got that one fixed.  When I went in toward the end of the warranty, the truck had an oil leak from some line on the back side of the engine (they fixed that one, but none of the other things), the ABS light was coming on, the integrated trailer brake controller would quit intermittently, and in large parts of the roof there were thin spots in the paint from the factory that started rusting.  The rust they blamed on "environmental issues" because that's a clause in the warranty.  The ABS and trailer controller they claimed they couldn't find a problem with.  I'd been in to complain about the trailer controller before with no results.  I had to take my truck from my worthless local Ford dealer to another one about 20 miles away because the a-hole service manager decided not to fix any of these things.  The only thing I got fixed at the other place was the oil line leak.  I even asked Ford corporate reps why they thought a service manager w/ no auto body experience was qualified to quote a reason for a rust problem on a <3 yr old truck.  They just said they were standing with him and refusing service just like they did on everything else.  I have an extended warranty on the truck, but it has a $100 deductible so I haven't tried using it yet since I don't want to pay them to look at it only to refuse the service.  Do I hate the truck so much that I want to get rid of it?  No, but I wish they would stand behind their product and fix problems they're supposed to fix. 
My former local Ford dealership has since closed down. 
I can only hope the service manager is flipping burgers somewhere refusing to put ketchup on the burgers...
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: Rich_in_CT on February 28, 2009, 03:25:00 pm
What part of the country are you in?  If you are in the northeast I can recommend a really good Ford dealer that might go to bat for you and help you get it rectified.
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: justin0419 on February 28, 2009, 11:40:29 pm
I was in WA state when all this happened.  Now I'm in MS.  I was gone most of last year so it's a year out of factory warranty now.  I grew up behind a Chevy dealership so I'm very familiar with how dealers hate warranty work.  Plain and simple, they weaseled out of it.  I just saw the comments about the quality and warranty and thought I'd share my experience.  This is probably the last new car/truck I'll buy and I really doubt I'll get a Ford again.  I've been really disappointed with the quality considering what the truck cost brand new. 
Ford has a pretty good market share overseas and I agree with a lot of stuff posted here, but I wish they would've stood behind their product better. 
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: rookieNYC on March 01, 2009, 06:44:26 am
Found On Road Dead....I could care less how much supposed value is in Fords stock...The company,the business model and the cars are still pieces of sh*t in my opinion...Buying American cars is still the single worst investment one can make...Total garbage...
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: fdjake on March 01, 2009, 06:54:25 am
That's a shame.

It would have cost your dealer  about $200 to repaint the roof and maybe the hood on that truck. (their cost)  

As far as the oil line leaking, I think that's a fairly minor issue and it did get fixed.

ABS light on in a vehicle 3 to 4 years old is very common. (ABS sensors are about $100 and about 10 minutes to install)  

The trailer brake controller is usually just a small electric ABS unit that modulates your trailers brakes.

I've got to say.....They fixed the transmission for you, they fixed the oil leak for you, the ABS light is really no different than needing brakes.  The sensors get cruddy up with everything that your truck druives through.

The reason Ford and GM offer shorter warranties on COMMERCIAL trucks is they take a beating.  They're purchased for heavy use.  

The paint issue is completely unacceptable.  If i were you I'd call your local TV consumer reporter.  Go down there in your military uniform and  explain that you were away serving your country and just tell them your story.  My guess is some local Ford dealer is going to step up to fix your problems just for the free press.
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: fdjake on March 01, 2009, 06:55:18 am
Thanks for that valuable insight!!!!

Buying a car ISN'T an INVESTMENT....It's called a PURCHASE.

You know what they say about opinions.......

Here's some FACTS

http://blogs.cars.com/kickingtires/2009/02/warranty-costs-show-signs-of-fords-improved-quality.html
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: propertymanager on March 01, 2009, 08:41:45 am
I agree that Ford service SUCKS!!!  I recently had a coolant leak that was coming from the general area of the water pump.  I don't have the equipment to pressure test the cooling system, so I took it to my Ford dealer.  It turned out that the leak was coming from a v-shaped pipe just above the water pump.   It took them a couple of days to get the part in, so I took took the truck and drove it for the next couple of days, so that I could continue to work on my rentals.  Those few days were very warm for January here in Ohio, so I added water to the radiator as it leaked off. 

When the part arrived, I took the truck back to the dealership to have it installed.  I told them that the radiator had WATER in it and they needed to be sure to fill it with antifreeze.  They assured me that they would.  A few hours later, I got the truck back and everything seemed fine.  Being a very cynical landlord and not trusting anyone, when I arrived home for the day, I thought I better check the coolant to be sure that they correctly filled the radiator with antifreeze.  THEY HAD NOT!  The idiots only put in enough coolant to bring the coolant protection to + 15 degrees.  If I had been a typical consumer and not double checked the idiot's work, I would have had a broken block within a week, when the temperature got down to zero!!!

I called and talked to the service manager about the issue (thinking that he might want to know that his mechanics were incompetent).  His response was that I didn't pay $125 for a coolant "flush and fill".  I told him that I didn't want a flush and fill, I just expected that the mechanics would properly service the radiator after a $400 replacement of a part that should have cost $10!!!  At any rate, I was very disappointed in their service.   If I would not have checked the coolant myself, I would now have an engine that would have been ruined by the idiots at Ford!

Mike
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: fdjake on March 01, 2009, 08:47:52 am
Taking you car to a DEALER for service is a JOKE.  Does anyone NOT know this????

If it's under warranty you have to, but if it's a non warranty repair....YOU NEVER take you car to a new car dealer for service. 

There's no excuse for that Mike.....That definitley could have smoked your motor.  Now you know....

NO DEALER SERVICE UNLESS UNDER FULL WARRANTY!!!!!

A kid right out of trade school could have replaced that y-pipe for you for HALF what the dealer charged.

Here's another tip......Go down to your local Ford dealer and any after market parts store an open a COMMERCIAL ACCOUNT.....All you need is a business name and federal tax number.  That's the best reason to name your business something ambiguous like "Allied Enterprises"  You could be in ANY line of work with that name.  Need plumbing supplies????  Allied Enterprises.....Need parts for your boat??? Allied Enterprises.....Business rates for hotels...Allied Enterprises.... You'll get your car parts at wholesale, then you can have the trade shop kid install it for dirt...Sounds like he couldn't do any worse.
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: Rich_in_CT on March 01, 2009, 09:34:06 am
Man, you guys have some terrible Ford dealers in your area.  Of course bad dealers are not brand specific, they are out there in all flavors.  I've owned a few Fords, neither were under warranty at all when I bought them used.  But because of the EXCELLENT service at my local Ford dealer I opted to take my Explorers there.  They never beat me on cost and they were FAST.  Plus open 6 days a week 7am-9pm was nice.  One of my trucks had the rear main seal leaking and it was dumping tranny fluid everywhere.  I was foolish and kept topping off the fluid and driving it for a week  or so and toasted the torque converter too.  Is that what its called on automatics or is that on standards?  Auto shop was many years ago.  Anyway, long story short I dropped it off at 8:45pm one night and was called to say it was done at 10am the next day.  How's that for service?  Had another issue with an aftermarket keyless entry system that was installed in my other one, they figured it out for me and gave me a free workaround to the problem to save me money and only charged me 1/2 hr labor for the time they spent figuring it out.  Another time my a/c compressor locked up and caught fire (I put it out with a few bottles of water I luckily had in the car with me).  Brought it there and asked if they could bypass the a/c unit with a shorter belt to save me the $400 of replacing the a/c unit and they did it for me to save me some money.  I've always been happy with them and almost regret buying a GM product as I can't use them for service anymore.  Of course my 2003 Grand Am has only needed work once so I can't complain.  Bought the car in 2004 with 29k miles on it, around 100k miles the fuel pump went.  Total cost to repair was about $500 for the part, $200 worth of labor plus taxes for a total of about $750.  It's at 157k and beyond normal maintenance that's the only work I've ever had to do on it.  Girlfriend needed a car back in Nov, dealership where we went had a 2004 Grand Am with 42k miles, you better believe I made her buy it.  I know I'll probably never have to worry about repairs on it.
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: justin0419 on March 01, 2009, 09:19:31 pm
Yeah, you're right Rich - it's a torque converter on the automatics.  You've got a clutch, pressure plate, throwout bearings, etc. on standards.  I think you're lucky to have any dealer service location do a work-around fix for you.  Most of the time they only fix things by the book.  I generally use smaller shops for things I can't do myself.  The only reason I bought an extended warranty for my truck is because I know from selling auto parts in the past just how expensive diesel parts are.  Just a water pump can run $750 for the part only. 
I had a '96 Grand Am GT w/ the 3.1L V-6.  It was a good engine, but the rest of the car seemed to fall apart around it.  I left the keys in it for 6 months when I was in flight school in Corpus Christi, TX just hoping someone would take it...  I ended up selling it at a really good price to a girl who really needed a car - so I guess it all worked out.
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: phlemboy on March 02, 2009, 08:51:29 am
It's a hard to find a good mechanic that you can trust. I was lucky enough to find an "old timer" that ran super clean shop and he treated you well at a good price. He retired and luckily he sold his business to a young guy with the same values and competency as him. My honda never needed any repairs but he's the only one who has ever touched my vehicles. My experience with dealers has ALWAYS been horrible. I can sum it up in 2 words EXPENSIVE INCOMPETENCE.
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: rookieNYC on March 02, 2009, 03:19:06 pm
My honda never needed any repairs

Like I said earlier,buying the *right* car is an INVESTMENT...It saves you money buying right..Fords have been junk for decades and nothing has changed...Look at the stock price..

What I wonder is how many clueless people followed this thread and lost tons of $$$ on Ford stock..This pos stock is down %80 since this thread started and all I read is praise for this pos company...

Buy garbage and you get garbage..Better odds playing the horses than investing in this dead wood company..And for those who did invest through the BS hype this thread has created I feel sorry for you and your losses...


April 15,2008
You all know that I own a considerable amount of Ford stock.  I know...Laugh all you want!!!!  I'm gonna laugh too............all the way to the bank in 2010!!!

Stock price at this point was $7.50 a share....Closed down %6 today at $1.88....POS totally...Ford would have to pull a %300 gain to just get even at $7.50 a share again..I wouldn't count on 2010...
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: fdjake on March 02, 2009, 03:38:36 pm
Almost as good as YOU telling us how EASY investing in Real Estate was for you.

Anyone remember Rookies EASY MONEY posts from a year ago on his long distance residential properties.....How things have changed....

Now all we hear is you CRYING about your water bill, taxes, tenants, property managers, ect.  A little TOUGHER than you thought, huh???
Hey, look at the bright side.....You bought these POS properties in 2007 & 2008....They be a nice TAX DEDUCTION for you by the time you bailout and take your loses.

Guess the "Pro trader"  should have stuck with his REAL JOB..

Hey,  tell me one thing.....

How does a "pro trader" COMPLETELY MISS the BIGGEST DOWN TURN IN STOCK MARKET HISTORY????

Nice to see your still LONG.....good luck with that.
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: rookieNYC on March 02, 2009, 03:44:32 pm
Nice to see your still LONG.....good luck with that.

Who ever said Im still long?..I like the way you put words in my mouth...I also like the way you fail to post anymore imaginary trades since Propertymanager request *REAL TIME* executions..Do what you do best and BS your way out of your losses..

And yes I hate the RE business...I havent lost a dime and actually make money with my investment properties but yes I hate the business...I'd much rather do what I've been doing...HM loans against highly collateralized properties at a low LTV...

And a pro trader made over %11 in 2008 on a 7 figure account...Would you like to compare REAL TRADE DATA?...I didnt think so..Make up some more dream trades to correct the nut bashing you recieved the few times you told the truth..
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: fdjake on March 02, 2009, 03:49:04 pm
Still have those Q's buddy.....and still have till JUNE....We'll see who's laughing in a few months...

Meanwhile you keep WHINNING about real estate on a real estate forum.....BRILLANT!!

No trades to report....

I also don't need a roll of toilet paper to list my "baskets of sh*t"

7 figures?????  Yea.....just like all the money your making on the crap properties you bought thinking it was a gravy train.  A little tougher than you thought huh????

Personally I think it KILLS you that people here pay more attention to a FIREFIGHTERS investment ideas than YOURS!!!
Funny I have NEVER read anyone asking WHERE IS ROOKIE when YOU don't post for a while....

Maybe I'm not the only one SICK of listening to your WHINNING.


Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: rookieNYC on March 02, 2009, 03:53:18 pm
7 figures?????  Yea.....just like all the money your making on the crap properties you bought thinking it was a gravy train.  A little tougher than you thought huh??

I trust Mike propertymanager to be a nuetral person on this..I will gladly mail him my latest statement and I guarantee on this forum that my account is easily in that range..I would also wager 10k that you arent even worth half that in your account..LIQUID ...You are so full of sh*t its comical..And when these pikers listen to you spew that BS I have to laugh..You are as clueless as they come...

Now for the second time incase you couldnt read my first post..I hate the RE invest property business but I make money..And yes its a pig business...

And those imaginary QQQQ puts again...LOL...Send me the trade data so I can verify the trade..This was/is another imaginary trade...Dream on...Thtas also why you havent posted a real time trade..You cant make them up as you go anymore..Post the way I do or dont post about what you did in the past...I post REAL TRADE DATA...

Its whining,but then again you are just a firefighter...
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: fdjake on March 02, 2009, 03:57:45 pm
I will send a copy of them to Property manager. 

Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: rookieNYC on March 02, 2009, 04:01:47 pm
Everything deleted for lack of civility - PM
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: fdjake on March 02, 2009, 04:04:08 pm
Re-read my previous posts.......I entered into a short postion in the QQQQ at two separate dates.  The entire REASONING for that investment is all laid out there.  Along with the reason for buying the JUNE Q's.  (I believe I mentioned June giving me "time to be wrong")
NOTHING about that assessment has changed.....The market is FALLING...I'm still behind the 8 ball on the trade but I have almost 4 months for this market to simply continue to do what it's been doing (falling)  We could get a rally and I could lose...No doubt about that... You'll see it HERE when I sell.

That's it......I have bought Ford stock in addition to the ioptions I have.  But that was done prior.  Ford isn't something I plan on selling for YEARS... Everyone here knows when I got in on this......It's definitely gone down.....Again.....Who doesn't know this????

Believe it or not,  I've actually been BUYING REAL ESTATE......Did 3 deals since November.  1st was a burned out home I wholesaled,  Next was a 4 acre parcel of land,  last a condo that was wholesaled.  Just haven't had a lot of time.  I am NOT a trader.....I buy when I think things are out of whack.   You'll NEVER see me with a list of trades like some other guys here.  I give those guys credit.  Their out there DOING IT..It's just not my game.

Oh...Allagash has been trying to get up my way for a while now....

I'll be sure an show him how "BROKE BOY" lives. :biggrin :biggrin :biggrin
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: rookieNYC on March 02, 2009, 06:29:02 pm
I'll be sure an show him how "BROKE BOY" lives.   

You do that...I could care less about how you live..Nor would you believe how I live..So is there a point to all this?
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: fdjake on March 02, 2009, 06:51:40 pm
Deleted for lack of civility.
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: rookieNYC on March 02, 2009, 06:55:35 pm
Deleted for lack of civility.
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: propertymanager on March 02, 2009, 07:00:57 pm
OK, moderator Mike here asking you to please tone it down a little.   I consider you both friends and I think you both have a LOT to contribute to the forum.  Everyone on the forum enjoys both of your posts.  I have NO DOUBT that you both are for real and I don't need any statements to prove that.  If you do send your statements to me, please provide the ID and password for your trading accounts, I might need the extra money for the DEPRESSION!  LOL!

Now, for the trades, you both have posted your stock trades.  RookieNYC is providing the actual trading records as he trades.  FDJake posted the QQQQ puts and Ford positions he has taken.  Obviously, both are upside down right now, so I'm pretty sure he isn't lying about that.

I've been trading for over 10 years (including a 6 figure account) and have been in the real estate business.  The real estate business is right for me, but if it's not ok for RookieNYC, that's fine.  I think we're all in our businesses to make money and one way is as good as another as far as I'm concerned.  The same is true with FDJake's speculative stock positions.  If he ends up being right (and in the right amount of time), he will make a fantastic return and I admit that I don't have the guts to put tens of thousands of dollars at risk on these trades.  I posted my Ford trades in real time and almost got a double on it (about $900 profit), which although it wasn't a fortune, was fun for me.

I could ramble on and on, but the point is that we're all friends here, so PLEASE let's try to act like it!

Thanks,

Mike  
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: furnishedowner on March 03, 2009, 08:08:12 pm
Propertymanager,

Darn, it was just starting to get fun!  Those 2 guys were out in the cyberspace parking lot with their fists up!  YAHOO, FIGHT FIGHT FIGHT!

Hey, you two--Rookie and FDJake, everyone enjoys your posts. Don't waste all that energy on each other. There are plenty of us others you can educate.

Furnishedowner
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: allagash on March 05, 2009, 10:46:29 am
caught the whole "food fight"....

funny thing is....both have great strategies....just completely different time horizons, (minutes vs. years).

-Mike
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: Rich_in_CT on March 05, 2009, 10:49:44 am
caught the whole "food fight"....

funny thing is....both have great strategies....just completely different time horizons, (minutes vs. years).

-Mike
Most of us couldn't do the minutes thing, it's a viable strategy just not for majority.  As far as I'm concerned the potential to make a few hundred percent over 2-3 years is pretty damn good and for that reason an undervalued stock with a decent upside over that time frame is perfect for me.
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: REI_Chris on March 05, 2009, 12:10:43 pm
caught the whole "food fight"....

funny thing is....both have great strategies....just completely different time horizons, (minutes vs. years).

-Mike
Most of us couldn't do the minutes thing, it's a viable strategy just not for majority.  As far as I'm concerned the potential to make a few hundred percent over 2-3 years is pretty damn good and for that reason an undervalued stock with a decent upside over that time frame is perfect for me.

On the flipside to that, what makes you 'think' a stock is going up a few hundred percent in those 2-3 years? When you day trade, you have your profits locked in. If you don't profit from a trade, you move on. You get to sleep at night. You won't make 100% off of a single trade--although I have made +100% on a trade intraday with options, it isn't typical--but, your small gains add up over time and consistency is key. It takes more work than the 'set it and forget it' method, but it works for many.
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: allagash on March 05, 2009, 12:24:53 pm
Well put Chris...couldn't have said it better myself.

Compounding....basket trades for managing a larger and larger sum....

Couldn't get me to go back to buy and hope.

-Mike

Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: Rich_in_CT on March 05, 2009, 12:29:17 pm
How many normal people that aren't professional traders can really day trade properly?  If it was super easy everyone would be rich.  Plus the bulk of us can't sit in front of our computers looking for small trends to buy and sell a few hours later on.  Sure we can setup automatic execution of trades with limits but what happens if you buy XYZ at $5, set a trade to dump it at $6 and it plummets to $2 while you are busy with your job, family, etc.  

Making a trade based on how Ford has done over time, historically what has happened after previous recessions, the fact that they have a bunch of good cars coming out, the quality of the current CEO, etc is what makes this stock look appealing.  It's a common sense trade...not a watching the ticker for a blip one way or the other trying to guess the direction for 2 hrs.  Ford is a no-brainer, providing the company doesn't go out of business there is no way this stock won't go from its current level of ~$2 to $4.  And that is me being conservative, I think it will be much more.  Point I'm trying to make is even with a conservative figure its 100% up in a short time frame.  If that money was parked in a mutual fund would it do that well?  Hell no, especially if the fund is stupid and invests in Madoff/Standford type schemes.  And you can't tell me that didn't happen....a lot.
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: Rich_in_CT on March 05, 2009, 02:31:50 pm
Some good reading about debt restructuring:  http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1883276,00.html

I think with a little bit of restructuring and a helping hand from Uncle Sam they will get through this just fine and come out on the other side stronger than ever.
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: REI_Chris on March 05, 2009, 03:00:38 pm
How many normal people that aren't professional traders can really day trade properly?  If it was super easy everyone would be rich.  Plus the bulk of us can't sit in front of our computers looking for small trends to buy and sell a few hours later on.  Sure we can setup automatic execution of trades with limits but what happens if you buy XYZ at $5, set a trade to dump it at $6 and it plummets to $2 while you are busy with your job, family, etc.  

Making a trade based on how Ford has done over time, historically what has happened after previous recessions, the fact that they have a bunch of good cars coming out, the quality of the current CEO, etc is what makes this stock look appealing.  It's a common sense trade...not a watching the ticker for a blip one way or the other trying to guess the direction for 2 hrs.  Ford is a no-brainer, providing the company doesn't go out of business there is no way this stock won't go from its current level of ~$2 to $4.  And that is me being conservative, I think it will be much more.  Point I'm trying to make is even with a conservative figure its 100% up in a short time frame.  If that money was parked in a mutual fund would it do that well?  Hell no, especially if the fund is stupid and invests in Madoff/Standford type schemes.  And you can't tell me that didn't happen....a lot.

What's your idea of a 'short' time frame? Time is money as you are well aware. There are PLENTY better companies out there that WON'T go bankrupt to get long with. I'm not saying the risk/ reward isn't worth it, but it certainly isn't a no-brainer and certainly isn't a guarantee by any stretch.
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: Rich_in_CT on March 05, 2009, 08:36:14 pm
Jake, Rookie.......enough. 

If it isn't specifically relating to investing in Ford please leave it at the door.  The smack talk and name calling is really getting old and does not teach anyone anything.  Anything that has to be read to get to the real info is a waste of time.
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: Rich_in_CT on March 06, 2009, 11:35:00 am
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/09_11/b4123038630999.htm
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: Rich_in_CT on March 26, 2009, 12:56:37 pm
This car is going to bring about the Ford revolution in the US:  http://www.fordvehicles.com/2011fiesta/

Good news for Ford in the quest to reduce debt:  http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/djf500/200903230951DOWJONESDJONLINE000304_FORTUNE5.htm
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: Rich_in_CT on April 01, 2009, 12:38:07 pm
I'm down on F so far but hanging in there.
Title: Re: Ford increases Focus production by 30% to meet demand...IT'S STARTING..BOY'S!!!
Post by: fdjake on April 23, 2009, 02:06:35 pm
11/17/2008........Goodyear...........20,000 shares purchased at $5.44/share!!!

You missed this one GENIUS.

GOODYEAR TODAY...................$9.80

Like I said.....

Stick with MORTGAGES........It's a LOT easier.